What are the chances of a coup in Britain?

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 2:48pm #1

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

ancapailldorcha · 11-09-2019 3:02pm

Serious discussion only please. Posts deleted.

11-09-2019 3:04pm

If the Tories implode it will be constructive for wider society in Britain. Their primary concern is looking out for the tax-averse millionaire elite. Including Boris, Rees-Mogg and other Oxbridge alumni of wealthy inheritance.

11-09-2019 3:08pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

Somewhere zero and **** all is my estimation.

If politicians started to "Disappear" and judges become censored, then maybe, but the UK is a long long way from any of that.

LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2019 3:21pm

He didn’t ask if there would be a ‘revolution’. Asking about a ‘coup’ though is a more interesting question. No doubt the army command, intelligence service and civil service is watching on with interest as a succession of ever less powerful, ever less capable and ever less competent Conservative governments take over.

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 3:25pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He didn’t ask if there would be a ‘revolution’. Asking about a ‘coup’ though is a more interesting question. No doubt the army command, intelligence service and civil service is watching on with interest as a succession of ever less powerful, ever less capable and ever less competent Conservative governments take over.

Exactly. I mean the parliament is not working and it was the politicians who created this gigantic own goal of a ballsup to begin with. Mark my words big business and vested interests will not stand idly by and see everything go belly up.

Jim2007 · 11-09-2019 3:33pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

Not a serious question by any stretch of the imagination.

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 3:39pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

Not a serious question by any stretch of the imagination.

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

Tabnabs · 11-09-2019 3:42pm

How far would Jeremy Corbyn be willing to take the UK down the path of socialism? His dislike of the British military and friends in dubious regimes would be the most likely threat to peace and stability in Britain today. Viewed as an extremist by people in his own party, Corbyn may well present a problem for the UK state if he is elected as PM.

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 3:45pm

Tabnabs wrote: »

How far would Jeremy Corbyn be willing to take the UK down the path of socialism? His dislike of the British military and friends in dubious regimes would be the most likely threat to peace and stability in Britain today. Viewed as an extremist by people in his own party, Corbyn may well present a problem for the UK state if he is elected as PM.

I doubt if those organising a coup would have plans to install Jeremy Corbyn as PM.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 11-09-2019 3:46pm

A coup would never happen in Britain without the backing or involvement of MI5. So the UK does have people in the background capable of such a thing. But it would have to be very far down the road for them to get there.

It would have to involve mass unemployment, street riots and order breaking down. If Parliament was to be at standstill at that juncture I could see it happening. So we're at least 5 years away from a coup happening in Britain.

Manic Moran · 11-09-2019 3:48pm

Aegir wrote: »

Somewhere zero and **** all is my estimation.

This.

There is no indication that the rule of law has broken down. There is no indication that the Queen, to whom the military swears their oath, is going to get involved either. There is no reason for the military to consider doing anything.

tdf7187 · 11-09-2019 3:51pm

I don't think there is a high probability of a coup but the possibility should not be ruled out.

It is not widely known that there was talk of a coup against Harold Wilson's government due to a conspiracy theory, apparently shared by certain people in M15, that he was a Soviet agent. The coup plans were allegedly well advanced but called off. There has been at least one BBC documentary about this in which some of the coup plotters were interviewed on camera, so it's not some David Icke type conspiracy theory, it was real.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Wilson_conspiracy_theories

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 3:54pm

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

A coup would never happen in Britain without the backing or involvement of MI5. So the UK does have people in the background capable of such a thing. But it would have to be very far down the road for them to get there.

It would have to involve mass unemployment, street riots and order breaking down. If Parliament was to be at standstill at that juncture I could see it happening. So we're at least 5 years away from a coup happening in Britain.

Well big business and there are some mega business interests in the UK already pull a lot of the strings in politics there, and most other countries also, and they will bring change to bear if their interests are in danger. I mean Britain as we know it is already fraying at the edges what with Scotland thinking seriously of bailing out and as for N.I. !

BarryD2 · 11-09-2019 4:06pm

Only likely if you subscribe to wishful thinking.

