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November 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-10-2020 8:41am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,214 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

    3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

    4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

    5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS -- Predict the coldest daily maximum at any of the regularly reporting locations (in "yesterday's weather" section of met.ie website), date and location.

    (contest deadline 0300h Sunday 1st, usual late penalties apply).

    Normal ___ 7.2 _ 16.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 3.8 last third Knock (climatology)

    MTC _____ 8.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 115 _ 2.9 28th Ballyhaise


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _____ 6.8 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 080 _ 105 _ 3.1 27th Ballyhaise

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ___ 7.6 _ 16.2 _ -3.6 _ 115 _ 105 _ 4.2 25th Knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3_____ 7.9 _ 15.8 _ -5.1 _ 120 _ 90 _ 3.8 25th Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_________ 6.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.1 _ 085 _ 103_ 3.4 29th Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry________ 7.8_ 16.5 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110_ 4.4 30th Knock


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,570 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 7.5 ____ 17.0 ____ -5.0 _____ 90 ____ 120 _____ 3.0 Mount Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal___ 6.9 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 122 _ 88 _ 4.2 21st Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29___ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 _ 5.0 19th Mullingar


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _____ 6.9 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 087 _ 106 _ 4.1 30th Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,626 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop 7.4_ 16.9_ -3.8_ 120%_95% _5.2_ 21st Mullingar


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,118 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 7.6 _ 17.6 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 118 _ 4.8 25th Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm___ 6.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 115 _ 90 _ 5.0 25th Claremorris


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 7.3 __ 17.1 __ -4.0 __ 90 __ 110 __ 3.1 24th Mt Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 7.4 ___ 15.8 ___ -3.5 ___ 105 ___ 90 ___ 4.5° 30th Mullingar.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 7.7 _ 16.6 _ -4.3 _ 84 _ 98 _ 3.6 _20th _ Knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 755 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mrstonewall ___6.5___16.3___-6.8___72___123__3.6 24th mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    SleetAndSnow ___6.4___15.6___-6.3___90___110__3.6 20th Knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa____ 6.9_ 16.6 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 135_ 3.8 24th Mount Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -5.8 _ 91 _ 131 _ 3.1 27th Mt Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___ 7.1_ 15.9 _ -4.9 _ 97 _ 107 _ 2.0 15th Mount Dillon


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ___ 8.2 _ 16.8 _ -4.0_ 90 _ 120_ 4.5 Mt.Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _____ 5.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.3 _ 075 _ 125 _ -2.8c 29th Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac _____ 6.9 _ 14.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 98 _ 4.1 26 oak park


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____7______16.5_____-4.8_____119_____100_____3 20th Knock


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,181 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo _____ 7.4 _ 15.6 _ -4.2 _ 084 _ 115 _ 3.4 24th Dunsany


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,214 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for November 2020


    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ low max

    Eon1208 ___ (-5) _______ 8.4 _ 15.6 _ -2.7 _ 091 _ 103 __ 4.0 26th Oak Park

    Jpmarn _______________ 8.2 _ 16.8 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 4.5 28th Mt.Dillon

    M.T. Cranium ___________8.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 115 __ 2.9 28th Ballyhaise

    Sunflower3 ____________ 7.9 _ 15.8 _ -5.1 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.8 25th Oak Park

    Pauldry________________7.8 _ 16.5 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 4.4 30th Knock

    Tae laidir ______________7.7 _ 16.6 _ -4.3 _ 084 _ 098 __ 3.6 20th Knock

    DOCARCH _____________7.6 _ 17.6 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 118 __ 4.8 25th Ballyhaise

    Artane2002 ____________7.6 _ 16.2 _ -3.6 _ 115 _ 105 __ 4.2 25th Knock

    Rikand ________________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 3.0 xx Mount Dillon

    Dasa29 _______________ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 5.0 19th Mullingar

    Appledrop _____________ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 095 __ 5.2 21st Mullingar

    Kindred Spirit __________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 090 __ 4.5 30th Mullingar

    Gonzo __ (-2) __________7.4 _ 15.6 _ -4.2 _ 084 _ 115 __ 3.4 24th Dunsany

    Adam240610 __________ 7.3 _ 17.1 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.1 24th Mt Dillon


    ____ NormaL __________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 late (climatology)

    ____ Con Sensus _______ 7.1 _ 16.2 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.6 25th Mt Dillon, Mullingar, Knock, B'haise


    waterways ____________ 7.1 _ 15.9 _ -4.9 _ 097 _ 107 __ 2.0 15th Mount Dillon

    Joe Public _____________ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -5.8 _ 091 _ 131 __ 3.1 27th Mt Dillon

