FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

George Sunsnow · 27-11-2017 12:26am

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

When us ukmo released

There’ll be one overnight available at breakfast time

I’m with pad on this,January 2007 being the ultimate tease model wise
There is reason to have some faith here though as if the NH current profile continues to keep trying like this,eventually the probability has to be higher than usual of something more interesting snow wise coming out of it

arctictree · 27-11-2017 12:00pm

Why the gloom? Some great FI charts on the GFS 06z

George Sunsnow · 27-11-2017 1:24pm

pad199207 wrote: »

The silence says it all really.

Although not a complete backtrack on the 0z I worry that it will be come the 12z’s

To be fair,all that’s happened in modeling is a shortwave is being fired west to east near Iceland and then apparently wants to go south after which the profile it broke through May continue to strengthen
It will be difficult for the next one to push through a more built block
That’s an ad break not the finishing credits

Stay positive

pistolpetes11 · 27-11-2017 4:33pm

MOD NOTE

Folks this is the FI charts thread , posting up the charts and discussion of them would be appreciated

I meant to move all the posts to another thread and deleted all the off topic ones by mistake , my bad

pistolpetes11 · 27-11-2017 5:43pm

Things starting to shape up nicely , over to you ECM for the Hat Trick

BLIZZARD7 · 27-11-2017 5:44pm

Very good UKMO run if it's cold and maybe snowy weather you want to see - almost identical to the GFS 12z at +144hrs and that goes on to show -8c upper temps dropping down from the north over the country... Can we have all three major models in agreement this evening?

UN144-21.GIF?27-17

pistolpetes11 · 27-11-2017 5:45pm

This is well out in FI , but hay thats what were here for :pac::pac::pac::pac:

Reckless Abandonment · 27-11-2017 5:50pm

Just for fun.

pad199207 · 27-11-2017 5:52pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Things starting to shape up nicely , over to you ECM for the Hat Trick

Ye mean over to the ECM for it to be the one to throw a spanner in the works this evening

pistolpetes11 · 27-11-2017 5:57pm

That will do Pig that will do ............

Easterly Beasterly · 27-11-2017 6:04pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

That will do Pig that will do ............

Hi.. What does the above chart show? is that E/SE winds?

pistolpetes11 · 27-11-2017 6:07pm

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Hi.. What does the above chart show? is that E/SE winds?

Sorry it just the dam lines and 850 temps , I should of posted up another chart to show , but it the guts of a channel low , a real battleground that could dump lots of white gold , I will grab another chart to better show what Im on about

EDIT
Blizzard has posted below

BLIZZARD7 · 27-11-2017 6:09pm

Nice snowstorm for the South/South east here, Let's get this to +24hrs...

BLIZZARD7 · 27-11-2017 7:30pm

Steady as she goes up to +120hrs on the ECM

BLIZZARD7 · 27-11-2017 7:44pm

Different evolution days 6 and 7- euro Heights our downfall. Hopefully not a new trend.

Last night the UKMO was the bad one, ECM this evening. Hopefully the GFS/UKMO has this one right now.

BLIZZARD7 · 27-11-2017 8:00pm

And yet we somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat by day 9, a recurring theme lately. Fantastic day 10 chart -

Liffey4A · 27-11-2017 8:03pm

Following the analysis of these charts with interest, thanks to everyone who posts and gives their opinions on them.

pauldry · 27-11-2017 9:57pm

In 9 days time it will be snowing... everyday but not on the day

Isnt that what FI is?

Snowbiee21 · 27-11-2017 11:24pm

Silence speaks for everything again ...

kod87 · 27-11-2017 11:37pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Silence speaks for everything again ...

Indeed, nothing interesting in the charts at the moment, people talking about all sorts of possibilities but it's all in FI so it has 0% credibility and as the charts approach a reliable timeframe there is nothing of note or interesting.

When all the good charts stay in FI territory and consistently don't make to a reliable timeframe then the signs are bad for a decent cold spell anytime soon.

