Who thinks winter 2011/2012 will be even colder than the last 2?

bb1234567

its just a bit of fun,just want to know wha people think. Because of Low solar activity and the jet stream does that mean we will have a very cold winter this year? I hope so

thetonynator

I think it's extremely unlikely that we will get a spell of weather as cold as the four weeks from the end of November to Christmas last year. Thats not to say we won't have a cold spell or a very cold winter overall, but its very unlikely we'll get that type of spell again any time soon.

MUSEIST

I dont think it will be colder bit I would not be suprised if we had a fair bit of snow during a cold spell

Mycroft H

thetonynator wrote: »

I think it's extremely unlikely that we will get a spell of weather as cold as the four weeks from the end of November to Christmas last year. Thats not to say we won't have a cold spell or a very cold winter overall, but its very unlikely we'll get that type of spell again any time soon.

We were saying the same thing last year about last winter

I reckon we could have another cold and bitter winter, maybe even some more snow.

Can't wait now:D

needs a poll!!!

Pigeon Reaper

I'd better get the landrovers heater fixed then.

Blizzard 2010

I think it will be the same as last year but with more snow.I think January 2012 will be much colder and snowier than last this year.:D

bb1234567

blizzard10- thats exactly what I think too! I think december will be the same as last year but i think jan and fab will be cold and snowy too like december. It was so weird how nov and dec were frezzing last year and jan and feb which are traditionally colder were mild :eek:

NIALL D

lets hope jan and feb will be as snowy as nov/dec las year..
a good long spell of cold/snow would be grand :D

leahyl

Oh jeez I cannot wait for the now traditional snowfest discussion:D

bb1234567

I know I love it too, its nearly as good as christmas

wobbles

I hope it snows for a few days but we dont have the weeks of freezing cold weather like last year.

bb1234567

booo!!! :mad: ^^ I want snow from november til end of march, no less :P

bb1234567

Deleted User wrote: »

needs a poll!!!

I dont know how to make a poll :P

thetonynator

leahyl wrote: »

Oh jeez I cannot wait for the now traditional snowfest discussion:D

One mention of the s word and look who turns up . . .:pac:

Kippure

I do.

Derfil

Unlikely. The last two winters were the exception rather than the rule. Could be another 30 years before that happens again.

Iancar29

Lets just say.... Im ordering Skiis!

bb1234567

Derfil wrote: »

Unlikely. The last two winters were the exception rather than the rule. Could be another 30 years before that happens again.

A warmer Arctic climate is influencing the air pressure at the North Pole and shifting wind patterns on our planet. We can expect more cold and snowy winters in Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America. "Cold and snowy winters WILL BE THE RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION," says Dr. James Overland of the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in the United States.

J6P

bb1234567 wrote: »

A warmer Arctic climate is influencing the air pressure at the North Pole and shifting wind patterns on our planet. We can expect more cold and snowy winters in Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America. "Cold and snowy winters WILL BE THE RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION," says Dr. James Overland of the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in the United States.

I wont argue with that:)

uberalles

Order them winter tyres here ......
http://www.eiretyres.com/

Calibos

I'd love for it to become the rule rather than the exception because that would mean we'd all finally be persuaded to prepare for it. Insulate pipes and attics, councils get more gritters, snowtyres, shovels, crampons and miniture american flags for everyone etc etc etc. Without the negative effects we'd all get to enjoy it even more. If its a long term trend its a pity it didn't start in the early to mid noughties when we all had the money to pay for it all though.

zenno

this winter will be the winter to beat all of them. it will be alot worse this coming winter I can assure you according to my models it will beat the great Irish frost of 1740. anyone want to put a bet on.

leahyl

zenno wrote: »

this winter will be the winter to beat all of them. it will be alot worse this coming winter I can assure you according to my models it will beat the great Irish frost of 1740. anyone want to put a bet on.

Interesting.....:pac: I'm gonna hold you to that prediction!:D

Doublechinlolz

Omg i want snow now

mike65

I see a never ending wave of south-westerlies bring warm wet windy weather from October to March.

Bring your wellies!

proon4

Just an observation..I have 3 bushes in my garden ( dont ask me the name )
for the last 2 years in late spring a lovely white flower covered the bushes and in late autumn they were covered in red berries completly covered. It was lovely watching all the birds eating them during the really cold weather in winter. This spring the bushes were like they were prior to 2009. Some white flowers, but nowhere like the last 2 years. So I assume their wont be as many berries this winter. Maybe nature was looking after the birds during the last severe winter. Is this pointing to a mild winter ? I hope so

Calibos

proon4 wrote: »

Just an observation..I have 3 bushes in my garden ( dont ask me the name )
for the last 2 years in late spring a lovely white flower covered the bushes and in late autumn they were covered in red berries completly covered. It was lovely watching all the birds eating them during the really cold weather in winter. This spring the bushes were like they were prior to 2009. Some white flowers, but nowhere like the last 2 years. So I assume their wont be as many berries this winter. Maybe nature was looking after the birds during the last severe winter. Is this pointing to a mild winter ? I hope so

