Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Tuesday, 28 July, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 July to 3 August 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be bright and breezy in most places with isolated showers but quite a few locations should remain dry, trace to 2 mm rainfalls at a few others. Winds northwest 30 to 50 km/hr will ease to light and variable by later afternoon. Highs around 19 or 20 C.

TONIGHT will see increasing cloud with lows 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will become overcast with rain gradually spreading into the south and west, perhaps not reaching some parts of the east until late afternoon. Moderate southeast winds will feel rather cool without much sunshine, and highs only reaching 17 C or thereabouts. Overnight the rain will tend to push further north with isolated thundery showers possible, rather muggy with lows only falling to about 14 C. About 5-10 mm rain in general, 10-15 mm in some parts of west Munster and Connemara, west Ulster.

THURSDAY will become quite warm and humid with a few sunny breaks, lows of 14 C and highs of 22 to 24 C. There may be occasional light rain in some parts of the west and north, and moderate to strong southerly breezes.

FRIDAY will see variable cloud and isolated showers, possibly a thunderstorm in one or two spots (north central is favoured), with lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be rather average for time of year with passing showers and some brighter intervals, temperatures near 18 or 19 C. Rain will develop later Sunday and extend into the holiday Monday with 10-20 mm falls possible. Another disturbance will be along by Tuesday to cause further rainfalls then.

My local weather was sunny and intensely hot, reaching 35 degrees locally and almost 40 in some of the nearby valley locations. Luckily the nights cool off reasonably fast at our elevation (which is over 1,000 metres) so we can already feel a cool breeze coming in.

Thursday, 30 July, 2020 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the coming week will be somewhat warmer than both recent days and normal values, by 1-2 degrees. Rainfall may reach average amounts eventually (now that we're past the rather wet period of the past day). Sunshine will be challenged to meet even two thirds of normal early August values but there will be some brighter days in the mix.

FORECASTS

TODAY ... The remnants of the rainfall (which was rather heavy in the southwest overnight) will continue to push north and it will turn more partly cloudy than overcast later with quite a warm feel as temperatures push up into the 20-23 C range and humidity stays high. Moderate southerly winds will provide some relief.

TONIGHT will be very mild and humid with a slight chance of rain in the west, otherwise likely to stay mostly dry with lows only falling to 14-16 C.

FRIDAY will have intervals of cloud and sun, as slightly cooler air tries to push in but it won't feel much different from today with highs 19 to 22 C, scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm developing.

SATURDAY will definitely feel cooler with a moderate westerly breeze and cloudy skies with a few breaks, passing showers, lows of 12 C and highs of 18 C.

SUNDAY will also be rather cool with variable amounts of cloud, isolated showers, and lows near 10 C, highs near 17 C.

After some rain Sunday night, MONDAY is now looking improved with a dry slot developing between that overnight rainfall and the approaching disturbance timed for Tuesday. So by Monday afternoon it may be sunny and breezy with highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY looks rather wet again with highs near 18 C.

The longer term outlook is starting to look rather warm, will say that August is likely to average 1 to 2 deg above normal which will be 2 to 3 above July's sub-normal outcome. Rainfall in the month will likely be at least average if not slightly above.

My local weather has stayed broiling hot with another day of sunshine and 35 degrees. We expect slight relief by Sunday here but it's only falling back to the high 20s then drifting back up towards low 30s later next week, so while no new fires yet, the wildfire hazard is increasing, fortunately no dry lightning reported in this heat wave so far.

Saturday, 1 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Aug 2020 will be slightly warmer than average, near normal for rainfall and sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out reasonably dry in most places with showers becoming longer intervals of light to moderate rain in some cases by afternoon and evening. Highs near 18 C, rainfalls 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT will see an end to the rain with partial clearing later, just a few isolated showers by morning, lows near 10 or 11 C.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy with passing showers although not every location will see them, amounts trace to about 5 mm in some parts of west and north. Moderate southwest winds at times, highs 16 to 18 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with rain arriving later or overnight, highs near 20 C.

TUESDAY will see frequent showers, 10-20 mm rain and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY could also see a few showers with highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY is likely to be a dry day between systems with some sunshine and highs close to 20 C.

FRIDAY will become rather warm and humid with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, highs near 22 C.

Although next weekend will somewhat resemble this weekend, there won't be as much cloud or rain involved then a stronger high will develop by around Monday 10th, lasting for a few days, so there could be a decent summery interval then with highs reaching low 20s. This is expected to transition to cloudy and eventually wet weather as the high builds to the northeast and allows east winds to take over.

My local weather has remained sunny and hot again with the high near 36 C on Friday. Some brutal heat developed to our south and places in WA, OR and ID reached the low 40s or near 110 F. With a south wind bringing that air in here tonight, it is not cooling down very much (27 C at midnight here). We are going to get some minor relief with scattered thunderstorms developing and a cooler although still quite warm air mass building in from the northwest by Sunday, highs should be back to a more normal (for here) 25-30 C range. Hurricane Isaias is causing havoc in the weather models as its likely track is close to the coast but possibly inland at times, always a difficult forecasting scenario when tropical systems have one foot on land and one on sea. It is still expected to reach various parts of the U.S. east coast by Monday-Tuesday, currently near Andros Island in the Bahamas (category one).

