Property Market 2018

Bob24 · 13-04-2018 9:42am

izzyflusky wrote: »

Those daft ads for new builds are very misleading. I bought in a development which has an ad to this day mentioning their 3 and 4 beds available, when in reality ALL 3 beds went quickly and only a hanful of the 4 beds are available (the less desirable ones). Not only that but the prices have not been updated, they are at least 10k more than advertised.

Yes - it should be clear to everyone that the point of an ad on Daft is to attract interest and EAs/developers are not too bothered with accuracy on price/availability. Leaving outdated ads online for sold-out units in order to gather interest for harder to sell units in the same development and/or build-up a prospective buyers’ database is a classic trick (and it actually applies to anything - it’s basically the same general idea as Tesco advertising a cheap product on which they know they have restricted stock to get people in the shop and have them buy something else).

Henbabani · 13-04-2018 9:52am

Bob24 wrote: »

izzyflusky wrote: »

Those daft ads for new builds are very misleading. I bought in a development which has an ad to this day mentioning their 3 and 4 beds available, when in reality ALL 3 beds went quickly and only a hanful of the 4 beds are available (the less desirable ones). Not only that but the prices have not been updated, they are at least 10k more than advertised.

Yes - it should be clear to everyone that the point of an ad on Daft is to attract interest and EAs/developers are not too bothered with accuracy on price/availability. Leaving outdated ads online for sold-out units in order to gather interest for harder to sell units in the same development and/or build-up a prospective buyers’ database is a classic trick (and it actually applies to anything - it’s basically the same general idea as Tesco advertising a cheap product on which they know they have restricted stock to get people in the shop and have them buy something else).

I know about the project next to my apartment in Carrickmines, there are available apartments and they ready for delivery, maybe they increased the price but still, it's just the beginning of new homes standing empty for people to buy them, of course it's logically that people will queue for semi d in 300,00€, that's the situation today but still there are 3BDR apartments which will be empty really soon, so people should compromise and stop looking to live their live in Semi D.

izzyflusky · 13-04-2018 9:57am

There is another thread on families living in apartments. The issue is that apartment living in Ireland is not made for families. From the bad insulation to restricting children to play on the grounds or even dictating your type of flooring.

I lived in apartments while abroad where is the norm for families, but children will roam freely within the complex. I would be weary to buy an apartment here. And to be honest, if I can have my pick of a house for 300k region or an apartment for them same price, I'd rather queue.

MayoSalmon · 13-04-2018 9:57am

Another article quoting that at least 80,000 people are ready to buy houses today if there was enough supply.

Interestingly their saying it will take at least 4 years to clear that backlog.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-logjam-80000-people-would-buy-immediately-but-there-arent-enough-homes-36802516.html

Colonel Claptrap · 13-04-2018 9:58am

mel123 wrote: »

Are we going to have a rental crisis for the foreseeable?
I see it as a bit of a catch 22. I do agree about lending criteria to an extent, but say for example a couple out renting now on average or even a bit above average salaries, how are they going to save to buy a house in the next few years? Are these people stuck in a renting bubble now rather than being able to buy?

It's not a nice situation.

But if we have to choose between loosening lending restrictions or keeping rents high, I choose the latter. It's far less risky for the individuals, banks and taxpayer. Not ideal but unfortunately it's the reality we face.

Henbabani · 13-04-2018 9:59am

izzyflusky wrote: »

There is another thread on families living in apartments. The issue is that apartment living in Ireland is not made for families. From the bad insulation to restricting children to play on the grounds or even dictating your type of flooring.

I lived in apartments while abroad where is the norm for families, but children will roam freely within the complex. I would be weary to buy an apartment here. And to be honest, if I can have my pick of a house for 300k region or an apartment for them same price, I'd rather queue.

