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US Presidential Election 2020

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    #752
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,873 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Only on the sense that if he gets to run he will get elected.
    I'd liken him charisma wise to Bill Clinton in that he appeals to a lot of people. It'll also hurt the Latino Republican vote which would be hugely important in Florida.

    I’m not sure about Beto. He’a seems like he’s all style and no substance. Running Cruz that close was impressive, but what does he actually stand for?

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #753
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,590 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Brian? wrote:
    I’m not sure about Beto. He’a seems like he’s all style and no substance. Running Cruz that close was impressive, but what does he actually stand for?
    There is the weakness and the strength in one question. He hasn't pushed anybody away but he hasn't got the love either.
    This needs to be formulated if he is still in the race come July.
    He worried Trump enough when he went up against Cruz for him to call him an Irishman pretending to be Latino.
    How do you think that will play out on a national stage?
    Trump doesn't want to take on Beto, he could lose Texas and Florida.


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    #754
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,465 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I’ve said it before but the Democrats have to decide whether they want the primaries to be like the 1980s NBA western conference playoffs which were relatively easy or do they want to make them like the eastern conference playoffs where the Celtics/ 76ers/ pistons were beating lumps out of each other ? If it’s the latter then trump will walk it.


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    #755
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,049 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    I’ve said it before but the Democrats have to decide whether they want the primaries to be like the 1980s NBA western conference playoffs which were relatively easy or do they want to make them like the eastern conference playoffs where the Celtics/ 76ers/ pistons were beating lumps out of each other ? If it’s the latter then trump will walk it.

    This is crucial..

    Whoever wins needs to keep the supporters for the other candidates on side..

    Democrat voters have a habit of just not voting if their #1 candidate isn't on the ticket.

    I've said it before , the single most important thing for a Democrat win is simply getting people into the voting booth.

    To do that they have to make sure that each of the losing candidates loudly and profusely supports the eventual Presidential candidate and works hard to get their supporters to vote for that person.

    What was the tag line again? "Vote Blue no matter who"


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    #756
    stefanovich
    Registered Users Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    This is crucial..

    Whoever wins needs to keep the supporters for the other candidates on side..

    Democrat voters have a habit of just not voting if their #1 candidate isn't on the ticket.

    I've said it before , the single most important thing for a Democrat win is simply getting people into the voting booth.

    To do that they have to make sure that each of the losing candidates loudly and profusely supports the eventual Presidential candidate and works hard to get their supporters to vote for that person.

    What was the tag line again? "Vote Blue no matter who"

    Trump won by taking the exact opposite approach than you are suggesting.

    "Vote blue no matter who" - what braindead moron came up with that?


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    #757
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,292 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    stefanovich wrote: »
    Trump won by taking the exact opposite approach than you are suggesting.

    "Vote blue no matter who" - what braindead moron came up with that?

    Morons who have lost several elections because their party supporters didn't vote blue no matter who.


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    #758
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    stefanovich wrote: »
    Trump won by taking the exact opposite approach than you are suggesting.

    "Vote blue no matter who" - what braindead moron came up with that?

    He didn't. He got the Republican voters who normally vote, to vote for him. Republican voters get behind whatever candidate is up for election, 60 million voted for McCain (higher % than Trump actually based on electorate size in 2008) despite 800,000 monthly job losses under a 2 term Republican.

    There are far more Democrat voters in the US but they will only come out if the right candidate in their minds is up for election. Obviously Obama got far more black Dem votes than Clinton e.g.


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    #759
    stefanovich
    Registered Users Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    He didn't. He got the Republican voters who normally vote, to vote for him. Republican voters get behind whatever candidate is up for election, 60 million voted for McCain (higher % than Trump actually based on electorate size in 2008) despite 800,000 monthly job losses under a 2 term Republican.

    There are far more Democrat voters in the US but they will only come out if the right candidate in their minds is up for election. Obviously Obama got far more black Dem votes than Clinton e.g.

    He certainly didn't keep his fellow republican nominees on side. He attacked them all.


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    #760
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,049 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    stefanovich wrote: »
    He certainly didn't keep his fellow republican nominees on side. He attacked them all.

    No he didn't, because he didn't have to

    That's the whole point. GOP voters generally speaking will vote for the red candidate no matter what. They are party 1st and then personality a very very distant second . Hence all the talk about people " holding their noses" and voting for Trump etc. Particularly when he was running against Hillary Clinton.

    Dem voters however are far more 'sensitive' and if they don't feel that the candidate ticks all the required boxes they simply stay at home.

