Property Market 2018

tobsey · 23-11-2018 12:52pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

That's a 20 percent growth, or 5 percent a year. That's probably on the higher side of what would be normal but in my opinion the market will settle to a steady 3% growth year on year, with more expensive areas slowing a bit. This will radiate out from D4 etc as people are pushed further out.

It's even less than 5%, 4.66% actually. I know it's a more than the 3% you mention which seems like a reasonable amount, but it's not massive either.

Sleepy · 23-11-2018 1:32pm

matsy1 wrote: »

House prices really haven't gone up that much. I bought a house in 2014 for €250k in Dublin, in 4 year's it has maybe gone up €50k. A jump but nothing out of control. I do think that if interest rates go up, a lot of people will try downgrade from their 400k homes, those who can barely afford as it is.

Are you sure you're not undervaluing your property?

We bought in North County Dublin in Aug 2016 for 230k. The last house on our road sold for 310k in September and another is apparently sale agreed at 325k.

That'd be 34.7% or a 41.3% increase over the two years.

Now, granted, we bought the worst house on a good road and have put approx 25k and hundreds of hours of DIY into it, but even if you factor that 25k into the calculations it'd still be a 23.9 to 30.4% increase over those 2 years (or even a bit higher as ours is extended to a 4 bed whereas the other two were an unextended 2 bed and a smaller extended 3 bed respectively)

Mickiemcfist · 23-11-2018 1:33pm

tobsey wrote: »

It's even less than 5%, 4.66% actually. I know it's a more than the 3% you mention which seems like a reasonable amount, but it's not massive either.

Must have overpaid in 2014, or something has happened that the area/house has become undesirable, as the anecdotal growth rates are significantly below any other house in Dublin.

JDD · 23-11-2018 4:43pm

My old neighbours bought their house in Booterstown for €280k at the bottom of the market in 2012. And it was in really good nick, though they've converted the attic into a fourth bedroom since, which probably cost around €25k. The last similar house to go on sale in the same estate (also with a converted attic room) sold for €610k. So that's more or less a 100% increase in price. That being said, I think the houses were undervalued in 2012, and are overvalued now, but it's an enormous increase no matter what way you cut it.

snotboogie · 23-11-2018 5:33pm

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

Nor will any large amount of multinationals pull out of Ireland. We are a superb country to do business in, people love moving to and living here and the top brass from the states love to visit. Yes they might move manufacturing and contract from time to time but its highly unlikely they would actually close up shop
Look at Dell - they let go 2000 in limerick years ago from manufacturing but now they have over 5000 staff in ireland

That’s more to do with the EMC group purchase than deliberate expansion in Ireland. EMC, VCE, VMware all have a massive presence here and have all fallen under the Dell umbrella

matsy1 · 23-11-2018 7:16pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

That's a 20 percent growth, or 5 percent a year. That's probably on the higher side of what would be normal but in my opinion the market will settle to a steady 3% growth year on year, with more expensive areas slowing a bit. This will radiate out from D4 etc as people are pushed further out.

True but that's coming out of a recession. I do think house prices in Dublin are pretty high. But a couple who's combined earnings are in and around 80k can afford to live in a decent enough house in Dublin if they can somehow save for the deposit.

I'd be one of the first on the new ladder, my small equity will pay most of the deposit on the next house and so on with even 3% growth. Unfortunately getting onto the first step of the ladder is the problem, or being stuck up a fake ladder is another.

It seems the market has completely settled now, maybe dreams of recession or Brexit fears but the bidding wars of the past year have stalled and offers below asking prices are being accepted again.

KevinCavan · 23-11-2018 11:57pm

I can see a three bed in Clonsilla reaching €2,000,000 in value. There is no other way. House prices can’t fall. There can’t be any other way, the only way is up.

beauf · 24-11-2018 12:06am

There are a good few houses of 2m and morein Dublin 15. If you have been tracking their prices they have dropped 50% and gained some of it back. But not yet reached peak. They seem to be effected more than less expensive houses.

