Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2014 12:53am

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you reckon I would be ok driving from Naas to Galway on Friday night or should I leave it til Saturday ?

Check for updates but at this point, Friday evening to arrive before 0100h Saturday should be okay but so would later Saturday, assuming no closed roads from any fallen trees etc. Worst time to do that drive would be first thing Saturday morning (like 0500-0800) based on current guidance.

Goat2, interesting, but could you give a more specific location if you post observations during storm? Thanks.

goat2 · 31-01-2014 12:55am

west kerry

Steopo · 31-01-2014 12:57am

Have tried to compare all the factors as best I can to the two previous coastal damaging events on 3rd Jan & 6th Jan

High Tide Cork: Jan 3rd 4.1m, Jan 6th 3.84m, Feb 1st 4.21m
Wave Surf Height K4 Buoy Forecasts: Jan 6th 73ft, Feb 1st 67ft (Rossbeigh around 50ft on both Jan 6th & Feb 1st), Jan 3rd ? but was much lower from memory
Wave Period: Jan 3rd 17sec, Jan 6th 21sec, Feb 1st 19sec
Wave Energy: Jan 3rd ? (but there was not a huge swell), Jan 6th >100kj, Feb 1st >100kj
Wind Gusts Cork Airport: Jan 3rd 57kns, Jan 6th 52 knts, Feb 1st 60knts
Rainfall Cork (2 days) - Jan3rd 14mm, Jan 6th 27mm, Feb 1st 25mm (guess)
Direction of sea swell - there was not a major swell on 3rd, on the 6th the direction was slightly more from a southerly direction
Wind Area - area of wind & sea swell was enormous on 6th Jan and Feb 1st event is smaller but still significant

Above may not be fully accurate in terms of actual outcomes some of 3rd & 6th Jan stats are forecasts but it's best I could do on like for like basis (open to correction)

Looks to me like sea swell & wave energy not quite as high as 6th Jan but still huge, we're dealing with higher tides (6th Jan tides were over foot lower), possibly stronger winds & similar rain & obviously some sea defences damaged. I reckon we're dealing with a similar event but maybe slightly worse impacts to 6th Jan

dexter647 · 31-01-2014 1:16am

goat2 wrote: »

i live about five hundred meters from the sea, will like watching high tide as i am on elevated ground, but hate the thought of the wind,
that roar and the slates clapping, hard to open doors, could feel a suction, i guess i will not get much sleep again, the last storm scared me, think i will take up residence in downstairs back room this time, and hope for the best,

You will be fine so don't be worrying...It will no doubt be windy but not scary windy so just enjoy by the fire:)

Mr Cumulonimbus · 31-01-2014 1:37am

18Z Euro4. Track shifting south it seems.

Oscar Bravo · 31-01-2014 1:42am

No wind for NW in that run (rain approaching the west coast now)

Oscar Bravo · 31-01-2014 1:48am

And a quite Westport about a week ago

maquiladora · 31-01-2014 1:53am

18Z WRF shows winds touching storm force on the exposed southwest coasts at the peak of the storm, with gales pushing into those Atlantic facing counties. Elsewhere gales/strong gales are restricted to south/southeast coast areas.

Still time for track and intensity changes but at the moment I'm not seeing anything stronger than what we've already seen this winter for these areas.

Coastal flooding has the potential to be more severe than previous events if the timing lines up just right with the high tide, though it could also turn out less severe. Better to be prepared for the worst when it comes to flooding anyway. I'm guessing the level 3 title change is due to the flooding risk?

nmmuk-3-43-0.png?31-00

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2014 3:17am

Yes, I asked moderators to consider a level change because my editing time for the original post expired.

The thread title now indicates that a map at post 87 shows what level of risk is anticipated in different regions.

The level 3 would be justified more by the storm surge than maximum wind gusts which probably still fall into level 2, but I'm sure that readers will understand that we have to choose a level that will alert those most in danger and in this case it would not just be a handful of isolated people in remote areas but potentially quite a significant number of people in places like Cork, Limerick and Galway.

We can always back off to level 2 again if the storm weakens on the 00z runs.

fr wishy washy · 31-01-2014 8:04am

Wind starting to rev up here.

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2014 8:13am

For the South the gradient is tighter than what's gone before. Southwest munster looks like been badly hit by this imo

ch750536 · 31-01-2014 8:54am

goat2 wrote: »

i live about five hundred meters from the sea, will like watching high tide as i am on elevated ground, but hate the thought of the wind,
that roar and the slates clapping, hard to open doors, could feel a suction, i guess i will not get much sleep again, the last storm scared me, think i will take up residence in downstairs back room this time, and hope for the best,

Are you a labrador? Mine said the same thing to me last week.:D

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2014 9:29am

Sky is just vomiting rain here at the moment. Not much wind but local flooding inevitable as this rain band crosses over the country today.

