GE2020: Kildare North

Brussels Sprout · 20-01-2020 3:41pm #1

These are the candidates in the race so far:

Deputy Bernard Durkan (Fine Gael),
Senator Anthony Lawlor (Fine Gael),
Deputy Frank O’Rourke (Fianna Fail),
Deputy James Lawless (Fianna Fail),
Réada Cronin (Sinn Féin),
Emmet Stagg (Labour Party),
Deputy Catherine Murphy (Social Democrats),
Cllr. Vincent P Martin (Green Party),
Pól Mac Mathuna (People Before Profit),
Séamus ӒRiain (Renua)

All 4 sitting TDs are running. Will FF be able to hold on to their 2 seats and if not then who is most likely to gain?

L1011 · 20-01-2020 3:56pm

Its FF with two seats, not FG. FG had two 11-16 but that won't happen this time.

Murphy is safe, poll topper again I'd imagine
Lawless is safe
Durkan I'd assume is safe but he came close to losing it to FF in 2002; similar polling situation
O'Rourke's popularity has dwindled, his stance on the 8th (tried to block even holding the referendum) will lose him a lot of the floating voters and I've heard some very negative reactions offline also.

My guess is either a three way fight for the fourth seat (O'Rourke/Martin/Stagg) or a four way fight with them and Durkan for the last two.

marieholmfan · 20-01-2020 3:59pm

L1011 wrote: »

Its FF with two seats, not FG. FG had two 11-16 but that won't happen this time.

Murphy is safe, poll topper again I'd imagine
Lawless is safe
Durkan I'd assume is safe but he came close to losing it to FF in 2002; similar polling situation
O'Rourke's popularity has dwindled, his stance on the 8th (tried to block even holding the referendum) will lose him a lot of the floating voters and I've heard some very negative reactions offline also.

My guess is either a three way fight for the fourth seat (O'Rourke/Martin/Stagg) or a four way fight with them and Durkan for the last two.

I've always voted Stagg 2 but even though he has been a great servant to the area he is 76. It's just too old.

Brussels Sprout · 20-01-2020 4:17pm

L1011 wrote: »

Its FF with two seats, not FG. FG had two 11-16 but that won't happen this time.
.

corrected, thanks

BaronVon · 20-01-2020 4:20pm

L1011 wrote: »

Its FF with two seats, not FG. FG had two 11-16 but that won't happen this time.

Murphy is safe, poll topper again I'd imagine
Lawless is safe
Durkan I'd assume is safe but he came close to losing it to FF in 2002; similar polling situation
O'Rourke's popularity has dwindled, his stance on the 8th (tried to block even holding the referendum) will lose him a lot of the floating voters and I've heard some very negative reactions offline also.

My guess is either a three way fight for the fourth seat (O'Rourke/Martin/Stagg) or a four way fight with them and Durkan for the last two.

Good analysis, but I reckon Lawlor would be in the fight for the fourth seat too.

L1011 · 20-01-2020 4:31pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

I've always voted Stagg 2 but even though he has been a great servant to the area he is 76. It's just too old.

Durkan is only months younger than him; Murphy is also over 65 (just - 66). It isn't a young field of candidates.

Vincent Martin doesn't look massively young either actually - 20 years as a barrister after originally being a teacher suggests late 50s at least.
edit: he was SU president in 1990 so that'd suggest early 50s actually.

BaronVon wrote: »

Good analysis, but I reckon Lawlor would be in the fight for the fourth seat too.

I don't see the votes there if Durkan is home and dry. If he's not and they're both in the melee, yes definitely - didn't remember that possibility!

The areas that were transferred to Kildare South this time around would have been strong FG boxes; and Lawlor boxes at that based on the sort-of area split that was done.

Orion · 20-01-2020 6:16pm

L1011 wrote: »

Its FF with two seats, not FG. FG had two 11-16 but that won't happen this time.