    MrSkinner _____ (-2) ____7.0 _ 16.5 _ -4.8 _ 119 _ 100 __ 3.0 20th Knock

    Dacogawa _____________ 6.9 _ 16.6 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 135__ 3.8 24th Mount Dillon

    Bsal __________________ 6.9 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 122 _ 088 __ 4.2 21st Mullingar

    mickger844posts ________6.9 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 087 _ 106 __ 4.1 30th Oak Park

    200motels _____________6.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.1 _ 085 _ 103 __ 3.4 29th Ballyhaise

    john mac _ (-2) ________ 6.9 _ 14.9 _ -4.6 _ 100 _ 098 __ 4.1 26th Oak Park

    sryanbruen ____________ 6.8 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 080 _ 105 __ 3.1 27th Ballyhaise

    Mrstonewall ____________6.5 _ 16.3 _ -6.8 _ 072 _ 123 __ 3.6 24th Mullingar

    SleetAndSnow __________6.4 _ 15.6 _ -6.3 _ 090 _ 110 __ 3.6 20th Knock

    Danno ___ (-4) _________6.3 _ 16.4 _ -7.2 _ 065 _ 170 __ 0.7 28th Gurteen

    WesternStorm __________6.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 115 _ 090 __ 5.0 25th Claremorris

    BLIZZARD7 ____________5.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.3 _ 075 _ 125 __ -2.8c 29th Ballyhaise

    __________________________________________

    Requests sent out for the bonus question dates (two missing that) ... Con Sensus subject to adjustment for any later entries ... for the location of the coldest max, the choices were

    Mullingar 5, Knock 5, Ballyhaise 5, Mountdillon 6 (Con scores 3 if any verify)

    Oak Park 4 (Con scores 2 if OP verifies)

    Dunsany, Claremorris, Gurteen (Con scores 1 if any of these verifies)

    any other location (Con scores zero, forecasters score from performance of their location relative to actual coldest, i.e., location is second coldest, 2 points, third coldest 1 point).

    Overall scoring for bonus, 5 for value, 2 for date, 3 for location, 1 and 2 superbonus points available. ... for date, top third of field gets 2 pts, middle third 1 point, lower third zero.


    Normal scores the same way as Con for location but can get 2 for Markree and 1 for any other location inland not selected or Dublin A, zero for coastal locations and Moorepark.

    Normal scores 2 for date if 25-30, 1 if 18-24, zero if 1-17.

    ================ - ===================

    Slight changes to Con Sensus as a result of later entry ... see my post below for further info about late entry validated MAX or MIN data ... this has been required in a few situations way back when, not very often recently as far as I can recall. Late penalties are not that big a bite nowadays after I reduced them earlier (in 2019 I think it was). Added later ... actual max on 1st was apparently 16.2, so I have removed the "max 15" sticker from Danno's forecast and edited my post about it, also Eon1208 entered later but has a value that is not advantageous from knowing the result on 1st, so just the regular late penalty applies there. Anyone who shows up even later and enters 16.2 or close values will be capped at 15 for that portion.

    Also by the way, welcome to SleetAndSnow who is a regular participant in storm threads but as far as I can recall hasn't entered this contest before this month. Danno of course was quite a regular (and successful) participant many years ago (like when there was winter).


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,421 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno _______________ 6.3 _ 16.4 _ -7.2 _ 065 _ 170 __ 0.7 28th Gurteen


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,214 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Okay, will have to mention that when people enter after a likely monthly extreme is set and they quote that value in their forecast, the usual late penalty isn't really large enough to deflate that advantage, so what we have done in past situations like this (can't remember one recently, but obviously it could apply to the forecast just entered), is to cap the MAX score at 15 for that entrant as well as the late penalty. So I trust this will be seen as a fair decision here (and it would apply to anyone else who either entered later than this or a regular asking for a late penalty on revision).

    This will of course not be an issue if the max on 1st is superseded by an even higher value. Will place the forecast in the table with those provisions.

    (later edit) _ Apparently the max on 1st was 16.2, so I have removed that cap of 15 points on a forecast that is not conclusively based on a known result, poster could be thinking 16.4 will verify later in month. And since it's not a regular entrant in the late stages of the annual contest, it doesn't make much practical difference anyway. This is a rule to be applied in relevant situations later though, in case we get another situation similar to this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    8.4, 15.6, -2.7, 91%, 103%, 4 degrees - Oak Park -26th Nov..


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Max 16.2 on the 1st at Phoenix Park. Does that beat the Max for October 20.

    Bonus Question I didn’t see that I had to put in a date for a low max temperature as well as location. So my guess is 28th at Mt Dillon.


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