Dublin Bay North General Election 2019

expectationlost

likely candidates so far Dublin Bay North (5 seats):

Deputy Richard Bruton (Fine Gael), Senator Catherine Noone (Fine Gael),

Deputy Sean Haughey (Fianna Fáil), Cllr. Deirdre Heney (Fianna Fáil),

Deputy Denise Mitchell (Sinn Féin),

Sen. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (Labour),

Cllr. Cian O’Callaghan (Social Democrats),

Cllr. David Healy (Green Party),

Cllr. John Lyons (Independent).

Bernard Mulvany People before Profit (-Solidarity)

Michael O'Brien Dublin Bay North Solidarity (-PBP)

Tommy Broughan (Independent)

Finian McGrath says he is not running again this time .. so will he endorse Councillor Damian O'Farrell ? not sure he is running.

Councillor Jimmy Guerin?

via Adrian Kavanagh keeps a list https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/

people who ran last time out https://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=156 and in the locals https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/local-elections/local-elections-results/fingal-county-council-results-greens-gain-three-seats-as-20-year-old-student-is-elected-1.3890429 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/local-elections/local-elections-results/dublin-city-council-chu-sets-the-pace-with-green-party-making-gains-in-all-areas-1.3890425


Map https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/dail_constituency_map_dublin_2018.pdf change from last time was a chunk of Drumcondra going back to Dublin Central http://www.constituency-commission.ie/cc/docs/MapB_Dublin_City_2017.pdf

The latest time for receiving nominations is 12 noon on Wednesday 22 January 2020. Candidates may withdraw their nominations up to 12 noon on Thursday 23 January 2020. https://www.housing.gov.ie/local-government/voting/dail-elections/minister-murphy-makes-order-appointing-saturday-8-february

Notice of poll with official list will be here https://dublincityreturningofficer.com/

so policy discussion to follow?

expectationlost

expectationlost wrote: »

likely candidates so far Dublin Bay North (5 seats):

Deputy Richard Bruton (Fine Gael), Senator Catherine Noone (Fine Gael),

Deputy Sean Haughey (Fianna Fáil), Cllr. Deirdre Heney (Fianna Fáil),

Deputy Denise Mitchell (Sinn Féin),

Sen. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (Labour),

Cllr. Cian O’Callaghan (Social Democrats),

Cllr. David Healy (Green Party),

Cllr. John Lyons (Independent).
Bernard Mulvany People before Profit (-Solidarity)

Tommy Broughan (Independent)

Finian McGrath says he is not running again this time .. so will he endorse Councillor Damian O'Farrell ?



via Adrian Kavanagh keeps a list https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/


Map https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/dail_constituency_map_dublin_2018.pdf change from last time was bit of Drumcondra going back to DC



Notice of poll with official list will be here https://dublincityreturningofficer.com/

so policy discussion to follow?

so what a the big issues in DBN that coincide with national politics... housing, health, schools, planning, cost of living... there might be voter advice app out that will help you match your thoughts with party and candidates, http://www.whichcandidate.ienot sure if they are doing one for 2019

antimatterx

Catherine Noone and Richard Bruton for me

odyssey06

Bruton, Haughey and Mitchell safe enough to get re-elected presumably.

Then probably Broughan, Ó'Ríordáin have the edge ahead of Noone, Heney, Healy for the last 2 seats.

FG would have to really manage their vote to translate the 20% first preferences they got last time around into 2 seats and I can't see their vote percentage increasing.
Similarly even if FF vote increases, difficult to get both Haughey & Heney elected, probably not helped by them both being based at the Donnycarney \ Killester end of the constituency versus the Howth end.