Murphy is safe, poll topper again I'd imagine
Lawless is safe
Durkan I'd assume is safe but he came close to losing it to FF in 2002; similar polling situation
O'Rourke's popularity has dwindled, his stance on the 8th (tried to block even holding the referendum) will lose him a lot of the floating voters and I've heard some very negative reactions offline also.

My guess is either a three way fight for the fourth seat (O'Rourke/Martin/Stagg) or a four way fight with them and Durkan for the last two.

Disagree that Lawless is safe. He's under severe pressure from both Lawlor and Martin for the Naas/Clane seat. It'll be a three way battle with them not with O'Rourke.

My prediction:
Murphy
Durkan
O'Rourke
Martin or Lawlor

L1011 · 20-01-2020 6:32pm

O'Rourke is relying on Celbridge to vote for him en masse again when he's out of touch with ~75% of the town (and has had a lot less opening of envelope pics in the local papers for whatever reason) and there is definitely not the votes for two FG after the boundary change.

If there's as much turbulence in Naas/Clane as you say only Murphy is a cert

subpar · 20-01-2020 6:36pm

Stagg must have a real fighting chance , he has vast experience and integrity.He should do well from the distribution of Murphy's surplus.

marieholmfan · 20-01-2020 6:47pm

L1011 wrote: »

O'Rourke is relying on Celbridge to vote for him en masse again when he's out of touch with ~75% of the town (and has had a lot less opening of envelope pics in the local papers for whatever reason) and there is definitely not the votes for two FG after the boundary change.

I googled Catherine Murphy - she's actually 67 that changes the dynamic a bit.
I can vote Stagg 1 with a clean conscience.

If a cow calves in Ardclough, Frank O'Rourke will claim to be its father; people are aware of this and not that amused by it.
His mileage claim was quite bizarre and he was caught for it unlike Lawless whose mileage claim is his leap card. O'Rourke voted against the holding of the abortion referendum in a constituency which was 4-1 for the right to have an abortion.

I've always liked Durkan and have given him a preference in the past but if he's in his 70s I won't be giving him a preference.

Anthony Lawlor was the victim of a dirty tricks campaign from the Liffey Champion and the Rye River Brewery at the last election and he's a nice guy but I'm not voting for him.

Rulmeq · 20-01-2020 7:31pm

subpar wrote: »

Stagg must have a real fighting chance , he has vast experience and integrity.He should do well from the distribution of Murphy's surplus.

He called to the door last November (the week of the speculation that there might be an early election), he's sprightly for his age, don't think his age should rule him out.

Orion · 20-01-2020 10:17pm

subpar wrote: »

Stagg must have a real fighting chance , he has vast experience and integrity.He should do well from the distribution of Murphy's surplus.

What surplus? Even if she gets in on the first count again the surplus will be small - last election it was 1320 and Stagg only got 200 of those.

It's eliminations Stagg will be looking for transfers from and I don't think he'll get them.

As for integrity?

Orion · 20-01-2020 10:23pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

O'Rourke voted against the holding of the abortion referendum in a constituency which was 4-1 for the right to have an abortion.

He also opposed SSM and people still vote for him. Don't forget Celbridge gave Ide Cussen 12% and Michael Coleman 22% of the vote in LE19. The prolife vote hasn't gone away.

Eric Cartman · 20-01-2020 10:24pm

Orion wrote: »

Disagree that Lawless is safe. He's under severe pressure from both Lawlor and Martin for the Naas/Clane seat. It'll be a three way battle with them not with O'Rourke.

My prediction:
Murphy
Durkan
O'Rourke
Martin or Lawlor

I cant see O'Rourke out doing lawless but ill take your word for it. Murphy is the only dead cert for whatever insane reason.... I cant see martin going anywhere unless all of kildare norths commuters and rural dwellers have a massive misunderstanding of what the greens are for.

Orion · 20-01-2020 10:24pm

L1011 wrote: »

O'Rourke is relying on Celbridge to vote for him en masse again when he's out of touch with ~75% of the town (and has had a lot less opening of envelope pics in the local papers for whatever reason) and there is definitely not the votes for two FG after the boundary change.

