Recession predictions

KyussB · 15-12-2020 2:34am

I think that just involves expanding our idea of what useful work is - we're all predisposed to thinking of stuff that turns a profit, or other less-direct economic benefit (like infrastructure), as being the main useful thing - but (while we want most of the work to be economically beneficial in the JG, for macroeconomic reasons) work that is socially beneficial counts as well, as being worthwhile.

If someone's not cut out for regular work, for whatever reasons, we can tailer work to them on a case-by-case basis, depending on their difficulties. People with bad enough difficulties don't necessarily need to enter the private workforce at all.

Wanderer78 · 15-12-2020 6:34am

KyussB wrote:

If someone's not cut out for regular work, for whatever reasons, we can tailer work to them on a case-by-case basis, depending on their difficulties. People with bad enough difficulties don't necessarily need to enter the private workforce at all.

I appreciate that, but I do feel their psychological needs still wouldn't actually be met, you d be surprised of the amount of damage long term unemployment causes, and all its complexities, it actually costs society a significant amount, and not just financially, by not attending to these needs, I feel it would need to be also integrated into the process, to increase its potential to succeed

Geuze · 17-12-2020 2:39am

ESRI publishes QEC.

https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-winter-2020

This Commentary highlights a significant recovery in the Irish economy in Q3 coinciding with the easing of restrictions over this period. Exports continued to perform very strongly in Q3, propped up by an ongoing strong performance in medicinal and pharmaceutical products and computer services. Consumption and Investment were also significantly improved relative to Q2 but are expected to be lower for the full year. As a result of the strong export performance in particular, our GDP forecast for 2020 has been revised up and we now expect the Irish economy to grow by 3.4 per cent this year.

!!!!!!!

No recession after all!!!!!

Geuze · 17-12-2020 2:42am

https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/QEC2020WIN_0.pdf

Both GDP and GNP expected to rise in 2020....................!!!!!!!

This means labour productivity must have soared????

As GDP and GNP are forecast to rise, according to the ESRI, and as employment has fallen, therefore mathematically, GDP per worker will rise.

That measure of labour productivity will rise.

KyussB · 17-12-2020 4:12am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I appreciate that, but I do feel their psychological needs still wouldn't actually be met, you d be surprised of the amount of damage long term unemployment causes, and all its complexities, it actually costs society a significant amount, and not just financially, by not attending to these needs, I feel it would need to be also integrated into the process, to increase its potential to succeed

Absolutely, I agree with all of that - and it would be essential to have all of that built into the JG program.

I personally view it not merely as a means of providing a job, but of providing a way of giving a hand up for all economically vulnerable people in the economy, who get left behind in todays style of economy (many of them left behind in society overall, partly due to this) - and while the JG would greatly lower the level of difficulty in getting work (eliminating it for almost everyone) - some people will still have complex difficulties, and it will require a lot of additional support and being extremely creative and generous in defining what counts as useful/socially-beneficial work.

That should be one of the no.1 priorities of the government and social/health support services. I don't think it's right to leave even a single person behind, where they can be given a hand up.

Wanderer78 · 17-12-2020 7:57am

Geuze wrote:

This means labour productivity must have soared????

I seriously doubt that, productivity is a funny one, we ve probably maxed out on this one, in most sectors, I suspect we ve actually surpassed our capabilities in many sectors and this is now inducing complex psychological issues in many

Geuze wrote:

Huge fiscal deficit, huge public borrowing

Again, nothing to be worrying about, thank god we still have this ability to do so, or we d be in serious trouble, i suspect early 21 is gonna be bad but when the vaccine kicks in, there could be a significant up turn, as confidence should rise significantly, unfortunately some businesses probably won't make it though

Timing belt · 17-12-2020 4:31pm

Geuze wrote: »

ESRI publishes QEC.

https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-winter-2020

This Commentary highlights a significant recovery in the Irish economy in Q3 coinciding with the easing of restrictions over this period. Exports continued to perform very strongly in Q3, propped up by an ongoing strong performance in medicinal and pharmaceutical products and computer services. Consumption and Investment were also significantly improved relative to Q2 but are expected to be lower for the full year. As a result of the strong export performance in particular, our GDP forecast for 2020 has been revised up and we now expect the Irish economy to grow by 3.4 per cent this year.