24-11-2018 12:17am

I think some folks my have misunderstood the previous points about FDI.

Nobody need worry about ALL the multinationals pulling out of Ireland, that won't happen.

What's worrying is that the government takes in a large amount of tax from a very small number of these companies. If some of these few have a problem it will hit the tax intake fast.

Good article here.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/department-warns-that-corporation-tax-is-a-risk-1.3349751?mode=amp

"The report cautioned, however, that nearly two-thirds of tax receipts came from a small number of firms paying in excess of €10 million annually and that almost 40 per cent of total revenue could be linked to just 10 companies."

matsy1 · 24-11-2018 12:21am

KevinCavan wrote: »

I can see a three bed in Clonsilla reaching €2,000,000 in value. There is no other way. House prices can’t fall. There can’t be any other way, the only way is up.

Will a Mars bar cost a grand? They've been rising in price for as long as I can remember, although an out of date or damaged Mars bar can be bought at a knocked down price.

24-11-2018 12:22am

matsy1 wrote: »

Will a Mars bar cost a grand? They've been rising in price for as long as I can remember, although an out of date or damaged Mars bar can be bought at a knocked down price.

They keep getting smaller too!

matsy1 · 24-11-2018 12:45am

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Must have overpaid in 2014, or something has happened that the area/house has become undesirable, as the anecdotal growth rates are significantly below any other house in Dublin.

At this moment in time, according to the estate agents from selling and buying, there's a real slow down in the market, a good time for ftbs id say. The bidding wars of the past couple of years have slowed down(obviously some exceptions). Houses in good areas on the market for months, seller's refusing to let go for lower offers.

I probably overpaid by 25k in 2014, bidding wars on every property I viewed. This time estate agents are reluctantly telling me that the asking price will be accepted. And my property that I fully expected to make at least 80k-90k(looking at neighbours etc ) is looking likely to be 50k or hopefully 60k.

This could all change in January. Im talking about for the past couple of months to present.

Glenbhoy · 24-11-2018 1:26am

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Must have overpaid in 2014, or something has happened that the area/house has become undesirable, as the anecdotal growth rates are significantly below any other house in Dublin.

Houses (three within a few months) round my way sold for 450k in 2014, almost identical (condition too) on market presently for 525k having dropped from 595k. Prices have risen, but not all boats have caught the same wave.

bri007 · 24-11-2018 1:57am

Houses out my way we’re selling for €390-€410k January-March this year, 2 sold across the road from me.

My friend and his partner just went sale agreed on a house 5 doors down from my parents house, on the market for €420k went sale agreed for €375k after being reduced twice. Lovely house all mod cons done to it.

Prices are going below asking in some areas it appears, we are looking at buying as well, although we haven’t got that big of a budget so we are looking in different areas but we are getting similar scenarios.

mkdon · 24-11-2018 3:44am

bri007 wrote: »

Houses out my way we’re selling for €390-€410k January-March this year, 2 sold across the road from me.

My friend and his partner just went sale agreed on a house 5 doors down from my parents house, on the market for €420k went sale agreed for €375k after being reduced twice. Lovely house all mod cons done to it.

Prices are going below asking in some areas it appears, we are looking at buying as well, although we haven’t got that big of a budget so we are looking in different areas but we are getting similar scenarios.

where bouts

Zenify · 24-11-2018 9:53am

Over the last 3 years I've been looking at second hand properties in south Dublin and I've constantly been surprised with asking and selling prices of properties. In the last 3 months that surprise has changed from how high to how low (only by comparing to the start of the year). I haven't seen the selling prices for these properties yet just the asking prices. What was late 400s in January/Feb is now low 400k.

