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What are the chances of a coup in Britain?

realdanbreen

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

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Peregrinus

You're assuming that a coup has to be led by the Queen?

sandbelter

Coup is zero likelihood. The best and most relevant precedent is the dismissal of the Australian government on Nov 11th, 1975.

Here the crown played a passive role. The then speaker of the Australian House of Representatives send letter to the Queen to intervene.

The pertinent part of the reply is this;

"Her Majesty, as Queen of Australia, is watching events in Canberra with close interest and attention, but it would not be proper for her to intervene in person in matters which are so clearly placed within the jurisdiction of the Governor-General by the Constitution Act."

Replace "jurisdiction of the Governor-General by the Constitution Act" with "Westminster parliamentary procedures" and you get the likely attitude of the Queen, who is head of the armed forces. Additionally she is also mindful of how intervention gave Australian republicanism a short in the arm. So no coup, at least under the current Monarch. Charles.....different kettle of fish.

So I agree with the riots scenario.

NotToScale

I’d suspect the more likely outcome is going to be serious social unrest. The UK has a track record for this, despite the stiff upper lip marketing that somehow managed to portray the country as pragmatic and sensible, it really never has been.

Go back to the Poll Tax riots, the Miners’ Strikes, the Winter of Discontent etc etc even the Troubles in Northern Ireland occurred in the UK, despite their attempt to see it as somewhere else.

Then more recently you’d the London riots and you’ve had the assassination of an MP.

A coup isn’t likely, chaos, disruption and violence however seem to be and I suspect you will see that if there’s actual issues with food supply or power or something like that when Brexit happens. It’s a country where people called 999 when KFC had a minor disruption that caused them to run out of chicken!

realdanbreen

realdanbreen wrote: »

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

Looking at the images coming from the house of commons last night I don't think it's too far fetched.

Eric Cartman

Deleted User wrote: »

Peter Hitchens has longed for the death of the Tory Party. He might get his wish soon.

There'll be a split, undoubtedly.

Corbyn has done a great job keeping Labour together despite the differences in the party.

A coup on the otherhand, I doubt it somehow.

the only way he's keeping them together is sheilding them from critacism behind his magic forcefield of not being able to win an election. They'd much rather shout from the cheap seats knowing that theres not a chance they'll be put to task to sort out brexit. As soon as all this mess is sorted theyll swap him for someone who can win.

[Deleted User]

Peter Hitchens has longed for the death of the Tory Party. He might get his wish soon.

There'll be a split, undoubtedly.

Corbyn has done a great job keeping Labour together despite the differences in the party.

A coup on the otherhand, I doubt it somehow.

RandomName2

realdanbreen wrote: »

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

What sort of coup? The one where a minority political force becomes the de facto government through force of arms? The separation of politics and the army in the UK seems pretty conclusive, I can't see any chance of a political group exerting force by using the army.

The difference that Brexit would make is a motivation by Remainers to undo Article 50, but they are working against a legitimacy deficit in the first place seeing that the public voted for just that, returned (barely) a government that said it was going to carry it out, and pro-Brexit parties are polling at 55% (even if, interestingly, a hypothetical second referendum is apparently only polling at 45% Leave) .

Not saying that Remainers or Leavers aren't and won't resort to political dirty tricks (a lá John Major and Maastricht), but those are a far cry from using physical force.

The other motivation is of course by pro-Bexit politicians who want a deal. These politicians are already in a majority in parliament, so there's no coup required. The problem is that these politicians can't agree what kind of agreement is desired.

And finally you have the pro-Brexit politicians who don't want a deal at all. These are in the minority, but they don't need a coup. All they need for no deal to happen is literally nothing at all.

alentejo

A coup in Britain? One should read Chris Mullin's "a very British Coup". An excellent read which was written over 30 years ago but so relevant with the political chaos in the UK.

20silkcut

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I certainly don't regard Johnson bumbling about knocking over traditions and setting records for incompetence is a coup.

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...

