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Storm Jorge : February 29th

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    #332
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,841 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    FMI-Hirlam 18z still going for a Connacht landfall tomorrow with strongest of the winds in the SW.

    Looks to be a complete outlier.


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    #333
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,894 ✭✭✭pauldry


    This looking a fairly dry storm as in about 10 to 15mm rain in a lot of places. The last 2 storms the winds picked up when the rain came and died back slightly thereafter.

    This drier storm will be a different beast but I'd expect even stronger winds than Ciara and Dennis during the short lived showers.

    The snow risk appears to have reduced and bar a window of about an hour or two in the morning from 7am in the North and Northwest I wouldn't expect any bar on the hills. Even then some milder or at least slightly milder air will undercut and turn the sleet and snow quickly to rain.

    Sunday will be blustery and showery after this but whisper it quietly the weather is slowly running out of gas and this may be the last storm of the season... until Summer.


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    #334
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    And in comparison to the FMI chart posted above, here is the Dutch (KMNI) 18z Hirlam run for the same time:

    8ROcDp3.png

    Low much further north and more in keeping with the cross model consensus.

    New Moon



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    #335
    dermiek
    Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭dermiek


    I understand that issuing warnings using county boundaries it is the easiest method, and I know not all the county will be affected. but would it not be possible for Met Éireann, after giving the details, to clarify something like “ Galway County is red warning from the coast to Galway city. All East of this will possibly only be an orange level event “ or something similar? Or is that a no go?


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    #336
    Sundew
    Registered Users Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭Sundew


    Just nipped outside to give dog a run, and it's got pretty breezy out now in Sth Galway.
    Hopefully the ash tree near the house will survive Jorge!


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    #337
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    dermiek wrote: »
    I understand that issuing warnings using county boundaries it is the easiest method, and I know not all the county will be affected. but would it not be possible for Met Éireann, after giving the details, to clarify something like “ Galway County is red warning from the coast to Galway city. All East of this will possibly only be an orange level event “ or something similar? Or is that a no go?

    Looking at the map Meteorite posted above, it would seem that central areas right as far as Dublin would be just as deserving of a 'Red' level as much as we are in the eastern half of Galway, which is actually under a red warning. It just doesn't make any sense.

    New Moon



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    #338
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,125 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Gusty squall gone through in Kildare


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    #339
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    Any reason why most of these storms end up being on a weekend. I know I'm being sort sighting because it probably evens out to any day or the course of how many storms there has been throughout the years. But recently many have being on the weekend.

    I remember one particular part of a summer in the late 80s and every day was sunny and warm up till around 2pm then fairweather cloud would bubble through mid-afternoon and a rain front would cross that evening around 6pm. It was rinse-and-repeat of this daily pattern for around two weeks. Thinking it was around the first or second two weeks of August. Not sure if it was 87, 88 or 89. One of those fronts gave an impressive thunderstorm though - so made up for the mundane.

    I've a family member living in Florida and they can literally set their watch to 1.58pm for when the daily showers arrive. It felt like that here in what I mentioned above.


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    #340
    SNNUS
    Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭SNNUS


    RocketRaccoon wrote: »
    How quickly is this meant to pass over the country? I have a flight Monday evening which I'm assuming will be fine?

    That particular flight is cancelled.


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    #341
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Looking at the latest runs, and it looks increasingly, and inevitably, to be another total non-event for east Galway. Top gusts range from 48 knots (UK Met) to 58 knots (Harmonie & GFS). Certainly lively, but hardly panic inducing 'Red' levels. No doubt a red warning is warranted for coastal parts (I haven't bothered to check) but these one size fits all warnings are just a joke.

    Galway should be split in two. Connemara and Galway proper.*


    *just a suggestion


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    #342
    SAXA
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭SAXA


    I live on west coast. We know all about such storms
    .Younger generations have more to loose.. re cost etc . I saw Darwin... never forget that storm


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    #343
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    SAXA wrote: »
    I live on west coast. We know all about such storms
    .Younger generations have more to loose.. re cost etc . I saw Darwin... never forget that storm

    Darwin was probably the worst storm over the last 20yrs, however it wouldn't lace the shoes of the Christmas 1997 storm.


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    #344
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    Danno wrote: »
    Darwin was probably the worst storm over the last 20yrs, however it wouldn't lace the shoes of the Christmas 1997 storm.

    Just thinking the highest gust of the 2 Jan 1976 storm was 85kts in Birr! 157km gust! So far inland..


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    #345
    RocketRaccoon
    Registered Users Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭RocketRaccoon


    SNNUS wrote: »
    That particular flight is cancelled.

    Lovely stuff, I'll let work know. Is it OK if they contact you for confirmation?