Snowbiee21 · 27-11-2017 11:40pm

kod87 wrote: »

Indeed, nothing interesting in the charts at the moment, people talking about all sorts of possibilities but it's all in FI so it has 0% credibility and as the charts approach a reliable timeframe there is nothing of note or interesting.

Couldn’t agree more , people get too hyped for something which is way out , pointless !

Captain Snow · 27-11-2017 11:43pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Silence speaks for everything again ...

kod87 · 27-11-2017 11:43pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Couldn’t agree more , people get too hyped for something which is way out , pointless !

but it's still fun to imagine the 'what ifs' when looking at the eye candy nonsense that FI throws out

MJohnston · 27-11-2017 11:53pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Couldn’t agree more , people get too hyped for something which is way out , pointless !

The thread literally has "Fantasy Island" in the title, let people hype all they want in here.

rickdangerouss · 28-11-2017 12:23am

MJohnston wrote: »

The thread literally has "Fantasy Island" in the title, let people hype all they want in here.

ALL ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN!!!

tenor.gif?itemid=5050589

Harry Palmr · 28-11-2017 12:28am

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Silence speaks for everything again ...

Could be a mild wave in 7-8 days

JCX BXC · 28-11-2017 12:30am

MJohnston wrote: »

The thread literally has "Fantasy Island" in the title, let people hype all they want in here.

I think it's a case of Snowbiee can't help but reading, and has crushing disappointment when the charts don't come off

Snowbiee21 · 28-11-2017 12:46am

JCX BXC wrote: »

I think it's a case of Snowbiee can't help but reading, and has crushing disappointment when the charts don't come off

Nope

icesnowfrost · 28-11-2017 12:52am

-8 uppers on Wednesday Thursday and Friday. Relax peeps. It's fantastic chart reading and encouraging compared to the last few winters.
One or 2 small down grades is not the end of a scenario.

BLIZZARD7 · 28-11-2017 2:12am

kod87 wrote: »

Indeed, nothing interesting in the charts at the moment, people talking about all sorts of possibilities but it's all in FI so it has 0% credibility and as the charts approach a reliable timeframe there is nothing of note or interesting.

When all the good charts stay in FI territory and consistently don't make to a reliable timeframe then the signs are bad for a decent cold spell anytime soon.

To be honest if you don't find the charts interesting at the moment and of late (assuming you like cold weather) then I don't think you would ever find them interesting. A projected strat warming, Completely absent polar vortex, blocked off atlantic, already considerable northern blocking, a highly amplified NH pattern, very low AO and low NAO, favorable enso conditions, a sleeping sun - These are just some of the reasons the charts in FI might be worth taking note of more than usual.

I find Cold northerlys with -7/-8C upper temps interesting anyway and that's not in FI (tis short lived this time though)

You have to realise that the troposphere and stratosphere are interconnected - high pressure ridging deep into Greenland at this time of year can cause very favorable developments for us going forward. This is already happening - likewise, the potential minor warming over Canada should also have positive impacts down the line. Might do a more detailed post on this when I have time.

Of course this thread is still in Fantasy Island after all and that should be self explanatory in itself. Take everything after +120hrs with a pinch of salt - it is interesting to see how many good possibilities are on the table this year, much better than the usual endless mild wet muck I think.

These coming weeks and winter might end up being one to forget, the odds of that are lower than normal though.

Remember it's still Autumn, it's only just turned the 28th Of November - winter hasn't even started...

BLIZZARD7 · 28-11-2017 5:32am

GFS messy again this morning, UKMO much better at +120 and +144hrs. High looks like it's getting sucked into Greenland - no messy short waves on southern tip ala GFS.

