Dublin Bay North General Election 2019

bren2001 wrote: »

Politically and economic ideology they're miles apart. Voting center right 1 and then center left 2 just seems bizarre to me.

Of course, plenty of people vote on the candidate and not the policies of the party. It's just not something I quite understand.

CR 1/2 and CL 3. I wasn't going to vote FF/SF

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

That's not the way it works in Ireland though. You may vote for FG to try and keep the current government. Your second option could well be to weaken FF and SF as much as possible. In that scenario a 1 for FG and a 2 for SD would be a perfectly logical thing to do.
Or else you might think he is a good aul skin and deserving of a bit of encouragement and give a number 2. In Ireland we can vote against a candidate aswell as voting for them.
FG are barely right of centre (if at all). If they were in the US they would be considered socialists.

Yeah, it's certainly a bit of a simplistic view on my part. I just went 1-18 in descending order of preference. CL at the top, FG (Bruton) at the bottom and you can see the slide across the spectrum as you go down. My 3-6 had and has little to no chance of getting a seat. I see why people would go FG -> SD, it's just not a logic I abide too or fully understand. The no hopers sometimes get in and I would like my vote to transfer to candidates of a CL ideology if possible. Putting the people you don't want at the very bottom of your ballot gaurantees a vote against them regardless of who is in the race.

FG would be democrats in the US but we're not in America. They're Centre Right here. In China they would be fully fledged capitalists. Neither are the political landscape here.

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Well when I voted I was thinking in terms of a possible coalition maybe FG, SD, Labour, Greens. Which would include a balance of centre right and centre left.

But the numbers did not work out like that.
To be honest I think a lot a parties need to merge or fold. Too much spilts mean it is difficult to form governments.
Maybe it would be better if Ireland moved to first past the post at this stage? More hope of a government at least.

I don't think there is much of an appetite for FPTP here. I'm a big fan of the STV system. Leads to coalitions and compromise which I believe it good.

John Lyons performing well in transfers. If he can stay ahead of Mulvany after the OBrien transfers. He has an outside chance of robbing the last seat. Haughey/Cian/Aodhan all still firm favorites from here though.

bren2001 wrote: »

I don't think there is much of an appetite for FPTP here. I'm a big fan of the STV system. Leads to coalitions and compromise which I believe it good.

What I don't like about STV is the overly local and in-constituency competition it generates between TDs even within same party. But I would not like to lose direct constituency representative entirely. A list system is ultimately fairer at national level in reflecting % of support into seats.

May not be practicable, but I would like to see all constituencies redrawn as 4 seaters which elect 1 TD by STV. The other TDs are elected on a list system.

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Heney will get Haughey in unfortunately

You gave me a fright there I read as Haughey will get Heney in!
Bruton has officially got the second seat now anyway.

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Agreed but Haughey needs about half of Heneys vote to stay in as I doubt Mulvany or Lyons distributions will be kind to him. They could be very kind to COC and Healy*.


* this may be my attempt to keep a bit of suspense in the game . Haughey out surprise of the day???

I said to a friend last night that I thought Lyons would be elected*. Haughey needs a decent chunk of Heeneys transfers to be safe and you would expect him to get it. I suppose I wouldn't rule out Heeney transferring to Healy but nowhere near enough to get him in.

I think Lyons will run it close but come up a bit short. PBP missed a trick by letting him go, he really could have gotten a seat this time with some party name recognition. I don't know much about him policy wise but I wonder would SF be interested in trying to get him on board and heavily invest in Donaghmeade i.e. the Broughan vote. That's if he does align somewhat with them. Michael MacDonnacha never really lit the area up.

It is very very interesting.

*proof is available.

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Jayus the media would love that. All I know is the poor fecker who misses out on the last seat will be sick - it is so tight.
I had forgotten that Dublin Bay North was the last consistency decided last time.

That was because Averil Power wouldn't accept defeat. I did a bit of work at that election, it was a long few days.

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Wicklow looks like it will be last this time around. SF seem to be done at 37. No more in the running from what I can see. They could easily have picked up 10 more seats in hindsight.

Easy in hindsight isn't it? I wouldn't have thought Mitchell would do so well here in DBN. I thought there was 1 guaranteed SF seat but nowhere near a second. Poor vote management almost cost them the last time. Nobody would have suggested running 2 but she got the highest first preference count in the country.

Equally, Ellis in Dublin North West, there was rumors his seat was under threat. Romped home.

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Poor Sean must be pooping his pants at the moment

Safely in. Cian should get over the line as well. Would be a big shock if transfers went against him.

Fair play to Cian. He deserves this.

bren2001 wrote: »

Cian got around 6k in transfers, Aodhan 3k. I think it shows you how toxic the Labour brand is.

This could be Haugheys last election. Squeaked over the line, I doubt he'll put himself through a difficult campaign. Could easily retire if the government lasts a few years. Bruton may step aside then too as he could end up in Haugheys position.

As a complete wild guess, I think they might parachute Kate OConnell in to replace him. High profile enough and could rack up a big vote. FF don't have anyone to replace Haughey. Daryl Barron? No chance. Rachel Batten? Nope. Tom Brabazon? Nope. They don't have a viable candidate.

Cathal Haughey?

A left wing lite - constituency now three left wing -

Left - SF
Centre Left - Labour, SD

Only two right wing -

Centre Right - FF FG

Is Dublin Bay North going to be the new 'Dublin Mid-West' in a few elections?