Monday, 3 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 August will be warmer than average by 1-2 deg, somewhat less rain than normal although parts of the north may reach normal, and sunshine not too far from seasonal averages, improving during the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers but staying mostly dry until late in the day when rain is expected. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, 5 to 10 mm possibly in west, central and northern counties. Lows will be mild, 13 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy, sometimes quite windy on Atlantic coasts, with rain largely confined to west and north, a few showers elsewhere. Highs 18 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY will see further showers, some becoming heavy and thundery by mid-day in the south and east. Warm and humid with highs near 20 C.

THURSDAY will be more settled with some sunny intervals and highs 21 to 24 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast at times with passing showers and risk of a thunderstorm, highs 20 to 23 C.

The weekend will be largely settled with near normal temperatures. It may warm up again by about Monday and Tuesday of the following week, then seems likely to become more unsettled towards mid-month.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny but hazy with high cloud dimming the sunshine, still quite hot with highs reaching 32 C. It has cleared up since sunset and feels refreshingly cooler although I don't think the heat will be much less intense in coming days, 27 to 30 C still quite warm for here.

Isaias, borderline intensity between strong tropical storm and weak cat-1 hurricane, will move rapidly into the Carolinas, bringing downpours to most of the eastern U.S. over the next day or two. The centre will be close to New York City by Tuesday morning and well off into Quebec and Labrador by Tuesday night. The main impact will probably be locally flooding rainfalls of 75 to 150 mm in parts of the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, NJ and e PA, metro NYC, and then less rain further along its track as it weakens and accelerates.

Wednesday, 5 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS -- Once we get through today's unsettled and briefly stormy conditions, most of the coming week (to the 11th) will be very warm and dry much of the time, although scattered showers and thunderstorms may interrupt that on Friday. Temperatures may average as much as 3 deg above normal. Sunshine will improve after today, even perhaps by later today.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cloudy and damp, with heavy showers developing and the risk of a heavy thunderstorm in some places. This cluster will form over west Munster within the next two hours and will move briskly east and northeast to reach the east coast by about 11:00 a.m. to noon. Some gusty winds, hail and locally intense downpours could occur during this time frame. The weather will improve steadily after mid-day with clearing spreading from west coast into central and then eastern counties during the afternoon. Winds may be blustery at times with the clearance, southwest to west 50 to 70 km/hr. Even higher gusts could occur during any storms or heavy showers. Highs will reach about 20 C. Rainfalls will be rather variable, 5 to 15 mm will be the range for most places but 25 mm could fall in a few locations (at a guess, Limerick to Athlone to Dundalk would be the zone most likely to see locally heavy amounts).

TONIGHT will feature partly cloudy to clear skies and lows around 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY will start out sunny then clouds may increase, but it will be quite warm and rather humid with south to southwest breezes and highs 21 to 24 C (possibly a bit higher inland southeast).

FRIDAY will have another active frontal passage with showers and thunderstorms, possibly more widespread and intense further north this time, then skies will begin to clear during the afternoon. Lows near 15 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

SATURDAY will bring sunny intervals and highs near 21 C.

SUNDAY will be hazy, sunny and quite warm with highs near 24 C.

The warm spell will last for a few days then more cloud and showers can be expected later next week, timing quite uncertain this far out.

My local weather remained sunny and very warm on Tuesday, the high reaching 32 C with low humidity, pleasant clear conditions at midnight. Isaias rumbled through the eastern United States with some locally heavy rainfalls and isolated tornado outbreaks adding to the wind damage that the tropical storm produced more generally (except for the tornado streaks, maximum gusts were around 50-55 knots). The storm is now much weaker and crossing into southern Quebec.

Friday, 7 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 August 2020

-- Temperatures will average 3 deg above normal values (which would be near 20 C daytime highs, near 12 for overnight lows).
-- Rainfall is rather uncertain with guidance split on how much might affect Ireland, see forecast for discussion.
-- Sunshine is likely to average about the normal amount which is 4.5 hours a day with regional variations.


FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some lines of showers and thunderstorms pushing into the northern half of the country from the Atlantic, and with some isolated showers further south at times. One or two of these could be heavy with gusty winds, hail and briefly torrential rainfalls. Warm sunshine will occur between these fronts, so the weather will be quite changeable especially across Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster. Highs near 23 C away from somewhat cooler Atlantic coasts. A sharp wind shift may occur with the front now located in central Connacht, winds are strong south to southeast ahead of it, and moderate westerly after it passes.

TONIGHT will see any remnants of these showers dying out by midnight, with clear and calm conditions towards morning, fog patches likely and lows 8 to 12 C.

SATURDAY will bring warm, hazy sunshine and local sea breezes in an otherwise quite light wind pattern, highs 21 to 24 C.