I'm not sure about the latin name of the bush but the colloqiual name for it is "The Psychic Bush"

bb1234567

proon4 wrote: »

Just an observation..I have 3 bushes in my garden ( dont ask me the name )
for the last 2 years in late spring a lovely white flower covered the bushes and in late autumn they were covered in red berries completly covered. It was lovely watching all the birds eating them during the really cold weather in winter. This spring the bushes were like they were prior to 2009. Some white flowers, but nowhere like the last 2 years. So I assume their wont be as many berries this winter. Maybe nature was looking after the birds during the last severe winter. Is this pointing to a mild winter ? I hope so

A mild winter...!?! you make me sick..pshh

123balltv

I can feel it we are going to have a cold one I can feel the chill
already and its only the start of August

HellFireClub

In fairness I just love the snow and the discussion that follows it on here, but if you are running a business it can put you under, especially when the wider economic context is considered. I know one lad who runs a business and it took him months to get over the way everything came to a standstill at the one time of the year that he had hoped would be busy for him.

The failure of this country to deal with snow and keep things moving is also obviously a large part of the problem here, people not being prepared, etc...

bb1234567

I'd say that if this winter was a very cold one the public and government would know that our climate has shifted to a much colder one and that we are in for much colderr winters in future after a 4th cold snowy winter in a row. The genral public and everyone would actually then start to prepare for the coming winter every year after this one like everyone does in countries like canada and usa . this will be our 4 th cold winter in a row and still many ppl arent preparing for it, and why...its because you still have scientista saying the last few winter were an exception and our winters will go back to normal and so the public dont feel the need to prepare. So I think it would be good if this winter was cold, it would be proof that our winters are going back to winters like that of during the maunder minimum and everyone would recognise that we will have colder winters from now on. and so the govnt would be forced to invest in winter equipment,laws will be made where everyone must wwear winter tyres, everyone will be prepared,schools and businneses wont be affected,nor will transport and life will go on in uk and ireland. So if this winter is cold itll be a win win for everybody, after this nobody will be affected by snow in a bad way but people like me will get to love snow all winter long :D

oisingeogho

want another cold and snowy winter but just dont want to get my hopes up!

leahyl

thetonynator wrote: »

One mention of the s word and look who turns up . . .:pac:

:pac:

Doublechinlolz

How many years has it been now that there has been nationwide snow? Would this year only be the third consecutive year?
And we should all place bets whether or not the country will fall to it's knees again :pac:

bb1234567

MarkD09 wrote: »

How many years has it been now that there has been nationwide snow? Would this year only be the third consecutive year?
And we should all place bets whether or not the country will fall to it's knees again :pac:

4th;)

Deep Easterly

I personally am hoping for a long overdue stormy and vigorous winter. The last 3 winters were cold, yes, but were also incredibly boring weather wise. Roll on the force 11 gales, the squalls and the thundering skies. If it snows, a bonus; if it doesn't, ah well. Anything but another sunny, windless and weatherless winter!!

John mac

Im with Mike on this one.
wet and windy ..

NIALL D

nahhh , they will be feet of snow country wide :D

Samba

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/environment/climate-news/severe-weather-warning-issued-for-winter-2011-12/20748.html

A UK-based long range weather forecaster has issued a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012. The advisory has been issued following one of the coldest winters experienced in Ireland and Britain more than 45 years.
James Madden from weather organisation Exacta Weather correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years, and is once again forecasting record breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures during November, December and January.
One of Madden’s primary methods of analysing long range weather conditions is his analysis of solar cycles. Last week Irish Weather Online carried a story from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) stating that a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles are signs that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years.
Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results: “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.
National newspapers, including the Irish Independent and Irish Times, subsequently carried stories warning that a decrease in solar activity will bring Arctic Winters to Ireland and Britain over the coming decades.
Commenting on the solar cycle, James Madden said: “Periods of low solar activity at present and what we have seen in recent years influence the Earth’s atmosphere by allowing the stratosphere to cool. This has a somewhat more profound effect over Northern Europe and the UK in terms of colder and snowier winters, due to jet stream patterns that block warm air from reaching us and create more moisture.”
“Although sunspot activity has increased somewhat this year and there has been an increase in solar flare activity, the activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be like during a solar maximum and in terms of frequency. Periods of low solar activity such as this have future repercussions of low solar activity in future cycles and produce extra cloud cover that reflects sunlight with a cooling influence on Earth. The lack of major sunspots and solar flares clearly indicate a slower conveyor belt within the sun. We are now in a very weak solar maximum and my observations indicate that the next solar cycle will also be weak”, he added.
Commenting on La Nina and the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift and their effect on our weather, Mr. Madden stated: “It is visible to see from recent NOAA satellite images that the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift has drastically altered within the last few years. The Gulf Stream is basically a huge volume of heated water that brings warmth to the UK in terms of a mild atmosphere. This softens the climate we experience for the latitude we lie on. For example let’s take Newfoundland who lie on a similar latitude to the UK, yet they experience much harsher winters as they do not benefit from this valuable heat source.
“La Niña is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator and influences changes to atmospheric pressure and wind changes. In terms of the UK this makes the jet streams in the North Atlantic stronger and therefore offers more precipitation in the form of widespread heavy snowfall during below average temperatures as cold easterlies dominate”, he explained.
Mr. Madden also said that the dust and ash particles released by the recent volcanic eruption in Iceland and Chile would also contribute to cooling down of global temperatures. He continued: “Converted sulphur dioxide emissions from volcanic eruptions can also cause sunlight reflection in the atmosphere. “
He said he expected the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of the coming winter.
“It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and raising awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people of society”, Mr. Madden concluded.

