Hurricane Winds Off The West Coast

DominoDub · 08-10-2010 11:27am

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1008/cork.html

Flood warning for low-lying areas of Cork
Friday, 8 October 2010 11:02

Cork City Council has issued a flood warning for parts of the city for tonight and tomorrow.

The council said that a tidal surge together with southeast winds will increase the tide levels above normal.

The high tides are predicted for 6.41pm tonight, as well as 7.01am and 7.23pm tomorrow.

It said: 'It is possible that flooding may occur in the low-lying areas of the city centre including Sawmill Street, Cotter Street, Stable Lane, Union Quay, Morrisons Quay, Corn Market Street, Frenchs Quay, Wandesford Quay, Oliver Plunkett Street, Lavitts Quay, Kyrls Street & Kyrls Quay.'

The council has warned householders and business in the area to protect their property.

The city suffered badly from flooding last November, with the damage running into hundreds of millions of euro.

GSF · 08-10-2010 11:39am

200motels wrote: »

Why would you want that storm to hit Ireland? It could do some damage and even loss of life, no one in there right mind would want a storm like that to hit us, I'm glad it won't hit us.

The weather will do whatever it chooses to do whatever we may wish for. There is no proven cause & effect between internet postings & storm tracks

maquiladora · 08-10-2010 12:02pm

GSF wrote: »

There is no proven cause & effect between internet postings & storm tracks

Yes there is! Whenever a thread is started here it becomes the kiss of death and whatever is meant to happen always gets downgraded to a non-event.

Iancar29 · 08-10-2010 12:10pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Speaking of trees.

Aftermath of the 1987 storm in the UK :

Haha ye i remember hearing about this storm... a forecaster at the time was asked was there a hurricane on the way or something as fierce and he specifically said " dont worry folks , theres no hurricane on the way"..... and ye , the next morning the country wakes up to this!

lucernarian · 08-10-2010 12:14pm

I couldn't be delighted more. I'm sick of the weather of recent summers where there "may or may not", and usually a may, be showers over the day. It's awfully late in the year to enjoy properly but a spell of settled weather is something I've come to crave over so-called summer months in this country. There's a whole winter of zonality to look forward to:(

Also, if anyone is going to use the argument of trees and their relative vulnerabilities because of the lack of strong winds, surely the solution to that would be some moderately strong events like in the winter of 2006 (IIRC) which would knock down the weakest of trees while not necessarily causing widespread destruction?! There isn't any benefit from exceptional wind events except that our morbid curiousity is quenched. As someone who urged cold weather on all our heads over the past winter, I would understand someone who thought I was mad or worse.

who the fug · 08-10-2010 12:16pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Haha ye i remember hearing about this storm... a forecaster at the time was asked was there a hurricane on the way or something as fierce and he specifically said " dont worry folks , theres no hurricane on the way"..... and ye , the next morning the country wakes up to this!

Michael Fish, was his name

RTE contradicted the BBC weather report, and got it right

Su Campu · 08-10-2010 12:44pm

Again you're misquoting Michael Fish. He was talking about the hurricane near Florida at the time. He went on to say that that hurricane wasn't on the way, but that it was going to get very windy in the south of England that night. That bit conveniently gets left out. The model the UK were using had the storm much further south, with the worst of the winds in Biscay. The model got it wrong, which is what led to the understated forecast.

People, please, stop with the Michael Fish thing. The facts are the facts, don't try to distort them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