!!!!!!!

No recession after all!!!!!

It’s hard to believe but is good news. Although there may be no technical recession there are still sectors very badly damaged.

Geuze · 18-12-2020 10:52am

Timing belt wrote: »

It’s hard to believe but is good news. Although there may be no technical recession there are still sectors very badly damaged.

As GDP/GNP fell during Q1 and Q2, doesn't that meet the definition of a technical recession?

AlmightyCushion · 18-12-2020 11:23am

Geuze wrote: »

As GDP/GNP fell during Q1 and Q2, doesn't that meet the definition of a technical recession?

Depends on the definition, some say 2 quarters of negative growth some say a few months. Using either definition we had a recession.

20-12-2020 2:34pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I seriously doubt that, productivity is a funny one, we ve probably maxed out on this one, in most sectors, I suspect we ve actually surpassed our capabilities in many sectors and this is now inducing complex psychological issues in many

Can I get a source for that claim please?

All that wealth generated in this country over the last 30 years, how terrible it is!!

Pussyhands · 26-03-2021 10:48am

So far you would have to say there has been no recession. PUP payments are propping up the whole thing.

Insane amount of money spent in my opinion. It will have to be paid back, but I think the plan is to let inflation run up to make the debt disappear.

Widdensushi · 26-03-2021 11:24am

Pussyhands wrote: »

So far you would have to say there has been no recession. PUP payments are propping up the whole thing.

Insane amount of money spent in my opinion. It will have to be paid back, but I think the plan is to let inflation run up to make the debt disappear.

Inflation is a factor of course, but there are tough budgets ahead, that will cause a recession, at the moment it is about keeping covid under control.

Zenify · 26-03-2021 12:21pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

So far you would have to say there has been no recession. PUP payments are propping up the whole thing.

Insane amount of money spent in my opinion. It will have to be paid back, but I think the plan is to let inflation run up to make the debt disappear.

At what percent will inflation make our debts disappear?

Pussyhands · 26-03-2021 12:25pm

Zenify wrote: »

At what percent will inflation make our debts disappear?

Won't make it disappear but will make the true value of it much smaller than it is now.

I can't think of any regulation introduced by government that reduces the price of things. Alcohol - price increases. Cars from UK - price increases. Sugary drinks - price increases.

Then they'll raise the minimum wage and prices will go up again and the cycle goes on.

Zenify · 26-03-2021 12:28pm

I'm looking for a figure as lots of people think diffently about inflation. Do you mean 1.5% or 2% or 5% or 10%?

Pussyhands · 26-03-2021 12:40pm

Zenify wrote: »

I'm looking for a figure as lots of people think diffently about inflation. Do you mean 1.5% or 2% or 5% or 10%?

Inflation figures depends on what you're measuring.

CPI is a waste of time, it doesn't measure what it needs to.

4% rise in a box of rice isn't the same as a 4% rise in house prices or cars.

Inflation technically has been very low the last number of years yet in reality, houses, cars, etc have all gotten massively more expensive.

When I talk inflation, I'm talking about the things you feel every day. Electricity prices, fuel, cars, rent/housing, restaurants/pubs/hotels.

Zenify · 26-03-2021 1:06pm

The reason why I ask for a specific percentage is because no realistic percent of inflation will make our debt dissappear.

Our debt is growing faster than inflation (over last 20years), our interest payments are billions each year. If we do get high inflation we will also get higher interst rates and further borrowing will be far more expensive.

I just can't see any scenario where debt will just magically vanish.

Our interest payment last year was around 4 billion, this year will be less due to lower borrowing costs.

Timing belt · 27-03-2021 1:29am

Zenify wrote: »

The reason why I ask for a specific percentage is because no realistic percent of inflation will make our debt dissappear.

Our debt is growing faster than inflation (over last 20years), our interest payments are billions each year. If we do get high inflation we will also get higher interst rates and further borrowing will be far more expensive.

