Very cold, Snow

darkman2 · 02-01-2011 5:49am #1

It will turn very cold from tonight (2nd Jan) but it will be mostly dry until midweek. After Wednesday there is a high risk of snow countrywide. Keep with this thread for specifics. It is not possible to pinpoint exact locations yet but the west and north are most at risk initially and then the rest of the country in particular the south. Temperatures at night will be below freezing between now and then. Hard frost and ice should return tonight.

bobsoice23 · 02-01-2011 6:16am

Oh joy.

StereoLove · 02-01-2011 6:26am

bobsoice23 wrote: »

Oh joy.

Oh joy indeed

wurzlitzer · 02-01-2011 6:43am

Darkman2
Did you copy and paste that from the rte website?

Well we will all have to put up with it I suppose

I think now what ever the weather temperature wise we all have become more resistant to cold temperatures after the arctic ones we experienced before xmas

We should starting having vodka for brekkie mix it in the aul porridge

darkman2 · 02-01-2011 6:56am

wurzlitzer wrote: »

Darkman2
Did you copy and paste that from the rte website?

lol! Sometimes I think they copy and paste from me.

The forcast is as in the OP so. There is nothing I can do about it. Some people don't like snow and cold. Is it not better though to have weather to talk about? Yeah no water and no walking but it is nice to see all the same.

Esel · 02-01-2011 7:01am

I refuse to believe until MTC confirms...

M.T. Cranium · 02-01-2011 8:10am

At the moment, I am more convinced of the cold than the snow potential for eastern and southern counties, but the models are not really giving us very reliable projections of the details once the cold air gets established mid-week, so I think it's prudent to at least warn people of the potential for a return to snow -- which seems quite likely in Connacht and parts of Ulster by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

So far this outbreak looks just a little less severe than the first two were, but it's severe enough to be concerned about wintry weather returning after what has turned out to be a week-long break from the severe conditions.

darkman2 · 02-01-2011 8:20am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

At the moment, I am more convinced of the cold than the snow potential for eastern and southern counties,

+1 but what I am looking at for Southern parts is the potential for fronts to come from the South and perhaps effect Southern counties. I have little doubt there will be snow in the North and West. There will be little further East in the absence of frontal activity from the South. But that is just how I am reading the models. Perhaps I am completely wrong. I don't think so. Thanks MT.

02-01-2011 10:56am

FYI

There is no countrytracks on BBC 1 today but the weather for the week ahead that usually accompanies it is after the 1110 am news on bbc1 this morning so about 1117am or thereabouts.

Danno · 02-01-2011 12:55pm

It seems the runner front over Celtic Sea poses a threat to the south on Thursday. Any wobble north and it will be dumping down alot of rain/sleet/snow over the southern third of Ireland. The South of the UK stays mild for the most of the run and might see it turn to snow on it's back edge as it pulls away into the continent.

steveLFC24 · 02-01-2011 1:03pm

I'm sick of this mild boring weather. Its kinda depressing

mike65 · 02-01-2011 1:06pm

:mad: NOT HAPPENING :mad:

sunbabe08 · 02-01-2011 1:08pm

steveLFC24 wrote: »

I'm sick of this mild boring weather. Its kinda depressing

i agree. bring back the cold

02-01-2011 1:11pm

Dan Corbett did that bbc weather for the week ahead and he doesn't agree and certainly wouldn't be using the word severe to describe whats coming this week.
The artic door he said was only being slightly opened.
He showed little or no precip for the week from showers in NI except for a mini cold front coming down which he said would be rain sleet and mainly hill snow.
So very marginal in the UKMO view.
The system to the south is one to watch.
It was shown as all rain

I tend to agree [and who am I to diss the UKMO's opinion] because it is battling with a very modified polar maratime mix and is taking a very slow long meandering sea journey over the north atlantic [hence the fact that it has no ummph [pronounced ump fah-a colloquial for power] to fight the mild air in the southern feature, so snow on low ground for the very few flukey areas but mostly very wet stuff above 600ft in my opinion if at all.
What the vast majority of people may see is cold rain.

Hardly severe.

nacho libre · 02-01-2011 1:58pm

It was obvious from the start that it was going to be tame compared to what we had going by the models. Also the ukmo and our own M.T. prior to the last cold spell were quick to give out warnings, they didn't this time which indicates to me they didn't think it would be as severe.

i think what we'll see during the course of this week is a standard winter cold spell comprising of wet snow in inland areas of the north and west, with rain and sleet for coastal regions.

Pangea · 02-01-2011 2:04pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Dan Corbett did that bbc weather for the week ahead and he doesn't agree and certainly wouldn't be using the word severe to describe whats coming this week.
The artic door he said was only being slightly opened.
He showed little or no precip for the week from showers in NI except for a mini cold front coming down which he said would be rain sleet and mainly hill snow.
So very marginal in the UKMO view.
The system to the south is one to watch.
It was shown as all rain

I tend to agree [and who am I to diss the UKMO's opinion] because it is battling with a very modified polar maratime mix and is taking a very slow long meandering sea journey over the north atlantic [hence the fact that it has no ummph [pronounced ump fah-a colloquial for power] to fight the mild air in the southern feature, so snow on low ground for the very few flukey areas but mostly very wet stuff above 600ft in my opinion if at all.
What the vast majority of people may see is cold rain.

Hardly severe.

Ah yes Dan Corbett , he presents his forecasts in a rather broadway fashion but hes good all the same , the only snow he was showing was for scotland and for far south of England. Going by the MET uk long term outlook and MTs it looks like it get warmer after the upcoming cold weather and then colder again in the latter part of the month.

maquiladora · 02-01-2011 2:31pm

Evelyn on the farming forecast :

"outbreaks of sleety snow" on Tuesday, polar notherlies will dominate this week, next week the Atlantic may break through but very uncertain, sleet/hail showers on Wednesday but fine weather in most places.

Redsunset · 02-01-2011 2:40pm

Yeah apart from the North an areas west its mainly all hill snow and sleety rain elsewhere.Tis not a patch on the last spell,then again that was a rare one so can't complain too much but tis like a drug now and i'd like to be buried in sneachta.(Snow haters sharping their claws now i expect):D

Min · 02-01-2011 2:50pm

That was a good forecast on BBC and RTE. Cold but nothing to write home about as Gerald Fleming might say.

02-01-2011 2:57pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Evelyn on the farming forecast :

"outbreaks of sleety snow" on Tuesday, polar notherlies will dominate this week, next week the Atlantic may break through but very uncertain, sleet/hail showers on Wednesday but fine weather in most places.

Ah now she said sleety snow on hills.
Big difference

She was sketchy later in the week but did say hail sleet and snow showers in the west and north west.

Anyone that missed her forecast can see it repeated ad nauseum on the RTE news now channel up untill 6pm if you have RTE digital terrestrial saorview through your aerial or on that channel on the web.
They replay the 120pm news followed by the farming forecast on a loop up untill then.

It's becoming clear [as mud] to me that what we are facing into is a very slow flow from the north.
If thats allowed to continue into week 2,thats after next weekend,we will eventually have something noteable wintry weather wise.
But nothing too exciting methinks this week.

fr wishy washy · 02-01-2011 2:57pm

I have noticed the robin and a lot of other small birds returning to the feeding tray in the garden over the last two days. This is supposed to be a sign of snow coming. Or is it?

nacho libre · 02-01-2011 2:58pm

one thing i will be disappointed about is if at some stage during this month we don't get a near nationwide snow event with the sst being that bit cooler due to the exceptional cold spells just gone. With this in mind there seems to be enough cold air out in the Eastern part of the atlantic to eventually force Atlantic systems to take a more favourable track for this happen. so the word zonality doesn't have to be all bad, it depends on the angle of attack and what potentially milder air has to encounter as it seeks to establish itself over us.

nacho libre · 02-01-2011 3:03pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah now she said sleety snow on hills.
Big difference
She was sketchy later in the week but did say hail sleet and snow showers in the west and north west.

.

i don't expect we'll be seeing a foot of snow in these parts next week, but just to see snow fall, with perhaps some accumulating by night if we're lucky, is preferable to very mild south westerlies!

maquiladora · 02-01-2011 3:06pm

Look at the AO forecast for after mid-month. Could be very interesting later in Jan / early Feb?

ao.sprd2.gif

fizzycyst · 02-01-2011 3:08pm

It seems to me that possibility of good snow this week is slim, but then again, doesn't the best snow come when we least expect it :pac:

maquiladora · 02-01-2011 3:09pm

fr wishy washy wrote: »

I have noticed the robin and a lot of other small birds returning to the feeding tray in the garden over the last two days. This is supposed to be a sign of snow coming. Or is it?

Probably just a reaction to it being a bit colder for the past 2 days.

fr wishy washy · 02-01-2011 3:11pm

Maybe your right. I should have mentioned it is Blessington and when the snow comes unexpectedly we usually get it first.

pauldry · 02-01-2011 4:17pm

Although it does not look like we are going to see a major snow event this week, wintry showers of hail or sleet will make the roads icy once more and driving as driving can only be described........"hazardous"

thetonynator · 02-01-2011 4:37pm

fr wishy washy wrote: »

I have noticed the robin and a lot of other small birds returning to the feeding tray in the garden over the last two days. This is supposed to be a sign of snow coming. Or is it?

If we're talking about the signs in nature, watching some sheep for the last few days, they are behaving strangely and spending a lot of time (more than usual) in hedges, but i'd have to ask the postman how to interpret that one. Personally i think the signs in nature cant be great and i'd go with the GFS control run in FI first, but i wont dismiss it completely . .:P

maquiladora · 02-01-2011 4:47pm

12Z GME, probably overdoing it, but has -14 uppers reaching Scotland at 132 hours.

gme-1-132.png?12

xXxkorixXx · 02-01-2011 5:04pm

Roll on!!!

I love the cold and all that comes with it

i cant wait now.

Was out earlier and it was freezing

patneve2 · 02-01-2011 5:30pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Look at the AO forecast for after mid-month. Could be very interesting later in Jan / early Feb?

I like. I like very much:) Even though the Arctic Oscillation doesn't have a total say in our cold spells, it is interesting to see that the previous 'bigger dips' in the index have coincided with our two big cold spells. The polar vortex is still highly unstable, it just remains to be seen where its load will fall.

JJJJNR · 02-01-2011 5:33pm

Just started snowing in Rathdrum, very light but still its snowing.

Kippure · 02-01-2011 5:53pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

Just started snowing in Rathdrum, very light but still its snowing.

Its been snowing lightly all day around wicklow.The average tempeture has been between 0c and minus 1. Theres a dusty accross the tops of some of the hills. Especailly towards killbride.

MUSEIST · 02-01-2011 5:57pm

mike65 wrote: »

:mad: NOT HAPPENING :mad:

:DOh, its happening, oh yes:D:D

jprboy · 02-01-2011 6:03pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Dan Corbett did that bbc weather for the week ahead and he doesn't agree and certainly wouldn't be using the word severe to describe whats coming this week.
The artic door he said was only being slightly opened.

But it will open just enough for some parts of the country.

Corkonians: Where did ye get that snow, boiy?

Others: Not sure, think it fell off the back of a lorry :pac:

darkman2 · 02-01-2011 6:42pm

The 12pm GFS run is a good upgrade if you want snow with the cold weather lasting for the forseeable future. Icy and very cold at night. The UKMO also is very cold aswell with increasingly showers of snow or longer periods of sleet and snow. The outlook is turning colder the closer to midweek we get.

BEASTERLY · 02-01-2011 7:24pm

Just to cheer us all up here is some quotes from Mid November 2010 in the thread dealing with the imminent cold:

Late November is a bit too early for temperatures to be close to freezing by day. it'll be more like 3 - 8 degrees.

will propably be a non event for most/all of us, nothing more than a few frosts and the odd rain/sleet shower. Still too early in the season for something decent i think.

They are interesting but...a word of caution for anyone heading out to build sleighs this morning. There is a strong possibility that the cold spell may be broken by the Friday of next week as the atlantic reestablishes more average temps and brings rain over the country from the SW

Very little snowy potential for us until about 180 hours but then the breakdown comes a couple of days later.

most people will not see the white stuff, except those living a few hundred metres asl.

This whole hysteria building up about snow next week (last week of November!) is bound to lead to disappointment.

We all know how that one turned out, looking back at the charts forecasted upper air temps this time are actually colder than they were in late november, worth bearing in mind. Although with the long sea track DPs will be alot higher but i cant see why area more than 10k inland would see mostly rain or sleet.

02-01-2011 8:07pm

Ah the upper airs aren't colder than late november are they? Not colder than the uppers we got at the start of the nov/early dec spell ?
Remember once you have near zero cold surface air in place and near zero surface air advecting in from your wind direction source,thats when you can allow the uppers to be warmer.
I'm pretty sure it was snowing all day here with uppers warmer than -5c towards the latter end of the early december spell.
Thats because you had those two factors happening.The latter being freezing surface air advection seeping in from Britain.

Usually you do not have the freezing surface air in a northwesterly or a westerly[of northerly origin] as it's a marine layer exclusively at the surface level as opposed to having had land modification in the case of an easterly or north easterly and in late november/early december,it was an icy modification!
Hence thats why you need a minimum -8 850 air and preferably -10 air from the west or north west to diminish the affect of the sst's and that marine layer advection.

Meh! I'm taking a simple view of the next week.Everything is flowing from the north.
The only problem is it's a very gradual and slow process meaning it's getting hellish modification on that sea track.
But step by step,this could get there properly eventually.

The models can't handle it thats for sure.
New and different solutions from all of them this evening again.
Lots of forecast intuition needed rather than heres the latest chart lads for 4 days time and it says snow...

bullylover · 02-01-2011 8:12pm

Talking about signs from the animals,
Alot of our horses have being an edge since yesterday, samething happened jst before the first snow (november).
Something must be coming, its not normal for them to act like they are...

Musicman2000 · 02-01-2011 8:22pm

Looking at the countryfile forecast on BBC 1, he had a high over the UK and Ireland next weekend, not a mention of snow apart from the north of Scotland

maquiladora · 02-01-2011 8:36pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Although with the long sea track DPs will be alot higher but i cant see why area more than 10k inland would see mostly rain or sleet.

Well couple of charts from the 12Z GFS....

111 hours

159 hours...

Nothing high about those. Of course could/will change a lot either way by then.

02-01-2011 8:50pm

bullylover wrote: »

Talking about signs from the animals,
Alot of our horses have being an edge since yesterday, samething happened jst before the first snow (november).
Something must be coming, its not normal for them to act like they are...

did you hear about all the Birds falling from sky in arkansas? also hundreds of thousands of dead fish washing up. Same In South AMerica apparently. All over the past few days. Looks like scenes from the Birds, the Hitchcock classic.
Saying maybe lighning or hail ..

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/01/02/dead-birds-fall-ark-sky/

If I see birds dropping from sky, I'l pass out.

bullylover · 02-01-2011 9:03pm

We also have 2 buzzards and they have come in close to the yard and their staying around the yard, never seen them do this before... very strange indeed.
I wud defo pass out if they fall from the sky:S

ltdslipdiff · 02-01-2011 9:22pm

Jake1 wrote: »

did you hear about all the Birds falling from sky in arkansas? also hundreds of thousands of dead fish washing up. Same In South AMerica apparently. All over the past few days. Looks like scenes from the Birds, the Hitchcock classic.
Saying maybe lighning or hail ..

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/01/02/dead-birds-fall-ark-sky/

If I see birds dropping from sky, I'l pass out.

Looks like classic UFO activity to me !!!:)

fr wishy washy · 02-01-2011 9:27pm

Maybe tomorrow will be more telling. Be interesting to see if Blessington gets a dusting tonight

rc28 · 02-01-2011 9:36pm

bullylover wrote: »

We also have 2 buzzards and they have come in close to the yard and their staying around the yard, never seen them do this before... very strange indeed.
I wud defo pass out if they fall from the sky:S

I was just remarking today how many birds were in our garden and coming so close to the house to get food! We have a few bird feeders in back yard and they were swarming around them too.

Weird all the animals are acting odd - in the wood near us there were so many squirrels scurrying around the place which I never see.

fr wishy washy · 02-01-2011 9:42pm

It was exactly the same in our garden today it was like they were queing up to get to the food so much so that I refilled the tray and left the security light on to encourage them to feed for as long as they could. Strange

Pangea · 02-01-2011 10:48pm

rc28 wrote: »

there were so many squirrels scurrying around the place which I never see.

I never knew there was squirrels in Ireland till a few years ago, still never seen one in Ireland though ,Im guessing they are plentiful down south?

darkman2 · 02-01-2011 10:52pm

Plenty of (grey) squirrels in my location. All cute and fuzzy from a distance. Get up close and it's more like a rat with fir.;)

fizzycyst · 02-01-2011 11:04pm

the american grey squirrels are also responsible for the fact that our own native red squirrel numbers are in serious decline, I've seen plenty of grey squirrels but never a red

Very cold, Snow

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