In the immediate aftermath, the Met Office was severely criticised by journalists for failing to forecast the storm correctly.
The Met Office conducted an internal inquiry, scrutinised by two independent assessors, and a number of recommendations were made. Chiefly, observational coverage of the atmosphere over the ocean to the south and west of the UK was improved by increasing the quality and quantity of observations from ships, aircraft, buoys and satellites. Continued refinements were made to the computer models used in forecasting, and changes were made in the training of forecasters. In addition, reforms in the way the Met Office reports warnings of severe weather were implemented, leading to substantially more warnings being issued in the future. Further deployment of improved tracking devices and improvements in the computer model simulations were supported by the purchase of an additional Cray supercomputer. Warnings for the Burns' Day storm three years later were accurate and on time.
BBC meteorologist Michael Fish drew particular criticism for reporting several hours before the storm hit, seemingly flippantly:
Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't, but having said that, actually, the weather will become very windy, but most of the strong winds, incidentally, will be down over Spain and across into France.[10]
Fish has subsequently claimed that his comments about a hurricane had nothing to do with the UK; they referred to Florida, USA, and were linked to a news story immediately preceding the weather bulletin, but had been so widely repeated out of context that the British public remains convinced that he was referring to the approaching storm. According to Michael Fish, the woman in question was actually a colleague's mother who was about to go on holiday in the Caribbean, and had called regarding (the already long-dissipated) Hurricane Floyd to see if it would be safe to travel.[11]
Fish went on to warn viewers in the UK to "batten down the hatches", saying it would be "very windy" across the south of England, but predicted that the storm would move further south along the English Channel and the British mainland would escape the worst effects. The remainder of his warning is frequently left out of re-runs, which only adds to the public's misconception of that evening's forecasting. His analysis has been defended by weather experts. In particular, the lack of a weather ship in the Southwest Approaches, due to Met Office cutbacks, meant the only manner of tracking the storm was by using satellite data, as automatic buoys had not been deployed at the time.
Ironically, earlier forecasts as far back as the preceding weekend had correctly identified that gale force winds would affect Southern England. However, later runs of the model had indicated a more southerly track for the low pressure system, incorrectly indicating that the strongest winds would be confined to Northern and Central France. The French meteorological office used a different computer weather model to the British, and the French model proved more accurate in predicting the severity of the storm in the Channel.

Iancar29 · 08-10-2010 12:53pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Again you're misquoting Michael Fish. He was talking about the hurricane near Florida at the time. He went on to say that that hurricane wasn't on the way, but that it was going to get very windy in the south of England that night. That bit conveniently gets left out. The model the UK were using had the storm much further south, with the worst of the winds in Biscay. The model got it wrong, which is what led to the understated forecast.

People, please, stop with the Michael Fish thing. The facts are the facts, don't try to distort them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

Awh thats it ye... sorry so, The pictures from france and spain were even worse weren't they?

Su Campu · 08-10-2010 12:56pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Awh thats it ye... sorry so, The pictures from france and spain were even worse weren't they?

There's no doubt the forecast was wrong, due to the latest model data they had to hand. The strongest winds were in the south of England.

My point is that the way he gets quoted makes it look like he didn't forecast strong winds when he did; but that bit gets left out. Plus the hurricane he mentioned had nothing to do with that storm.

nacho libre · 08-10-2010 1:33pm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I couldn't be delighted more. I'm sick of the weather of recent summers where there "may or may not", and usually a may, be showers over the day. It's awfully late in the year to enjoy properly but a spell of settled weather is something I've come to crave over so-called summer months in this country. There's a whole winter of zonality to look forward to:(

Also, if anyone is going to use the argument of trees and their relative vulnerabilities because of the lack of strong winds, surely the solution to that would be some moderately strong events like in the winter of 2006 (IIRC) which would knock down the weakest of trees while not necessarily causing widespread destruction?! There isn't any benefit from exceptional wind events except that our morbid curiousity is quenched. As someone who urged cold weather on all our heads over the past winter, I would understand someone who thought I was mad or worse.

So what!? I really don't understand the obligation to apologise for being a weather enthusiast and all that entails. Some humans like plane spotting. Some like collecting stamps. Some like cricket.
No one should feel the need to apologise for their hobby/interest

I would also dispute the idea that people like storms purely out of morbid curiousity- well i can't speak for others, but the reason i like storms is because it is something we don't have control over and seeing mother nature at work is compelling.

