Who thinks winter 2011/2012 will be even colder than the last 2?

Strangegravy · 10-08-2011 10:13pm

Looks like the fish thing could be a number of different circumstances coming together then.

Even on a weather forum I am amazed that people want a cold snowy winter. The economic effects would be horrendous. There are already thousands of people who are in arrears with their energy bills. Another cold winter could result in people being cut off with no way of heating their homes.

Not being funny but even during an average Irish winter, it's generally still cold enough to have the heat on every morning, evening etc, isn't it?

I didn't do anything different with the heating during those extra cold days last winter and those "standard" cold, wet miserable Irish winter days we get anyway. The heating went on in the morning for an hour or so, then again in the evening for a couple hours, same way it does in my house most days from roughly Oct to March every year.

Whether it's cold and snowy or cold and wet, I think you're going to have higher energy bills in winter either way, as mild in winter in Ireland is still not actually mild in the summer sense of the word!

fizzycyst · 10-08-2011 11:15pm

Strangegravy wrote: »

Looks like the fish thing could be a number of different circumstances coming together then.

Not being funny but even during an average Irish winter, it's generally still cold enough to have the heat on every morning, evening etc, isn't it?

I didn't do anything different with the heating during those extra cold days last winter and those "standard" cold, wet miserable Irish winter days we get anyway. The heating went on in the morning for an hour or so, then again in the evening for a couple hours, same way it does in my house most days from roughly Oct to March every year.

Whether it's cold and snowy or cold and wet, I think you're going to have higher energy bills in winter either way, as mild in winter in Ireland is still not actually mild in the summer sense of the word!

I kind of agree with you, it's blankets and jumpers all the way for me! it was fine last year anyway. But for the old and infirm it's different, they need to have their heat on....a lot.

So hopefully bord gais will lower their rates for the elderly, then we can look forward to a nice COLD winter where the four horse men of the apocalypse come riding out of an arctic hell to wreak havoc on this wonderful country!

4gun · 10-08-2011 11:23pm

Strangegravy wrote: »

Looks like the fish thing could be a number of different circumstances coming together then.

Not being funny but even during an average Irish winter, it's generally still cold enough to have the heat on every morning, evening etc, isn't it?

I didn't do anything different with the heating during those extra cold days last winter and those "standard" cold, wet miserable Irish winter days we get anyway. The heating went on in the morning for an hour or so, then again in the evening for a couple hours, same way it does in my house most days from roughly Oct to March every year.

Whether it's cold and snowy or cold and wet, I think you're going to have higher energy bills in winter either way, as mild in winter in Ireland is still not actually mild in the summer sense of the word!

that could mean your house is very well Insulated...like mine, point the other chap was making that some people will have to spend more on heating that normal,person i know claimed she that she spent as much on oil for last december and january alone that she normally would for the whole winter due to the fact that the house she is renting has poor insulation

Discodog · 10-08-2011 11:49pm

MABS will tell you that utility heating bills were huge last Winter. It takes a great deal more energy to maintain a reasonable temperature when it's -10c outside unless your home is well insulated. If you then add in all the costs due to transport problems etc a cold winter will be a nightmare.

john t · 10-08-2011 11:58pm

Bring on another snow filled white winter, we all love it its what winter is all about...

snowstreams · 11-08-2011 12:48am

I had my storage heater in my apartment on for the entire cold spell last year, and it was still freezing in my apartment. It was so cold that there was even sheets of ice on the inside of the entrance door!
I'd put up with it again for the amazing winter we had.

fizzycyst · 11-08-2011 1:08am

snowstreams wrote: »

I had my storage heater in my apartment on for the entire cold spell last year, and it was still freezing in my apartment. It was so cold that there was even sheets of ice on the inside of the entrance door!
I'd put up with it again for the amazing winter we had.

Seriously? that's pretty bad. I have a fairly well insulated house and I STILL felt the cold. But honestly,no matter how cold it is, if you're inside and have plenty of layers it shouldn't be too bad, just my opinion.

snowstreams · 11-08-2011 1:35am

Yeah, I just wore plenty of clothes and drank lots of hot tea.
I had to knock the chunk of frozen condensation ice off the door each morning to get it open. Though it was -15 outside.
My apartment is in a block that is mostly empty, so that's probably why it was so cold. But it is very badly insulated for a new building.