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

A left wing lite - constituency now three left wing -

Left - SF
Centre Left - Labour, SD

Only two right wing -

Centre Right - FF FG

Is Dublin Bay North going to be the new 'Dublin Mid-West' in a few elections?

I think there's space there for another CL TD but it would take cooperation between Labour, SD, and PBP.

I think Haughey will struggle in the next election. His support base is shifting and leaving him. He's vunerable and the right candidate could pick him off if the SF surplus can be targeted. That will leave quite a few votes in Edenmore/Raheny/Donaghmeade when you combine it with Broughans base. A CL candidate could do quite well here.

If Bruton steps aside, Aodhan is primed to take a lot of the Clontarf vote. FG need to bring someone through here and quickly. Kate OConnell would be who I would parachute in, get her in the Seanad and start the groundwork now. I think Aodhan is most at risk of not being relected.

Cian is benefiting off the transfer friendly nature of the Social Democrats brand. If he focuses heavily on Howth/Sutton he could be someone who is very hard to shift. I believe Noone was placed to try and get the Averil Power and Howth/Sutton vote. That backfired.

Depending on how Mitchell and SF perform in government, I doubt we will see such a landslide for a SF candidate again. I still think this is 1 seat constituency for SF. She borrowed a lot of votes, can she hold them? I don't think so, there is space there for a PBP candidate to sweep up. I think Lyons is the person who could have done it but he's left the party.

Good management between the 3 parties could see 3 elected with another SF and 1 other (FG/FF). Bit of a stretch but with luck and planning in the locals, it's plausible. However, it would require cooperation between parties that don't talk. I still don't understand why PBP ran two candidates or how they let Lyons go.

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I was thinking about that . Could it be as simple as raising the profile for the PBP brand? Two candidates - more mentions. I doubt they thought they would seriously be in the running, especially with Lyons gone.
To be honest when I saw Lyons, I assumed in my head that he was with the PBP.

I am not sure the PBP really suit DBN. With thier active protesting style and so on. Plus SF have cornered the left market. With Labour and SD getting the leftovers.

Neither Michael O'Brien nor Bernard Mulvany were close to being elected in the Local Elections in 2019. The only logical reason to try and raise the profile of both is to target the local election, gain two seats, start some groundwork. Realistically, neither of these candidates will ever be in Dail Eireann which means they would need to introduce a young, active, charismatic politician to capitalise on this groundwork. I don't know where he/she is.

I think John Lyons shows that there is a seat there for a PBP candidate. They missed their chance with Broughan stepping down. They need to develop a divide and conquer strategy and the locals can be used to help focus that. Build a profile in the Mitchell surplus areas (which I imagine are Donaghmeade i.e. the Broughan vote) and target the Haughey vote i.e. Edenmore/Raheny. Build from that and attack the SF vote as a "change" party assuming that they will struggle to retain their vote.

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Edenmore is Haughey? I would never have put the 2 together.

I thought that would have been a SF stronghold myself. Maybe when FF were more populist back in the day?

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Edenmore is Haughey? I would never have put the 2 together.

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I thought that would have been a SF stronghold myself. Maybe when FF were more populist back in the day?

From the 2016 election and the 3 Edenmore ballot boxes, the first preference votes went:

Lyons 203, Haughey 198, Bruton 151, MacDonnach 151, McGrath 114, Broughan 105, Mitchell 102. Everyone else was 51 or lower.

There's a very strong left vote in Edenmore. The MacDonnach vote is slightly candidate based and not party based so it's hard to read into SF's numbers there. This is a slightly lower return for Haughey than his historic share.

Similar is true for Harmonstown, very much Haughey/Bruton/Lyons (in that order). The Tonlegee road is where the vote moves towards Mitchell. MacDonnach has a good representation in Grange as well (opposite side of the Raheny road), which is a local vote for him as well.

The Bruton one baffles me for the area.

bren2001 wrote: »

From the 2016 election and the 3 Edenmore ballot boxes, the first preference votes went:

Lyons 203, Haughey 198, Bruton 151, MacDonnach 151, McGrath 114, Broughan 105, Mitchell 102. Everyone else was 51 or lower.

There's a very strong left vote in Edenmore. The MacDonnach vote is slightly candidate based and not party based so it's hard to read into SF's numbers there. This is a slightly lower return for Haughey than his historic share.

Similar is true for Harmonstown, very much Haughey/Bruton/Lyons (in that order). The Tonlegee road is where the vote moves towards Mitchell. MacDonnach has a good representation in Grange as well (opposite side of the Raheny road), which is a local vote for him as well.

The Bruton one baffles me for the area.

Fair play, I did not know about any of these breakdowns/patch boundaries interesting stuff. There is a great mix of demographics in DBN plenty of chances of 'tugs of war' in the future.

I hope a new young vibrant, level headed, local independent emerges in the future - that looks after the local issues and can ignore party politics. There should also be one of them in my view!

expectationlost wrote: »

heres your DCC councillors https://councilmeetings.dublincity.ie/mgMemberIndex.aspx?FN=PARTY&VW=LIST&PIC=0 and Howth Malahide https://www.fingal.ie/council/councillors slim pickings for FF

Labour and the Greens have a few strong candidates there. The rest is very slim pickings indeed.

Mary Fitzpatrick is quite good for FF and was unlucky in Dublin Central, she could be moved to DBN but she probably I can't see her moving.

Locals are another example of FF's strong base in Donaghmeade/Edenmore/Raheny. Tom and Daryl both elected [Tom was no surprise, well known. I thought Shane Folan would pip Daryl easily but that didn't happen].