SUNDAY will be similar with increasing higher cloud layers and the risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the south and east by evening, in a light east to northeast flow. Lows near 11 C and highs near 22 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY pose a forecasting challenge as some guidance shows heavy thundery showers forming and becoming rather widespread especially in the south and east. Other guidance seems to be leaning more towards that development being confined to Britain with outbreaks in Ireland rather limited. We'll split the difference for now and say partly to mostly cloudy skies both days, rather warm and humid, with a moderate chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms forming each day, locally heavy amounts 20 to 40 mm possible with those. Highs both days 20 to 24 C and rather warm, muggy nights with lows 12 to 16 C.

This warm and rather unsettled spell will likely continue with less prolific amounts of rain later in the week and similar temperatures in the mid 20s. In general, it will be quite warm for about a week to ten days then a rather unsettled and cooler interval is likely with temperatures dropping to the 16-19 C range by about the 20th of August.

My local weather changed considerably on Thursday with several passing showers and a very heavy thunderstorm around 7 p.m. with strong wind gusts and a quick 15 mm of rain making a daily total near 25 mm. There were a few brighter intervals between the showers but the highest temperature was only about 22 C. This has all pushed off to our east now and skies are overcast with fog over the hills.

Sunday, 9 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 August, 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 to 3 deg above normal, although falling closer to average near the end.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent of normal but locally could exceed normal in isolated heavy showers.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will feature long intervals of hazy sunshine but clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon and there could be one or two isolated showers over parts of the inland north. Warm with highs 22 to 26 C.

TONIGHT will be rather cloudy with showers or thunderstorms possible by morning. Warm and muggy with lows around 15 C.

MONDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with outbreaks of showers or thunderstorms in parts of the southeast, east and some central counties. Warm and humid with highs 21 to 24 C.

TUESDAY will also be rather cloudy although longer intervals of sunshine possible in the west, with more outbreaks of thundery showers possible in the east. Lows near 16 C and highs near 23 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 24 C.

THURSDAY will see increasing cloud, isolated showers, and somewhat cooler temperatures, highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are currently looking cooler and rather unsettled with showers moving from northwest to southeast across the country, a few may be heavy. Highs near 18 C.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and pleasant but rather cool at 22 C.

Monday, 10 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for 10 to 16 Aug 2020 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, probably the higher values will be further west.
-- Rainfall looks quite variable, eventually some parts of the inland south may exceed normal values by 25 or even 50 per cent, but other regions may not pass 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal, except for a few parts of the far northwest which may reach normal amounts.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Rather cloudy with a few brighter intervals mainly in west and north, some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, still some guidance showing nearly dry conditions in Ireland compared to widespread heavy showers in Wales and western England, so the outcome rather uncertain, if any heavier showers develop they would likely be along a sea breeze boundary in Leinster or east Munster. Highs 18 to 21 C east, to 21-23 C west and north.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few remnant showers dying out over south and east, muggy, lows 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Again, some uncertainty remains, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms likely in parts of Leinster and east Munster, only a few isolated showers elsewhere, highs 20 to 23 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A rising chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms developing across parts of the inland south, remaining dry in some parts of the west and north, under variable amounts of cloud. Rather warm still with lows around 14 C and highs around 23 C although any prolonged rainfall would be accompanied by temperatures closer to 17 or 18 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms across parts of the south, variable cloud further north with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 22 C.

OUTLOOK for weekend of 15th-16th is for this unsettled and slightly warmer trend to continue with temperatures edging closer to normal each day, around 19 or 20 C likely but in any longer intervals of sunshine could reach 22 or 23 C.

A more unsettled and cooler regime is likely to become established in the following week.

My local weather was very good with sunshine and a few clouds, refreshing northwest breezes and highs near 24 C.

Tuesday, 11 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for 11 to 17 August 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be highly variable from place to place, but could exceed normal eventually in parts of the inland south.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be hazy with some sunny intervals, especially further west, with a gradual increase in cloud. There will likely be outbreaks of thundery showers by afternoon and evening, most likely in east, inland south and midlands, but not ruled out elsewhere either. Amounts will be generally small but could be locally a lot higher in small-scale but intense cells. Highs 21 to 24 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, muggy and warm with lows 12 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy, humid with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, again generally small rainfall amounts but with the potential for heavier showers in a few locations. Highs 21 to 24 C.

THURSDAY is likely to produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms and more of these could become heavy, rainfall amounts generally 5 to 15 mm but locally as high as 30 mm possibly. Lows near 15 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

FRIDAY will continue the partly cloudy, unsettled theme with a few more showers likely, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

SATURDAY also looks quite unsettled with more widespread showers again, and slightly cooler, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud with showers and highs near 19 C.

The outlook for the following week is very unsettled with frequent rain and rather cool temperatures at times, as the regime shifts more to a northwesterly flow around low pressure over Britain, and temperatures therefore may be only in the mid-teens especially during rainfall.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with cloudy intervals, breezy and warmer again with highs back up around 28 C.

Thursday, 13 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


Some parts of the south and west have seen heavy rainfalls overnight, with counties Cork, Limerick, Clare and Galway receiving 15 to 30 mm of rain. There may be some localized flooding underway in some of these counties this morning.