Probably it's an issue of education, in Israel most of the families live in high rinse buildings( there's thousands of 15-25 storey buildings).
Hope someone will wake up because in Dublin not everyone can live on the ground.

draiochtanois · 13-04-2018 10:11am

This post has been deleted.

izzyflusky · 13-04-2018 10:18am

Henbabani wrote: »

Probably it's an issue of education, in Israel most of the families live in high rinse buildings( there's thousands of 15-25 storey buildings).
Hope someone will wake up because in Dublin not everyone can live on the ground.

I agree with you there, maybe they should start marketing them to that group and changing the rules to make them child friendly. I grew up in an apartment myself and did not jump out of the balcony (I keep seeing that as an argument against it haha).

Boatswain · 13-04-2018 10:19am

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Another article quoting that at least 80,000 people are ready to buy houses today if there was enough supply.

Interestingly their saying it will take at least 4 years to clear that backlog.

That's all rubbish according to some people, they are making it up to push their own agenda and the reality is Irish house prices will fall off a cliff next year. Right?

Cyrus · 13-04-2018 10:20am

Boatswain wrote: »

the reality is Irish house prices will fall off a cliff next year. Right?

im 99% sure that wont happen

Bob24 · 13-04-2018 10:41am

Cyrus wrote: »

im 99% sure that wont happen

I’m not sure I would say 99% (even though I would like to as I purchased recently).

I’d definitely agree that as long as the internal mechanics of the market remain the same as today there is not reason for prices to fall - and if you take a 1 year timeframe this is the most likely scenario.

*but* various kinds of external shocks could change that. And while I wouldn’t give it a very high probability in the next 12 months, I would definitely set it higher than 1%. Probably more somewhere between 5 and 10%.

LirW · 13-04-2018 10:52am

izzyflusky wrote: »

Those daft ads for new builds are very misleading. I bought in a development which has an ad to this day mentioning their 3 and 4 beds available, when in reality ALL 3 beds went quickly and only a hanful of the 4 beds are available (the less desirable ones). Not only that but the prices have not been updated, they are at least 10k more than advertised.

Good oul' marketing trick, developments listing a price with let's say 270k for a 3bed, somewhere in the wall of text it says they start from 270k, you get there and it turns out that there are only 2 or 3 houses from 25 that are 270 because they are terraced or have a tiny plot and the rest is a good bit higher.

Bob24 · 13-04-2018 10:58am

Henbabani wrote: »

Probably it's an issue of education, in Israel most of the families live in high rinse buildings( there's thousands of 15-25 storey buildings).
Hope someone will wake up because in Dublin not everyone can live on the ground.

Clearly Dublin has a problem with being too widespread and not tall enough to manage its population and the way it is going to increase.

It’s a combination of cultural factors whereby many people think a house is the only way to go for a family, and the fact that (partly because of that thinking) very few apartments here are actually suitable for family living (so even if someone is fine with apartment living, it is hard to find one which was designed for family living) and very few if any apartment blocks are mostly filled with owner-occupiers (which will usually make them more friendly to families in the long term).

I personally grew up in apartments in continental Europe and definitely prefer apartment living in central and well connected areas with a mix of homes, shop, and offices compared to living in a house in a low density residential neighbourhood whereby you can’t do much without a car (whether it is buying a pint of milk, going to my GP, or going to the office, beeing able to walk there or reach it quickly via public transport is a higher priority for me that having a small back garden - which I would want to bother maintaining anyway).

But the issue is while I got an apartment which thicks all those boxes and more (20 mins walk to the city center, good and quick bus service to the airport, etc), in spite of having a suitable budget I did have to compromise on things like generous storage space because it simply doesn’t exist (or at least it is very rare).

izzyflusky · 13-04-2018 10:59am

LirW wrote: »

Good oul' marketing trick, developments listing a price with let's say 270k for a 3bed, somewhere in the wall of text it says they start from 270k, you get there and it turns out that there are only 2 or 3 houses from 25 that are 270 because they are terraced or have a tiny plot and the rest is a good bit higher.

