Who thinks winter 2011/2012 will be even colder than the last 2?

Musicman2000 · 28-08-2011 4:32pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Why is everyone fairly positive that this winter is gonna deliver plenty of snow and cold temperatures like the beginning of last winter? Irish winters are generally mild and wet and sometimes snow free, we got lucky past 3 winters. Many people were confident of a heatwave this summer and look how it turned out. Having said that I would love another snowy winter but maybe more towards January and February rather than November and December.

Have to agree with Gonzo:)

NIALL D · 28-08-2011 6:19pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Have to agree with Gonzo:)

you would rather loads of snow in January and February instead of November and December is it ??? :pac:

ch750536 · 28-08-2011 7:05pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Why is everyone fairly positive that this winter is gonna deliver plenty of snow and cold temperatures like the beginning of last winter? Irish winters are generally mild and wet and sometimes snow free, we got lucky past 3 winters. Many people were confident of a heatwave this summer and look how it turned out. Having said that I would love another snowy winter but maybe more towards January and February rather than November and December.

One or 2 is lucky, 3 is the start of a trend.

bb1234567 · 28-08-2011 8:02pm

and a 4th

will prove all pesimists beyond doubt we ARE in a rend of colder winters:D:D:D:D

Gonzo · 28-08-2011 10:00pm

NIALL D wrote: »

you would rather loads of snow in January and February instead of November and December is it ??? :pac:

yeah coz lots of snow in the run-up to christmas aint good for getting around and even worse around Christmas, imagine not being able to get down to the pub for those christmas eve pints! Once It's Christmas Day morning it can snow all it like!

Yahew · 29-08-2011 10:00am

Very little in this thread except wishful thinking.

Elmer Blooker · 29-08-2011 10:09am

NIALL D wrote: »

lets hope jan and feb will be as snowy as nov/dec las year..
a good long spell of cold/snow would be grand :D

In the winter of 08/09 the cold and snow was in February, in 09/10 it was January and 10/11 it was December. I'm hoping for a hat trick this winter - December, January AND February !!

Yahew · 29-08-2011 10:56am

Feck it I go with a snowmageddon in Nov, Dec, Jan, Fev, March, April and early May. Then it gets real hot!

(expecting lots of thanks).

dsmythy · 29-08-2011 11:47am

Yahew wrote: »

Feck it I go with a snowmageddon in Nov, Dec, Jan, Fev, March, April and early May. Then it gets real hot!

(expecting lots of thanks).

Ya got mine. All just instinct and hopes in this thread. My instinct says three cold ones in a row a little too much to ask for. I think it's time for breezy westerlies to get a turn. Or maybe that's just my wishes

Yahew · 29-08-2011 12:40pm

I like cold winters too. Any long term forecasts from Bastardi?

Blizzard 2010 · 29-08-2011 3:54pm

I am nearly sure Joe has retired from AccWeather. someone could correct me on this one. He is on a site called WeatherBell now

29-08-2011 4:02pm

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

I am nearly sure Joe has retired from AccWeather. someone could correct me on this one.

Here he is http://www.weatherbell.com/team-bio/#bastardi

nacho libre · 29-08-2011 4:19pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

is that a joke or do you actually think that this winter will be mild?

Yes I was joking. I'm hoping it will be a winter to rival 1947! I hope to see Gerard Flemming informing the public that there is no immediate end in sight to the extremely cold weather next December!

Kippure · 29-08-2011 5:14pm

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

I am nearly sure Joe has retired from AccWeather. someone could correct me on this one. He is on a site called WeatherBell now

I emailed him a few times. I dont think he will be doing an european winter forecast in the near future. I,d like it if he would do one........but think he is commiting more of his time to weather bell.

Blizzard 2010 · 29-08-2011 8:39pm

Kippure wrote: »

I emailed him a few times. I dont think he will be doing an european winter forecast in the near future. I,d like it if he would do one........but think he is commiting more of his time to weather bell.

It is a pity because his forecasts were detailed and colourfull

29-08-2011 11:18pm

I am stocked up on Turf, @2 euro per bag. Bring it Bi*****

squonk · 30-08-2011 10:16am

This thread is becoming boring very quickly. Posts like "Oh it'll snow like hell because there's low solar activity and, well, I just want it to" are grand but we've no long range forecasts as yet and I'd rather be reading people's interpretations of those. I do want a snowy winter but this year has been quite different. It seems to be have been colder, wetter and cloudier and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Christmas travel distruption was caused this year by floods and high winds rather than snow. The truth is that we just don't know. I was out and about a lot last October when we had some beautiful warm cloudless days and if somebody had told me then that six weeks later I could look forward to having to leave work early after the Luas stopped due to heavy snowfall and I'd be marooned in my house the following day, I wouldn't have believed a word of it. I'd like to start seeing some long range forecasts at this stage.