    If Dem voters are as party loyal in 2020 as GOP voters historically have been ,then they will be well on the way to a win


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    #761
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,873 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    stefanovich wrote: »
    He certainly didn't keep his fellow republican nominees on side. He attacked them all.

    It’s like you live in an alternative universe. He attacked them during the primaries and then they all came out and campaigned for him in the end.

    The GOP has a solid base, the Democrats don’t.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #762
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,350 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Brian? wrote: »
    It’s like you live in an alternative universe. He attacked them during the primaries and then they all came out and campaigned for him in the end.

    The GOP has a solid base, the Democrats don’t.

    Indeed. Trump compared his wife to Ted Cruz' saying Cruz wife wasn't as good looking and that Cruz's father was involved in JFK's assassination and now Cruz is behind Trump. Meanwhile how many Democrats refuse to back Pelosi or distanced themselves from Obama during the congressional elections during his term


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    #763
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,014 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    If you only briefly looked at US politics, you could be forgiven for thinking Nancy was a communist, pro open borders, right wing capitalist who was in the wrong party, such was how she was attacked by Dems on all sides.:pac:


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    #764
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,292 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Many Sanders supporters will never back a global free trade guy like Biden over Trump.

    Many Biden supporters will never back Sanders, many young Democratic progressive see Sanders as only an old white Jew, Biden as a Wall St schill.

    The subsets and internal divisions in the party are significant.

    They are not like that in the Republicans.


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    #765
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,242 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Danzy wrote: »
    Many Sanders supporters will never back a global free trade guy like Biden over Trump.

    Many Biden supporters will never back Sanders, many young Democratic progressive see Sanders as only an old white Jew, Biden as a Wall St schill.

    The subsets and internal divisions in the party are significant.

    They are not like that in the Republicans.

    Depends on who they're going up against. McCain was not universally loved in the Republican party, I not infrequently saw him referred to as a RINO.

    If the opposition was viewed as a moderate Democrat, I could well see a bunch of folks just not voting at all. Only utter dislike of the alternative was bring the folks I was interacting with out to the voting booth.


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    #766
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Danzy wrote: »
    Many Sanders supporters will never back a global free trade guy like Biden over Trump.

    Many Biden supporters will never back Sanders, many young Democratic progressive see Sanders as only an old white Jew, Biden as a Wall St schill.

    36% of Sanders supports said Biden was their second choice in recent poll https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
    The subsets and internal divisions in the party are significant.

    They are not like that in the Republicans.

    There was much bigger divisions in Republican party leading up to last election yet in the end they held their nose https://www.npr.org/2016/07/18/486512303/watch-chaos-erupts-on-rnc-floor-as-nevertrump-makes-last-stand


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    #767
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    36% of Sanders supports said Biden was their second choice in recent poll https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/



    There was much bigger divisions in Republican party leading up to last election yet in the end they held their nose https://www.npr.org/2016/07/18/486512303/watch-chaos-erupts-on-rnc-floor-as-nevertrump-makes-last-stand

    I think a lot of republicans also sat it out last time as they didnt think trump could win and didnt want to invest in the losing candidate. I think its quite likely you’ll see more people out to vote for him this time around. Also with all his israel shilling there’ll be a lot more action from older jews in his favour this time around , its fantastic targetting of florida which is always a key player, the dem’s would need to do a hell of a lot to make him lose there this time.


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    #768
    peddlelies
    Closed Accounts Posts: 840 ✭✭✭peddlelies


    Biden up by 19 on Dem challengers, Trump at 48 approval according to latest Harvard/Harris poll, his highest polling since 2017.


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    #769
    The Phantom Jipper
    Registered Users Posts: 879 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    I came across some interesting polls the other day. Potentially outliers but they matched some of the leading Democrats up head to head, and surprisingly Warren comes out on top in a head to head with Biden, and was the only one to do so.

    These polls and many others can be found at the link below which is a decent resource for anyone interested in this kind of thing.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/


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    #770
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Warren is horrible.

    The longer she stays in the race the more worried I get.


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    #771
    The Phantom Jipper
    Registered Users Posts: 879 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Warren is horrible.

    The longer she stays in the race the more worried I get.

    Why is she horrible, out of interest?


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    #772
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    I think a lot of republicans also sat it out last time as they didnt think trump could win and didnt want to invest in the losing candidate. I think its quite likely you’ll see more people out to vote for him this time around. Also with all his israel shilling there’ll be a lot more action from older jews in his favour this time around , its fantastic targetting of florida which is always a key player, the dem’s would need to do a hell of a lot to make him lose there this time.
    A lot of people sat out the last election, through apathy or dislike of the candidates. What goes for Trump may also apply for the Dems.