I just can't see any scenario where debt will just magically vanish.

Our interest payment last year was around 4 billion, this year will be less due to lower borrowing costs.

If we do have inflation then we will be crippled when it comes to rolling over the debt as the cost of servicing the debt will increase.

KyussB · 27-03-2021 1:45am

How are people not making the harmonious link between: Economic Slowdown (GDP drop) > Lower Inflation and Interest Rates > Increased Public Spending with floating Public Debt (restored GDP) > Economic Recovery > Restored Inflation and Interest Rates > Reduced Public Spending with less Public Debt.

Public Debt is eroded primarily by GDP growth (substitute with GNI or GNI* if preferred, still holds true) - so you concentrate on keeping GDP growth maximized, and let Public Debt levels, Inflation levels, and Interest Rate levels, adjust depending on the different stages of the slowdown/recovery cycle.

That harmonious cycle, combined with maximizing GDP growth, eliminates any potential threat from debt/interest levels - those things occur at different parts of the cycle.

Arthur Daley · 27-03-2021 9:17am

Debt is eroded by paying the blasted thing back

Wanderer78 · 27-03-2021 9:33am

Arthur Daley wrote:

Debt is eroded by paying the blasted thing back

We need to stop with this nonsense, it's bloody dangerous, debt is in fact a critical function of a modern economy, in order to have a growing and expanding economy, you must also have a growing and expanding money supply. In a modern economy, such as ours, this is done by increasing debt, as debt is the money supply, hence the term 'monetization of debt', but this has been traditional done by ultimately relying on the private sector to do so, which creates this debt in the form of credit, which generally ends up inflating asset prices such as property, leading to asset bubbles and subsequent busts. It's also important to remember, paying off debt, either public or private, is in fact the destruction of money itself. therefore debt should in fact always be increasing, in an expanding and growing economy, the critical element being, that economy must always be capable of servicing these debts. This is exactly what happened in 08, we were unable to service the debts created during the boom, and unable to maintain the rate of expansion of these debts, always remembering, the majority of these debts were created by the private sector, I.e private debts.

Arthur Daley · 27-03-2021 9:38am

Stop with this nonsense?

I wish they'd bloody start. Start paying down the debt and behave responsibly.

Your philosophy has been the establishment view and got us to where we are today. Not mine.

Wanderer78 · 27-03-2021 9:44am

Arthur Daley wrote:

I wish they'd bloody start. Start paying down the debt and behave responsibly.

Arthur Daley wrote:

Your philosophy has been the establishment view and got us to where we are today. Not mine.

Again, see above, this is where fiscal conservatism becomes extremely dangerous, most don't understand how our modern monetary systems work, they don't understand the fundamentals of it. they still don't understand that by not expanding the public money supply, forces us to expand it via the private sector money supply, I.e. via credit creation, which results in the same old problem of raising asset prices, in particular property. By continuing this cycle, we in fact are behaving recklessly and are endangering us all

Pussyhands · 27-03-2021 2:18pm

KyussB wrote: »

How are people not making the harmonious link between: Economic Slowdown (GDP drop) > Lower Inflation and Interest Rates > Increased Public Spending with floating Public Debt (restored GDP) > Economic Recovery > Restored Inflation and Interest Rates > Reduced Public Spending with less Public Debt.

Public Debt is eroded primarily by GDP growth (substitute with GNI or GNI* if preferred, still holds true) - so you concentrate on keeping GDP growth maximized, and let Public Debt levels, Inflation levels, and Interest Rate levels, adjust depending on the different stages of the slowdown/recovery cycle.

That harmonious cycle, combined with maximizing GDP growth, eliminates any potential threat from debt/interest levels - those things occur at different parts of the cycle.

Rates haven't increased for a decade...they've stayed at historically low levels that everyone now needs them to survive.

Just look at people talking about housing. "rent is more expensive therefore I'm better off getting a mortgage" yet they fail to think about rates rising.

Anyone up to the age of 30/31 has only known extremely low rates.