Only this time there literally none at the listed price! The prices listed were from when they first launched and it was from X euro as you said

Colonel Claptrap · 13-04-2018 11:03am

Just heard a statistic on the radio.

39% of people believe now is a good time to buy.

sunnyday1234 · 13-04-2018 11:03am

Its very likely that we will see some kind of a recession in the next 12 - 18 months IMHO. We havent had one in a long time and the tech cycle seems to be approaching its peak (again IMO)

I work in IT and see lots of consolidation happening and M+A .

I dont think house prices would collapse during a recession as it would most likely be just a standard 3 -6 month recession as opposed to the big collapse we saw the last time

LirW · 13-04-2018 11:06am

Colonel Claptrap wrote: »

Just heard a statistic on the radio.

39% of people believe now is a good time to buy.

It's a good time to buy when you get credit without overstretching yourself. That's what a lot of people seem to forget. Sure thing the bottom of the market is amazing to buy but it's a lot more difficult to secure credit then as average Joe.

I do see it as problematic when circumstances could change and lots of jobs would be wiped out and even secure areas are not secure anymore. Then sh1t is going to hit the fan.

13-04-2018 11:10am

LirW wrote: »

It's a good time to buy when you get credit without overstretching yourself. That's what a lot of people seem to forget. Sure thing the bottom of the market is amazing to buy but it's a lot more difficult to secure credit then as average Joe.

I do see it as problematic when circumstances could change and lots of jobs would be wiped out and even secure areas are not secure anymore. Then sh1t is going to hit the fan.

The bottom was 7/8 years ago surely?

If you can afford the repayments without stretching and you are buying a home with the intention of living there for decades it's not a bad time to buy. Accepting that 2 years ago was better :pac:

I bought in 2005, 2011 and 2014 ........... I'd class one of them as a bad time to buy in hindsight. I wouldn't be of the 39% thinking now is a good time to buy.

Boatswain · 13-04-2018 11:17am

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

Its very likely that we will see some kind of a recession in the next 12 - 18 months IMHO. We havent had one in a long time

2012 was a long time ago?

LirW · 13-04-2018 11:20am

I was more talking about the bright lights that go on about "I should have bought in the downturn when houses were feck all". Yes darling, I get you but as a first time buyer you'd have had a hard time securing a mortgage.

The one thing I see as a good thing is that now that people can buy and have money again, a lot of updating and renovating is happening and eventually that stock will come onto the market again. Not a bad thing when houses are better insulated, have updated layouts, better windows and doors.
Of course if the market goes downhill, some people might never recoup these costs.

Even here in St.Ballybacksticks everything that's cheap is bought straight away and either gutted and rebuilt or gets an extensive renovation to bring it into 2018. Not a bad thing at all me thinks.

sunnyday1234 · 13-04-2018 11:22am

Boatswain wrote: »

2012 was a long time ago?

Yes , in economic expansion terms. The longest period of expansion ever in the US was 10 years from 1991 to 2001. This current expansion in the US started in 2009 so its 9 years old now and already longer than most historical expansions. Our own expansion started in 2012 and was delayed because of how bad our crash was

Stock markets are very lofty, interest rates in US are heading upwards. These are usually what triggers a correction / recession

Samuel T. Cogley · 13-04-2018 3:07pm

mel123 wrote: »

Are we going to have a rental crisis for the foreseeable?
I see it as a bit of a catch 22. I do agree about lending criteria to an extent, but say for example a couple out renting now on average or even a bit above average salaries, how are they going to save to buy a house in the next few years? Are these people stuck in a renting bubble now rather than being able to buy?

Until renters start realising it's government policy to keep rents high and start putting real pressure on to intervene in a meaningful way (i.e. restore and increase tax relief for renters) the rental crisis will continue. It's far easier to buy into the narrative that LL's are bastards though.

Best smoke and mirrors job by a government in decades.

