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Toppling the Irish State (theory)

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Comments

  • #52
    anto3473
    Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭anto3473


    I'm not calling for treason, haha its a theoretical discussion . :P (never thought I'd need to say that)

    I was pointing out how the OP's ideas of taking over garda and military bases would not work, and in order for an irregular force to defeat a professional army guerrilla tactics would be the far more likley method.

    Of course as long as there is a rule of law and a legitimate elected government in power that enforces the constitution, that kind of carry on is totally imposable.


  • #53
    Markcheese
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,567 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    anto3473 wrote: »
    In theory armies can be and have been defeated by much smaller irregular forces. The whole idea of guerrilla warfare is that you don't need to wait for all the right conditions to start an armed campaign - the insurrection in itself can create them.

    If you look at the Cuban revolution as an example; Batista's forces were never up against more than a few hundred fighters and the whole lot was started with only 82 beardy lads and a boat. The majority were killed landing in Cuba only around 20 or so survived hid among the local population in the mountains and harassed the army and generally sabotaged stuff for a few months while they played the propaganda game drumming up more support. The US stopped supplying the Cuban Army with arms, the Cuban Air Force couldn't repair their planes that were getting damaged (without US parts) while trying to attack Castro's well dug in mountain positions and air superiority was lost fairly quickly.

    12,000 soldiers were then sent in after them and Castro's crowd that now numbered about 300 ended up defeating them - even capturing a battalion of 500 men while only loosing 3 themselves. When Castro's forces were eventually pinned down by the Army he asked for a ceasefire then escaped back into the mountains again. Batista kind of realized the jig was up at this point and fled Cuba leaving Castro take over the place.

    This whole thing was possible not so much because it had popular support but rather no other country tried to stop it.

    A few thousand people could probably take over this place if

    a) No other country got involved.
    b) There was public support or at least not much public opposition.

    I wouldn't recommend trying to overthrow a government though it usually doesn't work. and there is no such thing as re-spawning in real life.

    Isn't that pretty much what happened during the war of independence here??
    It wasn't that popular to start with - but British retaliation led to more popular support - in cork there would have been about 12 -14 thousand crown forces facing a few hundred IRA volenteers - and the situation was becoming increasingly lawless -

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • #54
    anto3473
    Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭anto3473


    Markcheese wrote: »
    Isn't that pretty much what happened during the war of independence here??
    It wasn't that popular to start with - but British retaliation led to more popular support - in cork there would have been about 12 -14 thousand crown forces facing a few hundred IRA volenteers - and the situation was becoming increasingly lawless -

    Similar enough, the British public at the time had no appetite for more conflict due to world war 1 and the public opinion in Ireland changed against the British due to their brutality in trying to crush the rebellion. The lesson is that it is very difficult for a force to administer and area if they don't have public support - even if they have the edge in terms of numbers and firepower.

    Vietnam was also quite similar, the US won convincingly in the vast majority of the time when they met the VC or NVA head on. However they still lost that war because of the enemy's use of sabotage and hit and run tactics and terrorism. The only way to beat a guerrilla army is to turn public opinion against them so they have nowhere to hide.


  • #55
    IrishTrajan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,703 ✭✭✭IrishTrajan


    Toppling the Irish State would be rather simple. You simply bomb Dail Eireann when its in session, and wage an insurrectionist campaign in and around the major cities. Offer the IRA that you will fund them should you gain power, and then tell criminal gangs that you'll legalize drugs and give them high paying positions if they kick off a storm. You could also form a public group to "hunt" the gangs and promise that anyone who volunteers to be "captured" will have a comfy, short sentence and a position once they get out.

    Once the public becomes more accepting of extreme measures, you turn the IRA against the dealers and assume control (policing, justice, taxation, rebuilding) of as many areas as you can (taking a page from the Bolshevik book) and then gather popular support. Doesn't really matter who you are, or what "official position" you hold, once you hold the infrastructure and the people's belief that you hold the power, you really do hold the power.



    Or just tell the pensioners that the Government is coming for their pension, and wait for the Grey Plague to shut down the cities with protests.


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