KyussB · 27-03-2021 10:28pm

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Debt is eroded by paying the blasted thing back

It is incredibly easy to demonstrate that this is false: That requires a budget surplus. If you look at the history of the budget balance of pretty much any country in the world, a surplus is an incredibly rare event, usually followed by an economic crisis.

That's in disagreement with centuries of economic data, from every country on the planet.

External Association · 27-03-2021 10:32pm

With every week of lockdown, it's more of a worry.

KyussB · 27-03-2021 10:35pm

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Stop with this nonsense?

I wish they'd bloody start. Start paying down the debt and behave responsibly.

Your philosophy has been the establishment view and got us to where we are today. Not mine.

Government finances do not work like personal/household finances. What is 'responsible' for personal finances, is not the same and is often the opposite with government finances. Governments practically never pay down their debts (as proven by how rare budget surpluses are), they roll them over forever, letting GDP growth erode them.

KyussB · 27-03-2021 10:39pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Rates haven't increased for a decade...they've stayed at historically low levels that everyone now needs them to survive.

Just look at people talking about housing. "rent is more expensive therefore I'm better off getting a mortgage" yet they fail to think about rates rising.

Anyone up to the age of 30/31 has only known extremely low rates.

In terms of Eurozone governments, yes: The ECB is trapped into low/negative rates, because without them the Eurozone/Euro will not survive, as raising rates now would crater economies EU-wide (which would be the opposite of the ECB's mandate).

That's why we're not going to see raised rates until there has been a full EU-wide economic recovery.

Again, government finances aren't like personal/household finances: There is no valid comparison to mortgages.

Pussyhands · 27-03-2021 11:14pm

KyussB wrote: »

In terms of Eurozone governments, yes: The ECB is trapped into low/negative rates, because without them the Eurozone/Euro will not survive, as raising rates now would crater economies EU-wide (which would be the opposite of the ECB's mandate).

That's why we're not going to see raised rates until there has been a full EU-wide economic recovery.

Again, government finances aren't like personal/household finances: There is no valid comparison to mortgages.

Well, if interest rates rise we are finished. Government never really pay off debt, they only buy new bonds and roll it over. It's been great we've been able to roll over our debt to cheaper debt but if inflation kicks off and rates rise high, then the debt is going to roll over very high too and we're ****ed then and will have to cut spending and increase taxes massively.

That's what Leo and Pascal are worried about. The likes of McWilliams saying we should borrow like **** because it's cheap aren't thinking 5/10 years down the line.

An Ri rua · 27-03-2021 11:15pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Again, see above, this is where fiscal conservatism becomes extremely dangerous, most don't understand how our modern monetary systems work, they don't understand the fundamentals of it. they still don't understand that by not expanding the public money supply, forces us to expand it via the private sector money supply, I.e. via credit creation, which results in the same old problem of raising asset prices, in particular property. By continuing this cycle, we in fact are behaving recklessly and are endangering us all

Modern monetary systems don't 'work'. That's the whole point (opposing yours). It may appear to be, but it's not.
We shall re-visit these posts in a year or so.

An Ri rua · 27-03-2021 11:19pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Well, if interest rates rise we are finished. Government never really pay off debt, they only buy new bonds and roll it over. It's been great we've been able to roll over our debt to cheaper debt but if inflation kicks off and rates rise high, then the debt is going to roll over very high too and we're ****ed then and will have to cut spending and increase taxes massively.

That's what Leo and Pascal are worried about. The likes of McWilliams saying we should borrow like **** because it's cheap aren't thinking 5/10 years down the line.

He was addressing the public purse, within the constraints of the ECB. And I like his thinking. Make a good lot out of a bad situation. But being a Keynesian, he is missing the broader realities of what's coming. The MMT train will run out of track.

Re personal debt, people (who can) should borrow funny money and buy hard assets. That's what paid mortgages in the 70s. I loaded up on silver and gold a year ago under a similar arrangement. And now I wait.

Arthur Daley · 28-03-2021 12:39am

KyussB wrote: »

Government finances do not work like personal/household finances. What is 'responsible' for personal finances, is not the same and is often the opposite with government finances. Governments practically never pay down their debts (as proven by how rare budget surpluses are), they roll them over forever, letting GDP growth erode them.