Probably a long shot for O'Farrell to step into Finian's McGrath's seat this time around although 3500 first preferences in the council elections is a good start.

neris

Wont be giving FG anything this time around, gave them 1st & 2nd last 2 elections when Enda was in charge. I think Leo has stiffed us as a country and is a very weak leader compared to Enda Kenny and is more interested in pandering to photo opps and fluffy PC issues and isnt progressing the country for the ordinary citizens who work or run SME's & pay taxes.

antimatterx

neris wrote: »

Wont be giving FG anything this time around, gave them 1st & 2nd last 2 elections when Enda was in charge. I think Leo has stiffed us as a country and is a very weak leader compared to Enda Kenny and is more interested in pandering to photo opps and fluffy PC issues and isnt progressing the country for the ordinary citizens who work or run SME's & pay taxes.

I encourage you to give them one last go. The country finally is doing well economically, FG will be great

neris

antimatterx wrote: »

I encourage you to give them one last go. The country finally is doing well economically, FG will be great

If they got rid of Leo and developed a bit of an non PC spine under a new leader I,d consider it but I think theyve let the country go too far with parts of the economy & business sector & also public/social issues that are going to be very difficult for any govt to sort out in the next few years without damaging that parties votability at the following election.

Dietmar Hamann

Will be very surprised if Noone gets in. She has little to no presence locally. Interesting that she is moving constituency from the Leo's.

The 5 I see getting in are Haughey (FF), Bruton (FG), Ó Ríordáin (LAB), Mitchell (SF) & Broughan (IND)

Won't be giving Fine Gael the time of day at the door or the polling station. The economy may be booming (to some) but all I see is them (FG) further squeezing the middle incomes to the point where my generation will struggle even more to afford a home.

Would love to see Bruton lose his seat but doubt it will happen.

odyssey06

Dietmar Hamann wrote: »

The 5 I see getting in are Haughty (FF), Bruton (FG), Ó Ríordáin (LAB), Mitchell (SF) & Broughan (IND)

Yeah I think anything other than those 5 will be considered a major upset now that Finian McGrath is out of the mix.

Hard to see Heney, Noone, Healy, Lyons, O'Callaghan and maybe O'Farrell (if he runs) breaking through although there are 10,000 first preferences from last time round that went to McGrath and Power up for grabs.

ps was Haughty a deliberate mis-spelling

antimatterx

Dietmar Hamann wrote: »

Will be very surprised if Noone gets in. She has little to no presence locally. Interesting that she is moving constituency from the Leo's.

The 5 I see getting in are Haughty (FF), Bruton (FG), Ó Ríordáin (LAB), Mitchell (SF) & Broughan (IND)

Won't be giving Fine Gael the time of day at the door or the polling station. The economy may be booming (to some) but all I see is them (FG) further squeezing the middle incomes to the point where my generation will struggle even more to afford a home.

Would love to see Bruton lose his seat but doubt it will happen.

Noone has a huge presence up at Sutton/Howth. I reckon she'll get in. Bruton is a certain

Dietmar Hamann

odyssey06 wrote: »

Yeah I think anything other than those 5 will be considered a major upset now that Finian McGrath is out of the mix.

Hard to see Heney, Noone, Healy, Lyons, O'Callaghan and maybe O'Farrell (if he runs) breaking through although there are 10,000 first preferences from last time round that went to McGrath and Power up for grabs.

ps was Haughty a deliberate mis-spelling

Haha just did the copy paste without properly reading it.....

Dietmar Hamann

antimatterx wrote: »

Noone has a huge presence up at Sutton/Howth. I reckon she'll get in. Bruton is a certain

She'll need to start canvasing in rest of the constituency then as she is unknown in outside of Sutton/ Howth which is a small subset of the whole area. It was even a small subset of the old Dublin North East area which was a very strong Labour/ Fianna Fáil area. She will do well to poll well there and get a seat in the Dail out of it.

Also historically Fine Gael have never polled well across 2 candidates in these area's. They seem to get one over the line at the expense of the other who struggles to gather votes and gets little or no transfers.

