The Frankel Foals Watch Thread!

The Tetrarch · 19-09-2019 9:27am

Deleted User wrote: »

The ignorance in this group is absolutely laughable.

To enlighten people I post a table from an article by John Boyce "Dt Statz" in the May 2018 edition of Thoroughbred Owner Breeder.
(owned jointly by the Racehorse Owners Association and Thoroughbred Breeders' Association.)

This table is for sires with 100+ runners.
At the time of the article Frankel had 133 runners, Galileo 1,457 runners.

"The dams of Frankel runners currently produce black-type winners at the rate of 22.8%, which gives Frankel a deficit of seven percentage points to claw back.
But there has to be common sense applied here.
He's a young sire who has covered more black-type producers in his first three years than most sires do in a lifetime.
We know that over time a mare's ability to produce her best drops off as she gets older."

%BTW - percentage of black-type winners by the sire
%MOR - percentage of black-type winners by the mare's other runners

Sire %BTW %MOR +/-
Speed sires
Pivotal 11.3 7.5 3.8
Oasis Dream 10.9 12.2 -1.3
Invincible Spirit 8.3 8.0 0.3
Dark Angel 7.2 5.1 2.1
Exceed And Excel 7.0 7.5 -0.5
.
Intermediate Sires %BTW %MOR +/-
Dubawi 15.8 11.3 4.5
Frankel 15.8 22.8 -7.0
Dansili 12.1 11.1 1.0
Lope de Vega 10.7 8.9 1.8
Tamayuz 8.8 9.6 -0.8
.
Staying Sires %BTW %MOR +/-
Galileo 16.4 13.8 2.6
Sea The Stars 13.8 17.8 -4.0
Teofilo 10.0 8.5 1.5
Mastercraftsman 6.6 4.4 2.2
Beat Hollow 6.5 6.8 -0.3

To understand the charts look at Dubawi, 15.8% black-type winners to mares who produce 11.3% black-type winners +4.5%.
On the line below that for Frankel, 15.8% black-type winners to mares who produce 22.8% black-type winners -7.0%.

In simple language, those mares do better with other sires than the do with Frankel.
I would be interested in an update to see if Frankel has closed the 7.0% deficit, producing 15.8% black type to mares who produce 22.8% black type.

19-09-2019 10:05am

In May 2018 Frankel progeny consisted of three crops, actually 2 in practical reality because I doubt any of his 3rd crop of 2 year olds had hit the track.

Comparing the percentage of his progeny to have black type at any time in their career with a stallion who has multiple crops fully through their career at that point is obviously absurd.

If you want to compare like with like you need to take a time slice, not an all time figure for one established sire and one just starting out.

For example, in 2019 Dubawi has 29 BTW, which is 10.7% of all starters. Frankel has 15 at 9.04%.

Other comparisons (just the percentages, for some pricey sires) Galileo 11.2% STS 6.7%, Dark Angel 2.4%, Shamardal 5.7%, Invincible Spirit 4.1%

The Tetrarch · 19-09-2019 10:56am

I see. Facts don't work with Orinoco.
You want a time slice. How about foals born in the year 2018 who have not yet reached the racecourse?
These are the numbers of foals born to the top sires in 2018.
I excluded a few sires from the above chart as they had small numbers in 2018.
If you like you can add any GB/IRE sire you want to the list below.

Frankel ............. 146 foals
Galileo .............. 143
Sea The Stars .... 120
Lope de Vega ..... 95
Oasis Dream ....... 79
Invincible Spirit .... 73
Mastercraftsman ... 59

I will send you the sire name (as above) and the name of the dam of each of the above 715 foals.
You can identify those dams in the 715 who themselves won black-type and/or produced a black-type winner.

You want to compare like with like. I will give you the raw data.
Those horses were born in 2018 and have not run yet.
I can't tamper with the data. I can't select a slice of data to suit my point.

Those foals will reach the racecourse in 2020 as 2yos.
You can report to us here - black-type winner by sire against black-type dam by sire, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (i.e. 2yo, 3yo, 4yo, 5yo.)