UK Government debt as a % of GDP was running at just over 50% in the mid to late 70s, when the IMF came in, and Britain was the 'sick man of Europe'

By 1990 it had fallen to less than 30%. This was a real economy, with real GDP figures, a real currency, and associated budget revenues to back up the debt. People felt wealthier in a tangible way and living standards improved substantially. This was sustained up to 1997 and Blair inherited a strong economic position.

Since Blair and Brown UK government debt has taken off like a rocket to more than 80% of GDP, following the same 'emperor's new clothes' logic we've seen on this thread.

It's also been stated on here that the ramp up in Irish Sov Debt was primarily private sector debt. No doubt this is 'it was the banks' sort of nonsense that left wing think tanks and politicians want people to believe ad infinitum.

The reality is that most of the debt ramped up since 2006 is overspending by the government, with a relatively small amount of the debt being attributable to Anglo etc. And I'm not on here to make apologies for the likes of Anglo, AIB or Irish Nationwide either.

Wanderer78 · 28-03-2021 1:42am

Arthur Daley wrote:

The reality is that most of the debt ramped up since 2006 is overspending by the government, with a relatively small amount of the debt being attributable to Anglo etc. And I'm not on here to make apologies for the likes of Anglo, AIB or Irish Nationwide either.

The bailout out debts are what's called odious debts, they should in fact be cancelled, another element of our rising public debts post 08 was in fact caused by austerity, well known globally for surpressing economic growth during economic downturns. it can be clearly seen in data that during the previous boom we had become over reliant on private debt, I.e. credit, as our primary money supply, and significantly under reliant on the public money supply, I.e. public debt. Again this is where fiscal conservatism becomes extremely dangerous, by defaulting to it's normal position, i.e. reducing public debt, during and/or post economic downturn, thankfully it seems America could be seeing sense with its 2 trillion stimulus

KyussB · 28-03-2021 2:26am

Pussyhands wrote: »

Well, if interest rates rise we are finished. Government never really pay off debt, they only buy new bonds and roll it over. It's been great we've been able to roll over our debt to cheaper debt but if inflation kicks off and rates rise high, then the debt is going to roll over very high too and we're ****ed then and will have to cut spending and increase taxes massively.

That's what Leo and Pascal are worried about. The likes of McWilliams saying we should borrow like **** because it's cheap aren't thinking 5/10 years down the line.

You're ignoring that interest rate changes follow a cycle which simultaneously affects government spending and debt, as described below:

KyussB wrote: »

How are people not making the harmonious link between: Economic Slowdown (GDP drop) > Lower Inflation and Interest Rates > Increased Public Spending with floating Public Debt (restored GDP) > Economic Recovery > Restored Inflation and Interest Rates > Reduced Public Spending with less Public Debt.

Public Debt is eroded primarily by GDP growth (substitute with GNI or GNI* if preferred, still holds true) - so you concentrate on keeping GDP growth maximized, and let Public Debt levels, Inflation levels, and Interest Rate levels, adjust depending on the different stages of the slowdown/recovery cycle.

That harmonious cycle, combined with maximizing GDP growth, eliminates any potential threat from debt/interest levels - those things occur at different parts of the cycle.

With the ECB's current "whatever it takes" policies (a much different situation to 2010), the part of the recovery cycle when interest rates rise, is precisely the time that government spending is cut back when at or close to Full Output.

This makes debt servicing a non-issue. At that period of time most of the debt stock will remain low-interest (bonds have maturity periods typically ranging in years, often decades, spreading out the due dates widely) - there will be little-to-no reliance on new debt issuance - both maximized GDP growth and higher inflation will be eroding the debt stock.

Stop trying to look at single variables like the Interest Rate or raw Public Debt level in isolation. You have to look at the main macroeconomic figures all at once, and the structure of the debt - and understand how that fits into the stage of the recovery cycle we're at.