Ó Ríordáin and Broughan will do well in that old Dublin North East area I think. Ó Ríordáin could do very well out of the Artane/ Coolock area too given the recent news events and how vocal he has been about it versus the rest. Could give him the bump to move into a seat and possibly to get a top 3 in the vote ahead of Broughan and Mitchell.

jay0109

Dietmar Hamann wrote: »

Ó Ríordáin and Broughan will do well in that old Dublin North East area I think. Ó Ríordáin could do very well out of the Artane/ Coolock area too given the recent news events and how vocal he has been about it versus the rest. Could give him the bump to move into a seat and possibly to get a top 3 in the vote ahead of Broughan and Mitchell.

This makes me sad

davycc

I'll be voting Denise Mitchell again. Any body but fg ff labour..We need a change from the status quo

antimatterx

davycc wrote: »

I'll be voting Denise Mitchell again. Any body but fg ff labour..We need a change from the status quo

SF Jesus christ. God help us if they get into power

neris

https://twitter.com/boucherhayes/status/1218133944929046528?s=19

(Why is Ireland's Eye marked as part of the constituency, it's not like the rats and gulls who live there are going to vote)

odyssey06

neris wrote: »

(Why is Ireland's Eye marked as part of the constituency, it's not like the rats and gulls who live there are going to vote)

You say that now but wait until you see the returns and a certain TD has picked up 1000 votes from its residents

BowWow

antimatterx wrote: »

Noone has a huge presence up at Sutton/Howth. I reckon she'll get in. Bruton is a certain

Noone is certainly on every bandwagon going in the area - whilst I would lean towards FG, she wont be receiving any preference on my ballot sheet.

neris

odyssey06 wrote: »

You say that now but wait until you see the returns and a certain TD has picked up 1000 votes from its residents

Wonder who the wallabies up on lambay will be voting for

tricky D

BowWow wrote: »

Noone is certainly on every bandwagon going in the area - whilst I would lean towards FG, she wont be receiving any preference on my ballot sheet.

She has avoided a few bandwagons but did take up the Techcrete development issue in which she was at least 2 years late to the matter, not very convincing and hammered for being in the party who introduced the Strategic Housing Development legislation (gutted planning good practices and written for the developers).


That said there is the usual unthinking traditional vote which FF/FG benefit from and that cake-walked Aoibheann Tormey into a council seat. Real issues still don't dent that vote much.

tobsey

Dietmar Hamann wrote: »

Won't be giving Fine Gael the time of day at the door or the polling station. The economy may be booming (to some) but all I see is them (FG) further squeezing the middle incomes to the point where my generation will struggle even more to afford a home.

Would love to see Bruton lose his seat but doubt it will happen.

The reason our generation will struggle to own a home is because the previous one could buy three at the stroke of a pen under FF. It’s also the reason we still have those taxes on middle incomes. Property prices still haven’t even reached the peaks of 2007 and people feel they’re unaffordable, FF had them even higher when they were last in and brought the country to the point of ruin. A large number of their candidates were also candidates in 2007, so they haven’t changed that much.

Fair enough if you’re disappointed on FG’s performance, but please don’t go to FF of the rest.

neris

I see Noones getting it in the neck on Twitter from the easily offended
& outraged for parking a VW van on the path outside the pub in kilester yesterday

Dietmar Hamann

tobsey wrote: »

The reason our generation will struggle to own a home is because the previous one could buy three at the stroke of a pen under FF. It’s also the reason we still have those taxes on middle incomes. Property prices still haven’t even reached the peaks of 2007 and people feel they’re unaffordable, FF had them even higher when they were last in and brought the country to the point of ruin. A large number of their candidates were also candidates in 2007, so they haven’t changed that much.

Fair enough if you’re disappointed on FG’s performance, but please don’t go to FF of the rest.

