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Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    While I'm more or less resigned to not hoping for a wintry December, 2017 is still consistently showing up as the strongest sea surface temperature analog for this year. Between this and ongoing rumours of a January SSW in the works, I'm still hopeful for some February fireworks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    :) I see what you did there
    :confused: I don't get it :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Good discussion here on possible pattern scenarios for this coming Winter over 'Urope'.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Loughc wrote: »
    I can't remember one winter forecast in the past 10 years that was wrong.

    Don't do it to yourself man... it's the hope that kills ya.

    Its funny you should say that as i cant remember an accurate one


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Sure when they give the same winter forecast every year for the last 10 years they eventually get it right anyway...


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    bazlers wrote: »
    Its funny you should say that as i cant remember an accurate one

    M.T.'s have been on the money every year. I'm talking about proper weather enthusiasts not John the postman or Met Eireann or the Sun newspaper.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    ps2png-gorax-blue-008-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-tSNY_2.png.24348f4be4398bf3da2a6a017b787367.png

    A bit different to this time last year! Could we be on the cusp of something decent?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    ps2png-gorax-blue-008-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-tSNY_2.png.24348f4be4398bf3da2a6a017b787367.png

    A bit different to this time last year! Could we be on the cusp of something decent?
    What is this a chart of?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,099 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Intriguing
    ECM1-240.GIF?24-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Loughc wrote: »
    M.T.'s have been on the money every year. I'm talking about proper weather enthusiasts not John the postman or Met Eireann or the Sun newspaper.

    No not even the great MT gets it right all the time im afraid.
    As good if not better than anything ive seen though.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Intriguing
    ECM1-240.GIF?24-0

    Looks like air sourced from a mild continental Europe to me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,594 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    A frosty one tomorrow night. I always like to see the frost coming. It gives hope.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    A frosty one tomorrow night. I always like to see the frost coming. It gives hope.

    It’s the hope that kills you.

    Abandon all hope ye that enter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    The GFS 18z brings in -6c uppers from the east on December 2nd, I'm not sure if that's good enough at this time of year due to the modification of the air mass by the warm sea but I imagine it's enough to bring wintry showers. Still out in FI of course.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The pub run is now showing the development of a Scandi high beginning within the reliable timeframe. Certainly some more interesting charts than we've had over the last few winters since The Beast...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    The pub run is now showing the development of a Scandi high beginning within the reliable timeframe. Certainly some more interesting charts than we've had over the last few winters since The Beast...

    It’s definitely improving alright as the runs go, but the gate to the garden path is still wide open at this point.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    interesting charts alright but still some wide swings from one run to another such as this mornings and this evenings ECM being quite different, however it does appear the Atlantic may settle down for a while and we can look forward to some frosty nights in the short term.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 837 ✭✭✭John O.Groats


    Gonzo wrote: »
    interesting charts alright but still some wide swings from one run to another such as this mornings and this evenings ECM being quite different, however it does appear the Atlantic may settle down for a while and we can look forward to some frosty nights in the short term.

    So no prospect of anything like a repeat of the Nov/Dec 2010 big freeze a decade on from that unforgettable period of weather then?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Gonzo wrote: »
    interesting charts alright but still some wide swings from one run to another such as this mornings and this evenings ECM being quite different, however it does appear the Atlantic may settle down for a while and we can look forward to some frosty nights in the short term.

    Ecm even with the big swings between runs is trending Colder in the runs.
    It just can't decide where it wants the cold though


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    So no prospect of anything like a repeat of the Nov/Dec 2010 big freeze a decade on from that unforgettable period of weather then?

    No, unlikely. However, at least a chance of some more seasonal, drier, crisp weather for a while. After that, past ten days time, you can cherry pick the charts for what you want. Unreliable.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    So no prospect of anything like a repeat of the Nov/Dec 2010 big freeze a decade on from that unforgettable period of weather then?