KyussB · 28-03-2021 3:03am

Arthur Daley wrote: »

UK Government debt as a % of GDP was running at just over 50% in the mid to late 70s, when the IMF came in, and Britain was the 'sick man of Europe'

By 1990 it had fallen to less than 30%. This was a real economy, with real GDP figures, a real currency, and associated budget revenues to back up the debt. People felt wealthier in a tangible way and living standards improved substantially. This was sustained up to 1997 and Blair inherited a strong economic position.

Since Blair and Brown UK government debt has taken off like a rocket to more than 80% of GDP, following the same 'emperor's new clothes' logic we've seen on this thread.

It's also been stated on here that the ramp up in Irish Sov Debt was primarily private sector debt. No doubt this is 'it was the banks' sort of nonsense that left wing think tanks and politicians want people to believe ad infinitum.

The reality is that most of the debt ramped up since 2006 is overspending by the government, with a relatively small amount of the debt being attributable to Anglo etc. And I'm not on here to make apologies for the likes of Anglo, AIB or Irish Nationwide either.

The UK went from 50% debt levels to 30% in the period you mention, without a single surplus - proving that GDP growth was used to erode it.

The cost to the public finances is the debt servicing cost, not the Public Debt level. You can not calculate or predict the debt servicing cost, without looking at the structure of government bonds, and the period of the recovery cycle that we are at.

This makes Public Debt a meaningless figure - and makes Public Debt vs GDP a dangerously misleading figure, given how GDP may be far below Full Output in a downturn.

Geuze · 28-03-2021 3:38am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Again, see above, this is where fiscal conservatism becomes extremely dangerous,

If by fiscal conservatism you mean running budget surpluses, then there's no need to worry, as they are as rare as hen's teeth.

2014 to 2019 = Budget Deficits each and every year, except

2018 = balanced budget

2019 = small surplus

I'd say 2019 will be the only year of Budget Surplus in twenty years!!!

KyussB · 28-03-2021 5:18am

The best way to look at it in my view, is that Fiscal Conservatism broadly means holding the economy below Full Output, by strangling Government Spending.
It's the misguided focus on accounting variables like the budget balance (where it's normal for that to wax and wane) - versus focusing on the real economy.

The difference between targeting Full Output and Full Employment, instead of targeting an arbitrary accounting figure.

Geuze · 28-03-2021 3:58pm

KyussB wrote: »

The best way to look at it in my view, is that Fiscal Conservatism broadly means holding the economy below Full Output, by strangling Government Spending.

Okay.

No need to worry about that here.

Public spending has been racing ahead in recent years.

2014 = 73,996m

2019 = 87,285m

18% rise in five years.

Irish politicians find it difficult to say no to spending demands from vested interests and trade unions.

KyussB · 28-03-2021 4:49pm

A proxy for determining that we are below Full Output, is to see how far we are from Full Employment - and right now we're hovering around ~25% covid-adjusted unemployment - so our Output Gap is huge at the moment, and the government isn't spending anywhere near enough to maintain Full-Output/Full-Employment.

It's the right time economically (even if covid makes it more difficult practically), to be engaging in a blitz of spending on capital projects, such as massive amounts of housing/accommodation building (a high percentage of which can be made self-financing over time, with the right configuration).

Geuze · 28-03-2021 11:35pm

Output being below potential output now is due to restrictions, not due to a lack of State expenditure.

As the restrictions ease, output will rise back up.

KyussB · 29-03-2021 11:07am

When the private sector fails to maintain Full Output/Employment, only the state can continue to maintain Full Output/Employment until the private sector recovers.

Output being below potential is due to both restrictions (deflating the private sector, creating an Output Gap), and lack of State expenditure (the state is choosing to leave people unemployed and thus leave output below potential, when there is endless useful/urgent work to be done).

Fiscal conservatism is anything which opposes the state taking up the slack, in shoring up Full Output/Employment - by referencing the budget balance (which is a near-meaningless figure).

Arthur Daley · 29-03-2021 12:39pm

And where is Robotics/Automation in this argument? The push for UBI, the digitisation of businesses including online retail. what if a lot of the people put on the dole in the last year do not have viable jobs to go back to?