Would FG have done any different if they were in power back then... I think not. We would still be in the exact same place we are now.

expectationlost

Dublin North Bay candidates already being added to the returning officer website https://dublincityreturningofficer.com/index.php/general-election-feb-2020/13-nominated-candidates-dublin-bay-north

new candidate Sean O'Leary, Businessman with a cork address has nominated himself in about 7 different constituencies I've found so far in Cork and Dublin wants 'return to nominations' option on ballot https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/voting-options-in-the-byelections-1.4094558

theres a few others heads that may well be running I'll post them when they are officially candidates

R3_Regera

Apparently Ben Gilroy is running in Dublin Bay North?

scheister

expectationlost wrote: »

Dublin North Bay candidates already being added to the returning officer website https://dublincityreturningofficer.com/index.php/general-election-feb-2020/13-nominated-candidates-dublin-bay-north

new candidate Sean O'Leary, Businessman with a cork address has nominated himself in about 7 different constituencies I've found so far in Cork and Dublin wants 'return to nominations' option on ballot https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/voting-options-in-the-byelections-1.4094558

theres a few others heads that may well be running I'll post them when they are officially candidates

Just looking at the list of people running and have one question. How old is the photo of Noel Rock.

expectationlost

thejournal has database of most candidates (for DBN *hint hint*) https://www.thejournal.ie/election-2020/constituency/53/ with a bit more info on the more unknown candidates

IT profile doesn't say much https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-dublin-bay-north-constituency-profile-1.4146506

tricky D

neris wrote: »

I see Noones getting it in the neck on Twitter from the easily offended
& outraged for parking a VW van on the path outside the pub in kilester yesterday

Whatever about offense this spot is around the corner from the CRC so parking there wasn't the cleverest.

bren2001

neris wrote: »

I see Noones getting it in the neck on Twitter from the easily offended
& outraged for parking a VW van on the path outside the pub in kilester yesterday

She illegally parked it on the path. It wasn't in the car park area (i.e. where the mattress mick car is in the picture) it was right in the middle of the path. Absolutely stupid place to park it even it was just there "for 5 minutes". It was silly and she deserves to be called out on it. Nothing to do with the "easily offended" as you put it.

Phoebas

2 People Before Profit candidates and one candidate who was formally People Before Profit.
Who to choose?

And what happened to Naoise O'Muire (FG) and Donna Cooney (GP)?

expectationlost

they actually have Bernard Mulvany's party labelled wrongly https://dublincityreturningofficer.com/index.php/general-election-feb-2020/13-nominated-candidates-dublin-bay-northI emailed them to point it out, tmw is the deadline so we'll see who else is added by tmw afternoon

odyssey06

Phoebas wrote: »

2 People Before Profit candidates and one candidate who was formally People Before Profit.
Who to choose?
And what happened to Naoise O'Muire (FG) and Donna Cooney (GP)?

O'Muire could be a victim of the need for parties to have certain % of female candidates for state funding. But I could be reading too much into it.

bren2001

odyssey06 wrote: »

O'Muire could be a victim of the need for parties to have certain % of female candidates for state funding. But I could be reading too much into it.

Nah, they ran Stephanie Regan in previous elections. Naoise has run several times at this stage and never really gotten too close. Bruton is 66 and this is quite possibly his last election. It's important they setup his successor now. Neither Naoise nor Regan were capable of that. I don't think they believe Noone will get in this time but it's gives her visibility and exposure for next time when she can replace Bruton and lock down that seat for another generation.

If Bruton stays on, it's plausible they could get two seats (let's see how the next few years pan out).

There's a lot of talk that she's a "big name" and has a great chance. She has the potential to go on to be big but she hasn't done anything yet. She's a nobody in my eyes. Another term as a Senator, some exposure in Clontarf and Howth. In next time will be headquarters thinking.

Phoebas

They ran Stephanie Regan once before for the Dail, and she didn't do well -but was out performed by Naoise O'Muire.