The weather pattern is fairly static and trends will generally continue to resemble what has been happening for the past few days, warm and dry in parts of the north, much wetter to the south. Sunshine will also be more likely most days further north too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue unsettled, warm and humid with more outbreaks of thundery showers expected in parts of the south and west. Isolated showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out elsewhere, but the probability increases to nearly 100% for parts of Munster and southwest Connacht, where further rainfalls of 10 to 30 mm are possible. Highs will range from near 20 C in the south and west, to 24 C in the midlands, inland parts of Leinster and Ulster.

TONIGHT will see little change in this pattern with further outbreaks of thunderstorms possible in the south, more likely partly cloudy to overcast, but quite warm and humid further north. Lows 13 to 17 C.

FRIDAY will probably see more outbreaks of thundery showers across the southern counties but spreading at times further north, highs near 23 C.

SATURDAY the showers and thunderstorms could become even more widespread in southern and central counties with some northern counties remaining dry, lows near 14 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with more isolated thundery showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 23 C.

MONDAY may begin to dry out somewhat in general but with isolated showers still likely, lows near 12 C and highs around 22 C.

For several days around Tuesday to Thursday (timing somewhat uncertain in this slow-moving situation) a dry ridge of higher pressure will form and skies may be less overcast in all areas, with temperatures continued rather warm, highs 22 to 26 C.

Towards the end of next week Atlantic weather systems will begin to push back from the west and it will gradually turn cooler in stages, with highs falling into the 15 to 19 C range by the second week of the outlook period.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly sunny and hazy with some smoke from distant fires south of the border, highs around 22 C. We are heading back into heat wave conditions over the next few days. My forecasts may not appear every day during the next five day interval as we are heading out on a short road trip but I will have internet access and hope to keep the file updated.

Saturday, 15 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 August 2020 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, however the last few days of this interval will likely be somewhat below average, so the trend is downward most of the way.
-- Rainfalls will average around 25 to 50 per cent above normal and could be as much as twice normal in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will average near normal in the north but only 50 per cent of normal in the south.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy in the south with further outbreaks of showery or thundery rain, 10 to 20 mm local accumulations likely. These showers will begin to spread into some central counties later on. Parts of the north will remain dry with longer sunny intervals. Highs near 20 C in the south to near 24 C in the north.

TONIGHT will bring further rain at times and muggy conditions with some fog or mist developing, lows near 15 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, this time somewhat more widespread and less confined to the south. Highs 20 to 23 C.

MONDAY will bring heavy showers and thunderstorms with lows near 15 C and highs near 23 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms, lows near 15 C and highs near 23 C.

WEDNESDAY now appears to be the day that the Atlantic pushes back with rain spreading in from the west and becoming quite heavy in many areas of the country, with temperatures likely to stall out around 18 C. Winds will become moderate to strong southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

THURSDAY will be breezy and cool with passing showers, highs 15 to 19 C.

The trend will then be towards considerably cooler weather and sometimes rather windy with intervals of rain separated by partly cloudy spells, through the weekend of the 22nd-23rd. Temperatures may only be in the 15 to 17 C range by then, lasting into part of the following week before a slight warming trend returns.

My local weather (now on the coast near Vancouver BC) was sunny with a high of about 25 C. Expecting hot and sunny weather all weekend here and during any return travel we might undertake.

Monday, 17 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 August 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a downward trend through the period.
-- Rainfall will average as much as twice normal in parts of Munster, south Connacht and south Leinster, to near normal further north. It should be noted that this trend appears likely to amplify towards the end of the period and continue with even larger departures possible in the second week.
-- Sunshine will be fortunate to reach even half of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, especially in the southern counties where 15-30 mm amounts are possible. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be misty or foggy with further showers likely, lows 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with more heavy showers and thunderstorms at times, briefly clearing the south later and moving into northern counties. Highs 17 to 21 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a band of heavy rain forming during the early morning hours and moving gradually north, with 15-30 mm amounts possible. Winds strong east to southeast at times with this rain (50-80 km/hr) will veer more to southerly and ease later in the day. Temperatures steady near 17 or 18 C.

THURSDAY will bring another interval of heavy rain (possibly 20-40 mm) moving up from the south into Munster and then Connacht, with somewhat lesser amounts further east. Lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C. By the time this rain event is underway, some moderate or even severe flooding is possible especially in parts of west Munster generally to the east and southeast of Limerick across southern Tipps, eastern Cork and north Waterford. This situation needs to be closely watched.

FRIDAY will continue unsettled and rather cool with passing showers, gusty southwest to west winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

The outlook for the weekend is cool, breezy and showery although it may be somewhat less inclement than the days to follow when heavy rainfalls could resume. Some models are showing two months' worth of rain falling in parts of west Munster in the next ten days.

My local weather is about the exact opposite of that with generally sunny and hot conditions encountered on our return trip earlier on Sunday, highest car temperature reading matching the official weather station report in the same area was 39 C (we got out of the a/c to feel that briefly and went on our way). Luckily at home cloud had spread in from the south during the afternoon and it never got much higher than 28 C here although it hasn't dropped much from that yet at 0045h local time.