What real savings are there from digitisation if if just means expenditure is shifted on to the state.

Does this model deal with structural changes in the economy? It probably needs to.

KyussB · 29-03-2021 8:29pm

I don't see robots building all the housing/accommodation we need, retrofitting our economy for eliminating climate changing emissions, doing all the R&D and technological development etc. needed for advancing renewables and other climate goals, or expanding our public transport or internet infrastructure etc..

There is a practically endless backlog of urgent work that needs doing, which isn't being done because of political opposition to governments employing people to do it, with Fiscal Conservatism as the guise for that political opposition.

Arthur Daley · 29-03-2021 8:39pm

Ok so basically a massive social housing programme, and make work schemes on top of the €240bn in existing debt. At least we know where we stand anyway.

Wanderer78 · 29-03-2021 8:52pm

Arthur Daley wrote:

Ok so basically a massive social housing programme, and make work schemes on top of the â‚¬240bn in existing debt. At least we know where we stand anyway.

Not just social housing, but all kinds of housing and accommodation, which would be primarily done by the private sector, but with public money, as our over reliance on private sector financing to do so via credit creation, has largely failed. Again deficits are not as bad as made out to be, particularly by more conservative ideologies, they're simply the public entity of the money supply. The previous boom, and subsequent bust has proven that an over reliance on private sector financing to carry out this critical need is in fact dangerous, as it causes an over inflation of land and property prices, and dramatic rise in private debt which was unsustainable, and the rest is history.....

KyussB · 29-03-2021 8:54pm

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Ok so basically a massive social housing programme, and make work schemes on top of the €240bn in existing debt. At least we know where we stand anyway.

I didn't say social housing. It's a bit odd to consider the challenges of climate changing emissions reduction retrofitting, public transport and internet infrastructure to be 'make work' .

It's ok to just directly express an ideological objection to governments employing people, rather than misstating what was said to try and make it look disfavourable.
The latter wastes time/space, as we'll just end up debating what was and was not said, rather than discussing actual economics.

29-03-2021 11:00pm

Can't understand what inflation mean at the moment
Inflation is when people has money at the same time when shelves in shops empty.At the time we have full shelves in shops and no money because no jobs.
Hiperinflation is when I will pay my 25 years mortgage from 4 weeks wages.But I think bank will not happy about it and will bring rates up.
The government said clearly about rates increasing on lending market.
The bigger bills unemployed people will has to pay the less money they will spend in shop.
The less money they will be spend in shop the more prices will falling what mean deflation not inflation.
People not getting wages and PUP ,they getting PUP which replacing them wages so we getting steady ammount comming into packets or even less then people was getting in wages.
Deflation that what comming but not inflation.

Growing ammount of savings will move economy forward !? Or it show that people getting wealty !?Or maybe it is recession prediction because people has memory from 2008 and getting ready for bad days !?
My savings rising because I try be ready for day when I will lose my job not because I have nowere to spend them.

Geuze · 29-03-2021 11:57pm

Anybody calling for more State expenditure on housing needs to explain how the supply-side issues will be dealt with.

A quick browse of Boards or AAM shows huge increases in construction costs.

There simply aren't enough skilled construction staff.

I want more housing supply, just like everybody else.

I agree that the market isn't solving the housing problem.

I agree with more State intervention, specifically to boost supply and cut costs.

However, simply calling for more expenditure / demand ignores the lack of inputs / sites / workers.

KyussB · 30-03-2021 2:13am

There's no part of housing/accommodation construction where the government can't resolve a supply shortage - including workers and skills.

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2021 4:09am

Geuze wrote:

However, simply calling for more expenditure / demand ignores the lack of inputs / sites / workers.

Yup, our housing issues have become extremely serious, the finances alone will not solve the problem, we need to get cracking with training people, and fast. The state is the largest land owner, so there shouldn't be issues there, but there does seem to be issues regarding new regs since the crash, increasing reluctance to build, so that must also be addressed. We 're very quickly running out of time with this one, the longer this goes on, the more serious it's becoming, and the more serious long term effects it's creating, both economically and socially

Recession predictions

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