If there's as much turbulence in Naas/Clane as you say only Murphy is a cert

We'll see. It all depends on how the Green wave is going. If it is still strong Martin will get in. If not then I think North Kildare will be the only constituency in the country where FG take a seat from FF. My opinion anyway.

Eric Cartman · 20-01-2020 10:29pm

Orion wrote: »

We'll see. It all depends on how the Green wave is going. If it is still strong Martin will get in. If not then I think North Kildare will be the only constituency in the country where FG take a seat from FF. My opinion anyway.

Martin did well in the locals but aside from celbridge and maynooth there was almost no apetite for the greens in the rest of kildare. I think the GE is a bit more important and people realise that the greens being kingmakers is a recipie for tax disaster especially when we are one of the largest electoral areas for dublin commuters.

Stealthirl · 21-01-2020 1:58am

Is there any resign to not give Mac Mathuna (People Before Profit) and
Séamus ӒRiain (Renua) a vote ?

Struggling this year to make a decision except i wont vote for Stagg or Frank (but i never have) id give Lab a vote but not Stagg.

L1011 · 21-01-2020 8:26am

Renua are a crackpot hard right party determined to bring Ireland back to the 1950s

PBP are a crackpot hard left party determined to bring Ireland to Russia circa 1981

Eric Cartman · 21-01-2020 9:40am

L1011 wrote: »

Renua are a crackpot hard right party determined to bring Ireland back to the 1950s

PBP are a crackpot hard left party determined to bring Ireland to Russia circa 1981

The parties of breadlines, one at an altar pretending to be the body of christ, the other a stale loaf of wholemeal outside the community cetre

marieholmfan · 21-01-2020 11:17am

Stealthirl wrote: »

Is there any resign to not give Mac Mathuna (People Before Profit) and
Séamus ӒRiain (Renua) a vote ?

Struggling this year to make a decision except i wont vote for Stagg or Frank (but i never have) id give Lab a vote but not Stagg.

Why not Stagg. Believe me he was a great TD. He's done alot for people.
Of course you have your own reasons and you don't have to share them.

There's no reason not to give MacMathuna a vote if you don't want Stagg.

A vote like
MacMathuna 1,
Murphy 2,
Martin 3,
Durkan 4,
Lawless 5
Makes perfect sense.

Now for me it isn't true because I want Emmett Stagg and Catherine Murphy.

So I vote Stagg 1 ,
Murphy 2 ,
MacMathuna 3 or Martin 3,
Durkan 5,
Lawlor or Lawless 6
Cronin 8

I won't vote for Frank because of the mileage thing (Lawless takes the train to work and doesn't claim mileage ,though I believe he gets the whole cost of his leap card refunded, but as things to complain about politicians go that's not too much!) .

What way did they all vote on the abortion referendum?

Orion · 21-01-2020 11:34am

marieholmfan wrote: »

What way did they all vote on the abortion referendum?

Reada Cronin actively canvassed for Repeal.
Catherine Murphy fully supported and her staff canvassed.
Stagg and Durkan supported. I'm pretty sure Lawlor did too.
O'Rourke completely against.
Lawless was against but came out in favour a day or two before the referendum.
Don't know about Martin but Green Party supported.
PbP obviously in favour but not aware of anything this candidate has done - at all.
Renua - obviously against.

Seth Brundle · 21-01-2020 11:42am

marieholmfan wrote: »

Why not Stagg. Believe me he was a great TD. He's done alot for people.
Of course you have your own reasons and you don't have to share them.

My memory is that when he was a TD, Stagg was a great County Councillor.

marieholmfan wrote: »

What way did they all vote on the abortion referendum?

Not sure about the others but from memory both James Lawless dithered but then was for it and Frank O'Rourke was against repealing it.

marieholmfan · 21-01-2020 11:50am

Orion wrote: »

Reada Cronin actively canvassed for Repeal.
Catherine Murphy fully supported and her staff canvassed.
Stagg and Durkan supported. I'm pretty sure Lawlor did too.
O'Rourke completely against.
Lawless was against but came out in favour a day or two before the referendum.
Don't know about Martin but Green Party supported.
PbP obviously in favour but not aware of anything this candidate has done - at all.
Renua - obviously against.