Wednesday, 19 August, 2020 __ Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT in place for strong winds and heavy rainfalls ... see forecasts for details as there will be several periods when severe weather may develop Wed to Sat.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring intervals of rain and increasingly strong east to southeast winds 40 to 70 km/hr at times. The rain will be somewhat variable in amounts (5-25 mm range) as a ragged band moves north rather gradually all day. The southeast may get the heavier amounts. Temperatures steady 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT may become quite stormy -- the details are still not totally clear as model guidance ranges from west coast to Irish Sea in terms of where this developing storm will track. The most reliable guidance suggests a direct hit on the south coast with the centre moving north through the midlands into Ulster. This means that all regions have some chance of seeing strong winds of 70 to 120 km/hr (with a slight risk of even higher gusts along some coasts). The eastern half of the country is more likely to get southeast to southwest winds, while the western half is more likely to see west to northwest winds as storm "Ellen" (which is actually a remnant of T.S. Kyle's former energy) hits some part of the country around late evening. Rainfalls of 15-45 mm are possible with areas near and just west of the track most likely to see the heaviest amounts. Temperatures will be steady near 16 C east to 13 C west. Some thunderstorms may be embedded in the rainfall from "Ellen." A storm surge may develop somewhere on the south coast between Cork and Wexford with coastal flooding possible in that zone.

THURSDAY will continue quite windy for a time, depending on the actual track Ellen takes, then will be more moderate later but a second low could form to the southwest of Ireland and hit late in the day with a second round of strong winds. Heavy and possibly thundery rainfall will become showery, some partial clearing may follow between the two lows. High temperatures will be 17 to 21 C. Total rainfalls by end of the day could approach 50-60 mm in some places and flooding cannot be ruled out.

FRIDAY we are not out of the woods as yet another significant low is quite possible tracking near the west coast, but a frontal system may extend from this to the east coast with locally heavy and thundery downpours there. Lows near 14 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY should see the start of a gradual improvement to less stormy weather although continued unsettled and turning a bit cooler, moderate southwest to west winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking rather cool and showery in a west to northwest flow, highs around 15 to 17 C.

The further outlook continues quite unsettled with more chances for significant rain and wind at times.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly sunny with a few cloudy intervals, and hot, with highs reaching 34 C. Clear and pleasant outside now however.

There will likely be an update to this forecast around mid-afternoon to 6 p.m. depending on how storm Ellen evolves. The nucleus for this storm is currently off the northwest coast of Spain around 43N 15W and heading northeast. It has not yet developed much intensity so this is part of the uncertainty, as some models show rapid development around 1800h to midnight, others show a more gradual development and usually those options are further east too.

Update (2) _ Landfall predictions (Wed 19 Aug 2020 _ 8:45 p.m.)
_________________________________________

The eye of "Ellen" (Kyle in drag?) has come into view on Shannon radar and is located about 70 miles south of Baltimore heading north-northeast. This makes landfall more likely to be close to Kinsale and a track across the Cork-Cobh region towards Limerick. Severe wind impacts are more likely to the east of this track as far east as Waterford and possibly Wexford. Landfall is estimated for 10 p.m. with the onset of strongest winds around then to 11 p.m.

With the rapid development, would anticipate some gusts above 140 km/hr and substantial wind damage potential. Storm surge possible east Cork and Waterford coasts.

Move to safer shelter if possible, if currently located in a caravan park or very exposed coastal building. Wind speeds will gradually reduce along the track as the storm moves inland but higher south-facing slopes could see damaging gusts inland too.

Friday, 21 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 August 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 25 to 50 per cent above normal, higher values in the north.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of showery rain more frequent in west and north. Winds moderate southwest 50 to 70 km/hr will sometimes increase to near 90 km/hr in some coastal and exposed higher locations. Highs 16 to 19 C. Rainfall accumulations 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT will remain cloudy with further showers, lows around 9 to 11 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, and somewhat cooler again with highs 15 to 18 C, winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will have less windy conditions and variable amounts of cloud with a few showers, then an interval of rain setting in by evening west, overnight further east. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will bring some intervals of rain followed by partly cloudy conditions, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY looks very wet and windy now, an Atlantic low not quite a match for Ellen but rather autumnal looking, will produce 20-40 mm rainfalls and gusty southwest winds at times with temperatures held down to the 13-16 C range for most, possibly closer to 19 C in parts of Munster.

Some slight improvements should follow (it could hardly be otherwise) but then more wind and rain is likely to follow any breaks, and temperatures will stay in the near normal range overall, with little variation night to daytime.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy to overcast, rather warm and humid, with a few spotty showers giving just trace amounts of rain. Highs here were near 26 C.

Sunday, 23 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 August 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average only around 50 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few showers, isolated thunderstorms, and a few sunny breaks mainly in the midlands, inland southeast. Highs only 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, lows near 8 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, showers rather isolated until rain arrives late in the day with southeast to east winds becoming strong by evening. Highs 17 to 19 C.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY, a well-organized low will track across Ireland in the overnight hours, with widespread rainfalls of 20 to 40 mm. Winds for most of the country will be moderate easterly followed by moderate northwesterly once the low passes, but near the south coast some stronger southwest winds could develop with gusts to around 110 km/hr possible there. Temperatures will be steady near 16 C south, 13 C north during this event and well into the day on Tuesday, then could rise slightly with any sunshine by Tuesday afternoon.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY may bring some light rain as weak low pressure forms off the southwest coast and tracks east; this will lead to cool, overcast and drizzly weather with highs only around 15 C.

