November 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS -- Predict the coldest daily maximum at any of the regularly reporting locations (in "yesterday's weather" section of met.ie website), date and location.

(contest deadline 0300h Sunday 1st, usual late penalties apply).

Normal ___ 7.2 _ 16.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 3.8 last third Knock (climatology)

MTC _____ 8.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 115 _ 2.9 28th Ballyhaise

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____ 6.8 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 080 _ 105 _ 3.1 27th Ballyhaise

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___ 7.6 _ 16.2 _ -3.6 _ 115 _ 105 _ 4.2 25th Knock

sunflower3

Sunflower3_____ 7.9 _ 15.8 _ -5.1 _ 120 _ 90 _ 3.8 25th Oak Park

200motels

200motels_________ 6.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.1 _ 085 _ 103_ 3.4 29th Ballyhaise

pauldry

Pauldry________ 7.8_ 16.5 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110_ 4.4 30th Knock

Rikand

Rikand ____ 7.5 ____ 17.0 ____ -5.0 _____ 90 ____ 120 _____ 3.0 Mount Dillon

Bsal

Bsal___ 6.9 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 122 _ 88 _ 4.2 21st Mullingar

dasa29

Dasa29___ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 _ 5.0 19th Mullingar

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _____ 6.9 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 087 _ 106 _ 4.1 30th Oak Park

appledrop

Appledrop 7.4_ 16.9_ -3.8_ 120%_95% _5.2_ 21st Mullingar

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____ 7.6 _ 17.6 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 118 _ 4.8 25th Ballyhaise

WesternStorm

WesternStorm___ 6.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 115 _ 90 _ 5.0 25th Claremorris

adam240610

Adam240610 7.3 __ 17.1 __ -4.0 __ 90 __ 110 __ 3.1 24th Mt Dillon

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.4 ___ 15.8 ___ -3.5 ___ 105 ___ 90 ___ 4.5° 30th Mullingar.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___ 7.7 _ 16.6 _ -4.3 _ 84 _ 98 _ 3.6 _20th _ Knock

mr.stonewall

Mrstonewall ___6.5___16.3___-6.8___72___123__3.6 24th mullingar

SleetAndSnow

SleetAndSnow ___6.4___15.6___-6.3___90___110__3.6 20th Knock

dacogawa

Dacogawa____ 6.9_ 16.6 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 135_ 3.8 24th Mount Dillon

Joe Public

Joe Public _____ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -5.8 _ 91 _ 131 _ 3.1 27th Mt Dillon

waterways

waterways ___ 7.1_ 15.9 _ -4.9 _ 97 _ 107 _ 2.0 15th Mount Dillon

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ___ 8.2 _ 16.8 _ -4.0_ 90 _ 120_ 4.5 Mt.Dillon

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 _____ 5.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.3 _ 075 _ 125 _ -2.8c 29th Ballyhaise

John mac

john mac _____ 6.9 _ 14.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 98 _ 4.1 26 oak park

mrskinner

Skinner_____7______16.5_____-4.8_____119_____100_____3 20th Knock

Gonzo

Gonzo _____ 7.4 _ 15.6 _ -4.2 _ 084 _ 115 _ 3.4 24th Dunsany

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for November 2020


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ low max

Eon1208 ___ (-5) _______ 8.4 _ 15.6 _ -2.7 _ 091 _ 103 __ 4.0 26th Oak Park

Jpmarn _______________ 8.2 _ 16.8 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 4.5 28th Mt.Dillon

M.T. Cranium ___________8.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 115 __ 2.9 28th Ballyhaise

Sunflower3 ____________ 7.9 _ 15.8 _ -5.1 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.8 25th Oak Park

Pauldry________________7.8 _ 16.5 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 4.4 30th Knock

Tae laidir ______________7.7 _ 16.6 _ -4.3 _ 084 _ 098 __ 3.6 20th Knock

DOCARCH _____________7.6 _ 17.6 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 118 __ 4.8 25th Ballyhaise

Artane2002 ____________7.6 _ 16.2 _ -3.6 _ 115 _ 105 __ 4.2 25th Knock

Rikand ________________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 3.0 xx Mount Dillon

Dasa29 _______________ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 5.0 19th Mullingar

Appledrop _____________ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 095 __ 5.2 21st Mullingar

Kindred Spirit __________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 090 __ 4.5 30th Mullingar

Gonzo __ (-2) __________7.4 _ 15.6 _ -4.2 _ 084 _ 115 __ 3.4 24th Dunsany

Adam240610 __________ 7.3 _ 17.1 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.1 24th Mt Dillon