Harry Palmr · 11-09-2019 10:16pm

This was a popular theme of the 70s and early 80s, the Wilson plot, fairly secret army, a very British coup, etc . Plausibly staging one in a country with no history of such occurrences is most unlikely. Big business certainly would not back one, it would much prefer to influence whichever government wins the next GE using the well established strategies. The army would laugh at the idea of being coopeted anyway.

Jim2007 · 12-09-2019 2:50am

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

You asked the question but so far you have not provided any kind of serious analysis to support it. You bit has well be asking the price of tea in china...

sabat · 12-09-2019 3:59am

A banana republic style coup backed by the military I would price at about 300-1. A more subtle backroom coup in which a moderate Tory is engineered to take over as a sober stabilising presence (maybe Rory "MI6" Stewart) to smooth the path to revoke (possibly via a referendum) is probably happening right now. My dream scenario would be for Mark Francois to appear on the BBC in full military regalia declaring himself generalissimo of the People's Brexit Committee.

Peregrinus · 12-09-2019 4:06am

It depends on what you mean by a "coup".

The UK already has a PM who has never secured an electoral mandate seeking to implement an extremist policy which the people voted against at the last election and which the elected parliament will not support, trying to suspend parliament so that he is not subject to democratic oversight or constraint in doing so, resorting to illegal means to suspend parliament, and threatening simply to flout laws which would restrain him from implementing his chosen policy.

If this happened in, say, Serbia, would you have any hesitation in calling it a coup?

What more would have to happen before you would think that there was at least an attempted coup under way in the UK right now? Serious question.

HalloweenJack · 12-09-2019 6:32am

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

What coups are you talking about?

Until you specify exactly what you mean by 'coup', your post could be misconstrued as being quite alarmist, frankly. I live in Spain and I'm not sure what 'coup or attempted coups in recent years' you are referring to.

Spain was given as an example in the OP, btw, before anyone says I'm misquoting the poster.

Achasanai · 12-09-2019 6:39am

realdanbreen wrote: »

I doubt if those organising a coup would have plans to install Jeremy Corbyn as PM.

Definitely not, but perhaps they would if he was elected prime minister? There was some interesting reports over the last few years as to the reaction from the army to Corbyn.

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 8:41am

Jim2007 wrote: »

You asked the question but so far you have not provided any kind of serious analysis to support it. You bit has well be asking the price of tea in china...

I always understood that you provide the serious analysis when you answered the question not when you asked it?

Brian? · 12-09-2019 8:51am

Peregrinus wrote: »

It depends on what you mean by a "coup".

The UK already has a PM who has never secured an electoral mandate seeking to implement an extremist policy which the people voted against at the last election and which the elected parliament will not support, trying to suspend parliament so that he is not subject to democratic oversight or constraint in doing so, resorting to illegal means to suspend parliament, and threatening simply to flout laws which would restrain him from implementing his chosen policy.

If this happened in, say, Serbia, would you have any hesitation in calling it a coup?

What more would have to happen before you would think that there was at least an attempted coup under way in the UK right now? Serious question.

In many ways a coup has already happened. A Prime minister with no electoral mandate just shut down parliament.

It’s normal enough to have a PM who wasn’t the head of the party during the election, but as of the shutdown the government didn’t have a majority in parliament. So essentially a party that represents less than 40% of the electorate just closed the body that’s supposed to enact the will of the electorate.

It may even be legal. The British system is ripe for this kind of nonsense for a few reasons. The main 2 being the lack of a written constitution and the first past the post election system.

So no, there won’t be a military coup. But I’m pretty sure there’s already been a coup by the old Etonians.

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 8:55am

HalloweenJack wrote: »

What coups are you talking about?

Until you specify exactly what you mean by 'coup', your post could be misconstrued as being quite alarmist, frankly. I live in Spain and I'm not sure what 'coup or attempted coups in recent years' you are referring to.

Spain was given as an example in the OP, btw, before anyone says I'm misquoting the poster.

1981/COLOR][URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_coups_d%27%C3%A9tat_and_coup_attempts&action=edit&section=81"]edit[/URL][COLOR=#54595D

Failed coup in Spain led by Antonio Tejero.
Successful military coup
in Poland led by
Wojciech Jaruzelski
.
- Military coup in Turkey.
Failed military coup
in
Spain
. 1978

1967/COLOR][URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_coups_d%27%C3%A9tat_and_coup_attempts&action=edit&section=65"]edit[/URL][COLOR=#54595D
- Military coup in Greece. Establishment of the Regime of the Colonels.