19-09-2019 11:19am

Fascinating reading this thread back.

It's quite obvious that there's a significant number of posters desperately willing him to fail and putting the most negative possible slant on every success or failure.

Then there's good old tryfix applying reason and logic.

A few observations from me:

I agree with tryfix that his big, big negative is that apart from cracksman (and he went a bit off the rails himself) he hasn't really produced a single consistent top class horse. That's a high bar to be fair, there aren't many horses that reel off strings of G1s, but compare with STS who has Stradivarius, Crystal Ocean, Star Catcher just this season and I might be missing others.
On the other hand the numbers don't lie. He gets black type and group 1 winners at percentages that stand comparison with anyone although of course Galileo is a class apart when it comes to consistently producing G1 winners. He earns money around the world in keeping with his stud fee albeit the whole world of top level bloodstock appears to be completely bonkers
As tryfix has been saying for some time he seems to be a stamina influence more than anything. He seemed to have about half the Ebor field although they all ran like drains. I imagine he will have a few in big staying handicaps here and abroad on a regular basis hovering up the cash.
I also think the galileo comparison is unfair. Chances are there won't be another galileo and perhaps it would be a good thing if we lost our obsession with 'superstar sires'?

Two questions:

I notice AOB doesn't seem to have Frankels anymore or at least not in Coolmore ownership. Anyone know why? Would love to know what the story is there.
And the big question from reading back through the thread - what happened to Gloam!?! 4 million quid and the momentous decision to start buying Galileos again by godolphin. Since renamed and not seen a racecourse yet. It's a fickle game

19-09-2019 11:26am

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I see. Facts don't work with Orinoco.
You want a time slice. How about foals born in the year 2018 who have not yet reached the racecourse?
These are the numbers of foals born to the top sires in 2018.
I excluded a few sires from the above chart as they had small numbers in 2018.
If you like you can add any GB/IRE sire you want to the list below.

Frankel ............. 146 foals
Galileo .............. 143
Sea The Stars .... 120
Lope de Vega ..... 95
Oasis Dream ....... 79
Invincible Spirit .... 73
Mastercraftsman ... 59

I will send you the sire name (as above) and the name of the dam of each of the above 715 foals.
You can identify those dams in the 715 who themselves won black-type and/or produced a black-type winner.

You want to compare like with like. I will give you the raw data.
Those horses were born in 2018 and have not run yet.
I can't tamper with the data. I can't select a slice of data to suit my point.

Those foals will reach the racecourse in 2020 as 2yos.
You can report to us here - black-type winner by sire against black-type dam by sire, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (i.e. 2yo, 3yo, 4yo, 5yo.)

Facts do work on me.

But if you don't understand why the facts you shared in your last email are obviously structurally unsound there is no talking to you.

The facts that owners, trainers and breeders look at are earnings, black type wins, group wins etc etc.

That is why Frankel's fee went up and why his yearlings still fetch good prices.

Apparently you want to ignore ALL those stats and instead rely on weird partial bits of 'analysis' that are obviously structurally flawed or when that doesn't work spout truly bonkers opinion like "any other sire of a st leger winner would be consigned to the NH ranks" or whatever it was. To be fair that one is still giving me a good laugh so I don't hold it against you.

However the analysis you propose above sounds absolutely fine, do keep me posted.

The Tetrarch · 19-09-2019 11:46am

Deleted User wrote: »

However the analysis you propose above sounds absolutely fine, do keep me posted.

As I said above
I will send you the sire name (as above) and the name of the dam of each of the above 715 foals.
You can identify those dams in the 715 who themselves won black-type and/or produced a black-type winner.

You can have the list of dams in the post, or in an e-mail, your choice.

The Tetrarch · 19-09-2019 11:54am

Deleted User wrote: »

But if you don't understand why the facts you shared in your last email are obviously structurally unsound there is no talking to you.

In case readers of the forum are wondering there was no e-mail.
Criticizing my last e-mail might sound like we are in correspondance outside this forum and you are refuting data in an e-mail.