____ NormaL __________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 late (climatology)

____ Con Sensus _______ 7.1 _ 16.2 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.6 25th Mt Dillon, Mullingar, Knock, B'haise


waterways ____________ 7.1 _ 15.9 _ -4.9 _ 097 _ 107 __ 2.0 15th Mount Dillon

Joe Public _____________ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -5.8 _ 091 _ 131 __ 3.1 27th Mt Dillon

MrSkinner _____ (-2) ____7.0 _ 16.5 _ -4.8 _ 119 _ 100 __ 3.0 20th Knock

Dacogawa _____________ 6.9 _ 16.6 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 135__ 3.8 24th Mount Dillon

Bsal __________________ 6.9 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 122 _ 088 __ 4.2 21st Mullingar

mickger844posts ________6.9 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 087 _ 106 __ 4.1 30th Oak Park

200motels _____________6.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.1 _ 085 _ 103 __ 3.4 29th Ballyhaise

john mac _ (-2) ________ 6.9 _ 14.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 098 __ 4.1 26th Oak Park

sryanbruen ____________ 6.8 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 080 _ 105 __ 3.1 27th Ballyhaise

Mrstonewall ____________6.5 _ 16.3 _ -6.8 _ 072 _ 123 __ 3.6 24th Mullingar

SleetAndSnow __________6.4 _ 15.6 _ -6.3 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.6 20th Knock

Danno ___ (-4) _________6.3 _ 16.4 _ -7.2 _ 065 _ 170 __ 0.7 28th Gurteen

WesternStorm __________6.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 115 _ 090 __ 5.0 25th Claremorris

BLIZZARD7 ____________5.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.3 _ 075 _ 125 __ -2.8c 29th Ballyhaise

__________________________________________

Requests sent out for the bonus question dates (two missing that) ... Con Sensus subject to adjustment for any later entries ... for the location of the coldest max, the choices were

Mullingar 5, Knock 5, Ballyhaise 5, Mountdillon 6 (Con scores 3 if any verify)

Oak Park 4 (Con scores 2 if OP verifies)

Dunsany, Claremorris, Gurteen (Con scores 1 if any of these verifies)

any other location (Con scores zero, forecasters score from performance of their location relative to actual coldest, i.e., location is second coldest, 2 points, third coldest 1 point).

Overall scoring for bonus, 5 for value, 2 for date, 3 for location, 1 and 2 superbonus points available. ... for date, top third of field gets 2 pts, middle third 1 point, lower third zero.


Normal scores the same way as Con for location but can get 2 for Markree and 1 for any other location inland not selected or Dublin A, zero for coastal locations and Moorepark.

Normal scores 2 for date if 25-30, 1 if 18-24, zero if 1-17.

================ - ===================

Slight changes to Con Sensus as a result of later entry ... see my post below for further info about late entry validated MAX or MIN data ... this has been required in a few situations way back when, not very often recently as far as I can recall. Late penalties are not that big a bite nowadays after I reduced them earlier (in 2019 I think it was). Added later ... actual max on 1st was apparently 16.2, so I have removed the "max 15" sticker from Danno's forecast and edited my post about it, also Eon1208 entered later but has a value that is not advantageous from knowing the result on 1st, so just the regular late penalty applies there. Anyone who shows up even later and enters 16.2 or close values will be capped at 15 for that portion.

Also by the way, welcome to SleetAndSnow who is a regular participant in storm threads but as far as I can recall hasn't entered this contest before this month. Danno of course was quite a regular (and successful) participant many years ago (like when there was winter).

Danno

Danno _______________ 6.3 _ 16.4 _ -7.2 _ 065 _ 170 __ 0.7 28th Gurteen

M.T. Cranium

Okay, will have to mention that when people enter after a likely monthly extreme is set and they quote that value in their forecast, the usual late penalty isn't really large enough to deflate that advantage, so what we have done in past situations like this (can't remember one recently, but obviously it could apply to the forecast just entered), is to cap the MAX score at 15 for that entrant as well as the late penalty. So I trust this will be seen as a fair decision here (and it would apply to anyone else who either entered later than this or a regular asking for a late penalty on revision).

This will of course not be an issue if the max on 1st is superseded by an even higher value. Will place the forecast in the table with those provisions.