Military coup

in France. General

Jacques Massu

takes over

Algiers

and threatens to invade Paris unless

Charles de Gaulle

becomes head of state.

There's loads more if you want them.
You say you live in Spain, perhaps it's time you stirred out a bit and learned a bit of the history of the country you live in.

Tabnabs · 12-09-2019 9:05am

Brian? wrote: »

In many ways a coup has already happened. A Prime minister with no electoral mandate just shut down parliament.

It’s normal enough to have a PM who wasn’t the head of the party during the election, but as of the shutdown the government didn’t have a majority in parliament. So essentially a party that represents less than 40% of the electorate just closed the body that’s supposed to enact the will of the electorate.

It may even be legal. The British system is ripe for this kind of nonsense for a few reasons. The main 2 being the lack of a written constitution and the first past the post election system.

So no, there won’t be a military coup. But I’m pretty sure there’s already been a coup by the old Etonians.

I think you have a pretty weak understanding of British politics and their parliamentary system.

It is normal for a session of parliament to last only 12 months and the current session has lasted far longer than that. In fact, it's the longest session of parliament in over 350 years. So it's long overdue for parliament to bring the current session to an end.

The fact that parliament has done everything in its power to ensure a disastrous no-deal brexit cannot be forced onto the country is a sign of a healthy and functioning democracy.

Finally, if Labour and the Lib Dems were so worried about coups and abuse of power, they wouldn't be happily disappearing off for conference week where parliament has to shut anyway to allow the parties to hold their respective conferences (during the same time that the prorogation is happening). A system whereby parliament is shut down for an extended period to let three parties meet with their membership, directly after the long summer recess.

But no, it's Etonian conspiracy as you rightly call it out.

mrbrianj · 12-09-2019 9:17am

Its not an Etonian coup d'etat. Etonian's always had the power and still do.

Has a coup been carried out in the Eton think tank? Maybe so...

Brian? · 12-09-2019 9:22am

Tabnabs wrote: »

I think you have a pretty weak understanding of British politics and their parliamentary system.

If say my understanding is moderate at worst. The British parliamentary system is based on arcane rules and traditions. Traditions which largely amount to nonsense, imo.

It is normal for a session of parliament to last only 12 months and the current session has lasted far longer than that. In fact, it's the longest session of parliament in over 350 years. So it's long overdue for parliament to bring the current session to an end.

Hey, maybe I'm being a bit harsh here. But you don't think the whole system is nonsense? They have to cart a 90 year old woman who is appointed at birth out to restart everything?

Just because something has always been done a certain way, doesn't mean it should be done that way.

The fact that parliament has done everything in its power to ensure a disastrous no-deal brexit cannot be forced onto the country is a sign of a healthy and functioning democracy.

That's a peculiar take on it. The bill to protect against no deal was passed against government wishes, the government aren't even clear they will do anything about it and then parliament is suspended.

Finally, if Labour and the Lib Dems were so worried about coups and abuse of power, they wouldn't be happily disappearing off for conference week where parliament has to shut anyway to allow the parties to hold their respective conferences (during the same time that the prorogation is happening). A system whereby parliament is shut down for an extended period to let three parties meet with their membership, directly after the long summer recess.

But no, it's Etonian conspiracy as you rightly call it out.

Oh that's fine then. They have conferences to go to. More nonsense traditions and loose rules that mean it's almost impossible to get anything done.

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 12-09-2019 9:25am

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

What European countries are these and what do you mean by recent?

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 10:02am

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

What European countries are these and what do you mean by recent?

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.

jmayo · 12-09-2019 10:19am

sabat wrote: »

A banana republic style coup backed by the military I would price at about 300-1. A more subtle backroom coup in which a moderate Tory is engineered to take over as a sober stabilising presence (maybe Rory "MI6" Stewart) to smooth the path to revoke (possibly via a referendum) is probably happening right now. My dream scenario would be for Mark Francois to appear on the BBC in full military regalia declaring himself generalissimo of the People's Brexit Committee.