Thanks Orion - I might alter my pattern slightly to give Reada Cronin a higher preference.
For some reason I thought she was against the right to have an abortion.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

My memory is that when he was a TD, Stagg as a great County Councillor.

Not sure about the others but from memory both James Lawless dithered but then was for it and Frank O'Rourke was against repealing it.

That's a good line Seth!
Love it!

Sorry Seth & Orion did Lawless vote in favour of the holding of the referendum. I'm not hugely concerned about how they campaigned on the issue during the referendum campaign.

Eric Cartman · 21-01-2020 11:59am

Lawless stayed as far out of giving an opinion on it as possible afaik. Didnt vote to oppose at aby tume afaik.

Seth Brundle · 21-01-2020 12:16pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

Sorry Seth & Orion did Lawless vote in favour of the holding of the referendum. I'm not hugely concerned about how they campaigned on the issue during the referendum campaign.

Who knows how thye voted (as it is a secret).
He campaigned against it but then appeared to change his mind

From https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/anti-abortion-td-criticises-fellow-no-campaigners-1.3500458

Mr Lawless said: “The absolutism of many No campaigners to countenance even the slightest change or any divergence from the status quo leaves behind a lot of the middle ground that may have be open to more moderate argument.

“Something has to give and it is a case of being part of that conversation or allow others to drive it. I think the majority of Irish people are in the middle but unfortunately this referendum has been reduced to two binary options, neither of which are palatable to many.

“The status quo is not working and I think a lot of Irish people get that but neither are they comfortable with the proposals on the table. I actually hold quite fundamental beliefs, I just don’t believe it is right to enforce them on others.”

In a survey by theJournal.ie, he said no to the following question: Are you personally in favour of repealing the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution?
https://www.thejournal.ie/8th-amendment-td-survey-2772559-Jun2016/

Orion · 21-01-2020 12:43pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

Thanks Orion - I might alter my pattern slightly to give Reada Cronin a higher preference.
For some reason I thought she was against the right to have an abortion.

That's a good line Seth!
Love it!

Sorry Seth & Orion did Lawless vote in favour of the holding of the referendum. I'm not hugely concerned about how they campaigned on the issue during the referendum campaign.

Reada was an integral part of the Maynooth Repeal group. I say this out of fairness as I won't be voting SF anyway.

Lawless didn't vote against holding the referendum. He supported putting it to the people although was at the time going to vote no in it.
O'Rourke did vote against having a referendum.

Orion · 21-01-2020 12:44pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Who knows how thye voted (as it is a secret).
He campaigned against it but then appeared to change his mind

We're talking about the Dail vote to hold a referendum. That's public.

a day or two before the referendum he went on radio saying was voting yes.

Seth Brundle · 21-01-2020 1:46pm

Orion wrote: »

We're talking about the Dail vote to hold a referendum. That's public.

a day or two before the referendum he went on radio saying was voting yes.

I see that now, thanks.

marieholmfan · 21-01-2020 1:56pm

Orion wrote: »

We're talking about the Dail vote to hold a referendum. That's public.

a day or two before the referendum he went on radio saying was voting yes.

Yeah seeing women jammed into the places where the pro repeal organisation was being organised would make any politician change his mind!

Orion · 21-01-2020 2:07pm

Interesting odds. Martin might be worth a punt

BaronVon · 21-01-2020 2:12pm

Orion wrote: »

Reada was an integral part of the Maynooth Repeal group. I say this out of fairness as I won't be voting SF anyway.

Lawless didn't vote against holding the referendum. He supported putting it to the people although was at the time going to vote no in it.
O'Rourke did vote against having a referendum.