UN144-21.GIF?28-05

hatrickpatrick · 28-11-2017 8:50am

Polar vortex fighting back with a vengeance on 0z ECM and GFS charts

ninebeanrows · 28-11-2017 9:05am

A very upsetting 00z EC for coldies.

km79 · 28-11-2017 9:12am

mickger844posts · 28-11-2017 9:39am

The inevitable downgrades this morning but did we expect anything else. I've learned over the years to believe nothing beyond 96hrs. Hopefully our chances will improve in the second half of December

Reckless Abandonment · 28-11-2017 9:47am

Very disappointing models alright. But the switched from good to bad was so quick there is always a chance they can flip back to good again.. then bad,then good, then bad, then ninja snow on Christmas day

Floki · 28-11-2017 10:21am

The models are still looking good for lack of rainfall.
Getting milder this weekend up till Wednesday or Thursday with associated rain but overall and after that more HP than LP.

Iceland might get a storm from this evolution.

Donegal Storm · 28-11-2017 11:00am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

To be honest if you don't find the charts interesting at the moment and of late (assuming you like cold weather) then I don't think you would ever find them interesting. A projected strat warming, Completely absent polar vortex, blocked off atlantic, already considerable northern blocking, a highly amplified NH pattern, very low AO and low NAO, favorable enso conditions, a sleeping sun - These are just some of the reasons the charts in FI might be worth taking note of more than usual.

I find Cold northerlys with -7/-8C upper temps interesting anyway and that's not in FI (tis short lived this time though)

You have to realise that the troposphere and stratosphere are interconnected - high pressure ridging deep into Greenland at this time of year can cause very favorable developments for us going forward. This is already happening - likewise, the potential minor warming over Canada should also have positive impacts down the line. Might do a more detailed post on this when I have time.

Of course this thread is still in Fantasy Island after all and that should be self explanatory in itself. Take everything after +120hrs with a pinch of salt - it is interesting to see how many good possibilities are on the table this year, much better than the usual endless mild wet muck I think.

These coming weeks and winter might end up being one to forget, the odds of that are lower than normal though.

Remember it's still Autumn, it's only just turned the 28th Of November - winter hasn't even started...

Only a small handful of runs all week actually showed anything interesting and it was always will into the future, most were just a repeat of last Thursday at best with high ground snow in the North. Slack northerlies this early in the season aren't going to do much

The outlook hasn't really changed that much anyway, it should still be mostly dry and settled which will do me for now, just a few degrees milder than was being forecast a couple of days ago

Donegal Storm · 28-11-2017 11:00am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

To be honest if you don't find the charts interesting at the moment and of late (assuming you like cold weather) then I don't think you would ever find them interesting. A projected strat warming, Completely absent polar vortex, blocked off atlantic, already considerable northern blocking, a highly amplified NH pattern, very low AO and low NAO, favorable enso conditions, a sleeping sun - These are just some of the reasons the charts in FI might be worth taking note of more than usual.

I find Cold northerlys with -7/-8C upper temps interesting anyway and that's not in FI (tis short lived this time though)

You have to realise that the troposphere and stratosphere are interconnected - high pressure ridging deep into Greenland at this time of year can cause very favorable developments for us going forward. This is already happening - likewise, the potential minor warming over Canada should also have positive impacts down the line. Might do a more detailed post on this when I have time.

Of course this thread is still in Fantasy Island after all and that should be self explanatory in itself. Take everything after +120hrs with a pinch of salt - it is interesting to see how many good possibilities are on the table this year, much better than the usual endless mild wet muck I think.

These coming weeks and winter might end up being one to forget, the odds of that are lower than normal though.

Remember it's still Autumn, it's only just turned the 28th Of November - winter hasn't even started...

