November 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2020 12:59am

Anyway, on the bonus question, assuming no changes, the highest forecasts we had will score the most in that category, grouping equal numbers of forecasts in scoring intervals and keeping similar forecasts in equal scoring ranges (ties make this a bit irregular) the scoring groups were ...

5 pts __ 5.2 Appledrop, 5.0 Western Storm, dasa29, 4.8 DOCARCH and JPmarn and Kindred Spirit 4.5

4 pts __ 4.4 Pauldry, 4.2 Artane2002, bsal, 4.1 mickger844posts, john mac, 4.0 Eon1208.

3 pts __ 3.8 Sunflower3, dacogawa (also NormaL), 3.6 Tae laidir, MrStonewall, SleetAndSnow, (also consensus), 3.4 Gonzo, 200motels.

2 pts __ 3.1 Adam240610, JoePublic, sryanbruen, 3.0 Rikand, MrSkinner, 2.9 M.T. Cranium

1 pt ___ 2.0 waterways, 0.7 Danno, -2.8 BLIZZARD7

____________________________________________________

Then for location, the rules are fairly clear, correct location 3, location of 2nd coldest 2, location of 3rd coldest 1 pt:

3 pts __ Knock __ Pauldry, tae laidir, Artane2002, MrSkinner, SleetAndSnow (also NormaL, consensus)

2 pts __ Oak Park ___ Eon1208, Sunflower3, mickger844posts, John mac

1 pt ___ Claremorris _ Western Storm

0 pts __ any other location __ rest of field

______________________________________________________________

Date (27th) __

top third get 2 points __ 27th Joe Public, sryanbruen; 26th or 28th Eon1208 and John mac (26th) and JPmarn, M.T. Cranium, Danno (all 28th) ... also NormaL

middle third get one point (due to this first group all tying and overflowing the top third otherwise, this middle third is a larger group)
__ 25th tie with 29th, 25th include sunflower3, DOCARCH, Artane2002 and 29th include Rikand, 200motels, westernstorm, BLIZZARD7
__ 24th tie with 30th, 24th include Gonzo, Adam240610, dacogawa and MrStonewall and 30th include mickger844posts, Pauldry and Kindred spirit.
(also Con Sensus)

bottom third get no points here __ rest of field

____________________________________________

Total points

FORECASTER ______ Low max ___ Location __ Date ____ superbonus __ TOTAL

Eon1208 ____________ 4 __________ 2 ______ 2 ________ 1 __________ 9

John mac ____________4 __________ 2 ______ 2 ________ 1 __________ 9

____ NormaL ________ 3 __________ 3 ______ 2 ________ 1 __________ 9

Pauldry _____________ 4 __________ 3 ______ 1 ________ 1 __________ 9

Artane2002 __________4 __________ 3 ______ 1 ________ 1 __________ 9

WesternStorm ________5 __________ 1 ______ 1 ________ 1 __________ 8

JPmarn _____________ 5 __________ 0 ______ 2 ________ 1 __________ 8

mickger844posts ______4 __________ 2 ______ 1 ________ 1 __________ 8

WesternStorm ________5 __________ 1 ______ 1 ________ 1 __________ 8

____ Con Sensus ______ 3 __________ 3 ______ 1 ________ 1 __________ 8

tae laidir ____________ 3 __________ 3 ______ 0 ________ 0 __________ 6

SleetAndSnow ________3 __________ 3 ______ 0 ________ 0 __________ 6

DOCARCH ___________ 5 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 6

Kindred Spirit ________ 5 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 6

Appledrop ___________ 5 __________ 0 ______ 0 ________ 0 __________ 5

dasa29 ______________5 __________ 0 ______ 0 ________ 0 __________ 5

MrSkinner ___________ 2 __________ 3 ______ 0 ________ 0 __________ 5

M.T. Cranium _________2 __________ 0 ______ 2 ________ 0 __________ 4

Joe Public ____________2 __________ 0 ______ 2 ________ 0 __________ 4

Bsal ________________ 4 __________ 0 ______ 0 ________ 0 __________ 4

sryanbruen ___________2 __________ 0 ______ 2 ________ 0 __________ 4

MrStonewall __________ 3 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 4

Gonzo _______________3 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 4

200motels ___________ 3 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 4

dacogawa ____________3 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 4

rikand _______________2 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 3

Adam240610 _________ 2 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 3

Danno _______________1 __________ 0 ______ 2 ________ 0 __________ 3

BLIZZARD7 ___________1 __________ 0 ______ 1 ________ 0 __________ 2

waterways ___________ 1 __________ 0 ______ 0 ________ 0 __________ 1

___________________________________________

All of the above subject to review after 30th data and checking that Claremorris (6.6 27th) was actually 3rd coldest location.