19-09-2019 11:59am

The Tetrarch wrote: »

As I said above
I will send you the sire name (as above) and the name of the dam of each of the above 715 foals.
You can identify those dams in the 715 who themselves won black-type and/or produced a black-type winner.

You can have the list of dams in the post, or in an e-mail, your choice.

Oh you are actually serious.

LOL

I tell you what why don't you do a quick piece of research for me first and tell me the sires who ended their career by siring a St Leger winner?

For all the books, and all the numbers, and all the lectures, you literally know nothing about racing. It's hilarious.

19-09-2019 12:01pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

In case readers of the forum are wondering there was no e-mail.
Criticizing my last e-mail might sound like we are in correspondance outside this forum and you are refuting data in an e-mail.

Well spotted.

I am refuting the data in your post, not an email. My bad.

Just as a fun experiment can you explain in your own words why it is unsound? Do you actually understand that? I don't think you do.

The Tetrarch · 19-09-2019 12:51pm

Deleted User wrote: »

That is why Frankel's fee went up and why his yearlings still fetch good prices.

Frankel Filly Sets New Irish Record
Frankel (GB) filly out of Finsceal Beo (Ire) (Mr. Greeley), the most expensive foal to sell in Ireland at €1,800,000.
Finsceal Beo won the English 1000 Guineas and the Irish 1000 Guineas.

La Figlia by Frankel out of Finscael Beo ran seven times.
She won her fifth race at Chelmsford.
She was 4th, 4th, 7th, 9th (of 9) in Listed races.
She was 7th of 7 in her one Group race, a Group 3.
Cost Euro 1,800,000, Earnings GBP 13,767

..................................................................................................

First Frankel foal sold for £1.15m by Goffs at Kensington Palace auction
At Your Service (2014) G by Frankel out of Crystal Gaze
11 runs, 1 win (at Chelmsford), 2 2nd.
Cost GBP 1,150,000, Earnings GBP 12,705

..................................................................................................

Let's look at the four Frankel foals offered for sale at the Tattersalls December Foal Sale 2014, Newmarket

1. Frankel/Red Bloom was withdrawn
He lived up to his name, Simply Brilliant (2014) G by Frankel out of Red Bloom had earnings of GBP 978,633, almost all in Hong Kong where he had 5 wins in 17 races.
He ran 5 times in the UK, 1,1,7,5,6, earnings GBP 10k, then ran 22 races in Hong Kong.

2. Sold for 150,000 guineas. (GBP 157,500)
Harba (2014) F by Frankel out of Kirinda earned GBP 14,782
He had 9 runs, 3 wins in class 5 races.

3. Sold for 350,000 guineas (GBP 367,500)
Swiss Storm (2014) G by Frankel out of Swiss Lake earned GBP 19,189
He had 2 wins from 12 races.

4. Sold for 200,000 guineas (GBP 210,000)
Atty Persse (2014) G by Frankel out of Dorcas Lane earned GBP 102,772
3 wins from 13 starts, the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot (GBP 56,025) the highlight.

I think I have stumbled on a system: back Frankel offspring running at Chelmsford.

IAMAMORON · 19-09-2019 1:17pm

He is overhyped and over priced at £ 175,000. If people want to throw their money away they are welcome to do so.

I have harped on about Mastercraftsman before, but given that he spent most of his 3 year old racing career staring at Sea the Stars arse, I think he did remarkably well. He covers for €30 k or £27 k. You can cover 7 mares for the price of one Frankel.

He won 4 group 1's Phoenix, National Stakes, Irish Guineas and the St James Palace. Not bad considering what he beat.

His progeny include,

Alpha Centauri, Kington Hill, The Grey Gatsby, Amazing Maria all Group 1 winners. He has had winners in Australia, France and the US. He is also proving to have winners at all levels and under National Hunt rules.

His biggest obstacle to greatness has no doubt been his proximity to Sea the Stars, every mare in the universe was sent to Sea the Stars in his first year, Mastercraftsman was left to pick up the crumbs. His record is considerable when seen in this light. The fact that Frankel got the best of mares and still has not hit the ground running would be a problem for me.