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    #773
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    There's dozens of readings you can make about turnout and who voted; equally, whether it was the relative toxicity of Clinton as a candidate or the presumption she would coast to victory (see Susan Sarandon's promotion of Jill Stein, or Edward Snowdon's claim that voting a 3rd party was a good move with Clinton likely to stroll into the White House), many likely Democrat voters didn't vote for that candidate.

    The midterms after all showed the biggest turnout in a century; you see a strong narrative that amounts to "once bitten, twice shy; not going to let that happen again", even if it's not reflected in the actual machinations of the party itself. Given the broad support you see in polls for many Democrat friendly policies, the gerrymandering & voter suppression that occurs in states, there's an assessment that says America would be more likely to vote Democrat, but that its voting base is either disenfranchised or apathetic. While issues like gerrymandering, or the voter roll 'purges' are a slow battle, I'd be surprised if turnout in the 2020 Pres. election isn't a record high against a long period of time.


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    #774
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    peddlelies wrote: »
    Biden up by 19 on Dem challengers, Trump at 48 approval according to latest Harvard/Harris poll, his highest polling since 2017.

    Harris isn't a good poll to judge


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    #775
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    All the polls so far this week have Biden still leading big (14-19 points) in Dem primary race.

    Interestingly Biden currently leads Trump by 12 in North Carolina. I would have thought that was safe enough seat given Trump won by 3.5% in 16..guess not.

    Trump is also well behind vs Bernie

    By my calculation Trump is behind now vs Biden (and a few others Dems) in Iowa, Penn, Michigan, N Carolina, Wisconsin (all states he won in 16) and doing well in Nevada where he lost (only Biden leads him and by only 2).


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    #776
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,590 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Biden has no chance in a Presidential race. There are many reasons including his age but that little scratch of being touchy feely will become an open wound during a Presidential election.


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    #777
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    Harris isn't a good poll to judge

    Exactly. An average of all polls (including outliers like Harris and Rasmussen) has him at 41%


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    #778
    Hande hoche!
    Registered Users Posts: 7,453 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Biden has no chance in a Presidential race. There are many reasons including his age but that little scratch of being touchy feely will become an open wound during a Presidential election.
    Based on his track record, could certainly see him scuppering another run for the candidacy. Still assuming he got the nomination, could imagine him being fairly vulnerable to attack adverts etc. Think Sanders would stand a better chance in the general election.


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    #779
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I wonder if in the first debate might there be a 'stalking horse' candidate who'll act as someone to wash Biden's dirty laundry in public. None of the candidates have had to go up against each other yet, but when that time comes, I'm wondering who will get personal? Harris, Warren and Sanders seem prominent candidates and seem to play a clean game (ignoring the campaigns for a moment), while Booker, O'Rourke, Gillibrand appear to be floundering. They may look to attacking the candidates personal record in a desperate attempt to maintain visibility (see Chris Christie during the Rep. equivalent in 2015, who got a shot in the arm by going on the attack).


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    #780
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,014 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    pixelburp wrote: »
    I wonder if in the first debate might there be a 'stalking horse' candidate who'll act as someone to wash Biden's dirty laundry in public. None of the candidates have had to go up against each other yet, but when that time comes, I'm wondering who will get personal? Harris, Warren and Sanders seem prominent candidates and seem to play a clean game (ignoring the campaigns for a moment), while Booker, O'Rourke, Gillibrand appear to be floundering. They may look to attacking the candidates personal record in a desperate attempt to maintain visibility (see Chris Christie during the Rep. equivalent in 2015, who got a shot in the arm by going on the attack).


    Gabbard is the obvious one, has slagged of the Democrat establishment numerous times over the last few years and has stepped it up in her campaign. Unlikely she has much time for Biden whatsoever.

    She will have an eye on been Bernies VP also. Doing a Christie style attack on Biden would go down very well with her and Bernie's base.

    Mike Gravel is the other who will go after pretty much everyone bar Tulsi and Bernie, but unsure he will get to the debate stage.


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    #781
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,632 ✭✭✭eire4


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Warren is horrible.

    The longer she stays in the race the more worried I get.

    Any reason you hold that opinion?
    Personally she seems to me to be very articulate and actually has some fleshed out policy positions such as say on child care as an example or her wealth tax proposal.


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