Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

pad199207 · 23-01-2021 3:32pm

Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Wintry showers moving in this afternoon and evening with some falls of hail, sleet and snow. Icy and hazardous conditions.

Valid: 14:00 Saturday 23/01/2021 to 18:00 Saturday 23/01/2021

Issued: 13:00 Saturday 23/01/2021

davidsr20 · 23-01-2021 3:32pm

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

No sign of snow east Galway.hope it stays that way

Ur in the wrong thread so

munsterlegend · 23-01-2021 3:32pm

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Here was me thinking it was a weather alert thread as per title.
My sincerest apologies.
How silly of me.

A weather alert for...

Billcarson · 23-01-2021 3:33pm

Gonzo wrote: »

even with a temperature of just 1C snow will melt during the day, especially if the sun is out. Daytime high's of 0C or below are needed for small amounts of snow to stay on the ground throughout the day.

Once we move into the end of February and beginning to March this becomes even more difficult to sustain. During the BFTE/Storm Emma even tho temperatures were 0 or below by daytime, there was still some snow melt going on due to the strength of the sun at the start of Spring. This event of course had snow falling most of the time and the huge amounts on the ground made it difficult to spot the melting but it was there to a small degree even with daytime temperatures of -1C.

Another thing to consider to a lesser degree I suppose, but humidity can have an effect. Snow melts slower in lower humidity.

Humberto Salazar · 23-01-2021 3:36pm

nacho libre wrote: »

If i recall correctly, during December 2010 nearly all of Ireland was covered in snow at one stage, except for parts of Clare.

We had one night of snow about 3 inches in North Offaly. And three weeks of freezing weather, which kept that same snow on the ground. I know on the East coast they got more and it was a bigger snow event there because of the wind direction. My point being, for me, I don't classify late Nov/ Dec 2010 as a major snow event for quantity. Dec 2000 was. Short-lived, but greater snow depth. I doubt people on the west and SW fringes would have had much memories of 2010 either. It's all subjective.

munsterlegend · 23-01-2021 3:37pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Wintry showers moving in this afternoon and evening with some falls of hail, sleet and snow. Icy and hazardous conditions.

Valid: 14:00 Saturday 23/01/2021 to 18:00 Saturday 23/01/2021

Issued: 13:00 Saturday 23/01/2021

The times in that are clearly wrong?

Cluedo Monopoly · 23-01-2021 3:37pm

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

No sign of snow east Galway.hope it stays that way

You monster!

I will happily take 1m of snow in west Galway!

yorlum11 · 23-01-2021 3:40pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

We had one night of snow about 3 inches in North Offaly. And three weeks of freezing weather, which kept that same snow on the ground. I know on the East coast they got more and it was a bigger snow event there because of the wind direction. My point being, for me, I don't classify late Nov/ Dec 2010 as a major snow event for quantity. Dec 2000 was. Short-lived, but greater snow depth. I doubt people on the west and SW fringes would have had much memories of 2010 either. It's all subjective.

West Mayo had several snowfalls in that period. A good few nights/days of 5/6 cm falls. A famous spell. It will also be noted for extreme low temperatures. 2010 was special.

Neddyusa · 23-01-2021 3:40pm

Can't post pictures but from Meteorite's satellite GIF above, there's what looks like the meeting of three airmass's on the front to the northwest of Belmullet.

Can any of the more knowledgeable explain what's happening at that point?

SouthWesterly · 23-01-2021 3:43pm

Slieve Mish this morning

Reversal · 23-01-2021 3:44pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

The times in that are clearly wrong?

It's an addition to the later nationwide warning.

ME Harmonie 12z:
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1352969941775953920?s=19

JanuarySnowstor · 23-01-2021 3:45pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

The times in that are clearly wrong?

Looks right to me they only mention this afternoon and evening.
They are probably wording a better one for after this one expires!!
Could we see some parts get an orange warning? It's possible!

munsterlegend · 23-01-2021 3:47pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Looks right to me they only mention this afternoon and evening.
They are probably wording a better one for after this one expires!!
Could we see some parts get an orange warning? It's possible!

I am just not used to an upgrade! Usually goes pearshaped.

pad199207 · 23-01-2021 3:49pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Looks right to me they only mention this afternoon and evening.
They are probably wording a better one for after this one expires!!
Could we see some parts get an orange warning? It's possible!

Yes I was thinking the same thing. Although an orange warning may just be pushing it, I think Wicklow may just make it into that criteria given elevation and all that.

JanuarySnowstor · 23-01-2021 3:50pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

I am just not used to an upgrade! Usually goes pearshaped.

Your right in a way though that ppn is moving very slowly and I can't see that making Cork before 6pm

Nqp15hhu · 23-01-2021 3:51pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

Can't post pictures but from Meteorite's satellite GIF above, there's what looks like the meeting of three airmass's on the front to the northwest of Belmullet.

Can any of the more knowledgeable explain what's happening at that point?

Its not the meeting of three airmasses. What you are seeing is different types of clouds and clouds at different altitude.

