New Dail / New Taoiseach

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Yeah I can see the benefits from a procedural sense. But in actions I can't see them agreeing. How will it be possible to "play nice" if they have totally different plans for the country?

What happens when inevitably the parties involve try to hijack the situation and use the "emergency" excuse to push through their normal policies that other parties might disagree with? Like I said, say one party demands the rent freeze last for years? Or normal jobseekers to be moved up to €350 a week?

Obviously, a party would only do that if its objective was to crash the national government. And no national government can possibly work if the parties don't want it to. So the question is, is it possible to devise a feasible plan for a national government, assuming the major parties actually want one?

The UK had a national government from 1939-1945. It worked on the basis that the parties would support everything necessary to fight and win the war and all other agendas would be deferred until after the war. You could use your position in government to research, to plan, to debate - but nothing would actually be implemented until after the first postwar general election. So for instance the Beveridge Report, laying the groundwork for what we now know as the UK's national insurance system and National Health Service, was produced in 1942 (by Liberal ministers, interestingly, not Labour) but nothing was done to implement it - and there was no commitment to implement it - until Labour won the 1945 general election.

Something similar would have to happen here. Parties who haven't won an election (and none of them have) who are brought into government to fight the coronavirus would have to accept that they are being brought into government only to fight the coronavirus, and that they had no mandate to use their position in government to advance any other policy or agenda.

zell12 wrote: »

Leo is probably wishing he had not called an election for February.
If he'd done so this summer, FG would win a landslide, as the electorate would've forgotten the A&E trolley saga, swing-gate, homelessness, various garda scandals, climate issues, etc. Leo the medic would look like a hero

He had to. They had lost a workable majority in the Dail

Phoebas wrote: »

That's a very optimistic view; I'd be very doubtful that this thing will be nearly sorted by the summer or that when it is sorted we'll be in a congratulatory mood.

No. But in fact Leo has already had a fillip in the polls, up to 34%, mostly at the expense of FF.

This isn't unusual in a democracy facing crisis, if the government makes even half a fist of providing leadership. But polls boosts like this tend not to last very long. George Bush Snr got a substantial boost in the polls as a result of the first Gulf War (1990-91) but went on to lose the 1992 election to Bill Clinton.

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. But in fact Leo has already had a fillip in the polls, up to 34%, mostly at the expense of FF.

This isn't unusual in a democracy facing crisis, if the government makes even half a fist of providing leadership. But polls boosts like this tend not to last very long. George Bush Snr got a substantial boost in the polls as a result of the first Gulf War (1990-91) but went on to lose the 1992 election to Bill Clinton.

Exactly. FG are deservedly getting a boost because of how well they've handled it, but because this is directly related to how they've handled it, it won't last, they'll go back to low to mid-20s shortly after it is over.

As we saw with Brexit, eaten bread is very quickly forgotten, especially as the next five years there's going to be no money, and now more than ever do we need good economic management (which inevitably involves saying 'no' to every vested interest out there). They'll be back to the 21% they got in the General Election by the end of the year without a doubt. I don't think even sorting out housing (which ironically will be a lot easier because of how many people will have lost their jobs - and even when we do get back to normal, people will think and act differently when they've realised just how many things we thought were necessary really are not necessary) will boost their popularity, although I suppose it can't make them any more unpopular.

Runaways wrote: »

Just on the job losses. Are we going to see a whole new wave of banks repossessing houses after this?
Shouldn’t that have been one of the things the finance minister took the banks to task over in his meeting with them?

Surely the fact that there's a 3 month mortgage holiday (for those who need it) is an example of the Finance Minister trying to prevent exactly what you've described above from happening?

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. But in fact Leo has already had a fillip in the polls, up to 34%, mostly at the expense of FF.

This isn't unusual in a democracy facing crisis, if the government makes even half a fist of providing leadership. But polls boosts like this tend not to last very long. George Bush Snr got a substantial boost in the polls as a result of the first Gulf War (1990-91) but went on to lose the 1992 election to Bill Clinton.

I'd predict this will go one of three ways:
1. We get off lightly and it'll take no time at all for the opposition to start berating the government for imposing Draconian restrictions and wrecking the economy.
2. It turns into a complete shìtshow and the government will get the blame for not being ready.
3. This goes on and on for a year or more with rolling restrictions and nobody is going to thank the government for that.

Any way it goes, I can't see the government coming out of it well.
If I look back to the financial crisis for a template, the parties that got us through that bore more of the blame than the party that arguably caused the depth of our problems.

tobsey wrote: »

SF went massively further in their promises for extra public spending. €25bn over five years while also cutting taxes. Without the pandemic or any even minor blip it was completely unsustainable. Other parties budgeted on the basis of the economy to continue to grow so they did promise extras, but not near as much.

Oh I agree. Their promises were ridiculous especially the abolition of the Property Tax.

But the use of the term populist is meant now as a term of abuse when political parties have always made ridiculous promises. It's the kind of lazy one word headline we get now in politics.

hotmail.com wrote: »

I heard during the week that a pre condition of government formation is to keep Leo as Taoiseach.

The latest poll will bolster that idea.

What that means for Michael Martin. It's going to be difficult for FF to mount a leadership challenge during this emergency.

No one else should be Taoiseach. He had done a wonderful job, his handling of the Coronavirus has upped his status amongst voters. If no government is formed, bring on an election. FG will have an upper hand this time!

Runaways wrote: »

Just on the job losses. Are we going to see a whole new wave of banks repossessing houses after this?

When was the first wave of repossessions? I must have missed that

hotmail.com wrote: »

I heard during the week that a pre condition of government formation is to keep Leo as Taoiseach.

The latest poll will bolster that idea.

What that means for Michael Martin. It's going to be difficult for FF to mount a leadership challenge during this emergency.

I would imagine any negotiations are based on a government to run its full term. If so then it most likely will be on the basis of a rotating Taoiseach with possibly Varadkar getting first shot at it, followed by Martin. I cannot really see why FF would agree to anything other than that.

Runaways wrote: »

Just on the job losses. Are we going to see a whole new wave of banks repossessing houses after this?
Shouldn’t that have been one of the things the finance minister took the banks to task over in his meeting with them?

Unlikely as lending rates even thought other wanted them relaxed were fairly strictly kept to 3.5 times wages. Remember all the cries about relaxing lending rules with deposit rules and lending rules regarding investment properties we are in a totally different situation compared to 2009

hotmail.com wrote: »

This scenario could split the FF party.

I wouldn`t see there would be any more or less possibility of it splitting FF than there would be of it being the same for FG.
Less possibility perhaps as FF since the GE results were known were keen to form a government, while many in FG wished to go into opposition.


If FF are not in government there would be more likelihood of a split imho.

Runaways wrote: »

Are we going to see a wave of repossessions after this?

No.

The mortgage arrears process is so slow in Ireland that there will never be a wave of repossessions.