MrMickeyMouse · 30-08-2011 10:30am

squonk wrote: »

I'd like to start seeing some long range forecasts at this stage.

That's the point, long range forecasts are very hit and miss, the best we can hope for is the type of forecast that says certain conditions during certain months have produced xyz snow or rain etc.

We have weather records going back 200 years or so, the planet is 4.5 billion years old, so to be honest our records are not going to be an accurate reflection of the changing weather patterns.

We can predict as much as we like, but until a few days before the event you will never find a single professional meteorologist who would say an event will or will not happen, it's all too random.

It is said this summer was the coldest for 50 years in Ireland, it could be the warmest for the next 2000, we simply have no idea, but at least it gives the forums something to talk about. Sure beats Big Brother

touts · 30-08-2011 12:50pm

Well all the trees seem to know something because I've never seen so many brown/red/yellow leaves in August. It might be just a side effect of last winter and a basic mechanism of it was cold last winter so it will be cold this winter so best to shut down early. However you could choose to believe that if the trees are heading for the bunker early it's time to stock up on coal.

Yahew · 30-08-2011 12:52pm

touts wrote: »

Well all the trees seem to know something because I've never seen so many brown/red/yellow leaves in August. It might be just a side effect of last winter and a basic mechanism of it was cold last winter so it will be cold this winter so best to shut down early. However you could choose to believe that if the trees are heading for the bunker early it's time to stock up on coal.

Thats possibly the cold summer, though.

gothwalk · 30-08-2011 1:04pm

touts wrote: »

Well all the trees seem to know something because I've never seen so many brown/red/yellow leaves in August. It might be just a side effect of last winter and a basic mechanism of it was cold last winter so it will be cold this winter so best to shut down early. However you could choose to believe that if the trees are heading for the bunker early it's time to stock up on coal.

Quite aside from the notion that the summer weather (or lack thereof) would have more effect, I would love to see some research done on this. It's a bit of commonly received "folk wisdom" that heavy fruiting indicates a cold winter. I've not heard anything about early leaf fall in the same context, but still - actual numbers would be great.

Anecdotally, the last two years have had heavy crops on rowans and hawthorns around our place, and this year's crop on the hawthorns is nothing short of spectacular. But the trees in Dublin don't seem to have the same numbers of berries, even though I'm seeing autumn colours far sooner than expected.

Trouble is, I'm not even sure how you'd verify a heavy crop on wild fruit trees - count an average of haws per branch? Pick them all and weigh them, and account for the growth of the tree somehow? Does the fact that I trimmed the hedge back last year rather harder than it's been before have an effect? And so on.

For now, I'm content to go with the anecdotal version: I'm seeing what appear to be heavy crops on the trees, same as the last two years. I'm also taking note of the early autumn colours. And we'll see what comes up. If I get positive and negative indicators clear over a decade, then I'll start to think about measuring it.

snowstreams · 30-08-2011 1:05pm

Yahew wrote: »

Thats possibly the cold summer, though.

True, but a cold summer will probably mean a cold winter too. Though it may not mean we get any really long lasting cold spell.
We might just get a winter with 5c most days and 0c most nights that averages out to be colder than normal, but without any extremes.

Yahew · 30-08-2011 1:10pm

Remember, not all old wives tales are false. As far as I know "its always sunny on the first week back in School" has some statistical validation. ( I think its the end of the higher levels of August convectional rain, and before the start of the winter storms).

The berries cant anticipate the future, but they might be affected by Summer, and therefore show a correlation between the late summer weather and winter.

fizzycyst · 30-08-2011 1:27pm

I don't know about old wives tales, but one thing I will add is that I have never seen so much fruit on our plum and pear trees, especially the plums, the branches are laden down with them. Also a big strawberry crop in the garden.

Whether this means anything, who knows? But it seems counter-intuitive to me because I would have thought that for trees to bear more fruit than usual, you would need more (rather than less) sun.

