Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

Storm 10 · 14-12-2018 7:42pm

Valentia Coastguard now broadcasting storm warnings for shipping , from a friend on a fishing trawler

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 7:48pm

That wind with the driving rain going to make for difficult conditions tomorrow

Models each a bit different with rainfall accumulations, so would need to look for an average, leaning towards the ECMWF I would think.

aisling86 · 14-12-2018 7:48pm

Going by NW radar it's not really raining compared whats to come....they have started letting the dam go in cork. Lee fields all flooded, I was wondering would they do this because behind the dam macroom area the river levels were very high today never mind come Tuesday!

pad199207 · 14-12-2018 7:49pm

Already fairly windy in Kildare. I’ve a feeling tomorrow will be more than “a bit windy and wet” as perceived by some yesterday.

DOCARCH · 14-12-2018 7:54pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Already fairly windy in Kildare. I’ve a feeling tomorrow will be more than “a bit windy and wet” as perceived by some yesterday.

Very windy/gusty now in Dublin 16.

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 7:58pm

The Low can be seen on the ECM projected to drop from 1000hPa at 22.00 Fri to 976 hPa at 18.00 Sat , drop of 24 hPa in 20 hrs , a weather bomb, explosive cyclogenseiss. This could get nasty.

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 8:18pm

Strong jet aiding the rapid deepening of the Low well off to the W of Portugal . Put on the strong coffee.

Sycamore Tree · 14-12-2018 8:20pm

May you live in interesting climes!

SleetAndSnow · 14-12-2018 8:23pm

Wind suddenly starting to pick up here in cork city alright. Drizzling aswell

squarecircles · 14-12-2018 8:25pm

could we go orange i wonder ?

this was being perceived as a vicious little system on and off all week
by the gfs, not surprised by its nasty little development.

gozunda · 14-12-2018 8:26pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The Low can be seen on the ECM projected to drop from 1000hPa at 22.00 Fri to 976 hPa at 18.00 Sat , drop of 24 hPa in 20 hrs , a weather bomb, explosive cyclogenseiss. This could get nasty.
...

Yikes :eek:

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 8:29pm

The other models haven't caught up with the ECM, AROME about the closest perhaps. ECM showing the strongest winds over Ireland atm. Now if those strong winds off the S coast move a bit closer to Ireland......

Andrew00 · 14-12-2018 8:30pm

End of the world, we’re all gonna die

Sycamore Tree · 14-12-2018 8:31pm

squarecircles wrote: »

could we go orange i wonder ?

It's not unprecedented but far more likely on Friday when the end-of-term teenage discos are on.

squarecircles · 14-12-2018 8:34pm

Andrew00 wrote: »

End of the world, we’re all gonna die

i suppose somebody potentially could,
like in the recent storms weve had.

lets hope everyone stays safe,

i hope my pussy will be ok,she hates the storms.

off now to apply fake tan and lock myself in the basement.

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 8:36pm

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2018 8:40pm

Most of the guidance would suggest that the really strong winds develop off the south coast and swing around towards south Wales, so I tend to think this will be more about rain than wind for Ireland, however, if there's any slight change to the details then these very strong winds could sweep into southeast Ireland tomorrow afternoon. It's the elongation of the low pressure that might spare Ireland from seeing the very strong gusts, but if that elongation is replaced by a more circular low during the final phases, then I would change this analysis towards 120 km/hr gusts hitting Wexford at least, possibly further west and north.

As to rainfall, this will be a moisture laden system capable of dropping 30 to 50 mm of rain on top of recent substantial falls, would have to imagine that some watersheds are reaching saturation and won't be able to deal with this additional load without flooding. Certainly some temporary roadway flooding is likely starting late tonight and continuing to come and go with pulses of heavier rain tomorrow (a track from Kerry and west Cork northeast into east Ulster looks like getting the heaviest amounts).

Oscar Bravo · 14-12-2018 8:41pm

squarecircles wrote: »

i suppose somebody potentially could,
like in the recent storms weve had.

lets hope everyone stays safe,

i hope my pussy will be ok,she hates the storms.

off now to apply fake tan and lock myself in the basement.

Reminded me of an old programm called "Are you being served "

munsterlegend · 14-12-2018 8:45pm

squarecircles wrote: »

i suppose somebody potentially could,
like in the recent storms weve had.

lets hope everyone stays safe,

i hope my pussy will be ok,she hates the storms.

off now to apply fake tan and lock myself in the basement.