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2020 7:32pm

In the above scoring table, Western Storm appears twice but sunflower's total was inadvertently left out, it should have read

sunflower3 _________ 3 ______ 2 ______ 1 _______ 1 ______________ 7

(can't edit in at this point)

If you happen to look at "yesterday's weather" on the met.ie site, you may freak out, but it's actually the weather for the 5th of October. When I first went for a look to check on a few things, my first thought was, OMG this is totally different from what was forecast for yesterday, how did this happen? Then I checked the time stamp at the bottom. Anyway, let's hope there's some actual weather soon. Snowing hard where I live. (had to say it)

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2020 1:12pm

The IMT finished on 8.1 (8.08^) and the PRC was 111%. Estimate SUN will be 95%.

Scoring will be interesting (tomorrow afternoon I hope), I did a quick check and didn't see anyone likely to break 80 but there's a few in the 70s.

Could be quite a finish to this year's contest. This coming month has attracted some variable forecasts.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2020 8:15am

Confirmed Scores for November 2020

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Bonus __ Total

adjusted final values used_ 8.1 _16.3_-2.8_112_100 _ see above

Dasa29 _______________ 19 _ 17 _ 19 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 5 ______ 84

Artane2002 ____________20 _ 19 _ 13 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 9 ______ 84

Eon1208 ___ (-5) _______22 _ 13 _ 20 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 9 _81-5 = 76

Kindred Spirit __________ 18 _ 15 _ 14 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 6 ______ 74

M.T. Cranium ___________24 _ 19 _ 11 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 4 ______ 73

____ NormaL __________ 16 _ 18 _ 09 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 9 ______ 73

Appledrop _____________ 18 _ 14 _ 11 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 5 ______ 70

Bsal __________________13 _ 19 _ 14 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 4 ______ 70

Jpmarn _______________ 24 _ 15 _ 09 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 8 ______ 70

DOCARCH _____________ 20 _ 07 _ 18 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 6 ______ 70

Sunflower3 ____________ 23 _ 15 _ 01 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 7 ______ 66

Tae laidir ______________21 _ 17 _ 06 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 6 ______ 66

Pauldry________________22 _ 18 _ 01 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 9 ______ 66

WesternStorm __________04 _ 12 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 8 ______ 65

____ Con Sensus _______ 15 _ 19 _ 07 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 8 ______ 65

mickger844posts ________13 _ 17 _ 08 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 8 ______ 62

MrSkinner _____ (-2) ____14 _ 18 _ 01 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 5 _ 61-2= 59

Adam240610 ___________17 _ 12 _ 09 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 3 ______ 57

Gonzo __ (-2) __________18 _ 13 _ 07 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 4_55-2 = 53

waterways ____________ 15 _ 17 _ 01 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 1 ______ 53

200motels _____________13 _ 12 _ 08 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 4 ______ 52

Rikand ________________19 _ 13 _ 01 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 3 ______ 50

john mac _ (-2) ________ 13 _ 06 _ 03 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 9 _ 52-2= 50

sryanbruen ____________ 12 _ 16 _ 01 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 4 ______ 46

Joe Public _____________ 14 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 4 ______ 46

Dacogawa _____________13 _ 17 _ 00 _ 06 _ 03 ___ 4 ______ 43

SleetAndSnow __________08 _ 13 _ 00 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 6 ______ 43

Mrstonewall ____________09 _ 20 _ 00 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 4 ______ 40

Danno ___ (-4) _________07 _ 19 _ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 3 _29-4 = 25

BLIZZARD7 ____________02 _ 09 _ 00 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 2 ______ 21

__________________________________________

note: MIN scoring all boosted by 1 in scoring range then top half of non-scoring forecasts boosted from 0 to 1.

borderline minimum progression situation, scoring a bit low for this element but qualifying "reduced boost" scores.
Have adjusted PRC and SUN scores, both estimates just off slightly, no big changes and most up 1 point, so congrats to dasa29 and Artane2002, and good scoring also from Eon1208 before late penalty reduced it but still a solid third place.