O'Rourke also voted against the Thirty-sixth Amendment of the Constitution Bill 2018, when it could well be argued that he had a clear mandate from the electorate, and his constituency. Lawless voted in favour of the Bill, as did Murphy and Durkan.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/dail/2018-03-21/57/

The Oireachtas website is a great resource for finding out how the incumbent TD's have represented us in the last 4 years!

BaronVon · 21-01-2020 2:18pm

BaronVon wrote: »

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/dail/2018-03-21/57/

The Oireachtas website is a great resource for finding out how the incumbent TD's have represented us in the last 4 years!

As is this page which has attendance records, expenses claimed, and minutes of meetings, for County Councillors.

ShyMets · 21-01-2020 3:46pm

I think the breakdown will be as follows:

1 SD
1 FF
1 FG

The fourth seat is a lottery. Could easily see O'Rourke missing out with either Stagg of Martin taking the last seat

marieholmfan · 21-01-2020 4:02pm

ShyMets wrote: »

I think the breakdown will be as follows:

1 SD
1 FF
1 FG

The fourth seat is a lottery. Could easily see O'Rourke missing out with either Stagg of Martin taking the last seat

Ivan Yeates reckoned that Frank O'Rourke would stay in and Lawless would lose his seat ; he also thought that more people would dislike Durkan than like him.

ShyMets · 21-01-2020 4:14pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

Ivan Yeates reckoned that Frank O'Rourke would stay in and Lawless would lose his seat ; he also thought that more people would dislike Durkan than like him.

O'Rourke could certainly make it. Depends a lot on how he does in Celbridge. I'm in the Lexlip area. From talking to some people around here there doesn't seem to be too much love for him.

BaronVon · 21-01-2020 4:20pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

Ivan Yeates reckoned that Frank O'Rourke would stay in and Lawless would lose his seat ; he also thought that more people would dislike Durkan than like him.

Lawless strikes me as a much more able politician than O'Rourke, but maybe that's just me.....

Durkan would be more riding on the FG ticket than as him as a politician, imo. Although I presume he has a reasonably strong base in Maynooth.

marieholmfan · 21-01-2020 4:20pm

BaronVon wrote: »

Lawless strikes me as a much more able politician than O'Rourke, but maybe that's just me.....

Durkan would be more riding on the FG ticket than him as a politician, imo. Although I presume he has a reasonably strong base in Maynooth.

I don't agree with either of Yeates' claims.

From what I can tell they don't even like Frank O'Rourke in Ballygoran!

daheff · 21-01-2020 4:28pm

i'd say we'll see the same 4 elected again...but can see Frank and Durkan having a more difficult time of it this time out.

mloc123 · 21-01-2020 4:41pm

Celbridge will vote for Frank... despite all his detractors, he is active locally and is well known. None of the other candidates are..

Orion · 21-01-2020 5:02pm

BaronVon wrote: »

Lawless strikes me as a much more able politician than O'Rourke, but maybe that's just me.....

Durkan would be more riding on the FG ticket than as him as a politician, imo. Although I presume he has a reasonably strong base in Maynooth.

Tony is a nice guy tbh. If only he wasn't in FG he'd get a preference from.

Bernard's base is Maynooth and Kilcock but he has plenty of following around the county. He'll be second highest 1st Prefs after Catherine.

Orion · 21-01-2020 5:03pm

BaronVon wrote: »

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/dail/2018-03-21/57/

The Oireachtas website is a great resource for finding out how the incumbent TD's have represented us in the last 4 years!

https://www.kildarestreet.com/ is excellent too. You can search by TD, topic, committee etc. And set up alerts to get an email when a specific TD speaks or when a topic is mentioned.

BaronVon · 21-01-2020 5:04pm

2016's Results

Orion · 21-01-2020 5:06pm

daheff wrote: »

i'd say we'll see the same 4 elected again...but can see Frank and Durkan having a more difficult time of it this time out.

I really don't think so. I genuinely think Frank will get back in but if we had to have one FF I'd much rather it was James - he's honest, hardworking and a nice guy. Frank is old school Haughey type of grifter.