Doublechinlolz · 11-08-2011 1:52am

This thread makes me happy and exited

Pigeon Reaper · 11-08-2011 10:43am

We didn't get coast guard call outs during the cold spell as people weren't out on the water in the cold. Civil Defence gave great help in transporting patients to hospital and general logisitics. They really came into their own for the few weeks and alot of the lads collapsed afterwards as they had been working for so long without a rest.

The best fun was putting ice tyres onto my mountain bike and commuting in -17 one morning at 7am. Fantastic experience once you have the correct gear.

This year the CD have some more multi-wheel drive vechicles and they have the experience to cope better. County councils have also stocked up more grit but this won't last with a protracted cold spell.

With luck people will have decent shoes and clothes for the winter too so they don't fall as much. Also drivers may have learnt the art of driving in snow and won't panic as easily as previous years.

I don't put much faith into long term forecasts as they haven't been around long enough to be proven. However I'll take the cold anyday over the damp windy weather we normally get.

Pangea · 11-08-2011 10:57am

Thread is a bit dry without a poll.

bb1234567 · 11-08-2011 11:09am

Pangea wrote: »

Thread is a bit dry without a poll.

Can you tell me how to make poll? and I'll do it:)

bb1234567 · 11-08-2011 11:15am

There I made the poll, sorry I mispelt freezing twice for some reason :rolleyes:

weisses · 11-08-2011 11:26am

This is a dangerous thread .... ME probably use this to make their winter forecast

Strangegravy · 11-08-2011 11:35am

Points taken. Older houses not set up for the cold and the older generation might find it tougher, although some of the older people I know might disagree with me, some are fantastically tough as nails!

If these harsher winters did become the norm, then proper support would be needed to help the more vulnerable in our society to adapt, but that's another long debate!

A lot of it is about heat management isn't it, I was sitting there last winter and if I did feel cold I'd automatically say put the heat back on, the wife would look at me and say, "Am, that's because you're sitting there in a light t-shirt, it is winter you know, go put on a jumper or a cardigan!"

In my opinion, I think it simply comes down to whether you're a winter person or not. How you define a "winter person" I'm not sure exactly, but if you like the good things about winter, you'll put up with or work around about the bad things, if you're not a winter person, the bad things seem multiplied tenfold, and it's very hard to draw any joy from the good things... to each their own of course and I respect that, but I know which camp I'm in!

bb1234567 · 11-08-2011 12:28pm

vote on what you actually think this winter will be like! not what you want it to be like!i bet most of you who are saying you think this winter will be mild just want it to be mild but you actually do think it could be cold. what reason is there for it to be mild. the last 4 winters in uk and ireland have gotten progressively worse so why wouldnt next year be the same, and with so many forecasters predicting cold weather next winter and cus of jet stream,low solar activity one would think there is definitely a higher chance of a cold winter next year! I genuinely beleive that next winter will be worse than the last and ill be seriously depressed if i dont see A LOT OF SNOW:D

mp22 · 11-08-2011 12:35pm

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/ireland-warned-to-brace-for-third-severe-winter-163829.html

Strangegravy · 11-08-2011 12:56pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

vote on what you actually think this winter will be like! not what you want it to be like!i bet most of you who are saying you think this winter will be mild just want it to be mild but you actually do think it could be cold. what reason is there for it to be mild. the last 4 winters in uk and ireland have gotten progressively worse so why wouldnt next year be the same, and with so many forecasters predicting cold weather next winter and cus of jet stream,low solar activity one would think there is definitely a higher chance of a cold winter next year! I genuinely beleive that next winter will be worse than the last and ill be seriously depressed if i dont see A LOT OF SNOW:D

Ha, ha.. I love your optimism, but even the Maunder and Dalton minimums had some milder winters! We just have to remember that nothing is a given, and even though signs might point towards a colder set up, it equally wouldn't totally surprise me if it there was a massive heatwave over the Christmas holidays and we were all outside on sun loungers sipping pina coladas with our turkey dinners!

Weather can be crazy and unpredictable, and sometimes when it looks like it'll definitely swing one way, it goes the other... but that's what I love about it!

Iancar29 · 11-08-2011 2:19pm

I just cant wait for CONSTANT SNOW WATCH on radar and what not ... asking everyone what temps and dew points it is and what not !

This was taken on the first day of the snow in November .

..... " ALERT:" ... Remember that one?! haha

149282_10150104941091718_631736717_8030913_3833091_n.jpg

bb1234567 · 11-08-2011 3:21pm

cool dog

, a husky right?