ShawB · 30-08-2011 1:37pm

I'm clearly not an expert and I don't post on here usually, but I think people who expect this winter to be mild are naive in a sense. Does 2 of these winters not convince you that our climate has dramatically changed in recent years? I am not 1 for the facts but from the reading I have done it certainly seems that way, I am no snow bunny I don't pray for snow or anything and it can be annoying when we cant get around to go to work and college, but it seems as if that's whats gonna happen again this year. Ireland needs to expect these winters and be prepared for them or else we are never going to be able to deal with them.

Elmer Blooker · 30-08-2011 2:13pm

fizzycyst wrote: »

I don't know about old wives tales, but one thing I will add is that I have never seen so much fruit on our plum and pear trees, especially the plums, the branches are laden down with them. Also a big strawberry crop in the garden.

Whether this means anything, who knows? But it seems counter-intuitive to me because I would have thought that for trees to bear more fruit than usual, you would need more (rather than less) sun.

I think the reason why your plum and pear trees are laden down is because of the very warm and sunny April, (a severe frost in April can destroy the crop as that's when the fruit is formed)
As for the coming winter? The Central England Temperature records show that mild winters do occur during a solar minimum so anything can happen.

Yahew · 30-08-2011 2:20pm

So do warm April's statistically correlate to cold summers and cold winters? La nina related? Or is it cold summers and mild winters?

bb1234567 · 30-08-2011 4:24pm

there is no reason to believe that this winter will be mild, there is a chance obviously it will be but people saying that this winter will be mild just want it to be mild, forcasters saying it will be mild are only saying that so if the winter turns out warm they will look good, they have no evidence supporting a mild winter at all. nobody knows what the coming winter will be like but , there is definitely a higher chance of it being colder winter this year because of low solar activty,la nina and some forcasters are saying the gulf stream and volcanoes too. now im not saying this winter will be cold, but forecasters who are forecasting a cold winter have more evidence and support of a cold winter than those forecasting a mild one. i think it would be naive to think that this winter will be mild people who 'think' this winter will be mild just want it to be mild.just because we have had 3 cold winters doesnt mean we are in for or deserve a mild winter this year! there is definitely a higher chance of the coming winter being colder like the last few years

I personally think that the coming winter will rival the last two winters but last longer

Yahew · 30-08-2011 4:32pm

Mostly the wishfull thinking is, however, for a cold winter. Despite the cold summer Ireland still had a warm year by the standards of 1970-2000.

nacho libre · 30-08-2011 5:15pm

That doesn't surprise me about this year being warm overall so far. Since what most of the studies about the effects of solar activity seem to indicate is temporary periods of notable localised cooling, while the planet continues to warm overall.

MrMickeyMouse · 30-08-2011 8:01pm

Yahew wrote: »

Remember, not all old wives tales are false. As far as I know "its always sunny on the first week back in School" has some statistical validation. ( I think its the end of the higher levels of August convectional rain, and before the start of the winter storms).

The berries cant anticipate the future, but they might be affected by Summer, and therefore show a correlation between the late summer weather and winter.

The kids in the UK go back to school a week later and Holyhead is only 60 miles away, which is less than the width of our lovely Emerald (this month at least) Isle!!

MrMickeyMouse · 30-08-2011 8:03pm

Yahew wrote: »

So do warm April's statistically correlate to cold summers and cold winters? La nina related? Or is it cold summers and mild winters?

As I said several posts ago....the Earth is approx 4.5 billion years old, so a warm April based on 200 years of records is not an accurate yard stick at all! Not in the slightest!!!

There have been 4.5 billion Aprils and we only have data for about 200 of them. So the warm April theory is based on 0.000004% of all Aprils, hmmm.

Think i'll stick to poking my head out of the door in December and looking at the ground!!

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow (for a day or so).

Yahew · 30-08-2011 8:12pm

MrMickeyMouse wrote: »

Yahew wrote: »

So do warm April's statistically correlate to cold summers and cold winters? La nina related? Or is it cold summers and mild winters?

As I said several posts ago....the Earth is approx 4.5 billion years old, so a warm April based on 200 years of records is not an accurate yard stick at all! Not in the slightest!!!

The Earth being 4.5 billion years old means nothing. We are in a certain climate now and not in any other period. Periods when there was no oxygen are not useful guides for present climate, for instance. Your "argument" would invalidate any attempt to explain why this winter might be mild, or cold. As far as you are concerned we might as well predict the seasons 1 billion years ago. In that case nothing can be guessed from anything: sun spots, volcanoes, la Nina, el Nino all would be dismissed with the 4.5 B year argument.