Then the following weekend seems likely to be more settled but cool for late August with overnight lows possibly falling to the 3-7 C range, and daytime highs 12 to 16 C.

The first part of September looks slightly warmer again although not much above average for time of year.

My local weather on Saturday was mainly sunny with patchy high cloud, and it was somewhat cooler than most of the previous week, with highs around 23 C.

Tuesday, 25 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's forecast except that about half the expected totals, or more, have fallen overnight, so from now on rainfall will be closer to normal values although there's still a fair amount to come in some places. It will also be quite cool for time of year, and cloudy much of the time until the weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become very windy in many areas, starting quite soon in western counties, mid-morning in the midlands, and mid-day on the east coast. As storm "Francis" tracks from its current location near Galway to the north Irish Sea this afternoon, strong winds will wrap around the circulation but in the meantime an extensive area of slack pressure gradients crossing the country is resulting in a temporary decrease in wind speeds for many places. That pause should end rather suddenly when the squally showers feeding in behind the low race through the midlands towards Leinster. Some squally thunderstorms are also possible in the inland south and southeast as a cold front develops this morning; this feature may go on to produce severe weather in Wales and England later. Temperatures during this morning pause may reach 19-20 C then fall off to 15-16 C when the Atlantic air arrives. Once that happens, expect intervals of very blustery west winds 80-120 km/hr to develop, with bands of squally showers, wind-driven rain, and hail possible. Although west Munster has already seen torrential downpours, there may be a few more heavy showers to exacerbate severe flooding underway in a few places. The northern third of the country and all of Northern Ireland, meanwhile, will remain in east to northeast winds and periods of rain, with temperatures steady around 14 C. Some further rainfalls of 15-25 mm are possible (many places have seen 20-40 already).

TONIGHT the wind and rain should die out gradually although with a few blustery and wet intervals likely, lows will drop to about 9 C, with west to northwest winds 50-80 km/hr decreasing to 30-50 km/hr by morning.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with just isolated showers, but a weak front may push through during the afternoon bringing 2-5 mm rainfalls to some parts of the west and north. Highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will become overcast with outbreaks of light rain and chilly east to northeast winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C north, 17 C south.

FRIDAY will see gradual clearing with rain dying out across the south, cool with lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

The WEEKEND will be generally settled but cool for late August, overnight lows 3-7 C and daytime highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY looks like it may turn quite unsettled again with wind and rain returning, highs near 16 C.

My local weather saw increasing high cloud all day with a warm high of 28 C. Meanwhile, "Marco" has dissipated along the Gulf coast but "Laura" is leaving Cuba and entering a favourable environment for rapid development, and could become a major hurricane by Tuesday before slamming into the west Louisiana east Texas border area, possibly as a cat-3 hurricane by then, or at least a strong cat-2 (resembling Ike back in 2008 IIRC, powerful enough to do quite a bit of damage along a flat populated coastline).

Thursday, 27 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Aug to 2 Sep 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavier in the south where 10-20 mm possible. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible too. Rather cool with highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with further light rain at times, lows near 8 C.

FRIDAY will bring a gradual improvement as skies slowly clear from the north and west, but there could be some persistent residual showers in parts of the southeast. Quite cool with moderate northerly to northeasterly breezes of 30 to 50 km/hr, highs 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine with isolated showers mainly near north coast. Moderate northerly breezes and cool, morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs 13 to 16 C.

SUNDAY will also be partly cloudy but there could be longer sunny intervals for some, and a similar temperature range to Saturday, morning lows 3 to 6 C and afternoon highs 14 to 18 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with showers or intervals of rain, highs near 18 C.

The outlook for next week is generally rather unsettled with a gradual warming trend, highs could be into the low 20s by end of the week.

My local weather was sunny and the high near 25 C on Wednesday. Hurricane Laura moved into southwest Louisiana in the past few hours as a cat-4 hurricane, but will steadily weaken moving further north. There is expected to be a damaging storm surge moving well inland across a very flat region that stays quite close to sea level for many miles inland, around Lake Charles. Remnants of the storm will join up with low pressure further north over the Great Lakes around Friday evening and the remnant storm will move into the Atlantic off New England by the weekend. Some remnants of this will be seen over the eastern Atlantic near Ireland by about Tuesday-Wednesday of next week but the main influence it may have for Ireland is to become part of the warming trend.

Saturday, 29 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 29 Aug to 4 Sep 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers near some coasts mainly, in a cool but moderate northerly flow with winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs only 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will become clear in many places, with some cloudy intervals near coasts. Lows inland will fall to about 3 to 6 C, staying closer to 8 C along coasts.

SUNDAY will start out sunny with increasing afternoon and evening cloud, highs 15 to 18 C. Light winds for most places.

MONDAY will be breezy and some showery light rain will bring 3-5 mm amounts, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with moderate southwest winds, rain arriving late in the day, rather muggy with highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy with intervals of rain, about 5-10 mm expected, highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 18 C.