I nearly spat out my tea.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2018 8:46pm

I do think this merits an orange alert for rainfall if not for wind. Expect to see that upgrade tonight. The system is complex enough that I wouldn't try to get too fancy with where orange and where yellow, just go all orange. We'll see. Some coastal fringes could verify orange alert for wind too, but the rain potential does concern me more so far. A general alert should go out to drivers to watch for surface water and hydroplaning potential especially given it's a Saturday before Christmas, you might tend to have a lot of rather inexperienced drivers making day trips outside their usual familiar surroundings. That motorway from Limerick to Kildare will no doubt have some nasty driving conditions much of the day, if this verifies.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2018 8:47pm

There could be a spinoff thread for AH the way this is going.

DOCARCH · 14-12-2018 8:56pm

Very windy now in Dublin 16. Bins and outside Christmas lights all over the place!

YESROH · 14-12-2018 9:47pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Very windy now in Dublin 16. Bins and outside Christmas lights all over the place!

Tell me about it I was out with the dog. Calmed down for a bit but seems to be picking up again.

Defaulter1831 · 14-12-2018 9:52pm

squarecircles wrote: »

i suppose somebody potentially could,
like in the recent storms weve had.

lets hope everyone stays safe,

i hope my pussy will be ok,she hates the storms.

off now to apply fake tan and lock myself in the basement.

Jaysus that's the scariest thing i've read on a weather forum:eek:

It's far more frightening than a red warning. Puts Ophelia, the Beast from the East/Emma into context.

Keep us updated on your feline friend.

DOCARCH · 14-12-2018 9:55pm

Quite a difference in wind in Dublin atm. Casement gusting 24kts and Dublin AP gusting 28kts. Meanwhile, in DunLaoghaire its gusting 44kts (with gust a little earlier of 47kts).

Defaulter1831 · 14-12-2018 9:57pm

'Quote:
squarecircles'
'could we go orange i wonder '

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

It's not unprecedented but far more likely on Friday when the end-of-term teenage discos are on.

A bit unfair on the younger generation;) They all don't look like Oompa Lumpas. Betya Sryan doesn't:)

Artane2002 · 14-12-2018 9:58pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Quite a difference in wind in Dublin atm. Casement gusting 24kts and Dublin AP gusting 28kts. Meanwhile, in DunLaoghaire its gusting 44kts (with gust a little earlier of 47kts).

Windy would be an overstatement here in Dublin 5, breezy at best.

mickger844posts · 14-12-2018 10:11pm

65km/h the Max gust here in Waterford City. Sheets of heavy drizzle falling.
As MT said an Orange Warning is possible especially for rain but also wind given the ECM output. I know which model i would trust more in this situation and its the ECM.

www.waterfordweather.com

Reckless Abandonment · 14-12-2018 10:14pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Quite a difference in wind in Dublin atm. Casement gusting 24kts and Dublin AP gusting 28kts. Meanwhile, in DunLaoghaire its gusting 44kts (with gust a little earlier of 47kts).

Very strange. Nothing here in d12. And we normal live in a wind tunnel

Storm 10 · 14-12-2018 10:34pm

Wonder why it's not Orange for wind now, Just said on the weather forecast there will be stormy and damaging wind gusts tomorrow.

mickger844posts · 14-12-2018 10:37pm

High End Yellow Warnings according to Siobhan on the forecast after the news. She did stress damaging gusts likely. Update after the Late Late show. Wouldn't surprise me to see an upgrade to Orange.

giveitholly · 14-12-2018 10:38pm

mickger844posts wrote: »

High End Yellow Warnings according to Siobhan on the forecast after the news. She did stress damaging gusts likely. Update after the Late Late show. Wouldn't surprise me to see an upgrade to Orange.

Would that mean they would name it

14-12-2018 10:46pm

squarecircles wrote: »

could we go orange i wonder ?

squarecircles wrote: »

i hope my pussy will be ok,she hates the storms.

off now to apply fake tan and lock myself in the basement.

You could if you use too much fake tan.