Doublechinlolz · 11-08-2011 3:26pm

Would I be correct in saying, siberian husky? He's lovely

Iancar29 · 11-08-2011 3:42pm

BOTH WRONG! ... TUT TUT TUT.... Anyone that truly sees all my posts especially last winter they know that hes an Alaskan Malamute!

I think he can sense the snow coming... he always wants to go outside b4 it starts!

... ha

darkman2 · 11-08-2011 4:07pm

No reason atm to suspect a harsh winter is coming for the 3rd year in a row. It is impossible to forecast this far out. In fact going on probability alone that we would have a 3rd successively harshly cold Winter would mean it is highly unlikely. Still id have said the same about last Winter too. Worth remembering that from Christmas day throughout Jan and Feb it was mostly on the mild side and wet. I wonder will that trend simply continue. I think it might!

Remember this from last November

nacho libre · 11-08-2011 4:21pm

As has been said the stats' are against it. Also bear in mind some of those long range forecasters were indicating a heatwave for much of June, which didn't happen. The likes of Piers Corbyn has got much kudos of late, however there is little said about all the times he's been wrong in past years. That's the beauty of not being under the microscope all the time, you're feted for getting right, but not scrutinised to the same degree, as mainstream weather organisations, when you get it wrong . So as much as i'd love to believe long term forecasts, that might say we are going to be stuck in the freezer, you've got to have a bit of skepticism about them. It'll be a pity if we go back to temperatures of 3- 4 degrees being described as a very cold, with winters showers being forecasted for higher hills, but that's what could well happen this year.

patneve2 · 11-08-2011 4:27pm

nacho libre wrote: »

As has been said the stats' are against it. Also bear in mind some of those long range forecasters were indicating a heatwave for much of June, which didn't happen. The likes of Piers Corbyn has got much kudos of late, however there is little said about all the times he's been wrong in past years. That's the beauty of not being under the microscope all the time, you're feted for getting right, but not scrutinised to the same degree, as mainstream weather organisations, when you get it wrong . So as much as i'd love to believe long term forecasts, that might say we are going to be stuck in the freezer, you've got to have a bit of skepticism about them. It'll be a pity if we go back to temperatures of 3- 4 degrees being described as a very cold, with winters showers being forecasted for higher hills, but that's what could well happen this year.

Spot on post...I read LRFs but to take them seriously? Never. Better to follow the weather on a day by day basis

Iancar29 · 11-08-2011 4:38pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Remember this from last November

MEMORIES....:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Pangea · 11-08-2011 5:34pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Spot on post...I read LRFs but to take them seriously? Never. Better to follow the weather on a day by day basis

Aye Long range as in 6 months is a bit over the top but MTs winter forecast last year was pretty spot on.
Personally I think we have a good chance of getting another cold hard winter, just another gut feeling.

The world is pretty messed up weather wise and Im sure we will get very cold winters in the future. Our winds seem to come from the North a lot more than usual recently.

compsys · 11-08-2011 6:31pm

Well if the wind keeps coming from the North as often as it has for this whole summer then I think it's fair to say we're in for another bitterly cold winter. Whether that also equates to snow is another matter.

darkman2 · 11-08-2011 8:40pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

MEMORIES....:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-08-2011 9:03pm

Winter has begun!!! Darkman2 is here ! :pac::pac::pac:

thetonynator · 11-08-2011 10:05pm

Pangea wrote: »

Aye Long range as in 6 months is a bit over the top but MTs winter forecast last year was pretty spot on.
Personally I think we have a good chance of getting another cold hard winter, just another gut feeling. The world is pretty messed up weather wise and Im sure we will get very cold winters in the future. Our winds seem to come from the North a lot more than usual recently.

M.T. had the first 6 or 7 weeks of his forecast spot on, but after that it was fairly off. Even M.T. doesn't get long range ones right over 2 months!!!

John.Icy · 11-08-2011 10:17pm

thetonynator wrote: »

M.T. had the first 6 or 7 weeks of his forecast spot on, but after that it was fairly off. Even M.T. doesn't get long range ones right over 2 months!!!

I think every Long Range forecast was wrong after December...Nearly every single one went for the Mid-January Freeze, then it was the end of January, then the beginning/middle of Febuary and we ended up nothing. There may have been one LRF that didn't buy another cold spell after December, but I can't pick a name, otherwise, the Models were a b*tch to anyone who even tried to predict a pattern.