13-04-2018 3:20pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Until renters start realising it's government policy to keep rents high and start putting real pressure on to intervene in a meaningful way (i.e. restore and increase tax relief for renters) the rental crisis will continue. It's far easier to buy into the narrative that LL's are bastards though.

Best smoke and mirrors job by a government in decades.

When such things are suggested for mortages the response is that it will just put prices up. Why would it be different for rent?

Samuel T. Cogley · 13-04-2018 3:22pm

Deleted User wrote: »

When such things are suggested for mortages the response is that it will just put prices up. Why would it be different for rent?

True enough that rental caps would have to be properly enforced first, but we are creeping, ever so slowly, towards that.

Bob24 · 13-04-2018 3:32pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

When such things are suggested for mortages the response is that it will just put prices up. Why would it be different for rent?

True enough that rental caps would have to be properly enforced first, but we are creeping, ever so slowly, towards that.

I’d say the only potential effective way to implement tax breaks / caps would be to offer landlords an attractive tax incentive in exchange for a moderate rent (let them chose whether they want to take part of not, but make it such as both things go hand in hand).

A massive problem though would be how to decide what is a moderate rent. If you take two originaly identical houses next to each other for rent on the same street - if one landlord has kept in in so-so condition while the other one has just fully renovated it to very high standard, it is clear a moderate rent for the second one would be higher than a moderate rent for the first one. Correctly assessing that difference would be critical otherwise only properties in poor condition would be added to the scheme, but is it very hard to do in a systematic way.

The Student · 13-04-2018 3:58pm

Deleted User wrote: »

When such things are suggested for mortages the response is that it will just put prices up. Why would it be different for rent?

Why not extend the rent a room relief to landlords. Rents under €1k no tax anything above tax on all of it. The landlord is no worse off, the tenant pays less rent and therefore can save for a deposit.

Its a win win for both!

Bob24 · 13-04-2018 4:09pm

The Student wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

When such things are suggested for mortages the response is that it will just put prices up. Why would it be different for rent?

Why not extend the rent a room relief to landlords. Rents under €1k no tax anything above tax on all of it. The landlord is no worse off, the tenant pays less rent and therefore can save for a deposit.

Its a win win for both!

Firstly this would probably require significantl funding to compensate for lost tax revenue if many landlord were to join the scheme. Not necessarily a deal breaker but not a trivial question either.

Secondly and more importantly it could overtime create a two tiers rental market in high demand areas with only poor quality and small accommodation available under the scheme in those areas (as there would be no incentive for landlords to renovate there property if the resulting increased rental value is all eaten up by taxes).

Roberto_gas · 13-04-2018 8:15pm

Colonel Claptrap wrote:

But if we have to choose between loosening lending restrictions or keeping rents high, I choose the latter. It's far less risky for the individuals, banks and taxpayer. Not ideal but unfortunately it's the reality we face.

Income going into high rentals is not a good thing for economy...neither is high purchase prices and higher deposits....its a dangerous spiral in which ultimately savings are going into housing...never a good sign...

Bob24 · 14-04-2018 8:27am

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Income going into high rentals is not a good thing for economy...

I think most people will agree it’s not good (at least I do). But as Colonel Claptrap was saying and as we have seen in this country only 10 years ago, excessive lending is even worse.

The_Conductor · 14-04-2018 8:37am

Bob24 wrote: »

I think most people will agree it’s not good (at least I do). But as Colonel Claptrap was saying and as we have seen in this country only 10 years ago, excessive lending is even worse.

The level of private indebtedness in Ireland (to say nothing of our public sector debt)- is in absolute terms- the highest per head of population in Europe- and the third highest in the world.

The only thing keeping the show on the road- for the last decade- has been historically unprecedented interest rates.

If you want a real scare- read the minutes from the last ECB meeting- and the comments from both doves and hawks- regarding 'it is now time to implement normalization of interest rates'.

We already have a rapid unwinding of the ECB's QE programme- it is a simple question- when, not if, interest rates are going to start ratcheting upwards.