    No absolutely no chance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Very little chance of Nov/Dec 2010 ever being repeated in our lifetimes never mind the coming weeks

    The world is 10 years warmer. Also our weather appears to have got more mobile in the past few years so even a spell of -5c will quickly be shoved away by slightly milder Northwesterlies or the boring Southwesterlies of the past 5 Winters


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Nov /dec 2010 was probably a once in a lifetime spell. Sure since then we have had only one cold spell of note - the beast from the east in 2018 and even that was right at the very end of winter as extreme as it was.
    Perhaps that's the way things have become where decent cold spells are getting very rare but when they happen they will be on the extreme side.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    very little chance of a December 2010 event, at best we may see some frosty nights, maybe a few wintry showers in the north and then a return to milder conditions most likely in the second half of December. The ground is saturated here so we could really do with a few weeks of dry weather.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    Lovely clear morning here. I presume the deluges will be back tpomorrow?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It looks like it is going to get cold and dry, but to get all the pieces in place for something really wintry you need a low in the med and that high out west to take proper hold in Greenland. Unfortunately, it look as if on current guidance that there is still too much residual energy around Greenland for that to happen
    It's easy to say there is very little chance of a repeat of 2010 since it was likely a once in a lifetime event, but the hemisphere profile is a lot more favourable than this time last year, it would just take a few tweaks for snowy cold to come here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,801 ✭✭✭snowgal


    Im ever the optimist, even against the charts, so Im hoping for a abit of the white gold, it is 2020 after all, anything can happen! :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The fact December 2010 is getting mentioned as a comparison is completely unwarranted. As others have touted, that was a once in a lifetime event and it is likely we will not see a period as severely cold as that in Ireland any time soon. Met É have said themselves that it was probably the most extreme sustained cold spell in Ireland on record (which takes into account cold spells such as 1878, 1881, 1895, 1917, 1947 and 1963) whilst 1947 and 1963 were longer but not quite to the depths of cold as late 2010.

    This looks more like late November/early December 2016 (if one wants to make a recent comparison) before the mild weather returned for the rest of the winter. We had a settled and frosty spell at that time caused by high pressure either centred over us or in the Sceuro region between Scandinavia and central Europe and ridging towards us. Similar occurring this time around.

    We also had a couple of frosts to end November and to start December last year... then the impending 'Polar Vortex of Doom' dominated right until mid-March.

    I'll be giving an update in the stratosphere watch thread later or soon but looks like the stratospheric polar vortex continues to develop around 2 standard deviations above average meaning stronger than normal zonal mean zonal winds in the stratosphere which should increase the risk of stormy and mild weather. However, at the moment and for the foreseeable future, it looks like we have a disconnection between the strat and trop so that is partly how we're getting this cool and settled weather.

    SST anomalies continue to not look great for the 8th year in a row with no evidence of a North Atlantic tripole pattern to favour a sustained -NAO.

    La Niña has stalled recently and the ENSO region has actually warmed up somewhat to solidly moderate levels. But of course, we've seen this November that there has been a lack of Niña footprint - i.e. mid-Atlantic ridge which is typically seen in Nov/Dec during La Niña events. This can be blamed on the tropics where convection activity has made patterns more indicative of El Niño than La Niña. This is set to change very soon according to model forecasts and gives an increased risk of blocking retrogressing to higher latitudes but as ever, that is not a given.. as I said, other things like SST anomalies are not great.

    There's always "something" isn't there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    The fact December 2010 is getting mentioned as a comparison is completely unwarranted. As others have touted, that was a once in a lifetime event and it is likely we will not see a period as severely cold as that in Ireland any time soon. Met É have said themselves that it was probably the most extreme sustained cold spell in Ireland on record (which takes into account cold spells such as 1878, 1881, 1895, 1917, 1947 and 1963) whilst 1947 and 1963 were longer but not quite to the depths of cold as late 2010.

    We need a time machine! Although many people would probably prefer to jump forward than go back to December 2010:P It's a pity you are not doing a winter forecast this year, it would be interesting to read as to how you see the winter progressing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    I think we might need Icelandic volcano to give us another 2010


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Looks like High Pressure will dominate for the next 7 days. It will be dry, cold and frosty during the night with fog in places. HP is trying to retrograde over Greenland if that happens chances of a north or north easterly is possible but i don't think this will happen due to a tropical disturbance around Bermuda which will nudge the HP either to our west or over Ireland bringing in westerly winds. Looking further down the analogue and the rest of the winter my predictions are that our weather will be dominated with Low pressure piling in from the west with colder interlude. It will be fairly zonal for most of this winter and it could get very stormy around end of December into the new year. Chances of a cold and snowy period could happen around end of January into February. Let's see how this pans out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Completely on a hunch but I am convinced we will see snow towards second half of December. Can just feel it coming, been such a weird weather year. Amazing from March to early June, crap summer and then very pleasant in September and part of a October. November relatively dry and just have a feeling as lockdown lifts we will get some snow. Something decent has to come out of this year.