Rubbish

derekon · 30-08-2011 9:59pm

Well it would appear that the desire for snow is gaining momentum as we head towards Autumn. I sincerely hope we are not disappointed and end up getting a long line of mild westerlies all winter with temps of 11oC-13oC :mad:

Anyway, brief reminder below of snowy Dublin last December to whet your appetite for winter 2011-2012 in Ireland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcwac-tRHlE

bb1234567 · 30-08-2011 10:49pm

oh my god i cant wait!! forgot just how amazing snow was

thanks, but you made me even more hungry for snow

patneve2 · 31-08-2011 7:57pm

lets hope la NINA doesn't ruin it all for us snow lovers...

MrMickeyMouse · 31-08-2011 8:11pm

Yahew wrote: »

The Earth being 4.5 billion years old means nothing. We are in a certain climate now and not in any other period. Periods when there was no oxygen are not useful guides for present climate, for instance. Your "argument" would invalidate any attempt to explain why this winter might be mild, or cold. As far as you are concerned we might as well predict the seasons 1 billion years ago. In that case nothing can be guessed from anything: sun spots, volcanoes, la Nina, el Nino all would be dismissed with the 4.5 B year argument.

Rubbish

Hardly rubbish is it, how can you predict the weather based on such a small percentage of the time the planet has been in existence, I appreciate that 4.5 billion years ago there might not have been much atmosphere to breath but there has certainly been civilised life for what, 4000 years.

So 4000 years ago there was no oxygen, hmmmm. There is a big difference in us saying we'd like snow and people actually saying it will snow heavily based on a very small percentage of records.

I think you'll find the ancient Egyptians had weather, so there has been a viable atmosphere and therefore weather patterns for 1000's of years.

So is it rubbish to say that we only have a small percentage of records? Nope.

Yahew · 31-08-2011 8:26pm

MrMickeyMouse wrote: »

Hardly rubbish is it, how can you predict the weather based on such a small percentage of the time the planet has been in existence, I appreciate that 4.5 billion years ago there might not have been much atmosphere to breath but there has certainly been civilised life for what, 4000 years.So 4000 years ago there was no oxygen, hmmmm.

:rolleyes:

Anybody follow that logic?

There is a big difference in us saying we'd like snow and people actually saying it will snow heavily based on a very small percentage of records.

The 200 years of records is enough to do some educated guesses as to what can happen at a season.

I think you'll find the ancient Egyptians had weather, so there has been a viable atmosphere and therefore weather patterns for 1000's of years.

FFS the EGYPTIANS DID NOT LIVE BILLIONS OF YEARS AGO! Your argument was that we have only 200 years of records from 4.5 billion. You now seem to be talking egyptians, who came about 4.5 billion years after the earth was formed, as do we.

So is it rubbish to say that we only have a small percentage of records? Nope.

It is rubbish to say that the climate 4 billion years ago is relevant to our predictive power now. We have records for the last 200. We also know that there are certain modulations in the climate caused by climatological events like El Nina, and by the sun spots, volcanos and so on. So we can make educated guesses as to winters,or summers. Those guesses wont be spot on, but they are not worthless either, and get better as computers do. Joe Bastardi was on the money last year.

MrMickeyMouse · 31-08-2011 8:54pm

I'm obviously wasting my time.

Where did I say the Egyptians lived millions of years ago.

Try reading the post!!

And it was you that mentioned the lack of oxygen in certain periods

Periods when there was no oxygen are not useful guides for present climate, for instance.

I mentioned that the ancient Egyptians would have had weather 4000 years ago!!

So, please before you sit on your high horse, you might do me the pleasure of actually reading my post.

octo · 31-08-2011 8:56pm

Yahew wrote: »

So do warm April's statistically correlate to cold summers and cold winters? La nina related? Or is it cold summers and mild winters?

No, there's no correlation either way. The atmosphere doesn't 'remember', and there is noone in the sky keeping a ledger. It's all random variation around a mean. That is my understanding of the science.

Pretty easy to investigate with excel and the monthly data from http://eca.knmi.nl/.

gothwalk · 31-08-2011 10:24pm

octo wrote: »

No, there's no correlation either way. The atmosphere doesn't 'remember', and there is noone in the sky keeping a ledger. It's all random variation around a mean. That is my understanding of the science.

Almost. It's chaotic variation around a mean.

That means that there are long term patterns, but predicting it on a short term basis is very hard.

Scholesy1981 · 01-09-2011 9:17am

no word outta ken ring lately?