Working on annual scoring now. (1 p.m. IST)

======================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ low max

Eon1208 ___ (-5) _______ 8.4 _ 15.6 _ -2.7 _ 091 _ 103 __ 4.0 26th Oak Park

Jpmarn _______________ 8.2 _ 16.8 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 4.5 28th Mt.Dillon

M.T. Cranium ___________8.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 115 __ 2.9 28th Ballyhaise

Sunflower3 ____________ 7.9 _ 15.8 _ -5.1 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.8 25th Oak Park

Pauldry________________7.8 _ 16.5 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 4.4 30th Knock

Tae laidir ______________7.7 _ 16.6 _ -4.3 _ 084 _ 098 __ 3.6 20th Knock

DOCARCH _____________7.6 _ 17.6 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 118 __ 4.8 25th Ballyhaise

Artane2002 ____________7.6 _ 16.2 _ -3.6 _ 115 _ 105 __ 4.2 25th Knock

Rikand ________________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 3.0 xx Mount Dillon

Dasa29 _______________ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 5.0 19th Mullingar

Appledrop _____________ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 095 __ 5.2 21st Mullingar

Kindred Spirit __________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 090 __ 4.5 30th Mullingar

Gonzo __ (-2) __________7.4 _ 15.6 _ -4.2 _ 084 _ 115 __ 3.4 24th Dunsany

Adam240610 __________ 7.3 _ 17.1 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.1 24th Mt Dillon

____ NormaL __________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 late (climatology)

____ Con Sensus _______ 7.1 _ 16.2 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.6 25th Mt Dillon, Mullingar, Knock, B'haise

waterways ____________ 7.1 _ 15.9 _ -4.9 _ 097 _ 107 __ 2.0 15th Mount Dillon

Joe Public _____________ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -5.8 _ 091 _ 131 __ 3.1 27th Mt Dillon

MrSkinner _____ (-2) ____7.0 _ 16.5 _ -4.8 _ 119 _ 100 __ 3.0 20th Knock

Dacogawa _____________ 6.9 _ 16.6 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 135__ 3.8 24th Mount Dillon

Bsal __________________ 6.9 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 122 _ 088 __ 4.2 21st Mullingar

mickger844posts ________6.9 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 087 _ 106 __ 4.1 30th Oak Park

200motels _____________6.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.1 _ 085 _ 103 __ 3.4 29th Ballyhaise

john mac _ (-2) ________ 6.9 _ 14.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 098 __ 4.1 26th Oak Park

sryanbruen ____________ 6.8 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 080 _ 105 __ 3.1 27th Ballyhaise

Mrstonewall ____________6.5 _ 16.3 _ -6.8 _ 072 _ 123 __ 3.6 24th Mullingar

SleetAndSnow __________6.4 _ 15.6 _ -6.3 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.6 20th Knock

Danno ___ (-4) _________6.3 _ 16.4 _ -7.2 _ 065 _ 170 __ 0.7 28th Gurteen

WesternStorm __________6.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 115 _ 090 __ 5.0 25th Claremorris

BLIZZARD7 ____________5.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.3 _ 075 _ 125 __ -2.8c 29th Ballyhaise

__________________________________________

(posted this ahead of MS check but will have option to edit if necessary.)