    BELIEVE :-)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,594 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Nice bit of frost on the grass tonight. Jack is about.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Frosty in North Kildare since not long after 17:00.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 761 ✭✭✭Agent_47


    Completely on a hunch but I am convinced we will see snow towards second half of December. Can just feel it coming, been such a weird weather year. Amazing from March to early June, crap summer and then very pleasant in September and part of a October. November relatively dry and just have a feeling as lockdown lifts we will get some snow. Something decent has to come out of this year.

    BELIEVE :-)

    Think chances of having a 3rd lockdown are more certain than snow in December


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    Agent_47 wrote: »
    Think chances of having a 3rd lockdown are more certain than snow in December
    Wouldn't really consider this a second lock down, more just increased restrictions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    MoBIIci.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Completely on a hunch but I am convinced we will see snow towards second half of December. Can just feel it coming, been such a weird weather year. Amazing from March to early June, crap summer and then very pleasant in September and part of a October. November relatively dry and just have a feeling as lockdown lifts we will get some snow. Something decent has to come out of this year.

    BELIEVE :-)

    Have a look at " Life below Zero" on youtube. SNOW from start to finish. totally addictive and enthralling. Sheer snow . Being lived in fully.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    There is a fair amount of chatter about potential stratospheric disruption beginning to appear towards the tail end of FI runs in both the ECM and GFS ensembles. Not enough yet in my view to warrant setting up a dedicated stratosphere thread (how many times in recent years have warmings appeared in FI only to continually hover around the +300h mark for days and never move closer to reality) but it's definitely something to keep an eye on - there seems to be a growing feeling that a PV split in January may eventually be on the cards.

    Of course, even if this does happen, as we saw two winters ago, it's possible to have a stratospheric split which fails to downwell quickly enough to impact our weather before Spring begins. Indeed, I could never shake the feeling that the utterly crappy -NAO setup we had for most of Spring and Summer in 2019 may have been influenced by the extremely slow downwelling of that winter's PV split, although I realise this is unlikely to have had an impact lasting for nearly as long as the horrendous omega block we ended up on the wrong side of that summer. Definitely couldn't help feeling that the late Spring dreariness might have been related, however.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I already set up the stratosphere watch thread hatrickpatrick :D

    Looks like a standard minor warming to me that we see a few of every winter pretty much.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I already set up the stratosphere watch thread hatrickpatrick :D

    Looks like a standard minor warming to me that we see a few of every winter pretty much.

    Yeah, Ventrice doesn't make much of it either. Although is there any chance that all the blocking in the troposphere could have a significant effect on the stratosphere in the longer term, or is this warming over Siberia the best we can hope for. Do you think a major warming could happen later this winter?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Stat warming is false hope for cold lovers. Every year around this time it is the same story. It is pretty much like the concept that the 'jet stream' dictates large scale weather patterns, when in reality it is the large scale weather patterns that dictate the position of the jet stream. Winter is coming, and that will be the most important determiner of all as to whether we got a good cold, snowy spell or not.

    I think it is amusing though that I observed more frosty mornings in September than I have done in Oct/Nov combined.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    I hear there's s big snowstorm on the way.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    I hear there's s big snowstorm on the way.....

    Good morning all.

    No but seriously I'm feeling quite fatalist about this winter already - a few winters ago we always still had the element of "oh well we don't even know how the weather will play out beyond next week, let's see what happens".

    Now we've had a such a consistent string of back to back poor winters that we have a good idea how they will shape up in advance - the conditions, the patterns, particularly how the polar vortex behaves etc. And this year predictably seems to be heading that way once again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Great to see first big frost arriving here in Dublin just before winter officially kicks in


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    WTF? We had an incredible winter as recently as 2018! Like over a metre of snow in places. The negativity on here never seizes to amaze me. Winter starts next week
    Good morning all.

    No but seriously I'm feeling quite fatalist about this winter already - a few winters ago we always still had the element of "oh well we don't even know how the weather will play out beyond next week, let's see what happens".

    Now we've had a such a consistent string of back to back poor winters that we have a good idea how they will shape up in advance - the conditions, the patterns, particularly how the polar vortex behaves etc. And this year predictably seems to be heading that way once again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    at this stage, I'll be happy if we just get a solid 2 weeks of cold clear weather


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    Another brilliant morning here in wexford. Very cold, but nice and sunny :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    first frost of the season here in Meath, great to see it at last.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    WTF? We had an incredible winter as recently as 2018! Like over a metre of snow in places. The negativity on here never seizes to amaze me. Winter starts next week

    That incredible Winter was 2 days of heavy snow. The rest of all the Winter was benign


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