KevinCavan · 24-11-2018 1:22pm

Zenify wrote: »

Over the last 3 years I've been looking at second hand properties in south Dublin and I've constantly been surprised with asking and selling prices of properties. In the last 3 months that surprise has changed from how high to how low (only by comparing to the start of the year). I haven't seen the selling prices for these properties yet just the asking prices. What was late 400s in January/Feb is now low 400k.

Careful you’ll get attacked here for saying anything but house prices are going up. People who are paying €2000 a month of a mortgage don’t like such comments.

Cyrus · 24-11-2018 1:51pm

KevinCavan wrote: »

Careful you’ll get attacked here for saying anything but house prices are going up. People who are paying €2000 a month of a mortgage don’t like such comments.

Asking prices are irrelevant there is data showing what houses are selling for

Zenify · 24-11-2018 2:01pm

I think there is a lot of vested interest about property news, not only on boards but many forms of media. KevinCavan, I dont think it's the mortgage owners but I could be wrong. A mortgages of €2,000 is still less than rent and I dont see prices coming down faster than the cost they would have spent on rent in the long term.

I honestly hate any article from a vested interest being passed off as an independent report. Davy is the biggest example of this, they are one of Irelands largest property investors and always do the reports. They have 1.5 billion invested in Irish property. Of course they are going to say prices are going to go up.

I honestly don't know what could happen in 2019 but I am excited to see. We could see property rises again in January due to exceptions back on the table, or banks could take the opposite approach and get more careful due to prices cooling off. Either way I'm excited to see what happens.

beauf · 24-11-2018 2:06pm

KevinCavan wrote: »

Careful you’ll get attacked here for saying anything but house prices are going up. People who are paying €2000 a month of a mortgage don’t like such comments.

Anyone with a mortgage won't care it makes no difference to them. They are already committed. The only people who care are those selling and buying.

smurgen · 24-11-2018 2:09pm

Stock market gains for 2018 wiped out and U.S banks forecasting a decline next year. The correction is beginning.

Zenify · 24-11-2018 2:10pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Asking prices are irrelevant there is data showing what houses are selling for

That data is from a few months ago and irrelevant to what the property market is doing today. It was mentioned that the selling price wasnt available with the data in the previous post.

Sarn · 24-11-2018 2:45pm

Speaking for where we live in Dublin. At the start of the year up to June, house prices in our area were averaging €510-525k. Four houses have since gone sale agreed and sold over the course of the summer, taking two to four weeks to go sold. From the PPR they all went for between €570 and €585k, this was after the asking prices were reduced and subsequently exceeded. These houses were all comparable in condition, although the aspect and location were not as good. Another two have recently sold and they appear to have sold for a similar price.

It really depends on the segment and the area the houses are in. I don’t doubt that some vendors have gotten carried away with their asking and have had to row back on prices.

KevinCavan · 24-11-2018 2:49pm

There’s unlikely to be any “correction” in the market in 2019, but I think it’s foolhardy the way some expect that we’ll never have s fall in house prices again. There will be a slow down in the property market, but not for about 3 years I estimate.

sightband · 24-11-2018 3:18pm

KevinCavan wrote: »

There’s unlikely to be any “correction” in the market in 2019, but I think it’s foolhardy the way some expect that we’ll never have s fall in house prices again. There will be a slow down in the property market, but not for about 3 years I estimate.

Why 3 years?

Anecdotal stuff here, but this is my experience. I got speaking to my kids friends dad who is a small time developer/builder in UK market...he buys houses with a partner and they renovate and flip the properties for between 10%-15% profit. They usually have about 5 properties on the go. I asked why he didn’t do the same here as he works away from family Monday-Friday. He said he wouldn’t touch the Irish market as it’s far too turbulent and unpredictable citing bidding in particular. He said when it comes down to the wire people in UK bid in the hundreds, here you are lucky if it’s in the low thousands. Low and behold this came to fruition in my case...house asking was 465k, came down to the wire at 495k which was our bid and only us and another bidder and then they come back with a 520k counter bid. We were gone at anything over 500k. Agent showed me the log book as I requested and was left itching my head telling them they could inform the other person they just blew the guts of 18k on nothing. yes they got the house but it is this type of stupidity that has our market in such turmoil. Too many idiots with money, or banks money.