I'm all for snow and a few storms thrown in but not these prolonged cold snaps in recent Winters, let's not forget the mayhem it caused last year.

4gun

weather coming mainly for north west so this winter will be bitter. not necessary a lot of frost more of a wind chill thingy lots of that crappy slushy type snow that wont stay on the ground long..in the south

not based on anything more than a guess

Strangegravy

All I know is that in my year or so of following the weather a bit closer, it was more fun for me following the weather charts looking for a building Greenland High, rather than a north moving Azores High..

But the biggest reason I'm dead curious to find out what the weather is going to be like this winter, regardless of snow or wet and storms, is that nature itself seems all out of whack!

Talking to experienced gardeners, everything growing is about six weeks behind where it should be. Could be still feeling the effects of the last cold spell, but I can't wait to see if it's telling us anything about the coming winter. And now there's signs in nature of Autumn kicking in early, it's crazy... but will we get a last warm spell to shake everything up again??

Personally, shore fishing for mackerel off the coast of Clare around this time, would normally see hundreds of fish caught in an hour, but this year it was ten or twenty between 10 or more people, some actually catching none, which I've never seen in my 20 odd years of angling. The sea water seems colder this year than ever before. (True it could be over-fishing in the North Sea but we were catching them quite plentiful in the Shannon estuary, which was rare in itself.)

Whether it's snow or storms or long, freezing highs, I just hope Mother Nature gives us a good show this winter!!

shannon_tek

Bring it on

snowstreams

Strangegravy wrote: »

...
Personally, shore fishing for mackerel off the coast of Clare around this time, would normally see hundreds of fish caught in an hour, but this year it was ten or twenty between 10 or more people, some actually catching none, which I've never seen in my 20 odd years of angling. The sea water seems colder this year than ever before. (True it could be over-fishing in the North Sea but we were catching them quite plentiful in the Shannon estuary, which was rare in itself.)
...

I heard that the mackerel have moved further north in the last few years due to warmer water, and now the icelanders and faroese fish them, and really over fish them. So maybe thats having an impact on us here?
Otherwise you would think the colder water would bring the mackerel back down south to Ireland and england where they normally used to go?

Check this link out: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-11062674

BEASTERLY

Strangegravy wrote: »

Personally, shore fishing for mackerel off the coast of Clare around this time, would normally see hundreds of fish caught in an hour, but this year it was ten or twenty between 10 or more people, some actually catching none, which I've never seen in my 20 odd years of angling. The sea water seems colder this year than ever before. (True it could be over-fishing in the North Sea but we were catching them quite plentiful in the Shannon estuary, which was rare in itself.)

Well looking at the sst anomaly maps, the waters around Ireland are actually bang on average. I know zero about fish so maybe somebody else could explain.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well looking at the sst anomaly maps, the waters around Ireland are actually bang on average. I know zero about fish so maybe somebody else could explain.

They are nice with chips :pac:

Godge

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well looking at the sst anomaly maps, the waters around Ireland are actually bang on average. I know zero about fish so maybe somebody else could explain.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/


Not an expert, and maybe wrong chart but to me looking at the chart at the bottom of the page on that link shows that while sea surface temperatures around Ireland were above normal in May at the start of the sequence, they are now running between 1 and 2 degrees below normal to the west and south-west of Ireland. If that is right and the trend continued, that could signify a colder than average winter.

odyboody

Because of its large debt Iceland has sold the fishing rights for mackerel to the Faroe Islands and Russia. Their factory ships have been hoovering up thousands of tonnes a day. The fish are not in great condition when up around Iceland so are not good for eating. They are being harvested for fish meal.:(
This all means there are fewer fish to make the migration. The EU fisheries policy is really being shown up as useless as the big damage to fish stocks is happening outside the EU waters.:mad:

Scholesy1981

I hope Ken Ring is a registered user of Boards.ie, this could get interesting
:pac:

Discodog

Even on a weather forum I am amazed that people want a cold snowy winter. The economic effects would be horrendous. There are already thousands of people who are in arrears with their energy bills. Another cold winter could result in people being cut off with no way of heating their homes.

John mac

Scholesy1981 wrote: »

I hope Ken Ring is a registered user of Boards.ie, this could get interesting
:pac:

he is .