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2020 3:17pm

Annual scoring update January to November 2020
__________________________________________________________

The total scores are still tracked in the left column but the table is now in the order of the final rank value for best 9 of 11 currently trending towards eventual best 10/12.

rank (prev)_FORECASTER___Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov _TOTAL___Best 9/11 (rank, prev)

(01)_(01) __ NormaL ______70 _50 _73 _55 _52 _78 _59 _70 _71 _60 _73 __ 711 ____ 609 (01) (01)

01_(01)_Jpmarn __________86 _51 _50 _61 _39 _62 _73 _71 _61 _64 _70 __ 688 ____ 599 (01) (01)

02_(03)_ Dasa29 _________ 48 _70 _55 _38 _53 _63 _66 _70 _76 _61 _84 __ 684 ____ 598 (02) (03t)

05_(04) _Pauldry _________ 63 _36 _58 _69 _46 _79 _77 _76 _38 _51 _66 __ 659 ____ 585 (03) (02)

03_(02)_ Mrskinner _______ 86 _54 _72 _61 _60 _49 _49 _62 _49 _70 _59 __ 671 ____ 573 (04t) (03t)

04_(09) _Artane2002 ______56 _63 _65 _69 _52 _50 _61 _42 _59 _64 _84 __ 665 ____ 573 (04t) (10)

(03)_(t02)__ Con Sensus ___70 _62 _59 _69 _57 _64 _58 _49 _60 _64 _65 __ 677 ____ 571 (06) (07)

15_(14)_Rikand __________ 68 _38 _64 _73 _66 _41 _--- _71 _68 _61 _50 __ 600 ____ 562 (06) (05)

06_(06)_DOCARCH ________58 _61 _62 _50 _54 _69 _62 _68 _47 _57 _70 __ 658 ____ 561 (07t) (09)

08_(11)_ Kindred Spirit_____ 61 _63 _71 _71 _60 _53 _37 _53 _48 _55 _74 __ 646 ____ 561 (07t) (12t)

10 _(05) _sryanbruen ______ 47 _58 _88 _71 _43 _54 _70 _35 _58 _65 _46 __ 635 ____ 557 (09) (06)

07_(08)_ mickger844posts __ 55 _63 _60 _48 _74 _59 _54 _53 _50 _70 _62 __ 648 ____ 550 (10) (11)

17_(15)_200motels ________47 _--- _75 _61 _60 _65 _60 _43 _64 _65 _52 __ 592 ____ 549 (11t) (07)

13_(12) _ Adam240610 ____ 62 _38 _58 _69 _47 _80 _64 _37 _58 _54 _57 __ 624 ____ 549 (11t) (08)

09_(10)_Bsal _____________62 _54 _57 _52 _48 _49 _67 _65 _56 _64 _70 __ 644 ____ 547 (13) (16)

12_(13)_ Sunflower3 _______68 _60 _50 _57 _51 _71 _32 _68 _51 _53 _66 __ 627 ____ 545 (14) (15)

14_(17)_M.T. Cranium ______69 _59 _60 _51 _35 _75 _46 _44 _64 _42 _73 __ 618 ____ 541 (15) (18)

11_(07)_ Dacogawa ________73 _64 _53 _51 _62 _59 _63 _62 _50 _50 _43 __ 630 ____ 537 (16) (12t)

18_(18)_Joe Public ________ 70 _65 _42 _39 _78 _59 _--- _47 _69 _56 _46 __ 571 ____ 532 (17) (14)

19_(19) _waterways _______--- _54 _42 _44 _67 _42 _63 _57 _86 _58 _53 __ 566 ____ 524 (18) (17)

16_(16) _john mac ________ 64 _46 _52 _61 _59 _57 _41 _51 _55 _60 _50 __ 596 ____ 509 (19) (19)

20_(20) _Tae laidir ________ 67 _49 _48 _49 _53 _45 _37 _35 _60 _54 _66 __ 563 ____ 491 (20) (20)

21_(21) _BLIZZARD7 ______ 66 _36 _47 _44 _53 _15 _--- _29 _46 _42 _21 __ 399 ____ 384 (21) (21)

22_(22)_Appledrop ________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _47 _80 _71 _48 _66 _70 __ 312

23 _(23)_Mr Stonewall _____ --- _--- _--- _--- _34 _50 _--- _43 _69 _74 _40 __ 310

24 _(25)_WesternStorm _____54 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _20 _48 _56 _49 _65 __ 292

25 _(24) _Gonzo __________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 84 _25 _68 _61 _53 __ 291

26 _(26) _Eon1208 ________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 50 _57 _32 _68 _76 __ 273