I think this quote sums it up for me:
"Each new power won by man [over Nature] is a power over man as well."

maquiladora · 08-10-2010 3:16pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Again you're misquoting Michael Fish. He was talking about the hurricane near Florida at the time. He went on to say that that hurricane wasn't on the way, but that it was going to get very windy in the south of England that night. That bit conveniently gets left out.

Actually, I'm not sure he was talking about a hurricane near Florida at all.
If you watch the clip he makes no reference to Florida at all and makes no distinction that he is talking about two different parts of the world in the same breath.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE

According to this BBC article from 1997, a British woman, Anita Hart in Hemel Hempstead did call up wondering if there was a "hurricane" after her son who was studying meteorology at the time advised her not to travel to Wales. ( I remember seeing herself and her son interviewed a few years ago on a report about the storm.)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/threecounties/content/articles/2007/10/16/storm_1987_hart_feature.shtml

I have a feeling that Michael may have told a little white lie with the whole 'Florida' thing later on to try and be rid of the stigma of that quote in the media.

At the end of the day though, it doesn't matter, the 1987 storm wasn't a hurricane and the models he would have been looking at weren't showing the type of severe event that eventually happened. So he was in the right either way.

snaps · 08-10-2010 3:29pm

I was living in Essex then, just started work as i was 17. I remember when that storm hit. I can remember being very scared as it brought down our Tv Aerial & CB radio mast and destroyed the garden/chicken shed. Then in the early hours it brought down all the power lines/phone lines and the Front 6ft bricked garden wall (Landed all over my car and my fathers). A listed 15 century flint wall was also destroyed as well opposite in the lane we lived. I didnt go to work for 6 days as the storm had ripped all the roofs off the factory where both my father and I worked. It may sound exciting, but when it was happening it was extremely scary, I sometimes have flashbacks when i see news reports of hurricanes in the Gulf states in America. Luckily i can remember the Army dropping supplies of bread and milk into the Village by helicopter (Like they did in the winter of 86) to keep us going. If I remember right it was 86 when we had a servere snow event where the village was cut off for over 10 days due to 15m snow drifts, I was doing my O level mock exams at the time. Im sure my parents have photos of the storm of 87, I'll have to ask them when they are here in 2 weeks time.

lucernarian · 08-10-2010 6:19pm

nacho libre wrote: »

So what!? I really don't understand the obligation to apologise for being a weather enthusiast and all that entails. Some humans like plane spotting. Some like collecting stamps. Some like cricket.
No one should feel the need to apologise for their hobby/interest

I would also dispute the idea that people like storms purely out of morbid curiousity- well i can't speak for others, but the reason i like storms is because it is something we don't have control over and seeing mother nature at work is compelling.

I think this quote sums it up for me:
"Each new power won by man [over Nature] is a power over man as well."

You might want to re-read my post, as I never said anyone should apologise for wanting a storm to hit Ireland. You seem to think that I did expect that. Most of us here know exactly what a very windy day looks like, or as much as will be expected for their respective locations. So this (non?)event doesn't interest me. It's not unusual or extreme unless the wind event is very dangerous in this country. And I said quite clearly that there was no benefit to exceptional wind events (not storms per se) except fulfilling morbid curiousity. I can understand someone being interested in it even if I'm not, but that's entirely separate and distinct from wanting or urging it to hit here. Surely that much is obvious?

I honestly don't want to be argumentative and I definitely wasn't trying to be in that last post. So I can't understand the sense of injury in your post as though I criticised your hobby, which is also my hobby too...:pac:

And I see you didn't address the substantive point of my post, which was that using trees as an reason for wanting a significant storm is a bit iffy.

gbee · 08-10-2010 8:51pm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

And I see you didn't address the substantive point of my post, which was that using trees as an reason for wanting a significant storm is a bit iffy.

Ireland's flora is sculpted by the weather, trees don't grow well or at all in areas of regular high winds. Our climate has, as far as growth been concerned, near tropical conditions for a few years.