Cyrus · 24-11-2018 4:00pm

Zenify wrote: »

That data is from a few months ago and irrelevant to what the property market is doing today. It was mentioned that the selling price wasnt available with the data in the previous post.

The only reliable guide we have on property prices is what they are actually selling for

All else is conjecture, anecdotes and speculation.

KevinCavan · 24-11-2018 4:17pm

sightband wrote: »

Why 3 years?

Anecdotal stuff here, but this is my experience. I got speaking to my kids friends dad who is a small time developer/builder in UK market...he buys houses with a partner and they renovate and flip the properties for between 10%-15% profit. They usually have about 5 properties on the go. I asked why he didn’t do the same here as he works away from family Monday-Friday. He said he wouldn’t touch the Irish market as it’s far too turbulent and unpredictable citing bidding in particular. He said when it comes down to the wire people in UK bid in the hundreds, here you are lucky if it’s in the low thousands. Low and behold this came to fruition in my case...house asking was 465k, came down to the wire at 495k which was our bid and only us and another bidder and then they come back with a 520k counter bid. We were gone at anything over 500k. Agent showed me the log book as I requested and was left itching my head telling them they could inform the other person they just blew the guts of 18k on nothing. yes they got the house but it is this type of stupidity that has our market in such turmoil. Too many idiots with money, or banks money.

I think that the houses can’t keep rising beyond another 3 years. The madness will eventually subside when prices reach certain levels

Bluefoam · 24-11-2018 4:48pm

When the market starts to show real signs of slowing, the central bank will alter the rules to allow easier access to funds... At the moment the market is actually being held back artificially.

There's plenty of people on here moaning that houses are too expensive. But they are only too expensive for those who cannot afford them... Those who can afford are buying property and not moaning about the market.

Bluefoam · 24-11-2018 4:51pm

sightband wrote: »

KevinCavan wrote: »

There’s unlikely to be any “correction” in the market in 2019, but I think it’s foolhardy the way some expect that we’ll never have s fall in house prices again. There will be a slow down in the property market, but not for about 3 years I estimate.

Why 3 years?

Anecdotal stuff here, but this is my experience. I got speaking to my kids friends dad who is a small time developer/builder in UK market...he buys houses with a partner and they renovate and flip the properties for between 10%-15% profit. They usually have about 5 properties on the go. I asked why he didn’t do the same here as he works away from family Monday-Friday. He said he wouldn’t touch the Irish market as it’s far too turbulent and unpredictable citing bidding in particular. He said when it comes down to the wire people in UK bid in the hundreds, here you are lucky if it’s in the low thousands. Low and behold this came to fruition in my case...house asking was 465k, came down to the wire at 495k which was our bid and only us and another bidder and then they come back with a 520k counter bid. We were gone at anything over 500k. Agent showed me the log book as I requested and was left itching my head telling them they could inform the other person they just blew the guts of 18k on nothing. yes they got the house but it is this type of stupidity that has our market in such turmoil. Too many idiots with money, or banks money.

There were probably just pissed of that another bidder was slowing down the sale by bidding in (what they may consider) ridiculously low increments. They bought the property at a price that they considered value and obviously made a clear statement that they would clean the floor with your bid...

sightband · 24-11-2018 5:05pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

There were probably just pissed of that another bidder was slowing down the sale by bidding in (what they may consider) ridiculously low increments. They bought the property at a price that they considered value and obviously made a clear statement that they would clean the floor with your bid...

And that statement cost them about €18k

Bluefoam · 24-11-2018 5:36pm

sightband wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

There were probably just pissed of that another bidder was slowing down the sale by bidding in (what they may consider) ridiculously low increments. They bought the property at a price that they considered value and obviously made a clear statement that they would clean the floor with your bid...