In the further outlook, it may turn slightly cooler again around Friday but then a slight warming trend may follow, in general the month of September looks to be starting off with rather bland and near-normal conditions.

My local weather was sunny and very warm with highs near 29 C. Currently clear and 17 C at around midnight, a good view of the moon sitting between (and slightly below) Jupiter and Saturn. If you have clear skies this evening, you'll see the Moon below Saturn by that time, brighter (than Saturn) Jupiter off to the right. Mars is becoming quite prominent these evenings rising shortly after sunset and high in the east-south-east by 11 p.m.

Monday, 31 August, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's forecast. Here's the overview for the month of September -- expect a rather bland first half, followed by a more active and at times stormy second half of the month, leading to near or slightly above normal amounts of rain, and average temperatures about 0.5 to 1.0 deg above normal. Sunshine will likely be near average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will remain partly cloudy in eastern counties with only isolated showers reaching the east, while the west becomes more overcast and sees some outbreaks of light rain (2-5 mm), highs generally 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional light rain, lows near 12 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with a few breaks, rather muggy, with a few showers and highs 18 to 20 C. Winds south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will begin rather wet and blustery with a frontal system bringing 10-20 mm rainfalls to many areas during the overnight hours, continuing into the morning in Leinster and east Ulster. Partial clearing will follow although a trailing wave could prolong the rain near the southeast coast. Winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr, and temperatures steady 14 to 17 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy and breezy with passing showers, highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY will be similar although with fewer showers in the mix, highs near 17 C.

Higher pressure will build up over the weekend which may lead to more frequent sunny breaks and slightly higher daytime temperatures near 19 C although cooler at night (6-9 C). Fog may develop in some inland valleys.

The pattern later into September begins to look quite active and unsettled by about mid-month and there could be tropical storm remnants involved at some point with strong winds.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny during the morning, cloudy by afternoon, but dry with a high near 25 C.

Wednesday, 2 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values with much of that today.
-- Sunshine will average near normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue to produce some heavy showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm across many parts of the country, heavier in the north, midlands and Leinster, 10-20 mm amounts generally. With any sunny breaks temperatures could edge up towards 19 or 20 C but in the rain it will be closer to 16 C. This is just a bit of the energy left over from former hurricane Laura that got swept into a non-severe low pressure system late last week. Some rather blustery intervals may develop with southwest to west winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will bring partly cloudy skies with only isolated showers, the winds dying down especially inland where some fog patches are likely by morning. Lows 10-12 C.

THURSDAY will continue partly cloudy and unsettled with passing showers, moderate westerly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr, and highs near 17 C. Rainfalls 3-5 mm on average.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be similar although the amounts of rain will likely decrease generally speaking, to amounts near 1 or 2 mm each day. Some sunshine will be in the mix and temperatures will continue in the same range, lows 8-10 C and highs 15-18 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking a bit warmer as high pressure begins to circulate some subtropical air towards Ireland. It may not fully mix down through the lower layers but even so temperatures should manage to edge up towards 20 C. This interval may be more settled with few or isolated showers at most.

Much of next week is also looking fairly pleasant for this time of year with some sunshine likely, not a lot of rainfall and temperatures a bit above average, near 20 C. Eventually, however, a more active pattern emerges and some windy and wet days are likely by about mid-month or so.

My local weather on Tuesday was a little warmer but barely reached 20 C in partly cloudy conditions, but a slow warming trend is setting up here towards our long weekend.

Friday, 4 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will vary from 75% of normal in the north to 25% in the south.
-- Sunshine will be near or slightly above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few passing showers, one or two could be briefly heavy but most places will only see 1-3 mm of rain. Moderate westerly winds, highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers and lows near 9 or 10 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers or by afternoon, longer intervals of light rain or drizzle. Winds west to northwest about 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy again with showers more isolated, somewhat warmer, lows near 8 C and highs about 19 or 20 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, muggy and rather warm with highs 19 to 21 C. Rain is likely to stay off or near the north coast until afternoon then may move slowly south into parts of Connacht and Ulster.

TUESDAY will be breezy and partly cloudy to overcast, highs 18 to 20 C.

The outlook for mid-week to the weekend is for rather similar conditions to continue, partly cloudy to overcast skies much of the time and temperatures near or slightly above normal values in the 17 to 20 C range by day, nights fairly mild too.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and warmer than recent days with a high of 25 C.

Sunday, 6 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average about half of normal in some parts of the north, to near 10 per cent in the south.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see a bit of drizzle lingering in cloudy skies and westerly winds, then some clearing should develop later this morning from west to east, but followed by another increase in cloud by evening. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with drizzle turning to light or even moderate rain in some parts of north Connacht and west Ulster. It may stay dry in some parts of the south and east. Rather mild and humid with lows 13 to 15 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with the northern rain or drizzle moving east and ending. Skies may begin to clear partially by mid-day to reveal some warm hazy sunshine in some places. Highs 19 to 22 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy and quite mild to warm with occasional drizzle near north and west coasts, some sunny breaks in south and east, winds increasing to southwest 40-60 km/hr, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a bit of rain in the early morning, gusty westerly winds, then clearing during the day, with some afternoon sunshine, lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will be rather warm and cloudy with rain developing late in the day, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will become unsettled with intervals of light rain, somewhat cooler temperatures near 17 C.