Irish lending institutions have, of late, been making a concerted effort to convince consumers to buy fixed rate products to try and insulate them from the vagaries of the market- when the day of reckoning does come. The government itself- is recognising this with its lifetime mortgage interest rate offer (at sovereign rates).

The Irish market is not the only market to have had bubble pricing as a result of the fiscally loose policies of the last decade- we are, however, unique in having such a large pool of both public and private sector debt at floating interest rates.

The NTMA has to refinance over 85 billion of public sector debt within the next 4 years- something that is not being spoken of- everyone seems to be drunk of the exuberance of an expansionary budget policy for the first time in years..........

We have a world of hurt on the horizon in both the public and private sectors- and anyone who tries to warn people is getting fun poked at them- the old chestnut about a broken clock being right twice a day is the euphemism that is most regularly being rolled out to greet these warnings.

We need to exercise severe caution and prudence in both the public and private sectors. Instead- we seem intent on throwing caution to the wind.

Bubbaclaus · 14-04-2018 8:59am

Do people think demand will fall in the near future due to people being unable to save a deposit in the first place due to high rents?

Once this current blockage is cleared we could go through a phase of low demand due to a large chunk of the age group expecting to buy not being able to save the required 10%.

Bob24 · 14-04-2018 9:08am

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Do people think demand will fall in the near future due to people being unable to save a deposit in the first place due to high rents?

Once this current blockage is cleared we could go through a phase of low demand due to a large chunk of the age group expecting to buy not being able to save the required 10%.

Bar an economic shock, I don’t think demand will fall as such. But the max budget of buyers will stop increasing at such a fast pace and hopefully prices will settle.

While rents are kind of spiralling out of control, there are still many people in a position to save money.

14-04-2018 9:54am

The Student wrote: »

Why not extend the rent a room relief to landlords. Rents under €1k no tax anything above tax on all of it. The landlord is no worse off, the tenant pays less rent and therefore can save for a deposit.

Its a win win for both!

Buy to lets would than be incredibly attractive for folks with cash as an investment.

When I was a landlord I paid little to no tax as the mortgage interest & other expenses were significant compared to the rent which was low at the time.

Your suggestion would benefit those with money who invest in by to let property more than renters imo

Samuel T. Cogley · 14-04-2018 9:59am

The additional problem of extending RAR to apartments is you'd curtail the number of rooms available for rent. People like me would stop renting a room and just focus on an apartment. You only need look at the threads here where people are thinking of doing RAR and want to put in separate kitchens and entrances.

14-04-2018 11:53am

Well if you rented out the whole thing and not just a room presumably there'd be at least an extra room out there

If it's your primary residence you'd hardly rent it all out anyway, if it isn't and your doing the rar thing then that's a different chat that's off topic and irrelevant.

Samuel T. Cogley · 14-04-2018 11:57am

Augeo wrote: »

Well if you rented out the whole thing and not just a room presumably there'd be at least an extra room out there

If it's your primary residence you'd hardly rent it all out anyway, if it isn't and your doing the rar thing then that's a different chat that's off topic and irrelevant.

I currently rent a room in my PPR and an apartment. If the allowance was moved to the apartment I'd use that allowance for the apartment. A room at €550 per month would be removed from the market and an apartment at €14K a year would replace it, doing the exact opposite of what needs to happen.

It's neither off topic nor irrelevant since RAR is a massive subset of people that would be forced into apartments.

RAR is it's own thing and should remain as such. That's not to say that there aren't tax based incentives that would work.

14-04-2018 12:00pm

I don't think many folk rent out an apartment & a room in the ppr.

The overall impact of what you are describing is close to SFA TBH, as you well know.

At 14k/year the mentioned tax relief wouldn't apply to your apartment BTW.

Also...no one is suggesting eliminating rar thing....just extending it to full lets that are under 1000/month.

Samuel T. Cogley · 14-04-2018 12:03pm

Augeo wrote: »

I don't think many folk rent out an apartment & a room in the ppr.