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    #346
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Danno wrote: »
    Galway should be split in two. Connemara and Galway proper.*


    *just a suggestion
    I wonder how many Co. Laois' you could fit into Co. Galway, a good 4 or 5 times I'd say.

    New Moon



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    #347
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    I wonder how many Co. Laois' you could fit into Co. Galway, a good 4 or 5 times I'd say.

    3.75 times!

    Galway has 6,149km squared
    Laois has 1,720km squared

    And we still ran yea close in 2013 and 2014 in the Leinster SHC! :D


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    #348
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,155 ✭✭✭highdef


    RocketRaccoon wrote: »
    Lovely stuff, I'll let work know. Is it OK if they contact you for confirmation?

    Well, if you had mentioned what your departure time was, the airport you were flying from, the airport you were arriving at plus the expected arrival time, people just might have been a teeny weeny bit nicer about it. Saying that you "have a flight Monday evening" means nothing to everybody but yourself.


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    #349
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,523 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Naggdefy wrote: »
    Just thinking the highest gust of the 2 Jan 1976 storm was 85kts in Birr! 157km gust! So far inland..

    Shows ya what storms were capable of back then having a direct impact on Ireland and an enhanced gradient in the North Atlantic with it being so cold. Meanwhile, Mullingar's max gust in my table was 96 km/h during Doris in Feb 2017. Barely even a yellow.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #350
    RocketRaccoon
    Registered Users Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭RocketRaccoon


    highdef wrote: »
    Well, if you had mentioned what your departure time was, the airport you were flying from, the airport you were arriving at plus the expected arrival time, people just might have been a teeny weeny bit nicer about it. Saying that you "have a flight Monday evening" means nothing to everybody but yourself.

    Hence why I actually asked how quickly it was due to move across the country.


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    #351
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    FMI-Hirlam 18z still going for a Connacht landfall tomorrow with strongest of the winds in the SW.

    Yep, in fact it wants to keep the bulk of them out to sea. Why is it different to the Dutch Hirlam? Does it crunch different data?

    fmiuk-11-20-0_wzd4.png


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    #352
    un5byh7sqpd2x0
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,862 ✭✭✭un5byh7sqpd2x0


    RocketRaccoon wrote: »
    22 pages of posts.

    met.ie


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    #353
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    I wonder what the waves will be like in Fenit and Banna tomorrow :)


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    #354
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,125 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Danno wrote: »
    Darwin was probably the worst storm over the last 20yrs, however it wouldn't lace the shoes of the Christmas 1997 storm.

    Darwin was bad alright but ophelia is still the worst storm I have encountered in this country.


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    #355
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    RocketRaccoon wrote: »
    Hence why I actually asked how quickly it was due to move across the country.

    Ah you're not the worst offender!

    However, you can understand the annoyance on here due to the sheer abundance of "will my flight/car journey/event/potted plant be okay at X time"! Plus alot of the time the people who answer these questions know very little or no more information than what's been said on thread already.

    It's also quite annoying when you can very very easily go onto the Met Éireann website, read the timings of the warnings, read their written and digital forecasts and read wind forecast maps yourself if you so wish. Even if you'd rather just stay on this website, MT offers a top class daily forecast, for free, on this forum.

    A storm that begins tomorrow morning will not still be blowing as strong on Monday evening, that's common sense.


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    #356
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Some very cold cloud tops visible on satellite now will be getting into the southwest in a few hours, so watch out for thunderstorms there. It's signalled on the UKMO 06Z aviation chart but not on the Met Éireann one. Met Éireann have that occlusion just reaching the Mayo coast at 25 knots, with frequent rain/sleet/hail showers, isolated thunderstorms and snow showers. The low of 953 hPa is at about 56 N 13.5W (about 300 km NW of Belmullet).


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    #357
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Darwin was bad alright but ophelia is still the worst storm I have encountered in this country.

    Nipper :D


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    #358
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Winds at 21.26 show the centre at 56N 19.5W, with 60-knot barbs (so in reality 65-70 real winds) around its southern flank.

    The latest analysis just in has it about a degree further east at midnight. Those cold cloudtops mentioned above correspond to that trough off the southwest coast.

    504174.png

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020022900_000.png


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    #359
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Yep, in fact it wants to keep the bulk of them out to sea. Why is it different to the Dutch Hirlam? Does it crunch different data?


    HIRLAM is not a "model" per se, it's a European collaboration for high res weather models. Arome and Harmonie are part of the project. Countries can use the same model but tweak "settings" based on their needs that may or may not give a more accurate output.

    http://hirlam.org/


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    #360
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    The storm of February 1988 was particularly nasty. I think Bemullet had a gust of 170kmph


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    #361
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Forecast for 18Z shows the tightest gradient over the central band of the country, including Connacht to north/central Leinster. Interesting day ahead.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020022818_024.png


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