The further outlook is for unsettled to stormy conditions at times, with strong lows likely to be passing near Ireland at times in the week following next weekend.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny, hazy and very warm to hot, with a high near 30 C. It has cooled off somewhat since sunset, around 15 C at midnight.

Tuesday, 8 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal but could reach closer to normal in a few parts of east and inland south.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see the warm, humid regime continue with mostly cloudy skies but with a few brighter intervals, these more prevalent in the south and east, and also scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle more likely in the west and north (not much accumulation trace to 2 mm), and warm highs 19 to 22 C. It could reach 23 or 24 if any sustained sunny intervals were to develop anywhere, this air mass is actually capable of producing even higher temperatures but an inversion is keeping the potential warmth from mixing fully through the lower atmosphere.

TONIGHT a cold front will sweep through, there could be some brief heavy or squally showers, locally heavy rainfalls are possible although generally it will only be around 3 to 5 mm for most, then a fresher and less humid air mass will replace this current one, and temperatures will fall gradually to sunrise readings near 12 C. Winds will veer from southwest to west-northwest after midnight in the 40-60 km/hr range with some higher gusts possible especially over higher terrain near the Atlantic coasts.

WEDNESDAY will see cloudy skies gradually clearing through late morning and early afternoon and there could be clear skies at times by evening. Moderate west to northwest winds at times, highs 16 to 18 C. Fairly cool overnight with lows 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with lows 3 to 6 C, and highs 17 to 21 C. Southwest winds will increase late in the day and rain will arrive.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain and somewhat cooler temperatures with highs around 16 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be warm and humid with highs 19 to 22 C. Increasing cloud with rain at times in the west and north, becoming quite windy also.

MONDAY and possibly several following days will likely stay quite warm as the cold front pushing close to Ireland on Sunday evening may then ripple back north as a warm front and weaken, leaving Ireland in a warm southerly flow for several days ahead of slowly advancing frontal systems. Highs could be into the low 20s with isolated mid-20s.

This warm regime next week is likely to lead to a more active period but with rather unpredictable tropical systems on the move now (two new named storms in the southern and eastern Atlantic) their possible impact on eventual outcomes will be difficult for the models to work out (which is a nice way of saying they won't work it out, I suppose).

Now as to this tropical season which has just seen its 17th named storm ten days earlier than the previous record pace set in 2005, the eventual most active season with 28, it has to be noted that only five so far have been hurricanes which is not that impressive for any recent year let alone one with 17 named storms. And only one has been a major (Laura), which is no more than average for halfway through a season. The practice of naming storms includes omission of Q, U, X, Y and Z, so that after 21 storms we would reach the W name and then move on to the Greek alphabet as we did in 2005 (no other season made it that far, and the second most active year, 1933, was in an era before storms were named anyway, since naming began, 19 is second highest). The 2005 list was augmented after the year ended with an added storm called the "Azores hurricane" placed between Stan and Tammy. This year, we have reached the R storm (Rene) ten days earlier than 2005 produced Rita, but after our S storm, the T storm will be compared to the Azores hurricane for timing, and our V storm will be compared with Tammy of 2005. Then if we get to a W storm, that one will be compared to Vince of 2005, and if we need to use the Greek alphabet, the first storm (Alpha) will actually be comparable to Wilma of 2005 in terms of being the 22nd named storm. In late 2005 there were six more storms getting named from the Greek alphabet. I have to wonder if we will manage to equal that record, or what the plan is if they run out of Greek letters too.

My local weather on Monday (which was Labour Day here) was partly cloudy, breezy and considerably cooler at 18 C, and by this evening it was clear and calm with a frosty feel (granted we are up in the mountains here). All of this has led to the formation of a powerful storm system over Colorado which is rapidly developing tonight. There is already heavy wet snow in higher parts of Wyoming and this will spread into the Rockies of Colorado. It will likely be a cold rain around Denver but mixing with snow especially to the west of that city. Very strong northeast winds have caused numerous problems throughout the western U.S. and southern B.C. with power lines down in places, blowing dust closing highways, and any forest fires rapidly spreading. This regime has now spread into most of Nevada and Utah but heat-baked California will not get the colder northeast winds, instead this will lead to hot "Santa Ana" winds which is the last thing they need given the widespread forest and rangeland fires already underway there. I am fearful of a major disaster developing along the lines of the 2018 Paradise event somewhere with these stronger winds setting in. Not hearing much about wildfires in the Great Basin states or northern Arizona but if they have any those will also be accelerating with these winds (which have gusted to 100 km/hr in places).

Could update by mentioning that both Paulette (sorry I think I called her Philippe oops) and Rene are now forecast to become minimal hurricanes later this week so the count might reach 17/7/1. Of all the seasons that reached 18 named storms, only last year's 18/6/3 finish resembles what we might get this year (in terms of a ratio of hurricanes to named storms), most of the others managed at least 10 hurricanes and four or five majors. 2005 had a final count of 28/15/7.