Only a small handful of runs all week actually showed anything interesting and it was always will into the future, most were just a repeat of last Thursday at best with high ground snow in the North. Slack northerlies this early in the season aren't going to do much

The outlook hasn't really changed that much anyway, it should still be mostly dry and settled which will do me for now, just a few degrees milder than was being forecast a couple of days ago

pauldry · 28-11-2017 11:00am

Yeah the ol warm December on the cards once more

We must be at the bottom of the rollercoaster

Oh look theres another hill ahead!!!:)

pistolpetes11 · 28-11-2017 11:28am

pauldry wrote: »

Yeah the ol warm December on the cards once more

We must be at the bottom of the rollercoaster

Oh look theres another hill ahead!!!:)

MOD NOTE

As per yesterdays note , This thread is for posting up charts or discussion of posted charts , its supposed to be on more of a scientific level than the general chat threads

George Sunsnow · 28-11-2017 11:37am

You are requiring high pressure to tilt in a specific way ala a few times in nov dec 2010
Most ways that it can tilt feeds in Atlantic air
Ergo the search for the blue moon will be a long one
There are no scientists in this thread but WC and Iancar both study or have degrees in meteorology
(I remember them when posting here as school kids :O )

pistolpetes11 · 28-11-2017 11:39am

There will be run to run swings as we can see in the two charts posted below ,

The main points to take from this for the cold weather lovers

1 Don't get overly excited by each models run variations if they swing in your favour
2 Don't get too disheartened if they swing against you

The main points to take from this for mild weather lovers

1 Don't get overly excited by each models run variations if they swing in your favour
2 Don't get too disheartened if they swing against you

Some of us have been here for a long long time , there are many types who use this forum but everyones opinion is as valid as the next ! lets all enjoys the ups and downs no matter what type of weather you love

icesnowfrost · 28-11-2017 11:41am

Bit of an upgrade on the latest GFS run from the 5th OF DECEMBER.
The charts don't seem to want to let go of the cold scenarios it's very interesting at the moment.

pistolpetes11 · 28-11-2017 11:54am

George Sunsnow wrote: »

You are requiring high pressure to tilt in a specific way ala a few times in nov dec 2010
Most ways that it can tilt feeds in Atlantic air
Ergo the search for the blue moon will be a long one
There are no scientists in this thread but WC and Iancar both study or have degrees in meteorology
(I remember them when posting here as school kids :O )

And I know of one or two others who have a massive interest in Metrology , along with some folks from the Aviation industry who again have a massive in-depth knowledge

George Sunsnow · 28-11-2017 12:18pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

And I know of one or two others who have a massive interest in Metrology , along with some folks from the Aviation industry who again have a massive in-depth knowledge

The word is obsession Pistol not interest

Regardless in the realm of FI we can only talk about possible scenarios and pointers
However much as the gfs goes mad out in La la land the likes of the attached image from today’s 6Z gfs is exactly what would happen eventually if the current blocked theme keeps reloading

Edit Stupid iPhone
Will attach image later when I figure out why it won’t
Suffice to say late FI is a snow fest,a natural consequence of reload after reload regardless of model

icesnowfrost · 28-11-2017 12:42pm

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112806/gfs-1-192.png?6
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112806/gfs-1-384.png?6from the 6th to the 14th is looking very cold. And uppers are perfect. Plus we are officially in winter by then so hopefully a more sustainable cold air source will be about.

Rebelbrowser · 28-11-2017 5:45pm

Hello.....

gfs-1-222.png?12?12

BLIZZARD7 · 28-11-2017 6:12pm

GFS and UKMO both quite good at +144hrs, GFS a touch better over greenland but UKMO is better upstream. I would be a bit surprised if the 12z ECM is like this mornings Run, it's clear the models are struggling with this one and so I expect many more twists and turns. Blocking over Canada/Greenland has been a dominant theme of FI on the GFS for a while now- if we can get lower pressure over southern europe than the models are showing it would make it all a lot less complicated.

12z GFS run has a very snowy few days from about +192 to +264hrs.

George Sunsnow · 28-11-2017 6:14pm

According to Nick on net weather who’s obviously looked at The US met services tech discussion ,the overnight ECM is for the bin

“
NOAA have just called the ECM 00hrs run outlandish ! They have serious doubts over this mornings op run which is good news because it was dreadful from a cold perspective! “

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Comments

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST