TRADER'S CORNER

arrowloopboy · 28-06-2015 10:46pm

the sh1t is really starting to hit the fan ,i'm short eur/usd ,short ftse ,should be short dax but im not.
Sundat ftse down 3 precent ,sunday dax down 4 ,how is all this going to play out .....

Tugboats · 29-06-2015 8:01am

arrowloopboy wrote: »

the sh1t is really starting to hit the fan ,i'm short eur/usd ,short ftse ,should be short dax but im not.
Sundat ftse down 3 precent ,sunday dax down 4 ,how is all this going to play out .....

ftse and eur/usd up from sunday night open. I wouldnt be surprised to see a sea of green by this evening/tomorrow

Fizman · 29-06-2015 10:56am

Tugboats wrote: »

ftse and eur/usd up from sunday night open. I wouldnt be surprised to see a sea of green by this evening/tomorrow

Regardless of outcomes, I personally see very little major upside for the euro. I'll only have sell positions I reckon for the week that's in it. 10820 a target.

Staying away from DAX as it's untradeable right now.

Tugboats · 30-06-2015 10:03am

Fizman wrote: »

Regardless of outcomes, I personally see very little major upside for the euro. I'll only have sell positions I reckon for the week that's in it. 10820 a target.

Staying away from DAX as it's untradeable right now.

The euro is a screaming buy imo. Just look at this message board, others and social media. Ordinary people are worrying about it collapsing and looking to move money here, there and everywhere. A quick glance on Twitter over the weekend showed that "traders" were predicting chaos and boasting about pulling all nighters on sunday to make their fortune. When are people like this ever right? Usually never

arrowloopboy · 30-06-2015 8:14pm

The FTSE is still nicely falling assunder,but,its a very reliable trade nearly every summer anyways,greek mess aside.

arrowloopboy · 30-06-2015 8:17pm

Tugboats wrote: »

The euro is a screaming buy imo. Just look at this message board, others and social media. Ordinary people are worrying about it collapsing and looking to move money here, there and everywhere. A quick glance on Twitter over the weekend showed that "traders" were predicting chaos and boasting about pulling all nighters on sunday to make their fortune. When are people like this ever right? Usually never

Your probably right,alot of this sh1t is already built into the price.
Where's your money ?

Tugboats · 30-06-2015 8:25pm

Had a EUR/USD long today only a day trade. Looking at trying to get into a longer term EUR/Aud. The only position I have open for the medium term( I hope) is the Direxion sp500 bear x3 etf

arrowloopboy · 01-07-2015 9:42am

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Closed 3/5s yesterday morning at 6635.00 (it reversed by 100 points at 6624.00) this was luck not skill:P,for a tidy 365 points, :pac:EEE.
Waiting for another decent rally ,to mill into it again !

Closed the other 2/5s this morning at 6540.00,i hope to sell it again if it gets up around 6700/6750.00 .

dasdog · 01-07-2015 10:41am

Big moves across the board in the last 10/15 mins on news Tsipras is going to at long last concede but nothing official yet.

Tugboats · 01-07-2015 4:25pm

With the long weekend in the States a good day trade if it sets up tomorrow could be to short any NFP spikes. Cant see many wanting to hold long positions going into the weekend

For ever odd · 01-07-2015 7:41pm

Tugboats wrote: »

With the long weekend in the States a good day trade if it sets up tomorrow could be to short any NFP spikes. Cant see many wanting to hold long positions going into the weekend

Traded this last year, ecb meeting was on the same day. Friday was quiet in Europe and a red day if memory serves.

Tugboats · 02-07-2015 4:28pm

Tugboats wrote: »

With the long weekend in the States a good day trade if it sets up tomorrow could be to short any NFP spikes. Cant see many wanting to hold long positions going into the weekend

If only everyday was this easy:)

stove_salesman · 02-07-2015 4:46pm

arrowloopboy wrote: »

The FTSE is still nicely falling assunder,but,its a very reliable trade nearly every summer anyways,greek mess aside.

that's due to its over representation of the energy sector , bp and shell are at year lows

the german dax has no oil majors , its a better bet from an appreciation POV if oil remains on the floor

arrowloopboy · 02-07-2015 6:45pm

stove_salesman wrote: »

that's due to its over representation of the energy sector , bp and shell are at year lows

the german dax has no oil majors , its a better bet from an appreciation POV if oil remains on the floor

Its not only oil,q2 and 3 of the ftse100 are historically little better than flat ,the gains are usually in q1 and 4 ,or basically buy the ftse in October and close the trade in late spring,it works very nicely, for a simple trade.
Sell in May ....:D.

stove_salesman · 02-07-2015 7:31pm

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Its not only oil,q2 and 3 of the ftse100 are historically little better than flat ,the gains are usually in q1 and 4 ,or basically buy the ftse in October and close the trade in late spring,it works very nicely, for a simple trade.
Sell in May ....:D.

never heard of an entire index following such a pattern

For ever odd · 02-07-2015 7:39pm

stove_salesman wrote: »

never heard of an entire index following such a pattern

You should listen more!

For ever odd · 02-07-2015 7:41pm

Tugboats wrote: »

If only everyday was this easy:)

It is this easy everyday.

ixus · 02-07-2015 7:54pm

Weak oil, China and retail all factors in ftse. And strengthened fx.

Greece bad for European markets in very short term and long term if they and Britain exit.

China bad for all markets.

US equities are heavy, won't rally on dovish FED or figures.

Sunday night will be interesting as election results come in.

arrowloopboy · 02-07-2015 9:18pm

[QUOTE=ixus;96098561]Weak oil, China and retail all factors in ftse. And strengthened fx.

Greece bad for European markets in very short term and long term if they and Britain exit.

China bad for all markets.

US equities are heavy, won't rally on dovish FED or figures.

Sunday night will be interesting as election results come in.[/QUOTE]

And seasonality Ixus,don't forget the seasonality,very important

.

For ever odd · 02-07-2015 9:50pm

arrowloopboy wrote: »

And seasonality Ixus,don't forget the seasonality,very important .

The probability of seasonality..... Good trade

Tugboats trade was a good trade based on psychology

So many different ways to play the markets.

Tugboats · 03-07-2015 11:18am

For ever odd wrote: »

It is this easy everyday.

not for me I'm coming off a terrible June!. July has started very well though.

For ever odd · 03-07-2015 1:30pm

Tugboats wrote: »

not for me I'm coming off a terrible June!. July has started very well though.

You seem to be a good fade trader.

For ever odd · 03-07-2015 10:40pm

Greece yes/no vote... What to trade and which way.

All opinions welcome.

arrowloopboy · 03-07-2015 11:03pm

Thought about buying eur/usd earlier ,with a guaranteed s/l until a min 750 point:eek: guaranteed stop popped into the box.
If I could have traded it with a guaranteed 100 point s/l a minute before the bell,i would have ,their should be a big gap Sunday night .

For ever odd · 03-07-2015 11:51pm

I am lookimg to buy the DAX on a no vote and sell it on a yes vote, might get a decent entry point after a week or so. Until then I will go the flow.

dasdog · 05-07-2015 11:22pm

Looking similar to last Sunday and I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro is higher than Friday's close by the morning. Jumped on Dollar/Yen @ 121.900 which appears to be a steal right now.

arrowloopboy · 07-07-2015 8:37am

The only certain thing about this Greek situation is uncertainty ,I didn't even try to trade it ,which is a victory for me in its own right !
I did put on a smallish short on the FTSE,to cover long equity positions,but i'm thinking of closing/reversing this when things settle.
I am short light crude since 5995.00 ,which is flying down thanks to China ,Greece and mostly Iranian/US talks ,which also could unwind shortly .
I basically don't have a good enough handle on this to trade it hard,so as they say,if you don't know what to do,do nothing !

For ever odd · 08-07-2015 1:19pm

dasdog wrote: »

Looking similar to last Sunday and I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro is higher than Friday's close by the morning. Jumped on Dollar/Yen @ 121.900 which appears to be a steal right now.

Did you get out with a profit or are you still holding?

For ever odd · 08-07-2015 7:43pm

For ever odd wrote: »

NYSE still still down before FED minutes

Edit
NYSE expected to re-open trading again at 7:45 -8:00 gmt, finger at the ready in case opportunity comes up

dasdog · 08-07-2015 11:36pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Did you get out with a profit or are you still holding?

Sold the following evening @ 122.490. It had peaked at 122.850 earlier that afternoon but I was too occupied to monitor the situation and greater profit. Haven't traded since aside from the mini EUR rally at 8pm yesterday up to 1.1050 (15 minute scalp). Some very powerful factors out there right now and I don't mind missing out as it's dangerous territory for a novice.

For ever odd · 11-07-2015 6:35pm

Greece is centre stage again for the third weekend running, does anyone really belief that Greece will reform and repay if they get a deal? Leopard and spots....

arrowloopboy · 11-07-2015 10:52pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Greece is centre stage again for the third weekend running, does anyone really belief that Greece will reform and repay if they get a deal? Leopard and spots....

I think the markets may believe it next week anyway !
I'm short light crude ,and was short FTSE ,but I closed the FTSE trade Friday night before the close and possible gap up Sunday night .
China is on the up,but that's basically bullsh1t ,as the market is been heavily manipulated ,with some short sellers in China been actually jailed last week,what a sh1thole,long live the free market:rolleyes:.

dasdog · 11-07-2015 11:54pm

It looks like Schauble is trying to avoid an agreement thinking something will be put together tomorrow and in six or twelve months time we'll be hearing "Questions are being asked about the implementation of the July agreement". He's probably right, it's a bad marriage which will probably stay together for the sake of family.

Resistance lines not support lines this Sunday evening.

For ever odd · 12-07-2015 10:22am

dasdog wrote: »

It looks like Schauble is trying to avoid an agreement thinking something will be put together tomorrow and in six or twelve months time we'll be hearing "Questions are being asked about the implementation of the July agreement". He's probably right, it's a bad marriage which will probably stay together for the sake of family.

Resistance lines not support lines this Sunday evening.

http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=^USDJPY

http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=CLQ15 sweet oil

For ever odd · 12-07-2015 11:18am

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/el-nino-outlook-strong-possible-may2015

El Niño forecast to be strong this year, crops and oil may be worth a look at.

arrowloopboy · 12-07-2015 8:37pm

For ever odd wrote: »

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/el-nino-outlook-strong-possible-may2015

El Niño forecast to be strong this year, crops and oil may be worth a look at.

I'm already short light crude since 5995.00 ,and a lot of the fundamentals are pointing lower (I want to buy the living sh1t out of it at $42 or lower),I was eyeing up Paris milling wheat at 169.00 a ton 3 months ago ,but I wanted it closer to cost of production circa 150.00,it shot up to 205.00 a ton with bad weather in North America in the mean while:o.
I've only tinkered with commodities up to recently ,but the fact that they have a real tangible intrinsic value (cost of production) is really appealing to me.
If you can buy anything that's needed to support life(we can't eat money),at or below the cost of production ,it should be quite easy with the help of leverage,time, and a healthy war chest ,to make quite a lot of money(tax free money via spread betting

).

dasdog · 13-07-2015 10:13am

For ever odd wrote: »

http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=^USDJPY
oil

This was the trade but I gave up on the situation last night. Saga likely to drag on through a humiliated parliament but I've taken a punt on EUR/JPY at 136.650 after the initial spike and drop, stop at 135.900, EUR/USD at 1.1075 stop at 1.1040.

EDIT: Nervous market without indicators and unhedged gambling leads to minus a couple of hundred Euro. Closed before waiting for New York to call bullshít on this.

#2: Knocking on 1.100, mercenary traitor.

dasdog · 14-07-2015 12:25am

EUR/JPY -30.7 pips @ 100k
EUR/USD -27.8 pips @ 100k

Joined the Bears

EUR/USD short +82.4 pips @ 100k/250k closed

Golden Dawn

arrowloopboy · 14-07-2015 8:37am

arrowloopboy wrote: »

The only certain thing about this Greek situation is uncertainty ,I didn't even try to trade it ,which is a victory for me in its own right !
I did put on a smallish short on the FTSE,to cover long equity positions,but i'm thinking of closing/reversing this when things settle.
I am short light crude since 5995.00 ,which is flying down thanks to China ,Greece and mostly Iranian/US talks ,which also could unwind shortly .
I basically don't have a good enough handle on this to trade it hard,so as they say,if you don't know what to do,do nothing !

Deal reached between Us/Iran this morning ,which opens the door for sanctions to be lifted ,more downside for crude in the coming weeks

.

For ever odd · 16-07-2015 10:12pm

dasdog wrote: »

EUR/JPY -30.7 pips @ 100k
EUR/USD -27.8 pips @ 100k

Joined the Bears

EUR/USD short +82.4 pips @ 100k/250k closed

Golden Dawn

Post deleted, sorry about the angry face on the top of the post, I don't know why they keep popping up but it is not intentional.

You sounded frustrated in your previous post and relieved In this one, I hope you are back to yourself now.

We've all been there.