The cloud that you see to the south of Ireland is high cloud, the cloud to the west is part of a frontal system and the system to the north is convective showers.

In this image you can see that the colder air is still hanging on in the north coast, with the lighter purple further south. The air is slightly warmer around the high cloud to the south also.

mickger844posts · 23-01-2021 3:55pm

6.2c in Waterford City currently. I would have liked that to be a bit lower of a starting point when the sun goes down.
Uppers around -4c not ideal for when any precipitation arrives later. Also level of precipitation is not great to reach my location so i would be surprised to see any cover of snow here in the morning.
The forecast on my website which is based on the GFS is going for no snow accumulation so i wouldn't disagree with that.
In general well inland better chances of anything substantial.

https://waterfordcityweather.com/wxsimforecast.php

Gaoth Laidir · 23-01-2021 3:56pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

Isn't it the case though that those never go beyond prob 40 because prob 50 and beyond is seen as the more than likely weather
Ergo prob 30 when seen in a Taff's is a significant enough probability

#askingforaramper

PROB30 means "it probably won't happen, but there's just enough of a chance that it's worth mentioning the possibility",

PROB40 means "more of a chance, but still not definite enough to be considered "sure"".

With neither of these qualifiers it means "yep, reckon it'll happen alright".

m17 · 23-01-2021 3:59pm

Derry last night

pad199207 · 23-01-2021 4:13pm

Dew Points not too bad at the moment. Even out west looks agreeable. Bodes well for later

bazlers · 23-01-2021 4:16pm

Kildare looks like doing well from what i see.

JCX BXC · 23-01-2021 4:16pm

4.4°c in West Clare, dewpoint 1°c, shower imminent. I'd imagine rain, but will be interesting to see if we get any snow this close to sea.

JanuarySnowstor · 23-01-2021 4:17pm

Those dew points look very decent!
I'm beginning to think marginal uppers will be compensated by dews, thickness, low ground temps, heavy ppn etc
Its coming folks!!

munsterlegend · 23-01-2021 4:19pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Those dew points look very decent!
I'm beginning to think marginal uppers will be compensated by dews, thickness, low ground temps, heavy ppn etc
Its coming folks!!

When it comes to Atlantic fronts I am always sceptical for down in Cork anyway.

JanuarySnowstor · 23-01-2021 4:23pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

When it comes to Atlantic fronts I am always sceptical for down in Cork anyway.

Yes but if winds stay West or northwest we should be okay though
Icon looks very good with even more snow across the South tomorrow

ffarrell7 · 23-01-2021 4:24pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

When it comes to Atlantic fronts I am always sceptical for down in Cork anyway.

Blanchardstown/Clonsilla in West Dublin officially recorded 60 cm of lying snow from the Beast from the East in 2018....drifts several feet high in Parts of Dublin/Kildare/Wicklow.

2010 was different and of course much colder There was on average about 20/25 cm of full on snowing lying in West Dublin for about 2 weeks and Pat hier snow for several weeks.

The Dublin mountains had literally metres of the stuff.....

ffarrell7 · 23-01-2021 4:25pm

Patchier snow!!

23-01-2021 4:27pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

PROB30 means "it probably won't happen, but there's just enough of a chance that it's worth mentioning the possibility",

PROB40 means "more of a chance, but still not definite enough to be considered "sure"".

With neither of these qualifiers it means "yep, reckon it'll happen alright".

A discussion on this topic on a UK Flyer forum I found had its first 2 replies as follows ,one of them obviously from a ramper

:

Just idly musing....

Over the 25 years I've been flying, my not-very-scientific observation has been that PROB30 means 'almost certainly won't', whereas PROB40 means 'almost certainly will'.

Yet, there never seems to be PROB anything other than 30 and 40.

a) Is this other people's experience too?
b) Why not other PROBs?

1st reply

a) Yes - exactly that.
b) No idea. Most of us seem to have learnt what the code means, which is exactly as you explain it, but perhaps a more intuitive code of these two levels of probability would be PROB10 and PROB90 rather than PROB30 and PROB40.

My other observation is that forecast deteriorations usually happen as predicteds while forecast improvements rarely do.

2nd reply

From my years of ATCOing in Scotland, my experience is...

Assuming it's a degradation of conditions:
Prob30 = almost definitely will happen
Prob40 = completely definitely will happen (or already has, as half the time TAFs seem to be changed to match the METAR)

If it's an improvement:
Prob30 = no chance
Prob40 = also, no chance.

My previous life down south was as described by the OP!

Tyrone212 · 23-01-2021 4:30pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Haven't got a weather station here but there's no snow melt at all other than south facing roofs and the like. It's dry crunchy powder snow even in direct sunlight and no dripping sounds, first proper snow day we've had in a while

Same here i was expecting a thaw but thankfully nothing.

booferking · 23-01-2021 4:30pm

Reversal wrote: »

It's an addition to the later nationwide warning.

ME Harmonie 12z:
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1352969941775953920?s=19

It looks to be out a bit front arrived earlier than what harmonie was showing.

Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

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