Steopo · 31-01-2014 9:39am

You can't even see Ireland on map with amount of rain at moment :eek:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Coles · 31-01-2014 9:44am

It might be possible to get an idea of the tidal and storm surge from the OPW live tidal sensors. Shame there aren't more of them.

OPW Tidal Sensors

maquiladora · 31-01-2014 10:08am

0Z EURO4 for 9am tomorrow showing gales reaching inland in parts of Clare/Kerry/Cork, reaching storm force on the coast.

0Z WRF looks less severe than the EURO4 with maximum gusts of up to 110 km/h. Though this may be about 10 km/h too low I think.

nmmuk-11-33-0.png?31-06

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2014 10:22am

Its really hitting the southwest hard.
Cork and Kerry will take a battering from this and coastal regions will be v dangerous

Zoney · 31-01-2014 10:24am

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z EURO4 for 9am tomorrow showing gales reaching inland in parts of Clare/Kerry/Cork, reaching storm force on the coast.

Looks like wind is going to sweep right up the estuary to Limerick city too!

red_bairn · 31-01-2014 10:27am

The Irish sea is beginning to get angry.

I am hiding on the DART peering out window.

Birroc · 31-01-2014 10:48am

Drove through Salthill this morning. There is an air of menace around the place. Or it could just be the dark wet morning and my imagination.

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 10:53am

Winds will abate mostly after this front moves through before picking up again from the west from 6am.

Looking from an IMBY perspective, i expect highest winds in Dublin around 3pm Saturday, with a gust to 60/65kt possible here as system exits east.

RoisinD · 31-01-2014 11:22am

Wind calmed down here now, just a gentle breeze. Rain has cleared at last and sky brightening.

NWClare

chipsdave · 31-01-2014 11:53am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Its really hitting the southwest hard.
Cork and Kerry will take a battering from this and coastal regions will be v dangerous

Absolutely pumped down rain here towards daybreak and on the school run , water pouring from the fields has held in a lot of places , looking West ,South West sky has brightened considerably and has a showery look , waiting now on tmrws events with VERY high tides at 6am and 6pm :eek:

metroburgers · 31-01-2014 12:04pm

Birroc wrote: »

Drove through Salthill this morning. There is an air of menace around the place. Or it could just be the dark wet morning and my imagination.

Larbre34 · 31-01-2014 12:35pm

Doesnt seem to be much in the way of tidal flooding in Dublin today, judging by the traffic cameras etc, although tomorrow is the greater risk with Low pressure progged at about 965

Storm 10 · 31-01-2014 12:36pm

Anyone one the time it will hit the West Coast

Pigeon Reaper · 31-01-2014 12:39pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Doesnt seem to be much in the way of tidal flooding in Dublin today, judging by the traffic cameras etc, although tomorrow is the greater risk with Low pressure progged at about 965

The astronomical tide height tomorrow is supposed to be lower so there is a chance of a problem but it's reduced by around 20CM

Cogsy88 · 31-01-2014 12:43pm

Tide today in dublin is 4.4 meters, but it's 4.5 tomorrow with a swell on top.

maquiladora · 31-01-2014 12:44pm

The depression is getting close to its peak intensity out in the Atlantic at the moment : http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

06Z GFS showing maximum gusts of 110 km/h for the far southwest and gusts of up to around 100 km/h mostly restricted to southwest/south coastal areas with 80-90 km/h gusts inland possible over the southern half of the country.

So stormy for places but certainly not exceptional in terms of wind speeds.

27-289UK.GIF?31-6

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 12:51pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The depression is getting close to its peak intensity out in the Atlantic at the moment : http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

06Z GFS showing maximum gusts of 110 km/h for the far southwest and gusts of up to around 100 km/h mostly restricted to southwest/south coastal areas with 80-90 km/h gusts inland possible over the southern half of the country.

So stormy for places but certainly not exceptional in terms of wind speeds.

I am willing to guarantee we will see gusts above 110 km.hr

:pac:

- I continue to believe this storm will have greater windspeeds recorded than those during the Stephen's Day Storm.

dacogawa · 31-01-2014 12:51pm

Just down at Sandymount beach (high tide now), a tiny it of over-topping on the sea walls but nothing compared to the 3rd, not as much swell as the 3rd either, there's more force in the wind though. I'm sure tomorrows high tide will be a different story especially if that wind picks up a bit...

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2014 12:54pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I am willing to guarantee we will see gusts above 110 km.hr :pac:

- I continue to believe this storm will have greater windspeeds recorded than those during the Stephen's Day Storm.

agree and for the south it looks worse than anything seen all winter. I expect cork airport to see over 130km

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 1:00pm

dacogawa wrote: »

Just down at Sandymount beach (high tide now), a tiny it of over-topping on the sea walls but nothing compared to the 3rd, not as much swell as the 3rd either, there's more force in the wind though. I'm sure tomorrows high tide will be a different story especially if that wind picks up a bit...