Governments come and go, but there are always the same ones running the show in the background.
And if push came to shove they would dispose, probably in a non lethal way, of troublesome leaders and just install new more benign ones.
The fact that Johnson has gotten there at all is what is quite surprising, as they must have warehouses full of files about his shenanigans.

Then again, putting my cynical hat on, maybe this turmoil is what they want so that they tighten their grip.

The reach of the intelligence services (be they Army, MI5, Police) is quite large.
Also the British military have never really been the mutinous type, the colonials apart, and for a coup to work you need Army.

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 12-09-2019 10:27am

realdanbreen wrote: »

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.

I wouldn’t describe any of those as recent. Spain was coming out of a fascist dictatorship in the 70s

HalloweenJack · 12-09-2019 10:49am

@realdanbreen.

38 years ago is recent? Seriously? I know perception of time is related to people's age but you'd have to be a hundred to conisder something that happened 38 years ago as 'recent'. I'm well aware of Spanish history, I've lived here for seven years (not much time in your world, I'm sure). In 1981, Spain was isolated and slowly transitioning from a military dictatorship into a democracy. Spain in 1981 is quite different from the UK in 2019.

I would consider things that have happened since the beginning of the Brexit/populist strongman era (since the run-up to the 2015 GE and the elections of the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, et al.) to be recent in a political context.

In that time, what coups have there been? The failed one in Turkey? Does Turkey have the same political situation as the UK?

I doubt one is coming round the corner in the UK. It's not impossible, nothing is if recent developments in politics is anything to go by, but it is highly unlikely. There are too many eyes on the UK for a military coup (this is the definition of coup the OP clarified and wants to run with). It would only push them further into isolation and I think it is slowly dawning on them that that won't be such a great thing. Politically, I imagine there are enough checks and balances to stop this situation escalating.

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 11:15am

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.

I wouldn’t describe any of those as recent. Spain was coming out of a fascist dictatorship in the 70s

Oh right, you reckoned I was referring to some coup that happened last night!

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 11:19am

HalloweenJack wrote: »

@realdanbreen.

38 years ago is recent? Seriously? I know perception of time is related to people's age but you'd have to be a hundred to conisder something that happened 38 years ago as 'recent'. I'm well aware of Spanish history, I've lived here for seven years (not much time in your world, I'm sure). In 1981, Spain was isolated and slowly transitioning from a military dictatorship into a democracy. Spain in 1981 is quite different from the UK in 2019.

I would consider things that have happened since the beginning of the Brexit/populist strongman era (since the run-up to the 2015 GE and the elections of the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, et al.) to be recent in a political context.

In that time, what coups have there been? The failed one in Turkey? Does Turkey have the same political situation as the UK?

I doubt one is coming round the corner in the UK. It's not impossible, nothing is if recent developments in politics is anything to go by, but it is highly unlikely. There are too many eyes on the UK for a military coup (this is the definition of coup the OP clarified and wants to run with). It would only push them further into isolation and I think it is slowly dawning on them that that won't be such a great thing. Politically, I imagine there are enough checks and balances to stop this situation escalating.

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

Jim2007 · 12-09-2019 11:20am

realdanbreen wrote: »

I always understood that you provide the serious analysis when you answered the question not when you asked it?

OK, buy yourself an extra role of tinfoil and you'll being fine. Alternatively ask these kind of questions on a conspiracy forum.

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 12-09-2019 11:22am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Oh right, you reckoned I was referring to some coup that happened last night!

If you use the word recent then you have to justify it. Those countries that had coups also have a different relationship between army and state.

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 12-09-2019 11:29am

realdanbreen wrote: »

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

Which would make WWII about 10 minutes ago and mean the napoleonic war ended about 26 minutes ago.

Everything is recent.

faceman · 12-09-2019 11:44am

While highly unlikely, at the same time of you think back 5 years who would have thought Brexit, a mass firing of Tories, manipulation of the law to suit a PM agenda would also would be a thing.

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 11:56am

Jim2007 wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

I always understood that you provide the serious analysis when you answered the question not when you asked it?

OK, buy yourself an extra role of tinfoil and you'll being fine. Alternatively ask these kind of questions on a conspiracy forum.

tinfoil? I didn't mention conspiracy you did.