It all goes back to the Brits if I am shooting from the hip. The fact remains that Ireland has the best stallions and they cannot stand it. Even Frankel's Daddy is Irish. They have never given our best racehorses the credit they deserve, they even rate Frankel a half a stone better than Sea the Stars, pure rubbish. They overhype their own all the time, Frankel for me is in this category.

It remains to be seen, but in 10 or 15 years this argument will be over. I reckon the results will be seen to greatest effect when we see how the broods have faired with other sires, I have no doubt this will emphasise my argument further.

19-09-2019 1:18pm

When you start going looking for individual foals or yearlings who cost a lot and failed to earn money on the track it's a sign you really have lost whatever semblance of an argument you ever had.

You do realise that there are actual statistics for earnings per starter available? Rather than anecdotes? Shall we look at those numbers for 2018?

Frankel $66,151
Dubawi $65,873
Galileo $52,871
Sea The Stars $49,473

etc etc.

Frankel actually tops that stat for EU sires funnily enough, so it's downhill all the way from there. But don't tell me, he gets great mares not like Galileo or Dubawi. LOL.

I think at this point you run off and find some bizarre meaningless random stat or come out with some comical statement or other.

Why am I wasting my time with this cretinous conversation?

19-09-2019 1:51pm

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/234946/apex-ratings-better-version-of-average-earnings-index

Another method of analysis that has Frankel on top (globally!)

For anyone not familiar with APEX ratings the general gist is figure out what % of a horses progeny are actually any good. It 'smooths out' lumpy results (particularly in terms of some of the very rich global races these days) that can distort measuring by prize money.

It's not perfect but it's better than:

Asserting a sire is overhyped with zero data
Finding random yearlings who were expensive and never delivered much on the track
Claiming that siring a Leger winner is a negative rather than a positive
blaming the brits

Anyway I'm out. This conversation is doing my nut in.

BumperD · 19-09-2019 1:59pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Anyway I'm out.

Whoa it cannot be...no....is that you.....goat?

tryfix · 19-09-2019 2:52pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

He is overhyped and over priced at £ 175,000. If people want to throw their money away they are welcome to do so.

I have harped on about Mastercraftsman before, but given that he spent most of his 3 year old racing career staring at Sea the Stars arse, I think he did remarkably well. He covers for €30 k or £27 k. You can cover 7 mares for the price of one Frankel.

He won 4 group 1's Phoenix, National Stakes, Irish Guineas and the St James Palace. Not bad considering what he beat.

His progeny include,

Alpha Centauri, Kington Hill, The Grey Gatsby, Amazing Maria all Group 1 winners. He has had winners in Australia, France and the US. He is also proving to have winners at all levels and under National Hunt rules.

His biggest obstacle to greatness has no doubt been his proximity to Sea the Stars, every mare in the universe was sent to Sea the Stars in his first year, Mastercraftsman was left to pick up the crumbs. His record is considerable when seen in this light. The fact that Frankel got the best of mares and still has not hit the ground running would be a problem for me.

It all goes back to the Brits if I am shooting from the hip. The fact remains that Ireland has the best stallions and they cannot stand it. Even Frankel's Daddy is Irish. They have never given our best racehorses the credit they deserve, they even rate Frankel a half a stone better than Sea the Stars, pure rubbish. They overhype their own all the time, Frankel for me is in this category.

It remains to be seen, but in 10 or 15 years this argument will be over. I reckon the results will be seen to greatest effect when we see how the broods have faired with other sires, I have no doubt this will emphasise my argument further.

Mastercraftsman is a top drawer sire. As I see it the reason for his unfashionable price lies with Coolmore themselves who have a conveyor belt of Galileo mares heading to the already well subscribed War Front when they could be sending any amount of those choice bred fillies to the wonderful Mastercraftsman.