01-09-2011 10:41am

Scholesy1981 wrote: »

no word outta ken ring lately?

I reckon he's decided that after his previous maulings here, it's better to keep stumm.

MrMickeyMouse · 02-09-2011 1:58pm

gothwalk wrote: »

Almost. It's chaotic variation around a mean.

That means that there are long term patterns, but predicting it on a short term basis is very hard.

Exactly my point!

ShannonDolphin · 02-09-2011 4:20pm

gothwalk wrote: »

Almost. It's chaotic variation around a mean.

That means that there are long term patterns, but predicting it on a short term basis is very hard.

Yeah, but recent trends are more useful predictors that long term averages. I mean, some poor caveman freezing his arse off 15,000 years ago in the middle of an ice age isn't gonna put much store in the 10 million year mean winter temp saying winters are quite mild. Is he

thetonynator · 02-09-2011 6:39pm

Scholesy1981 wrote: »

no word outta ken ring lately?

he has an autumn forecast in the farmers journal this week, will post it up when i get a chance.

thetonynator · 02-09-2011 10:23pm

Ken Ring expects some severe frosts and possibly snow in the not too distant future:

(his forecast in the Farmers Journal this week)

A drier than average autumn can be expected with virtually all districts below average rainfall levels, with the exception of the areas around Dublin and Killarney.
The northern counties may be driest making a welcome change. Autumn may also be sunnier than average, especially in the east, southeast and south and also the northwest. The dry and sunny conditions should result in average temperatures overall.

September - Overall, September will bring a drier start to autumn. Very little rainfall can be expected this month. Only the far eastern parts of Ulster, Leinster and the southern Munster can expect a wetter than average month.
Cork can expect to be wetter, mostly as a result of a couple of very wet days around 17 to 19 September and 29 to 30 September, with the chance of local flooding.
The first two weeks should be mostly fine and dry with only isolated showers from the 1 to 4 Sept and 8 to 9 September. It is not until 16 September that the first of two major wet phrases arrives. From 18 to 21 September, a widespread rainy period sweeps across the country. A mainly fine period follows from 22 to 28 September, except for isolated overnight showers in Ulster, Leinster and Munster.
September sees slightly warmer that average temperature overall - warmer in the west and northwest. Slightly cooler conditions can be expected in Northern Ulster and the far southwest of Munster. The warmest spell is possibly during the second week. Daily maximum temperatures for the month will range between 12C and 24C, with minimums ranging between 1C and 14C.

October - October may also be drier overall in Ulster, Connacht and Munster, with Leinster fairly close to average, but much of the east may get above average rainfall.
Dublin could get up to 50% additional rainfall, while inland western counties can expect to be drier than average. The wettest area may still be Killarney, while the north and northeast of Ulster and southwest of Munster may be driest.
Precipitation may be daily through most of the first three weeks, broken only by a fine day around 7 October. Expect heavy rain on 10 and 11 October and 16 to 17 October. From 21 to 29 October it may be mainly fine and dry, apart from showers in north and west during 25 to 27 October. This spell brings chances of early snow flurries in Ulster and light to moderate sleet or snowfall, mostly overnight, for Dublin. More light rainfall is expected on 30 and 31 October.

Sunshine - Considerably more sunshine can be expected this month but overcast days are likely from 9 to 11, 13 to 14, 16 to 18 and 23 October, as well as 30 October in Ulster and Connacht. Frost can be expected around 4 to 8 October, particularly in Ulster and southwest Munster.
Overall, most can expect slightly below average daily maximums, but southwest Munster may be considerably colder, while some western counties may be slightly above average. Daily highs may steadily drop from about 18C or 19C at the start of the month to as low as 6C or 7C by the end of the month. Daily minimums may range between -7C and 13C.
Widespread frost could occur on 8 October but this will be more constant from 24 to 29 October. Record minimum temperatures as low as -7C, could occur in inland areas on 28 to 29 October.

Blizzard 2010 · 02-09-2011 11:07pm

He also predicted a long hot summer

thetonynator · 02-09-2011 11:38pm

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

He also predicted a long hot summer

I never said i set any store in it, I just posted what he has forecasted.

MrMickeyMouse · 03-09-2011 6:35pm

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

He also predicted a long hot summer

And it was the coldest for 50 years....so once again we can stick to the tried and tested method of looking at of the window just before we pick up our coat or not!!

Who thinks winter 2011/2012 will be even colder than the last 2?

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