The overall impact of what you are describing is close to SFA TBH, as you well know.

At 14k/year the mentioned tax relief wouldn't apply to your apartment BTW.

14K is the current RAR relief. You're clearly not entirely sure what you're talking about and are missing the point. RAR's in PPR's are a lower cost along with a potential additional rental stream for certain Landlords.

14-04-2018 12:06pm

The Student wrote: »

Why not extend the rent a room relief to landlords. Rents under €1k no tax anything above tax on all of it. The landlord is no worse off, the tenant pays less rent and therefore can save for a deposit.

Its a win win for both!

I'm talking about what's up there ....

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

14K is the current RAR relief. You're clearly not entirely sure what you're talking about and are missing the point. RAR's in PPR's are a lower cost along with a potential additional rental stream for certain Landlords.

Samuel T. Cogley · 14-04-2018 12:07pm

Augeo wrote: »

I'm talking about what's up there ....

Certainly seems to be coming from up there.

keane2097 · 14-04-2018 12:07pm

Are ye talking about a landlord getting relief for RAR in their own house or just giving landlords 14k allowance for their lettings?

14-04-2018 12:11pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Certainly seems to be coming from up there.

Oh....I expected better from you.
Ah well.

The Student · 14-04-2018 12:42pm

keane2097 wrote: »

Are ye talking about a landlord getting relief for RAR in their own house or just giving landlords 14k allowance for their lettings?

On the whole property. The tenant then pays less rent then they are currently paying and can save a deposit for their own house while renting.

keane2097 · 14-04-2018 12:48pm

The Student wrote: »

On the whole property. The tenant then pays less rent then they are currently paying and can save a deposit for their own house while renting.

Sounds incredibly expensive!

14-04-2018 12:52pm

keane2097 wrote: »

Sounds incredibly expensive!

A pocket liner for the wealthy paid for by the taxpayer.
I suppose those potentially benefiting pay and have paid and would pay plenty tax though.

The Student · 14-04-2018 1:32pm

keane2097 wrote: »

Sounds incredibly expensive!

To who? Would you prefer people are forced to rent indefinitely as they can't afford to rent and save for a deposit

Bob24 · 14-04-2018 2:12pm

The Student wrote: »

To who? Would you prefer people are forced to rent indefinitely as they can't afford to rent and save for a deposit

Given the extremely tense rental market we have, most rents in a place like Dublin are set by high demand v.s. limited offer, not by running costs for landlords*.

So I doubt a massive tax cut for landlords would make it cheaper for tenants. It would in large part simply make it more profitable to be a landlord* (very few people on this thread if any could honestly say that if they were landlords and getting a tax cut, they would reduce rents accordingly even if the market allowed for higher rents). There is an argument that making it more profitable would bring more properties onto the market, but I personally doubt it would be a significant number compared to the cost of giving all landlords that tax break*.

As always, the issue simply is that in Dublin and some other places the stock of homes is simply not sufficient to cater for the population. Anything except building more homes is just talks and won't improve the situation.

* by saying these things I am not saying landlords have it easy or that taxation for individual landlords is not somewhat unfair, just stating the market situation and what I think the effect of the suggested measure would be given that situation.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 14-04-2018 4:30pm

Anyone else see the indos front page this morning. 18 months until celtic tiger peaks are reached. Levels of ****ty journalism reaching incredible new heights.

The_Conductor · 14-04-2018 6:18pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Anyone else see the indos front page this morning. 18 months until celtic tiger peaks are reached. Levels of ****ty journalism reaching incredible new heights.

If there was ever a clarion call to sell- that is it..........

Zenify · 14-04-2018 6:35pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

If there was ever a clarion call to sell- that is it..........

Seems to be a lot of articles going around at the moment. My mortgage broker rang me the other day encouraging me to buy too. I've had a rolling approval for over a year with him and never got a call before.

Property Market 2018

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