And that statement cost them about €18k

Maybe they saw the value in the move... They don't know how much you have to spend... They may also have been speculating on how much the vendor was willing to take for the property and may have had information to support their offer. Anyway, they were able to afford the property and you weren't. I recently made offers on two separate properties at the asking price and was the only bidder. I was informed that the vendors would be offended by my paultry offers and that they would not be put forward to the sellers.

sightband · 24-11-2018 5:57pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Maybe they saw the value in the move...

Or maybe they are just f*cking thick.

Bluefoam wrote: »

I recently made offers on two separate properties at the asking price and was the only bidder. I was informed that the vendors would be offended by my paultry offers and that they would not be put forward to the sellers.

And it is at this point that you responded by saying they would be offended by your paltry offer how when it is their asking price...and the agent said what?

Bluefoam · 24-11-2018 6:05pm

I don't really care what silly games they are playing or how much money they want.... I did end up making an offer that I was happy with, on a property I like very much, it is within my capacity to repay... The others I bid on no longer play on my conscience... Don't be upset that someone outbid you, move forward and find the house for you.

alwald · 24-11-2018 6:09pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

When the market starts to show real signs of slowing, the central bank will alter the rules to allow easier access to funds.

Highly unlikely as this is an ECB rule and it was implemented for a reason, which is to avoid the collapse of banks due to some crazy lending.

Bluefoam · 24-11-2018 6:12pm

alwald wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

When the market starts to show real signs of slowing, the central bank will alter the rules to allow easier access to funds.

Highly unlikely as this is an ECB rule and it was implemented for a reason, which is to avoid the collapse of banks due to some crazy lending.

Oh, I didn't realise it was implemented across Europe, I thought the rules here only applied to the Irish market...

sightband · 24-11-2018 6:18pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

I don't really care what silly games they are playing or how much money they want....

Nor should you, but the indignation of a realtor saying that you and not responding to it speaks volumes about you and the current market.

Bluefoam wrote: »

I did end up making an offer that I was happy with, on a property I like very much, it is within my capacity to repay... The others I bid on no longer play on my conscience... Don't be upset that someone outbid you, move forward and find the house for you.

You’ve made several assumptions, the biggest being we couldn’t afford to go higher. We are on our third property, any property we’ve ever viewed and had an interest in bidding on we’ve always decided beforehand what our maximum would be...we had done our research on the road and area and decided 500k would be the max. Doesn’t matter what way bidding goes, anyone who doesn’t employ this strategy can get into very messy situations. The other is quite hard but when you view into the hundred mark of viewings it gets easier not to become anyway emotionally attached to the property until those keys are in your hand. Thanks for caring tho, you sound like you have your finger on the pulse

matsy1 · 24-11-2018 6:36pm

Banks generally don't give out many mortgages during recessions. The reason house prices fall is because people can't sell or buy. For the people hoping the arse falls out of the market. It's not a nice situation for anyone.

The_Conductor · 24-11-2018 6:38pm

KevinCavan wrote: »

I think that the houses can’t keep rising beyond another 3 years. The madness will eventually subside when prices reach certain levels

We don't have a national property market anymore- we have a Dublin market- and then a non-Dublin market- with a distinct urban and rural split in the non-Dublin market. These are further differentiated or stratified into price categories. Certain price categories are continuing to grow strongly, notably in Dublin properties <400k, and elsewhere <300k. Once you go over 400k- prices have plateau'ed- until you reach 650k or so in a Dublin context- and over 650k- prices are in freefall. Even Shane Ross- only got 25% of his asking price for his family home in Wicklow- he had to discount the asking by fully 75% to shift it.

At the moment- the Central Bank rules- are driving the lower tiers of the property market- but stiffling the upper tiers.

I have no idea what the story is with a 3 bed in Clonsilla selling for EUR2m- which is referred to a few posts back- perhaps someone could post a link to it- and we might see what the justification was.