For ever odd · 17-07-2015 8:54pm

Nice formation on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Maybe to early for a breakout but with momentum with the downside who knows. I have next week's lower trend line at 10770 which is in or around the old 10750 level. I will be a seller below 10770 and a buyer above it next week. All depends if it gets to my entry point.

dasdog · 18-07-2015 6:01pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Nice formation on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Maybe to early for a breakout but with momentum with the downside who knows. I have next week's lower trend line at 10770 which is in or around the old 10750 level. I will be a seller below 10770 and a buyer above it next week. All depends if it gets to my entry point.

Very difficult to call either direction with arguments for both sides, I'm staying away. Disastrous deal politically for the Euro project as a whole. Looks like a lack lustre week ahead but CAD & AUD look interesting (over and under sold). I wasn't following at the time but Carney made the same bullish statements and had to retract last year? They've had some impressive wage figures but UK inflation appears non existent.

For ever odd · 19-07-2015 9:58pm

dasdog wrote: »

Very difficult to call either direction with arguments for both sides, I'm staying away. Disastrous deal politically for the Euro project as a whole. Looks like a lack lustre week ahead but CAD & AUD look interesting (over and under sold). I wasn't following at the time but Carney made the same bullish statements and had to retract last year? They've had some impressive wage figures but UK inflation appears non existent.

I presume you are taking about the CAD & AUD against the USD. What's the plan? Are you taking one or both of them on, or are you going to trade the AUD/CAD

arrowloopboy · 20-07-2015 9:33am

Bought Apple (again)last week @ 126.900 ,(s/l @ 10% ,114.000 ish),t/p above 140.000,reporting tomorrow evening .

dasdog · 20-07-2015 11:22am

For ever odd wrote: »

I presume you are taking about the CAD & AUD against the USD. What's the plan? Are you taking one or both of them on, or are you going to trade the AUD/CAD

Looking at selling AUD/CAD and possibly AUD/USD. Aside from the commodity slide and China weakness RBA have been seriously talking down AUD and July minutes are out tonight which don't appear to be getting much focus. RBZ could also drag it on Wednesday if they cut. Q2 CPI on Wednesday adds some risk and print is at 2:30am.

EDIT:
AUD/CAD opened .95750 closed .95710
AUD/USD opened .73665 closed .73580

Euro started showing some bullish signs from 2:00pm which supports the Aussie so not waiting for events and booked a meager 12 pips. Will consider AUD/USD again approaching .74.

Thargor · 21-07-2015 9:25am

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Bought Apple (again)last week @ 126.900 ,(s/l @ 10% ,114.000 ish),t/p above 140.000,reporting tomorrow evening .

Sold mine at 128 for 10% profit, was sure they had stalled and were going to start sliding from there.

Google, Facebook and Tesla all pushing record highs, up nearly 30% on each, getting a bit nervous now though, I always hold too long, anyone got any opinions on when this current run is going to end?

Tugboats · 21-07-2015 9:29am

Thargor wrote: »

Sold mine at 128 for 10% profit, was sure they had stalled and were going to start sliding from there.

Google, Facebook and Tesla all pushing record highs, up nearly 30% on each, getting a bit nervous now though, I always hold too long, anyone got any opinions on when this current run is going to end?

its impossible for Apple share price to fall. Whenever it stalls CNBC give Carl Icahn an hour on TV to pump it

arrowloopboy · 21-07-2015 10:55am

For the first year ever,their were more iphones/ipads sold in China than the u.s,great company ,onwards and upwards .

Thargor · 22-07-2015 2:58pm

Record profits for AAPL and of course they crash down to $123, now Im thinking of buying again, Tesla and Apple are infuriating to hold, sometimes Im completely relaxed about both companies and think they're a no-brainer for long term, then other times I'm completely paranoid about logging on some day and seeing the arse has fallen out of one or both of them.

arrowloopboy · 22-07-2015 7:38pm

Thargor wrote: »

Record profits for AAPL and of course they crash down to $123, now Im thinking of buying again, Tesla and Apple are infuriating to hold, sometimes Im completely relaxed about both companies and think they're a no-brainer for long term, then other times I'm completely paranoid about logging on some day and seeing the arse has fallen out of one or both of them.

Im in at 126.90 ,and nearly jumped on more at 120.00 ,as I was logged on while watching the release ,but didn't as the part of my brain telling me it was a revenge trade won out over the heres a flash sale fill yer boots part of my brain:D.
150.00 by year end ,the affluent Chinese don't want Chinese made phones/tablets etc,apple branded goods are a status symbol which they won't mind paying for ,STRONG BUY,ya heard it here

TRADER'S CORNER

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