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19-03-2021, 08:16   #16
Neddyusa
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suprised nobody has mentioned the Polar Maritime train headind our way at the end of the month
Haven't seen the charts but cold, wet and windy is a safe bet.
"In like a Lamb, Out like a Lion" is surely the most accurate of all the weather-lore sayings.
Only remember one or two exceptional years where March didn't play out that way.
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19-03-2021, 22:58   #17
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Some cooler days and frosty nights in places in the second half of next week , the end of the run at +240 hrs back to SW'lys and milder perhaps.

Possible wintry showers at times, and getting to the time of year when colder upper air and the stronger sun can lead to convective weather with hail and thunderstorm activity.

Maybe a few white mountain caps in the W, NW and N

ECM and GFS quite similar

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20-03-2021, 05:27   #18
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There has been slight upgrade in next Fridays cold snap. If it comes as progged it’ll be a short one but it appears that Ulster may have some low level snow showers east on Friday and possibly through the day.

The airmass is sourced from eastern Canada and is relatively unstable. This airmass is 2c colder than the one that brought some snow showers to altitudes above 200 metres last week. So should be less marginal.

As always the further NW the better.





The old GFS has heights as low as 520 decametre.





So we will have to wait and see how this progresses.. a slight change in 850hPa will affect the final outcome.

This is my experience with these events:
-4c 850hPa = hill snow only
-7c 850hPa = low level snow in Ulster

So will be watching for those lower 850hPa’s!!

Last edited by Nqp15hhu; 20-03-2021 at 05:32.
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20-03-2021, 17:21   #19
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Snow still showing in this run. In fact the cold air heads further south.

-7c 850hPa across most of the island on Friday morning and theta e of 11c which is rather cold for an Atlantic airmass.

It is showing on the ECM but slightly warmer.

Theta E (shows cold air advection, needs to be <12 for low level snow in convective maritime air)

The easterly was around 8-10. So very cold for a NW incursion.




850hPa’s as low as -8c in some spots. I would prefer this to be more widespread but it shouldn’t be an issue in heavy showers.




<520dam



Low freezing levels in Ulster.





If this occurs as predicted, I think the likelihood of low level snow falling in the showers in NW Connaught and Ulster is quite high!
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20-03-2021, 19:34   #20
Meteorite58
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Yeah Nqp15hhu, ECM showing Fri from the early hours to be a one off wintry day with snow potential , more so on higher ground, W, NW and N showing showing the most potential , in fact on this run the Western half of the country seeing wintry showers . Even colder on this run but a long way off and could easily modify before then. Last few runs showing it being a windy day also so added wind chill. Other models showing similar cold potential. One to watch.

Milder and rain fronts crossing the country on Saturday as winds switch more SW'ly.



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21-03-2021, 04:23   #21
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The 00Z is even more of an upgrade, has 516dam over Ulster and Connaught at 132 hours!

Ulster is under >-6c 850hPa for 24 hours...

Last edited by Nqp15hhu; 21-03-2021 at 04:27.
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21-03-2021, 07:30   #22
typhoony
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The 00Z is even more of an upgrade, has 516dam over Ulster and Connaught at 132 hours!

Ulster is under >-6c 850hPa for 24 hours...
Good potential from Mayo northwards, especially inland higher locations like Knock for example
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21-03-2021, 20:31   #23
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What is the week beginning Monday 29th looking like at the moment?
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21-03-2021, 21:54   #24
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Just logged on to meteociel to have a look at the charts and I see their datacentre burned down last week and destroyed all their stuff

Hopefully they can get back up and running, its a site I've relied on for years
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22-03-2021, 19:08   #25
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What is the week beginning Monday 29th looking like at the moment?
2 foot of rain Tanko. The wet kind.
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22-03-2021, 20:09   #26
tanko
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2 foot of rain Tanko. The wet kind.
You'll be delighted with that, your place is burning up this week i suppose
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22-03-2021, 20:16   #27
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You'll be delighted with that, your place is burning up this week i suppose
Rain dance at the ready.
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23-03-2021, 10:56   #28
snowgal
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potential cold Easter on the cards?
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23-03-2021, 12:21   #29
pauldry
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Yeah knowing this year and all the craziness going on we will prob get a cold April. I think its better getting cold in April and May as the heat usually (usually) shows up in Summer then.
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25-03-2021, 12:21   #30
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Any update on this potential northerly blast heading our way over Easter?
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