The Galileo x Danehill Dancer cross works very well, so why not the reverse? They just don't see him as a fashionable sire which is a terrible pity because he's beautifully bred on the dam side.

tryfix · 19-09-2019 3:17pm

Had a look at the Mastercraftsman x ( Galileo) nick. Only 5 winners from 16 runners isn't a great return but the Galileo mares sent to him were poor quality and many of the resultant foals are now only 2 or 3 years old. The cross gives middle distance stock and in a speed obsessed world that's not attractive.

IAMAMORON · 19-09-2019 3:57pm

tryfix wrote: »

Had a look at the Mastercraftsman x ( Galileo) nick. Only 5 winners from 16 runners isn't a great return but the Galileo mares sent to him were poor quality and many of the resultant foals are now only 2 or 3 years old. The cross gives middle distance stock and in a speed obsessed world that's not attractive.

He is simply not a very fashionable sire, hence the quality of mare being sent to him. It is all about the Danehill line for me.

It depends if you are breeding to sell or breeding to win horse races, I respect that these are interchangeable variables, but if you are a buyer with pockets which are 8 figures deep it can affect what the vendors are trying to do. I think a lot of mares get sent to Frankel and Galileo because they reckon they are achieving more at the sales, not necessarily the race course. Which is kind of ironic as the shrewd buy to race market is lapping up the leftovers.

I don't need a 5 or 6 figure colt by Frankel that wins a claimer at Lingfield, I would much prefer to spend wiser and buy a well bred Mastercraftsman that is going win its' maiden a maybe a few decent races.

The Tetrarch · 21-09-2019 7:55am

Quadrilateral by Frankel won a fillies 7f conditions stakes at Newbury yesterday by 9 lengths and is now favourite for next year's 1000 Guineas at 10/1.
As always I look at the race time against standard and look at the other 7f races.
She was 2.22s above standard, the 2yo nursery 7f 3.10s above, the Listed 7f won by a 6yo 2.26s above - the other two winners carried 9-2, Quadrilateral carried 9-1.
The time was not extraordinary, but her winning distance was.

tryfix · 21-09-2019 9:54am

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Quadrilateral by Frankel won a fillies 7f conditions stakes at Newbury yesterday by 9 lengths and is now favourite for next year's 1000 Guineas at 10/1.
As always I look at the race time against standard and look at the other 7f races.
She was 2.22s above standard, the 2yo nursery 7f 3.10s above, the Listed 7f won by a 6yo 2.26s above - the other two winners carried 9-2, Quadrilateral carried 9-1.
The time was not extraordinary, but her winning distance was.

I always look at that speed comparison too trying to make sense of a 2yo winner. What approximate time difference should there be between a 2yo and 3yo of the same ability/rating running over 7f?

tryfix · 05-10-2019 6:27pm

It was a good day for Frankel today but not as good as it could have been.

Anapurna won her 2nd G1 when she took the Prix Du Royallieu and becomes only the 2nd horse by Frankel to win multiple G1s.

It could have been 3 Gp1 winners for Frankel today as Veracious ran a fine 2nd today in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket while over at Longchamp when last year's G1 Prix Du Cadran winner Call The Wind ran his best race since then when coming 2nd in this year's Cadran.

The performance of these 3 Frankel's on Soft and Very Soft ground points to Soft Ground being a bonus for the best of Frankel's stock. His brilliant Cracksman was only brilliant on Soft going.

tryfix · 09-10-2019 9:19pm

Lot 288: b c Frankel - Fleche d'Or (Dubai Destination)

A half brother to Golden Horn by Frankel makes £3.1 million Guineas. It's a smashing pedigree ( if you want a Derby/St Leger horse ).

There's a lot of Golden Horn about him to like, but that wild eye speaks of a Frankel's Temperament.

tryfix · 09-10-2019 9:24pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Quadrilateral by Frankel won a fillies 7f conditions stakes at Newbury yesterday by 9 lengths and is now favourite for next year's 1000 Guineas at 10/1.
As always I look at the race time against standard and look at the other 7f races.
She was 2.22s above standard, the 2yo nursery 7f 3.10s above, the Listed 7f won by a 6yo 2.26s above - the other two winners carried 9-2, Quadrilateral carried 9-1.
The time was not extraordinary, but her winning distance was.