The surge on the east coast tomorrow will increase seas by approx 6-9 feet tomorrow compared to today.

Today 9am

Tomorrow 3pm

Spring Onion · 31-01-2014 1:15pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The depression is getting close to its peak intensity out in the Atlantic at the moment : http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

06Z GFS showing maximum gusts of 110 km/h for the far southwest and gusts of up to around 100 km/h mostly restricted to southwest/south coastal areas with 80-90 km/h gusts inland possible over the southern half of the country.

So stormy for places but certainly not exceptional in terms of wind speeds.

Those arrows suggest that Galway Bay will get more Westerly than South-Westerly winds which might spare Spiddal/Salthill somewhat?

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2014 1:34pm

Hirlam 12 hr windspeed outlook on Dec 27 last:

and current outlook for tomorrow's storm:

Despite subtle differences and orientation, pretty similar in both terms of coastal wind speeds and areas affected, although the current system certainly has a more expansive area of +24 m/s speeds wrapping around the southern and western flank of that low. Interesting that the northwest seems to escape the worst of it again, which seems to be the form horse this winter so far, despite the varying paths of each respective system

Steopo · 31-01-2014 1:48pm

The high tides in Dublin tomorrow are a bit higher than today but as Weathercheck's post shows the big difference is the swell pushing water up the Irish Sea & the much stronger winds which will make things far choppier. Would expect some flooding, wave over-topping and probably more coastal damages to the beaches - swell on Jan 6th did significant damage to the sand dunes here in Donabate

The wind direction does mean the risks for the East coast are less but nevertheless one to watch closely

Another scourge of these storms is the amount of plastic bottles washed up on the beaches!!

sparrowcar · 31-01-2014 1:58pm

Steopo wrote: »

- swell on Jan 6th did significant damage to the sand dunes here in Donabate

I walk Donabate 3-4 times a week and I wouldn't say it did "significant" damage at all. At best it was minor damage and that was mainly to the gates of the houses at the start of the beach.

IMO Significant damage is what happened all along the south and west coasts not Donabate.

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2014 1:58pm

Spring Onion wrote: »

Those arrows suggest that Galway Bay will get more Westerly than South-Westerly winds which might spare Spiddal/Salthill somewhat?

The strongest winds along the bay coast (at least according to DMI and subject to change) may still be from a SSW to SW direction very early tomorrow so could cause a few issues until the veer more towards the west, although remaining strong. I don't know the first thing about tide times but maybe someone else could help you out on that.

fits · 31-01-2014 2:11pm

Im sort of dubious about this being a level three. Think its wiser to stick with met eireann and meteoalarm levels.

Hooter23 · 31-01-2014 2:13pm

A yellow warning has been issued by the UK Met Office for snow in N.ireland....

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 2:22pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

A yellow warning has been issued by the UK Met Office for snow in N.ireland....

Probably due to this for midnight

sunbabe08 · 31-01-2014 2:31pm

um, are we actually getting some snow tomorrow?

red_bairn · 31-01-2014 2:40pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

um, are we actually getting some snow tomorrow?

Cork. Snow. Ha!

Mr Cumulonimbus · 31-01-2014 2:44pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The depression is getting close to its peak intensity out in the Atlantic at the moment : http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

sunbabe08 · 31-01-2014 2:48pm

red_bairn wrote: »

Cork. Snow. Ha!

i'm on constant wishing mode

31-01-2014 2:50pm

fits wrote: »

Im sort of dubious about this being a level three. Think its wiser to stick with met eireann and meteoalarm levels.

Bullsh*t. Wisdom is being prepared for the worst, even if you don't expect it. Better off ready for worse than you get than battered by worse than you expect.

FWIW, I'm aware of voluntary rescue orgs in Galway & Dublin that've put flood alerts to their members. That should tell you what to prepare for.

charlie_says · 31-01-2014 2:57pm

Tiny bit of rain here in Galway city at 2pm. Not very windy at all.

We just finished cleaning up one of our apartments near the Corrib which flooded the place (only one in building) two weeks ago.

All to be done again no doubt . I can't even go there to help straight away sand bag as I have a bloody professional exam this afternoon.

Must sacrifice more to storm gods in future methinks.

Tabnabs · 31-01-2014 3:37pm

No flooding in Dublin today, thankfully a decent margin of safety at HW. We'll see about tomorrow.

Red Nissan · 31-01-2014 3:42pm

The Sun is shinning, wind calmed down a lot and I see 15mm of precipitation last 24hrs.

burren · 31-01-2014 3:58pm

fits wrote: »

Im sort of dubious about this being a level three. Think its wiser to stick with met eireann and meteoalarm levels.

Well with meteoalarm you could have separate warnings for distinct events. So for W and SW Ireland you could have a red alert for coastal flooding and an orange alert for wind. Not sure why met eireann does not use this option (I suppose the input for meteoalarm comes from met eireann)?!

Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

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