Brian? · 12-09-2019 12:04pm

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Which would make WWII about 10 minutes ago and mean the napoleonic war ended about 26 minutes ago.

Everything is recent.

In fairness, if something happened within my lifetime I’d consider it recent.

Zubeneschamali · 12-09-2019 12:11pm

Peregrinus wrote: »

It depends on what you mean by a "coup".

I certainly don't regard Johnson bumbling about knocking over traditions and setting records for incompetence is a coup.

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...

I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

mariaalice · 12-09-2019 12:31pm

In the 1970s a retired army Major in the UK had a go.

t sounds fantastic, almost comic. But watch Greenwood talk of setting up his own private army in 1974-75. Listen to the former intelligence officer Brian Crozier admit his lobbying of the army, how they "seriously considered the possibility of a military takeover"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/mar/15/comment.labour1

mariaalice · 12-09-2019 12:37pm

retired Major Alexander Greenwood, Colonel Blimp made flesh.

The great and the good feared that the country was out of control, and that Wilson lacked either the will or the desire to stand firm. Retired intelligence officers gathered with military brass and plotted a coup d'etat. They would seize Heathrow airport, the BBC and Buckingham Palace. Lord Mountbatten would be the strongman, acting as interim prime minister. The Queen would read a statement urging the public to support the armed forces, because the government was no longer able to keep order.

HalloweenJack · 12-09-2019 12:37pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

Tejerazo is no longer relevant to political discourse in Spain. Therefore, it can hardlt be considered recent.

Brexit is very much of recent relevance in the current political context.

4068ac1elhodqr · 12-09-2019 12:40pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...
I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

From the yellowhammer (only 5 pages?, with many parts redacted on the grounds of commercial sensitivity)

"Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. "There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions."

If a modern progressive state such as HK can almost shut down over some policy, perhaps anything is possible. Throw in fuel, food and medical shortages with immediate price hikes could get messy.

More likely is yet another 3mth delay, more fumbling about, and sooner or later the saviour of sorts JC will arrive with his interesting array of policy (some good some bad). 4-day work weeks, taxes on the rich, open doors and Brexitish2.0.

mariaalice · 12-09-2019 12:47pm

I am reasonably sure Brexit will work its self out, however, people are very naive if they don't think there are civil emergency plans if thing go wrong not a coup, but school and university would be closed for a few days that sort of thing.

4068ac1elhodqr · 12-09-2019 12:59pm

mariaalice wrote: »

...but school and university would be closed for a few days that sort of thing.

Likely the least of their worries, peoples bigger concerns would be finding a working ATM, filling up their wagons with gas, sourcing medicine, fresh food and paying new bills that will rise overnight as a couple of hundred thousand confront each other in the city.

James Brown · 12-09-2019 3:54pm

There was a coup. Johnson is still engaging in it.

20silkcut · 14-09-2019 9:14am

faceman wrote: »

While highly unlikely, at the same time of you think back 5 years who would have thought Brexit, a mass firing of Tories, manipulation of the law to suit a PM agenda would also would be a thing.

In fairness mass firing of moderate tories was unthinkable at the start of this year when Theresa May was doing everything to hold the party together.

20silkcut · 14-09-2019 9:21am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I certainly don't regard Johnson bumbling about knocking over traditions and setting records for incompetence is a coup.

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...

I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

If you look at the Venezuela situation and I don’t have much knowledge of it but it does appear to be a country in conditions similar or probably far beyond a worst case brexit scenario, and the government is still in power spouting spurious rhetoric and fantasy as to why they are in the situation they are in. People can put up with a lot if they buy in to what they are told or if the army stays on side I suppose.
I have no doubt hard brexiteers will put up with a lot of hardship to follow through on brexit and unfortunately all the political charisma and energy is on their side to sell whatever narrative needs to be sold.
However it is still difficult to believe such a situation could occur in such a sophisticated well connected prime located country like the UK. So much depends on this Supreme Court ruling next week.

alentejo · 14-09-2019 10:02am

A coup in Britain? One should read Chris Mullin's "a very British Coup". An excellent read which was written over 30 years ago but so relevant with the political chaos in the UK.

What are the chances of a coup in Britain?

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