Saying prices aren't going to fall for 3 years- or indeed any time frame- is a waste of time- in general, prices in Dublin have slowed to a 3.5-4.5% growth rate- the bulk of any increases in prices- are ironically in rural locations. This run-away inflation in rural property prices- cannot continue- esp. in the context that Wexford, Tipperary, Limerick and Galway- are being sold as commutable to Dublin to prospective purchasers- which is completely insane. Hell- Navan is insane- but at least its a little more understandable.

sunnyday1234 · 24-11-2018 6:45pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Oh, I didn't realise it was implemented across Europe, I thought the rules here only applied to the Irish market...

The rules are from the Irish central bank , nothing to do with ECB

Bluefoam · 24-11-2018 8:20pm

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

Oh, I didn't realise it was implemented across Europe, I thought the rules here only applied to the Irish market...

The rules are from the Irish central bank , nothing to do with ECB

I know

Bluefoam · 24-11-2018 8:31pm

sightband wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

I don't really care what silly games they are playing or how much money they want....

Nor should you, but the indignation of a realtor saying that you and not responding to it speaks volumes about you and the current market.

Bluefoam wrote: »

I did end up making an offer that I was happy with, on a property I like very much, it is within my capacity to repay... The others I bid on no longer play on my conscience... Don't be upset that someone outbid you, move forward and find the house for you.

You’ve made several assumptions, the biggest being we couldn’t afford to go higher. We are on our third property, any property we’ve ever viewed and had an interest in bidding on we’ve always decided beforehand what our maximum would be...we had done our research on the road and area and decided 500k would be the max. Doesn’t matter what way bidding goes, anyone who doesn’t employ this strategy can get into very messy situations. The other is quite hard but when you view into the hundred mark of viewings it gets easier not to become anyway emotionally attached to the property until those keys are in your hand. Thanks for caring tho, you sound like you have your finger on the pulse

you are the one making assumptions... You have no idea how I reacted to estate agents, dodgy and unclear situations... All of which I have experienced as a home buyer. I have also purchased three houses and am in the process of purchasing my fourth... I do have a very clear plan when bidding, and have very well worked out criteria. I don't however feel bitter when I don't get a property at the price I want... It's an open market and there's often someone who either wants, or can afford a property more than you.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 24-11-2018 8:34pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

you are the one making assumptions... You have no idea how I reacted to estate agents, dodgy and unclear situations... All of which I have experienced as a home buyer. I have also purchased three houses and am in the process of purchasing my fourth... I do have a very clear plan when bidding, and have very well worked out criteria. I don't however feel bitter when I don't get a property at the price I want... It's an open market and there's often someone who either wants, or can afford a property more than you.

Just out of interest are you trading up every time or are you buying a few for renting etc? 4 house purchases seems like a lot.

Bluefoam · 24-11-2018 8:46pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

you are the one making assumptions... You have no idea how I reacted to estate agents, dodgy and unclear situations... All of which I have experienced as a home buyer. I have also purchased three houses and am in the process of purchasing my fourth... I do have a very clear plan when bidding, and have very well worked out criteria. I don't however feel bitter when I don't get a property at the price I want... It's an open market and there's often someone who either wants, or can afford a property more than you.

Just out of interest are you trading up every time or are you buying a few for renting etc? 4 house purchases seems like a lot.

My first home was an apartment, trade up to a 3 bed semi, lost that during the recession and incurred a massive debt and no equity, next was a family holiday home and now that I am back on my feet, having fixed my financial situation, I am purchasing a home to live in...

No doubt someone here will try to analyse my personal situation, probably making some wildly inaccurate assumptions, make some accusations or silly comments... But I'm just a normal person in need of a home, which I am buying to live in. I work hard for a living and a home...