This lady has been supplemented by Roger Charlton for Friday's Fillies Mile. I think that she's very very short ( actually she has drifted out a half decent price ) for the Fillies Mile and will be opposing her.

If she wins she becomes the first European Group 1 2yo winner for Frankel.

tryfix · 11-10-2019 3:51pm

tryfix wrote: »

This lady has been supplemented by Roger Charlton for Friday's Fillies Mile. I think that she's very very short ( actually she has drifted out a half decent price ) for the Fillies Mile and will be opposing her.

If she wins she becomes the first European Group 1 2yo winner for Frankel.

Well the Frankel filly Equilateral did it and gives Frankel his first G1 winning Juvenile in Europe. A very attractive filly, very much a chestnut in the mould of Australia looks wise.

It looks as if she will improve a lot physically from 2-3, the form of the race is strong and she won with plenty in reserve. Soft Ground may be necessary to get the best out of her and it likely contributed significantly to her win today.

tryfix · 16-06-2020 11:09pm

*bump*

He's flying this year. In general trainers are giving them time before asking too much of them and that pays dividends.

The one exception is his first 2yo G1 winner in Europe Quadrilateral who didn't live up to expectations in the 1,000 Guineas. Looking back on comments about her last year, and it was seemingly obvious to me that she needs juice in the ground to be at her best.

Frankly Darling looked to be a typical Gosden powerhouse in today's G2 Ribblesdale at Ascot. She has tons of style about her, but Ennistymon got plenty near her so she still has something to prove before she's considered to be out of the top drawer.

tryfix · 20-06-2020 2:57pm

Equilateral ran another 3rd place just like her Guineas run in today's Coronation. Although today she showed plenty of speed and looked anything but an Oaks filly at the end of the race.

She had her ground, she had the run of the race but ran out of speed or stamina? as the winner left her in her wake. She looked nervous and overtrained beforehand. It looks like her best days are behind her. Perhaps a long holiday would revitalise her.

Itziger · 05-07-2020 12:43pm

Hey Lad,

Good day out yesterday for a few of mine. How did ya get on yourself?

Love, (Geddit!!)

Dad.

tryfix · 05-07-2020 1:41pm

Itziger wrote: »

Hey Lad,

Good day out yesterday for a few of mine. How did ya get on yourself?

Love, (Geddit!!)

Dad.

Glad you called Dad.

Can you Help me with these feckin kids of mine, they're soft as hell. Walking around throwing shapes like they were a chip off the old block, but give them a bit of hardship and they fold like cardboard.

Where did I go wrong?

Itziger · 05-07-2020 3:01pm

Son,

Let me be Frank with you. The hard yards are done in the shed. Ya gotta be rested up for them mares - there's no quarter given. Now, from what I hear, you've been spotted on more than one occasion on a night out with the Fleet Street crowd. They're great lads, aren't they? But, son, you need to keep the energy for the shed. Focus on the job at hand - if you pardon the expression.

As for your kids. they're a bit soft or spoiled as your Mam was saying to me the other day. Remember, you're one of a Kind; they find it tough to live up to your performances on the track. As you do mine in the shed.

Good luck today. Ya got anyone in the big one?

Dad

tryfix · 05-07-2020 3:21pm

Sorry Dad, I've been so busy I didn't even notice that there was a big one on today &#55357;&#56836;

Your number one son.

tryfix · 25-07-2020 11:07am

tryfix wrote: »

Lot 288: b c Frankel - Fleche d'Or (Dubai Destination)

A half brother to Golden Horn by Frankel makes £3.1 million Guineas. It's a smashing pedigree ( if you want a Derby/St Leger horse ).

There's a lot of Golden Horn about him to like, but that wild eye speaks of a Frankel's Temperament.

This bad boy now named Dhahabi makes his debut in the 1.40 at Newmarket today.

He's trained by Charlie Appleby so he should be a decent 2yo. Hopefully he'll running for the bookies in some better races and making the price of his less glamorous competition.

The Frankel Foals Watch Thread!

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