Orion · 21-01-2020 5:07pm

That picture didn't come out too well Baron. Here's the results in Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kildare_North_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2016_general_election

L1011 · 21-01-2020 5:08pm

In a similarly poor-for-FG election as the polling is suggesting (2002); but a 3 seater at the time, Durkan got in by about 100 votes. First and only time my father ever gave him any preference, and it was a 1 to try keep FF out!

BaronVon · 21-01-2020 6:05pm

Orion wrote: »

That picture didn't come out too well Baron. Here's the results in Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kildare_North_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2016_general_election

Cheers, tried to resize it

yaboya1 · 21-01-2020 6:54pm

Orion wrote: »

Interesting odds. Martin might be worth a punt

So there's 4 seats and paddy power are odds on for five candidates?
Plenty of value in that market:D

WishUWereHere · 21-01-2020 10:10pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

Why not Stagg. Believe me he was a great TD. He's done alot for people.
Of course you have your own reasons and you don't have to share them

I won't vote for Frank because of the mileage thing (Lawless takes the train to work and doesn't claim mileage ,though I believe he gets the whole cost of his leap card refunded, but as things to complain about politicians go that's not too much!) .

What way did they all vote on the abortion referendum?

Hi from your neighbour - Kildare South.

Hope you don’t mind me commenting?

Regarding Stagg? I voted Labour all my life until 2016, but after Gilmore & Burton’s love affair with coalition, I’ll never vote Labour again. But that’s just my perspective.

Anyone listen to Philip Boucher hayes’s Interviews in Naas tonight? His last topic was on climate change, and the shiner was totally lost, she didn’T know how much the emissions had to cut by 2030, & after being told (in fairness, none except the green knew), it is 4% - I actually didn’t’t know either. But later in the interview, she mentioned 40%..

And can I ask a question? What is the mileage thing re frank o’rourke?

marieholmfan · 21-01-2020 10:12pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Hi from your neighbour - Kildare South.

Hope you don’t mind me commenting?

Regarding Stagg? I voted Labour all my life until 2016, but after Gilmore & Burton’s love affair with coalition, I’ll never vote Labour again. But that’s just my perspective.

Anyone listen to Philip Boucher hayes’s Interviews in Naas tonight? His last topic was on climate change, and the shiner was totally lost, she didn’T know how much the emissions had to cut by 2030, & after being told (in fairness, none except the green knew), it is 4% - I actually didn’t’t know either. But later in the interview, she mentioned 40%..

And can I ask a question? What is the mileage thing re frank o’rourke?

He lives in Ballygoran in Celbridge but claims to drive into Dublin in some weird way that bumps up his mileage into the next band .

It's something like that.

Lawless the other eff effer takes the train from Sallins. I bet Vincent Martin will too.

Seth Brundle · 21-01-2020 10:16pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Anyone listen to Philip Boucher hayes’s Interviews in Naas tonight? His last topic was on climate change, and the shiner was totally lost, she didn’T know how much the emissions had to cut by 2030, & after being told (in fairness, none except the green knew), it is 4% - I actually didn’t’t know either. But later in the interview, she mentioned 40%..

Its 40%...

At least 40% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels)
At least 32% share for renewable energy.
At least 32.5% improvement in energy efficiency.

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en
...and...
https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/climate-action/topics/eu-and-international-climate-action/2030-eu-targets/Pages/default.aspx

WishUWereHere wrote: »

And can I ask a question? What is the mileage thing re frank o’rourke?

My understanding is that he drives into Dublin and claims the considerable TD mileage allowance whereas his party and constituency colleague (Lawless) gets the train and only claims the Leap card costs.

BaronVon · 21-01-2020 10:19pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Anyone listen to Philip Boucher hayes’s Interviews in Naas tonight? His last topic was on climate change, and the shiner was totally lost, she didn’T know how much the emissions had to cut by 2030, & after being told (in fairness, none except the green knew), it is 4% - I actually didn’t’t know either. But later in the interview, she mentioned 40%..

Yeah, none of them came out great out of it. Stagg sounds really old on the radio.....

GE2020: Kildare North

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