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 24-11-2018 10:30pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

My first home was an apartment, trade up to a 3 bed semi, lost that during the recession and incurred a massive debt and no equity, next was a family holiday home and now that I am back on my feet, having fixed my financial situation, I am purchasing a home to live in...

No doubt someone here will try to analyse my personal situation, probably making some wildly inaccurate assumptions, make some accusations or silly comments... But I'm just a normal person in need of a home, which I am buying to live in. I work hard for a living and a home...

Fair play sounds like a rocky road. Good on you for getting back on your feet.

Shedite27 · 25-11-2018 1:24pm

sightband wrote: »

Low and behold this came to fruition in my case...house asking was 465k, came down to the wire at 495k which was our bid and only us and another bidder and then they come back with a 520k counter bid. We were gone at anything over 500k. Agent showed me the log book as I requested and was left itching my head telling them they could inform the other person they just blew the guts of 18k on nothing. yes they got the house but it is this type of stupidity that has our market in such turmoil. Too many idiots with money, or banks money.

They got the house at a price they were willing to pay.

They weren't to know you were gone at 500k, if they'd gone to 500 they risked getting another bidder involved. Their tactic worked

KevinCavan · 25-11-2018 1:31pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

We don't have a national property market anymore- we have a Dublin market- and then a non-Dublin market- with a distinct urban and rural split in the non-Dublin market. These are further differentiated or stratified into price categories. Certain price categories are continuing to grow strongly, notably in Dublin properties <400k, and elsewhere <300k. Once you go over 400k- prices have plateau'ed- until you reach 650k or so in a Dublin context- and over 650k- prices are in freefall. Even Shane Ross- only got 25% of his asking price for his family home in Wicklow- he had to discount the asking by fully 75% to shift it.

At the moment- the Central Bank rules- are driving the lower tiers of the property market- but stiffling the upper tiers.

I have no idea what the story is with a 3 bed in Clonsilla selling for EUR2m- which is referred to a few posts back- perhaps someone could post a link to it- and we might see what the justification was.

Saying prices aren't going to fall for 3 years- or indeed any time frame- is a waste of time- in general, prices in Dublin have slowed to a 3.5-4.5% growth rate- the bulk of any increases in prices- are ironically in rural locations. This run-away inflation in rural property prices- cannot continue- esp. in the context that Wexford, Tipperary, Limerick and Galway- are being sold as commutable to Dublin to prospective purchasers- which is completely insane. Hell- Navan is insane- but at least its a little more understandable.

The three bed in Clonsilla going up to €2,000,000, was me trying to highlight how certain boardsies would have you believe that there can never be a property crash in Ireland again.

matsy1 · 26-11-2018 12:32pm

KevinCavan wrote: »

I think that the houses can’t keep rising beyond another 3 years. The madness will eventually subside when prices reach certain levels

Subside? Explain?

Cuddlesworth · 26-11-2018 3:27pm

matsy1 wrote: »

Subside? Explain?

We have a 40 year history of massive rises and drops.

If we went into prices that kept parity with inflation, it would be unusual.

So the betting man would say that if prices drop for any reason, they will drop hard and fast.

26-11-2018 4:09pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

..............

So the betting man would say that if prices drop for any reason, they will drop hard and fast.

But the betting man also needs to predict when the prices will drop and to do that they'd need to think of the reason.

No doubt if they drop they might drop hard and fast as opposed to slowly, if they drop.

Demand doesn't seem to be dropping, supply might increase over the next few years.

Regarding the 40 year history............. past performance is no .....etc etc etc etc

tobsey · 26-11-2018 4:15pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

We have a 40 year history of massive rises and drops.

If we went into prices that kept parity with inflation, it would be unusual.

So the betting man would say that if prices drop for any reason, they will drop hard and fast.

We have only one instance of massive rises and drops. 2000-2013. The economy has gone through boom and bust cycles but property prices were never affected as much as they were during the tiger and subsequent crash. The recession in the 80s didn’t affect property prices near as much as 2008.

Property Market 2018

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