My answer to the thread? Will it be colder than 10/11? Overall for the duration of winter, I say yes. People brand last "winter" as cold, but on a whole it wasn't. The last week of Novemeber and most of December were brutally cold and snowy, but after that, yeah, I sadly didn't see another flake, barely another frost. Though, In terms of minimum temps, December '10 will be tough to beat.

Will it be colder than 09/10? I'm not sure, for the duration of that Winter, there was countless periods of snow, I believe in my log I reached nearly 20 days of snow falling or more, I can't remeber the specifics and I'm not rooting for it, (with more in March but that's not Winter.) It will be tough to beat that Winter in terms of Cold over each Winter Month.

I see this Winter either being spectacular, with similar snow events in terms of depths, or else, it will fail miserabley and we'll be saying hello to 2007 or so. I'll be looking for Northern blocking to be returning in October, similar to last year, once the signs are there that heights are able to rise up North, signs for Winter could be good.

derekon · 11-08-2011 10:21pm

darkman2 wrote: »

No reason atm to suspect a harsh winter is coming for the 3rd year in a row. It is impossible to forecast this far out. In fact going on probability alone that we would have a 3rd successively harshly cold Winter would mean it is highly unlikely. Still id have said the same about last Winter too. Worth remembering that from Christmas day throughout Jan and Feb it was mostly on the mild side and wet. I wonder will that trend simply continue. I think it might!

Remember this from last November

Hey Darkman,

Good to see you back on the boards - winter must be only around the corner now

During the winter , I find your posts some of the most entertaining and interesting so long may they continue!

However, I think you might be deliberately playing things down in the above post....we all know you are a snow monster like the vast majority of us!!

Pangea · 11-08-2011 10:32pm

thetonynator wrote: »

M.T. had the first 6 or 7 weeks of his forecast spot on, but after that it was fairly off. Even M.T. doesn't get long range ones right over 2 months!!!

To be fair, everyone was chasing a cold spell that was expected to come march but never materialised in the end.
His accuracy on the two/three big freezes were amazing though.

Harps · 11-08-2011 10:58pm

For those of us in the north, undoubtedly my favourite day of last winter!

I know nothing about how to make a long range forecast but simply going by probability its unlikely that we'll have another severely cold winter but then I thought the same of last winter and it proved unfounded. Nobody can do more than give an educated guess at this stage really

robbie_998 · 11-08-2011 11:06pm

Discodog wrote: »

MABS will tell you that utility heating bills were huge last Winter. It takes a great deal more energy to maintain a reasonable temperature when it's -10c outside unless your home is well insulated. If you then add in all the costs due to transport problems etc a cold winter will be a nightmare.

during the last winter we spent our time in an apartment in clondalkin in the middle of the snow and all and the apartment had no heating at all because your man was a cheap skate but we were still able to walk around in just t-shirts and slacks not a bother.... i remember christmas week there were 4 of us sitting in the living room and we actually opened the door to the balcony cos it was a bit warm :pac:

anyway i cant fecking wait for the snow

i was actually on youtube the other day looking at all the videos from last year and the start of this year and im soo excited now

nacho libre · 11-08-2011 11:15pm

Ah yes what a truly memorable day that was. Normally in those situations Scotland is in the path of the shower train. That time much of Scotland and Irish counties, such as Monaghan and Cavan, seemed to miss out on most of the showers.
It will likely be a long time before we see as epic a winter day again on this side of the country.

cue senor pangea bringing up that last sentence next Winter, when we're in the middle of snow nirvana :pac:

Pangea · 11-08-2011 11:58pm

nacho libre wrote: »

cue senor pangea bringing up that last sentence next Winter, when we're in the middle of snow nirvana :pac:

lol Don't worry I will :pac:

Calibos · 12-08-2011 12:18am

Speaking of Shower trains or tracks I just hope this and variations of it doesn't happen to Bray again this year

IIRC Bray had an hour or two of decent snowfall 2 or 3 times during the hole 5 week period. The fact that we accumulated at most 4-5 inches down the seafront was down to temps and the slow thaw in the intervening periods. Its a long time since we even got that and while I did appreciate it, I couldn't help but feel robbed. That 5 inches from those few showers merely showed the accumulation potential had we not been in the gaps between streamers, IOM shadow, Anglesey Shadow from the depression pictured above or the Wicklow/Dublin Mountain shadow for the frontal snow from the west.