He did pretty badly in 2016 compared to his performance in 2011 before the constituency changes.
Maybe they figure his star is on the wane, but he must feel pissed off given his record overall.

antimatterx

Phoebas wrote: »

They ran Stephanie Regan once before for the Dail, and she didn't do well -but was out performed by Naoise O'Muire.

He did pretty badly in 2016 compared to his performance in 2011 before the constituency changes.
Maybe they figure his star is on the wane, but he must feel pissed off given his record overall.

He was out canvassing with Catherine last week

antimatterx

Tommy Broughan is out!

DBN is wide out now for the last 2 seats

Phoebas

antimatterx wrote: »

Tommy Broughan is out!

DBN is wide out now for the last 2 seats

Aodhan O'Riordan must be delighted.

Phoebas

antimatterx wrote: »

He was out canvassing with Catherine last week

Catherine Noone is another one who only ran once before, in a different constituency, and got just 2.5% of FPs

subpar

Healy is a political lightweight he has been around a long time and made little or no impact.

Mitchell's problem is a real lack of visability in general, and support and transfers around the middle class parts of the constituency and the Howth/ Sutton peninsula

Heney has had many attempts to get elected to the Dail and like her election posters flatters to decieve


Broughan has been running since the 1980's and may have run out of time he just scrapped in last time.

If Broughan is eliminated then O'Callaghan has a real chance.

Bruton , Haughey O' Riordan should make it home before the scramble for the last seats


Just heard the news update

---

Broughan must have read the tea leaves during the last week and decided not to run, very good news for O'Riordan and O'Callaghan

L1011

Power's 5k votes from last time are also up for grabs so there will be quite significant share and FPV changes here now

Sleepy

neris wrote: »

I see Noones getting it in the neck on Twitter from the easily offended & outraged for parking a VW van on the path outside the pub in kilester yesterday

The biggest crime there was the defacing of a beautiful old van!

BowWow

subpar wrote: »

Heeney has had many attempts to get elected to the Dail and like her election posters flatters to decieve

If Broughan is eliminated then O'Callaghan has a real chance.

The poster that Heney uses must be 25 year's old at this stage!:D

O'Callaghan looking very good now.

Phoebas

Bruton, Haughey, Mitchell, Ó Ríordáin, O’Callaghan (in that order)

neris

No more of Tommys little caravan darting around the place on Saturday morning to meet the constituents

Muahahaha

I backed O'Riordain to be next leader of the Labour party a few months ago at 13/1 as the Labour party constitution says they must have a leadership contest after every general election and its obviously time for Howlin to step aside. I just need the favourite Jan o'Sullivan to lose her seat in Limerick now and I might be quids in because the rest of them all hate Alan Kelly and O'Riordain would be the last man standing, he would get it by default of being the least annoying of all of them. C'mon Aodhan ! .

expectationlost

Muahahaha wrote: »

I backed O'Riordain to be next leader of the Labour party a few months ago at 13/1 as the Labour party constitution says they must have a leadership contest after every general election and its obviously time for Howlin to step aside. I just need the favourite Jan o'Sullivan to lose her seat in Limerick now and I might be quids in because the rest of them all hate Alan Kelly and O'Riordain would be the last man standing, he would get it by default of being the least annoying of all of them. C'mon Aodhan ! .

Aodhan isn't annoying? he's a smug as **** I thought people like Ged Nash better? Noone isn't the only one that's been put in paid cushy job because she didn't get in last time.

Muahahaha

Oh I think that he is annoying, just the least annoying of all of them. A far as smug goes theres no one in politics more smug than Eamon Ryan, he personifies the word

neris

O'Riordan has posters up saying he was involved in getting a new Garda station for Dublin 13 & 17. When did this happen and wheres it going?

odyssey06

Election poster set on fire in Kilbarrack... from Dublin Fire Brigade twitter:

Phoebas

We must have the best fire brigade on the planet that they could get out to the poster fire before it was half burned.

tricky D

It is on Millbrook Road which is about 500 metres from the station.