27_ (27)_Tazio ____________--- _--- _--- _68 _--- _35 _--- _--- _47 _--- _--- __ 150

28 _(28) _Danno __________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _71 _25 ___ 96

29 _(29)_JCXBXC __________58 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- ___ 58

30 _(30)_esposito _________ 49 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- ___ 49

31 _(31) _sdanseo _________--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _47 _--- ___ 47

32 _ (---) _SleetAndSnow ___ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _43 ___ 43

=================================================

So it's now quite close at the top, the two leaders of the November scoring have moved into the
top five and past Con Sensus (in the best 9/11) and I'll have to look at all their December forecasts
to see how much potential change there might be in various outcomes.

Congrats to JPmarn for holding down top spots in both forms of the contest. Dasa29 is riding the draft
in bicycle racing terms (I don't do that so just speculating). I am feeling it a bit down there in the second
or maybe third peloton. Could go either way, further ahead or off the road entirely.

Good luck to all, four seasons final report is next on my "to do" list here. Could be a while until I can do.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2020 4:26pm

Four Seasons contest _ Final Report

The autumn portion of the contest is shown with total scores and points following the points from the three earlier seasons, the order is determined by annual points totals rather than this past season itself. Scores in brackets for autumn were lower than 10th place and received no contest points.

Points for this contest are 10 for top seasonal score, then 7, 6, 5 etc down to 1 for 8th, 9th and 10th places. Then Con Sensus and NormaL are awarded the points they would have if playing the contest but no scores lower than theirs are affected.

FORECASTER __ winter_spring_summer __ score (autumn), pts ___ TOTAL

JPmarn _________7 _____ -- _____ 7 _____ 195 ________ 5 ______ 19

dasa29 ________ -- _____ -- _____ 6 _____ 221 ________10 ______16

Artane2002 _____ 5 _____ 3 _____ -- _____ 207 ________ 7 ______ 15

MrSkinner ______10 _____ 5 _____ -- ____ (178) _______ -- ______ 15

___ NormaL ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 7 _____204 ________ 6 _______15

_ Con Sensus ___ 6 _____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 189 ________ 3 _______ 12

Pauldry ________ -- _____ 1 _____10 ___ (155) ________ -- ______ 11

Rikand ________ -- _____ 10 ____ -- ____ (179) ________-- ______ 10

mickger844posts _ 6_____ 2 _____ -- ____ 182 _________ 1 _______ 9

200motels ______-- _____ 6 _____ 1 _____ 181 _________ 1 ______ 8

sryanbruen _____ -- _____ 7 _____ -- ____ (169) ________ -- ______ 7

Bsal ___________1 _____ -- _____ 2 _____ 190 _________ 4 _______7

Appledrop ______-- _____ -- _____ 4 _____ 184 _________ 3 _______7

DOCARCH______ -- _____ -- _____ 6 _____(174) ________ -- ______ 6

waterways _____ -- _____ -- _____ -- _____ 197 ________ 6 _______ 6

dacogawa _______2 _____ -- _____ 3 ____ (143) ________ -- ______ 5

sunflower3 ______4 _____ -- _____ 1 ____ (170) ________ -- ______ 5

Kindred Spirit ___ -- _____ 4 _____ -- _____(177) ________-- ______ 4

Adam240610 ___ -- _____1 _____ 2 ______(169) ________ -- ______ 3

Joe Public ______ 3 _____ -- ____ -- _____(171) _________-- ______ 3

John mac ______ 1 _____ 1 _____-- _____ (165) ________ -- ______ 2

MrStonewall ____ -- _____ -- ____ -- _____ 183 _________ 2 _______2

Tae laidir _______1 _____ -- ____ -- _____ (180) ________ -- ______ 1

Gonzo _________-- _____ -- ____ -- _____ 182 _________ 1 _______ 1

_____________________________________________________________

No four seasons points, totals for autumn:

MTC 179, Eon1208 176, Western Storm 170, BLIZZARD7 109.

===============================================

It was a close contest, JPmarn takes the Four Seasons award with dasa29 into second place after winning the autumn segment, and a tie for third, Artane2002, MrSkinner and NormaL.

November 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

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