I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

If you look at the Venezuela situation and I don’t have much knowledge of it but it does appear to be a country in conditions similar or probably far beyond a worst case brexit scenario, and the government is still in power spouting spurious rhetoric and fantasy as to why they are in the situation they are in. People can put up with a lot if they buy in to what they are told or if the army stays on side I suppose.
I have no doubt hard brexiteers will put up with a lot of hardship to follow through on brexit and unfortunately all the political charisma and energy is on their side to sell whatever narrative needs to be sold.
However it is still difficult to believe such a situation could occur in such a sophisticated well connected prime located country like the UK. So much depends on this Supreme Court ruling next week.

20silkcut

faceman wrote: »

While highly unlikely, at the same time of you think back 5 years who would have thought Brexit, a mass firing of Tories, manipulation of the law to suit a PM agenda would also would be a thing.

In fairness mass firing of moderate tories was unthinkable at the start of this year when Theresa May was doing everything to hold the party together.

James Brown

There was a coup. Johnson is still engaging in it.

4068ac1elhodqr

mariaalice wrote: »

...but school and university would be closed for a few days that sort of thing.

Likely the least of their worries, peoples bigger concerns would be finding a working ATM, filling up their wagons with gas, sourcing medicine, fresh food and paying new bills that will rise overnight as a couple of hundred thousand confront each other in the city.

[Deleted User]

I am reasonably sure Brexit will work its self out, however, people are very naive if they don't think there are civil emergency plans if thing go wrong not a coup, but school and university would be closed for a few days that sort of thing.

4068ac1elhodqr

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...
I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

From the yellowhammer (only 5 pages?, with many parts redacted on the grounds of commercial sensitivity)

"Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. "There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions."

If a modern progressive state such as HK can almost shut down over some policy, perhaps anything is possible. Throw in fuel, food and medical shortages with immediate price hikes could get messy.

More likely is yet another 3mth delay, more fumbling about, and sooner or later the saviour of sorts JC will arrive with his interesting array of policy (some good some bad). 4-day work weeks, taxes on the rich, open doors and Brexitish2.0.

HalloweenJack

realdanbreen wrote: »

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

Tejerazo is no longer relevant to political discourse in Spain. Therefore, it can hardlt be considered recent.

Brexit is very much of recent relevance in the current political context.

[Deleted User]

retired Major Alexander Greenwood, Colonel Blimp made flesh.

The great and the good feared that the country was out of control, and that Wilson lacked either the will or the desire to stand firm. Retired intelligence officers gathered with military brass and plotted a coup d'etat. They would seize Heathrow airport, the BBC and Buckingham Palace. Lord Mountbatten would be the strongman, acting as interim prime minister. The Queen would read a statement urging the public to support the armed forces, because the government was no longer able to keep order.

[Deleted User]

In the 1970s a retired army Major in the UK had a go.

t sounds fantastic, almost comic. But watch Greenwood talk of setting up his own private army in 1974-75. Listen to the former intelligence officer Brian Crozier admit his lobbying of the army, how they "seriously considered the possibility of a military takeover"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/mar/15/comment.labour1

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

It depends on what you mean by a "coup".

I certainly don't regard Johnson bumbling about knocking over traditions and setting records for incompetence is a coup.

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...

I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

Brian?

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Which would make WWII about 10 minutes ago and mean the napoleonic war ended about 26 minutes ago.

Everything is recent.

In fairness, if something happened within my lifetime I’d consider it recent.

realdanbreen

Jim2007 wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

I always understood that you provide the serious analysis when you answered the question not when you asked it?

OK, buy yourself an extra role of tinfoil and you'll being fine. Alternatively ask these kind of questions on a conspiracy forum.

tinfoil? I didn't mention conspiracy you did.

faceman

While highly unlikely, at the same time of you think back 5 years who would have thought Brexit, a mass firing of Tories, manipulation of the law to suit a PM agenda would also would be a thing.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

realdanbreen wrote: »

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

Which would make WWII about 10 minutes ago and mean the napoleonic war ended about 26 minutes ago.

