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01-12-2020, 20:33   #1
Gonzo
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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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The golden gates of winter have finally swung open with hopes and dreams of white gold. Last winter was truly abysmal with the Polar Vortex of Doom writing off winter 2019 before it even began. This winter can only be better than last winter.

The next 2 weeks looks mildly interesting for now. It looks fairly chilly over the next 10 to 14 days and after that we may see a return to milder conditions as we head into the second half of December.

The trend is for the NAO and AO to go negative over the next week which may allow northern blocking to be become more of an influence on our weather. This will turn the winds into the north or different variations of northerly winds from the north-west or possibly the north-east. An easterly could also develop in the next 2 weeks, something to watch out for.

The ECM looks fairly chilly over the next 10 days but nothing too cold.



The next 2 weeks also look dryer than much of November but some showers or bands of rain or sleet cannot be ruled out.

The GFS is fairly cool over the next 2 weeks and trends milder as we head towards the middle of the month.



Hopefully we will see a few flakes over the next 2 weeks but for now it appears very marginal with snow more likely over high ground. At least things currently are much more interesting than this time last year when we had a relentless raging Atlantic.
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04-12-2020, 00:22   #2
nacho libre
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According to the latest GFS the monster Russian high is not going anywhere by mid- month. The Atlantic is well and truly blocked. So no sign of a return to raging zonality, but no pronounced cold spell indicated as of yet. Still we could get something interesting further down the line. It's drastically different to last years setup.
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04-12-2020, 12:25   #3
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Well the ECM op is now showing the Atlantic returning to some extent. Usually it would be the GFS being more progressive in this scenario. It will be interesting to see if the ECM tonight sticks to it's guns, let's hope it move towards the UKMO -
as that looks like the best for extending the cold.
In the longer term, hopefully events in the troposphere have a significant effect on the strat. A nice Christmas present would be a SSW in late December, that way if the things fell in our favour we could get a decent cold spell by late January, perhaps a bit sooner. Although a SSW before January is not likely.
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04-12-2020, 12:32   #4
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10 days out but worth keeping an eye on... GFS is only dropping to 975.

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04-12-2020, 13:43   #5
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Under the influence of LP's out to +240 hrs, looks unsettled , in general not as cold as this current spell it would seem.




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04-12-2020, 15:56   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dacogawa View Post
10 days out but worth keeping an eye on... GFS is only dropping to 975.
Met Eireann 'Further outlook: while it looks to get milder, current indications are for more active period of wet and windy weather at times later in the week and over the weekend'.
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04-12-2020, 16:43   #7
Rebelbrowser
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I knows its the CFS but it now shows cold weather from 18 to 25 December, with steamers up to and including Christmas day, followed by a repeat of March 2018 from Stephen's day onwards! See for example:-



Just the usual boring -14 uppers down here.....
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04-12-2020, 18:05   #8
circadian
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I knows its the CFS but it now shows cold weather from 18 to 25 December, with steamers up to and including Christmas day, followed by a repeat of March 2018 from Stephen's day onwards! See for example:-



Just the usual boring -14 uppers down here.....
I know it's way too far out to be nailed on but It would be the 4th Centre Parcs trip we've missed this year if that's the case. However, missing it for an epic dumping of snow as opposed to the pandemic would keep the wee'uns happy.
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04-12-2020, 21:30   #9
Kermit.de.frog
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So long as the jet stream remains to our south we always have a chance of dragging in colder air from the east. The problem right now is that there is no real cold pool there to tap due to a persistent Russian high pressure which is driving milder air up through western Russia and eastern Europe from the eastern Med.





Temperatures well above average



We need to see an ejection of cold air out of the Arctic in to this region (or at least Scandinavia) before our prospects improve.

However there are plenty of indications in the models that low pressure from the Atlantic will struggle to break through and rather continue to slide southeast in keeping with the more southerly tracking jet.



So we end up with these synoptic situations.



Almost perfect. All we are missing is the cold air to tap. That can change super fast though. All it takes is low pressure going south through Scandinavia and maintaining high pressure to our north with that southerly tracking jet and we are in.

I'm quite optimistic meself.
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04-12-2020, 21:36   #10
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I, for one, am stocking up on bread and snow shovels.
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06-12-2020, 21:30   #11
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Cant see anything of note that stands out up to +240hrs from the last couple of runs, looks milder next Sun and Monday but probably wet also and a bit windy Sun or Mon and then back to cooler weather from the W, N/W for a couple of days anyway it would seem . Meridional jet so looks like a pattern of mild - cool - mild/avg for now.
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07-12-2020, 08:21   #12
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This would make for an interesting lead up to Christmas.

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07-12-2020, 08:28   #13
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Whoa!
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07-12-2020, 09:26   #14
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Whoa!
Surely we need a red warning out now!! Would that chart deliver large amounts of snow on the east coast?
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07-12-2020, 09:55   #15
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Surely we need a red warning out now!! Would that chart deliver large amounts of snow on the east coast?
In theory, yes. NE winds appear to be the best for snow on the east coast. Pity it’s so far out in FI.
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