SleetAndSnow · 14-12-2018 10:51pm

Heavy rain just after starting here in cork city.

mickger844posts · 14-12-2018 10:56pm

giveitholly wrote: »

Would that mean they would name it

It is in Met Eireann criteria that if an Orange Warning is issued the storm would be named but recently we had a similar situation and the Storm wasn't named.
Wouldn't be much point in naming the storm at this late stage anyway in my opinion. We will see if there are any updates later tonight.

LRNM · 14-12-2018 11:00pm

Work for the ambulance service and dread days like tomorrow.
There's nothing worse than being out and about at RTC's in this weather.
And with everyone out christmas shopping there's bound to be increased traffic on the roads.

I'm glad I'm not working. But I'll still be making a trip into town. I'm just going to take it handy and give it plenty of time.

gozunda · 14-12-2018 11:03pm

Considering the forcast - is this weather system likley to be given a name?

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2018 11:09pm

Bet they're having a conference about it now ... as UK even more likely to see disruptive weather. The low itself is slowly taking shape out around 45N 22W. No strong winds at ocean buoy "PAP" yet (49N 16W) just a steady 20-25 knot southerly.

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 11:13pm

ICON 18Z looking more like the ECM now . The SE and E and NW looking windy from early morning. Increased wind speeds on this run in the S, SE , and E of the country from tomorrow afternoon. Looks like gusts somewhere around 110 to 120 km/h for a time along the S, SE and later the E . Probably 90 to 100 km/h in the, W and NW for a time tomorrow afternoon / evening.

The models have been upgrading this now for a number of runs bringing the strongest winds closer and more inland. Have we reached the peak or could we see higher winds ?

Danno · 14-12-2018 11:18pm

I'd say the cold front passage will be the most dramatic of this event, a 5c or 6c drop and a sudden wind direction change. I predict a notable squall line forming as she crosses tomorrow late afternoon.

pad199207 · 14-12-2018 11:26pm

Orange warning issued . Storm deirdre named

Oscar Bravo · 14-12-2018 11:27pm

Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland

A developing depression (Storm Deirdre) will track northeast over Ireland during Saturday afternoon and evening and will bring wet and windy weather to all areas.
West or northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65km/h with gusts of 100km/h generally, with disruptive and damaging gusts to 130km/h likely for a few hours in western and southern counties in the late afternoon and transferring eastwards during the evening.
Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00
Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00
Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 15:00 to Saturday 15 December 2018

Ray Donovan · 14-12-2018 11:30pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Orange warning issued . Storm deirdre named

Orange for the whole country!!

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 11:31pm

UKMO 12Z

Most certainly Orange warning ( high end ) along the coasts if this was to verify, which wouldn't surprise me. These charts would indicate possible temporary Red warning level along the SW coasts in places . The system moves through quickly but very potent.

Not too sure on the accuracy of these charts, don't use them very often but maybe others out there do?

Oscar Bravo · 14-12-2018 11:32pm

Weather updating all the time, Knock TAF updated at 7.32pm showing a very wet and windy day with winds going north west in the evening gusting 45 knots.

TAF AMD EIKN 141932Z 1419/1518 15018G28KT 3000 -RADZ OVC002
TEMPO 1422/1515 0200 RA FG BKN001 OVC002
TEMPO 1502/1507 14025G36KT
BECMG 1515/1517 29020G35KT 9999 BKN012
PROB40
TEMPO 1517/1518 30025G45KT 4000 RA BKN007

pad199207 · 14-12-2018 11:34pm

This is very akin to Darwin 2014. Very last minute. But Darwin went red in the end.

Oscar Bravo · 14-12-2018 11:36pm

Status Yellow

Wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Donegal, Cork and Waterford
Southeast winds will reach mean speeds 55 to 65km/h with gusts to 100km/h.
Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 22:11
Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 22:11
Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 03:00 to Saturday 15 December 2018 18:00

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 11:38pm

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1073707524929527809

SleetAndSnow · 14-12-2018 11:41pm

That rainfall warning isn’t even active yet but it’s lashing in cork city! My mother’s delighted that a storm has finally been naned After her haha. This storm has been getting stronger and stronger each run so hopefully it doesn’t get much stronger.

MidMan25 · 14-12-2018 11:44pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

That rainfall warning isn’t even active yet but it’s lashing in cork city! My mother’s delighted that a storm has finally been naned After her haha. This storm has been getting stronger and stronger each run so hopefully it doesn’t get much stronger.

Ditto :pac:

Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

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