Everything is recent.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

realdanbreen wrote: »

Oh right, you reckoned I was referring to some coup that happened last night!

If you use the word recent then you have to justify it. Those countries that had coups also have a different relationship between army and state.

Jim2007

realdanbreen wrote: »

I always understood that you provide the serious analysis when you answered the question not when you asked it?

OK, buy yourself an extra role of tinfoil and you'll being fine. Alternatively ask these kind of questions on a conspiracy forum.

realdanbreen

HalloweenJack wrote: »

@realdanbreen.

38 years ago is recent? Seriously? I know perception of time is related to people's age but you'd have to be a hundred to conisder something that happened 38 years ago as 'recent'. I'm well aware of Spanish history, I've lived here for seven years (not much time in your world, I'm sure). In 1981, Spain was isolated and slowly transitioning from a military dictatorship into a democracy. Spain in 1981 is quite different from the UK in 2019.

I would consider things that have happened since the beginning of the Brexit/populist strongman era (since the run-up to the 2015 GE and the elections of the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, et al.) to be recent in a political context.

In that time, what coups have there been? The failed one in Turkey? Does Turkey have the same political situation as the UK?

I doubt one is coming round the corner in the UK. It's not impossible, nothing is if recent developments in politics is anything to go by, but it is highly unlikely. There are too many eyes on the UK for a military coup (this is the definition of coup the OP clarified and wants to run with). It would only push them further into isolation and I think it is slowly dawning on them that that won't be such a great thing. Politically, I imagine there are enough checks and balances to stop this situation escalating.

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

realdanbreen

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.

I wouldn’t describe any of those as recent. Spain was coming out of a fascist dictatorship in the 70s

Oh right, you reckoned I was referring to some coup that happened last night!

HalloweenJack

@realdanbreen.

38 years ago is recent? Seriously? I know perception of time is related to people's age but you'd have to be a hundred to conisder something that happened 38 years ago as 'recent'. I'm well aware of Spanish history, I've lived here for seven years (not much time in your world, I'm sure). In 1981, Spain was isolated and slowly transitioning from a military dictatorship into a democracy. Spain in 1981 is quite different from the UK in 2019.

I would consider things that have happened since the beginning of the Brexit/populist strongman era (since the run-up to the 2015 GE and the elections of the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, et al.) to be recent in a political context.

In that time, what coups have there been? The failed one in Turkey? Does Turkey have the same political situation as the UK?

I doubt one is coming round the corner in the UK. It's not impossible, nothing is if recent developments in politics is anything to go by, but it is highly unlikely. There are too many eyes on the UK for a military coup (this is the definition of coup the OP clarified and wants to run with). It would only push them further into isolation and I think it is slowly dawning on them that that won't be such a great thing. Politically, I imagine there are enough checks and balances to stop this situation escalating.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

realdanbreen wrote: »

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.

I wouldn’t describe any of those as recent. Spain was coming out of a fascist dictatorship in the 70s

jmayo

sabat wrote: »

A banana republic style coup backed by the military I would price at about 300-1. A more subtle backroom coup in which a moderate Tory is engineered to take over as a sober stabilising presence (maybe Rory "MI6" Stewart) to smooth the path to revoke (possibly via a referendum) is probably happening right now. My dream scenario would be for Mark Francois to appear on the BBC in full military regalia declaring himself generalissimo of the People's Brexit Committee.

Governments come and go, but there are always the same ones running the show in the background.
And if push came to shove they would dispose, probably in a non lethal way, of troublesome leaders and just install new more benign ones.
The fact that Johnson has gotten there at all is what is quite surprising, as they must have warehouses full of files about his shenanigans.

Then again, putting my cynical hat on, maybe this turmoil is what they want so that they tighten their grip.

The reach of the intelligence services (be they Army, MI5, Police) is quite large.
Also the British military have never really been the mutinous type, the colonials apart, and for a coup to work you need Army.

realdanbreen

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

What European countries are these and what do you mean by recent?

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.