Doublechinlolz · 12-08-2011 1:00am

The thought of 'mild and wet' is depressing

Snow sounds grand though, i reckon we'll get what we want lads

eskimocat · 12-08-2011 10:18am

Looking back with rose tinted glasses to my childhood, I seem to remember (genereally speaking of course) winter after winter of snow and sleat, then it changed to rain and wind for a few years, then back to snow and sleat then back to wind and rain.Repeat...

Add in the odd storm, shuffle about the months for snow and hey presto Winter. To my totally unscientific and perhaps largely biased mind, I think we will get one more shot at snow and sleet. I wouldn't be surprised if its not quite up to par with last years snow but snow all the same.

There I have said it, now let it be so....

:D:D

darkman2 · 12-08-2011 12:44pm

compsys wrote: »

Well if the wind keeps coming from the North as often as it has for this whole summer then I think it's fair to say we're in for another bitterly cold winter. Whether that also equates to snow is another matter.

You really need a sharp prolonged Northeasterly flow for the type of Winters we have just seen and a generous cold pool of air at the source. Problem with Northerlies is that because they travel over open water the air mass gets modified to a slightly less inclement Polar Maritime. Complete opposite with a land based Easterly flow which brings bitterly cold dry air from the continent. It's not great for inland snow but coastal counties get hammered. Also it's very good if an Atlantic system comes up against it and can give monster snowfalls - like 1982.

Min · 12-08-2011 12:45pm

I don't know, even in mild and wet winters we get snow here, it really is just a question of how much snow we get and I haven't a clue.

lucy2010 · 12-08-2011 12:46pm

Calibos wrote: »

Speaking of Shower trains or tracks I just hope this and variations of it doesn't happen to Bray again this year

IIRC Bray had an hour or two of decent snowfall 2 or 3 times during the hole 5 week period. The fact that we accumulated at most 4-5 inches down the seafront was down to temps and the slow thaw in the intervening periods. Its a long time since we even got that and while I did appreciate it, I couldn't help but feel robbed. That 5 inches from those few showers merely showed the accumulation potential had we not been in the gaps between streamers, IOM shadow, Anglesey Shadow from the depression pictured above or the Wicklow/Dublin Mountain shadow for the frontal snow from the west.

Calibos you keep saying that - Your corner on the side of Bray Head didnt get it but the rest of the town did. It started 25th November & my youngest had 1 day in school entire month of December !. So IMO thats bad. Herbert road was closed for a week as it was under 8 inches of snow & ice compacted. . So from a Bray town point of view we got our fill !

Mental Mickey · 12-08-2011 12:47pm

I don't want f***ing snow again.

eskimocat · 12-08-2011 4:04pm

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I don't want f***ing snow again.

Any chance the above word is "fleeting" snow?????:D

Calibos · 12-08-2011 4:17pm

lucy2010 wrote: »

Calibos you keep saying that - Your corner on the side of Bray Head didnt get it but the rest of the town did. It started 25th November & my youngest had 1 day in school entire month of December !. So IMO thats bad. Herbert road was closed for a week as it was under 8 inches of snow & ice compacted. . So from a Bray town point of view we got our fill !

Oh, I'm alright jack. I got 9 inches west of the mainstreet!

:D We had a full thaw on the seafront first week of December and had to start all over again from scratch!!

Look Lucy. If I want to be a big baby and be jealous of Carrigmines 2 minutes up the M50 with their 2"+ of snow or think the world revolves around me and that anything not within a square mile of me doesn't count, or act the spoilt child because the sand on the beach 'only' got 5 inches....well thats my perogative OK!

Its not like the roads could have been more closed than they were or the footpaths any slippier. Its not like 2ft of snow would have made life any more difficult than it already was with 5....but it sure would have been even cooler to see.......and I wouldn't have been as jealous of areas literally 5 minutes up and down the road.

:D

Doublechinlolz · 12-08-2011 4:34pm

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I don't want f***ing snow again.

:O
Out! Out out out!

mp22 · 12-08-2011 5:35pm

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I don't want f***ing snow again.

probaly meant freezing snow:p

oisingeogho · 12-08-2011 9:39pm

ill take just 3 or 4 feet.

Who thinks winter 2011/2012 will be even colder than the last 2?

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