(later edit) _ Apparently the max on 1st was 16.2, so I have removed that cap of 15 points on a forecast that is not conclusively based on a known result, poster could be thinking 16.4 will verify later in month. And since it's not a regular entrant in the late stages of the annual contest, it doesn't make much practical difference anyway. This is a rule to be applied in relevant situations later though, in case we get another situation similar to this.

eon1208

8.4, 15.6, -2.7, 91%, 103%, 4 degrees - Oak Park -26th Nov..

Jpmarn

Max 16.2 on the 1st at Phoenix Park. Does that beat the Max for October 20.

Bonus Question I didn’t see that I had to put in a date for a low max temperature as well as location. So my guess is 28th at Mt Dillon.

Tae laidir

Jpmarn wrote: »

Max 16.2 on the 1st at Phoenix Park. Does that beat the Max for October 20.

Hasn't been as warm since September!

M.T. Cranium

Jpmarn wrote: »

Max 16.2 on the 1st at Phoenix Park. Does that beat the Max for October 20.

Bonus Question I didn’t see that I had to put in a date for a low max temperature as well as location. So my guess is 28th at Mt Dillon.

Thanks, that leaves rikand to go with these missing dates. Sent him and yourself pm's about this but sometimes people have full inboxes. Only two points on the table for this anyway.

M.T. Cranium

It turns out that the 16.2 on 1st Nov was warmest since 16.8 at Newport on 3rd October, we had missed that early reading in our tracking in October -- it did not affect the scoring, minimum progression was still required. The October scoring already posted has been confirmed.

Rikand

My inbox was probably full.

Stick me down for the 29th. Sorry about that

Jpmarn

MIN-1.6°C recorded at Athenry on the 4th.

appledrop

Min -6.5 Johnstown Castle reported on Met Eireann website for yesterday but I think its an error.

Nowhere else even got below 0 so that can't be right can it?

M.T. Cranium

That does look erroneous, if you click on the location, two missing hours in afternoon otherwise minimum all day was around 5 C there. Will likely be corrected at some point.

Meanwhile, tracking the low max, yesterday's low max was 8.7 at Oak Park. Not likely to hold up all month but with milder weather coming, who knows? Not 100% sure that is lower than 1st to 4th reached anywhere. Can check that out later if we start to run into a long mild spell.

Tae laidir

I think Knock maxed at 8.1 on the 4th.
Johnstown corrected to 3.3.

appledrop

Tae laidir wrote: »

I think Knock maxed at 8.1 on the 4th.
Johnstown corrected to 3.3.

Thanks I knew it had to be an error!

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 7.0, which was 1.4 below normal for the period.

MAX 16.2

MIN --1.6

PRC 97% of normal

SUN 126% of normal (756/600).

Low max so far _ 8.1 Knock 4th

Tae laidir

Casement reported 16.3 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 8.7(4), the second week average was 10.4, 2.7 above normal for the period.

MAX 16.3, MIN --1.6

PRC up to 132% of normal, after a rather wet week at 166% of normal.

SUN has slipped to 91% with the week only 65% (388/600) -- the southwest was cloudier than other regions with only a quarter of their average.

Low max continues to be 8.1 at Knock.

Tae laidir

Yesterday's low max was 12.5 and low min was 11.2 at Knock.
Finner or Phoenix Park didn't drop below 12.9.
Thankfully, they don't form the basis of this month's bonus question.

appledrop

It will be interesting to see of tomorrow gives us a new colder max value.

M.T. Cranium

Some days next week are looking a bit colder, if I had a reset I would be saying 5.5 looking at the available guidance.

appledrop

New min max Knock Airport 6.9 19th Nov.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 9.0 after a very mild third week which averaged 9.5, 2.4 above normal.

PRC at 129% with the third week similar to the average, 124%.

SUN has slipped a bit further, now at 88% with the third week at 83% (499/600).

Low max 6.9 at Knock.

appledrop

This Friday is looking like the coldest day of Nov with forecast max temperatures of only 4 or 5 so that should give us our coldest daily max I would guess.

pauldry

New min this week too -3 or 4 possible.

M.T. Cranium

Assuming the last seven days average 4 C, run largely dry after today, and provide a bit more sunshine than average, the end of month values (beside those suggested above, which I feel are likely correct too), would be something like

IMT 7.8-8.0, MAX 16.3, MIN ?? (-3 to -5), PRC 105, SUN 95-100 and low max ?? (2 to 4).

This will help most scores I think. Could be seeing a few really high ones if people get lucky on their bonus and MIN guesses (the other estimates are probably less subject to variation).