The danger of overgrown trees is serious, the councils have hardly trimmed hedges this year, let alone examined especially tall trees, whose height is well advanced for their locations, for age and any scheduled routine maintenance.

lucernarian · 08-10-2010 11:48pm

gbee wrote: »

Ireland's flora is sculpted by the weather, trees don't grow well or at all in areas of regular high winds. Our climate has, as far as growth been concerned, near tropical conditions for a few years.

The danger of overgrown trees is serious, the councils have hardly trimmed hedges this year, let alone examined especially tall trees, whose height is well advanced for their locations, for age and any scheduled routine maintenance.

So the cure for that would be for the county councils to do their job or for a more typical winter's storm to take out the worst examples of growth, rather than more widespread destruction.

In any case, I'm very suprised at the strength of winds on the east coast this evening. The wind direction being easterly makes a massive difference here, even though I'm much more immediately exposed to the west and have a hill to my east.

200motels · 09-10-2010 12:21am

GSF wrote: »

The weather will do whatever it chooses to do whatever we may wish for. There is no proven cause & effect between internet postings & storm tracks

Very good.

nacho libre · 09-10-2010 1:50am

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

You might want to re-read my post, as I never said anyone should apologise for wanting a storm to hit Ireland. You seem to think that I did expect that. Most of us here know exactly what a very windy day looks like, or as much as will be expected for their respective locations. So this (non?)event doesn't interest me. It's not unusual or extreme unless the wind event is very dangerous in this country. And I said quite clearly that there was no benefit to exceptional wind events (not storms per se) except fulfilling morbid curiousity. I can understand someone being interested in it even if I'm not, but that's entirely separate and distinct from wanting or urging it to hit here. Surely that much is obvious?

I honestly don't want to be argumentative and I definitely wasn't trying to be in that last post. So I can't understand the sense of injury in your post as though I criticised your hobby, which is also my hobby too...:pac:

And I see you didn't address the substantive point of my post, which was that using trees as an reason for wanting a significant storm is a bit iffy.

Well I didn't address it because i can't speak for other people. I stated my reason for liking storms, and felt I made clear it has nothing to do with morbid curiosity.
It seems though I may have misinterpreted your comment about people thinking you mad for wanting cold and snow as you somehow having to justify your enthusiasm for certain kinds of weather to others. Sorry about that:)

eskimocat · 09-10-2010 1:48pm

Oh boy I wish I didn't live in a glen!!! I can see the trees at the top ridge blowing about good style! getting a few nice little gusts here (down in the rushy glen) 22kph there a second a go, but if my poor station was placed properly I would be able to get a more accurate picture

"where ever you may be, let the wind blow free, church or chapel, let it rattle"

lol (pardon artistic licence)

CarMuppet · 09-10-2010 3:08pm

^^ You're lucky to live in a sheltered location. Well (sorry for off topic) our house is on a hill (137m above sea according to my GPS) with the rear facing SSW. We're ~9km from the coast as the old crow flies (or flys).

When we moved here in Feb 2008 it was quite a windy month if I remember. One night our BBQ (wrapped in a canvas cover) was blown/lifted/dragged from the back door out into the garden. It weighs >35kg. It covered a distance of over 10m. I'm guessing the canvas cover was acting like a parachute/sail. It snapped the hose liking it to a full gas bottle.

When the weather is wild you can hear the old roof getting a good rattling. One of these days we'll be sleeping literally under the stars. I'd gladly drag our house down into the shelter of the nearby bog!

Su Campu · 10-10-2010 11:16pm

Well the storm "Paula" may have missed us, but she sure didn't miss Portugal yesterday, where several coastal areas were affected by high seas, and heavy rain brought flooding to parts of Lisbon. Graciosa (Azores) got a wave of 14.8m (nearly 50ft!!)

Winds at Corvo

Photos and videos here

Hurricane Winds Off The West Coast

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