Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

lucernarian · 20-02-2018 3:46pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

I will take your 65% which is very good at this range. My biggest fear is the cold heading south into Spain and France so hopefully no sign of that in today's runs.

Indeed it would be, by pressure building over Ireland more rather than Iceland/Scandinavia and also reducing potential precipitation. If this event evolves slowly, it's not a bad sign if it deepens the cold air pool. Just so long as the HP aligns the way we'd like it to.

davidsr20 · 20-02-2018 3:47pm

squarecircles wrote: »

The purple shading in southwest England, -14 !!!

Forgive me but -5 isn’t that extreme or is this an average over the week? I was under the impression we were talking a possible -10 and lower. I remember -18 in Athlone in 2010.

Also thanks to all on here for providing us with the updates on charts etc.

Tabnabs · 20-02-2018 3:48pm

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Why would the BRITISH broacasting corporation have IRELAND in their forecast;)

Because they own the top right hand corner of the island....?

sideswipe · 20-02-2018 3:49pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

Forgive me but -5 isn’t that extreme or is this an average over the week? I was under the impression we were talking a possible -10 and lower. I remember -18 in Athlone in 2010.

Also thanks to all on here for providing us with the updates on charts etc.

Read the following posts after the image you quoted.

Kermit.de.frog · 20-02-2018 3:49pm

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

pad199207 · 20-02-2018 3:51pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

Jesus thats so impressive

easyvision · 20-02-2018 3:51pm

Originally Posted by easyvision View Post
In fairness, I would be highly surprised if this was another 2010. Expecting a downgrade in a few days to sleet and no snow for DUB as usual haha[/QUOTE]

Only because Im used to things failing! i told a few people round me and there just laughing saying, nah won't happen, sure its nearly Spring etc etc. I would be happy with any sticking snow in DUB. has been a looooong time since I saw any proper snow, south Dublin

sjb25 · 20-02-2018 3:53pm

Tabnabs wrote: »

Because they own the top right hand corner of the island....?

Ahem some would say they occupy it

lawred2 · 20-02-2018 3:55pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

is it going to keep coming our way?

Kermit.de.frog · 20-02-2018 3:58pm

lawred2 wrote: »

is it going to keep coming our way?

Yes but the model only runs to 120 hrs, next update shortly.

lawred2 · 20-02-2018 3:59pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes but the model only runs to 120 hrs, next update shortly.

oooooooooohhhhhhh

sjb25 · 20-02-2018 3:59pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

Would you just look at that

pad199207 · 20-02-2018 4:01pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

Yeah ye just look at that and think how de f#*k can anything stop that from making it here!

gerrybhoy · 20-02-2018 4:03pm

Tabnabs wrote: »

Because they own the top right hand corner of the island....?

Bu they dont forecast for the South though thats my point

Hooter23 · 20-02-2018 4:04pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

Forgive me but -5 isn’t that extreme or is this an average over the week? I was under the impression we were talking a possible -10 and lower. I remember -18 in Athlone in 2010.

Also thanks to all on here for providing us with the updates on charts etc.

Yes but the time on that chart is only 6 oclock in the evening and its already well below freezing:eek:

Elmer Blooker · 20-02-2018 4:07pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Met Eireann never go beyond 7 days in a forecast unlike their uk colleagues. I think Friday/Saturday will be soon enough for any warnings.

ME's first mention of snow though very cautious which is to be expected.
This is for early next week.

There is a risk of some wintry showers in some eastern and southern coastal counties and some may be of snow, but mainly dry elsewhere.

Tabnabs · 20-02-2018 4:14pm

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Bu they dont forecast for the South though thats my point

Yeah, but if you watched the video, you'd see the temperature scale for the whole of Europe (where they also don't have an interest in) and the deep cold doesn't extend to the island of Ireland. They place us (North and South) on the margins. That's my meteorological and non political point

Dubh Geannain · 20-02-2018 4:15pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah ye just look at that and think how de f#*k can anything stop that from making it here!

Now I'm no weather expert but this could just work

https://www.facebook.com/events/126766931320280/

:pac:

Kermit.de.frog · 20-02-2018 4:21pm

Tabnabs wrote: »

Yeah, but if you watched the video, you'd see the temperature scale for the whole of Europe (where they also don't have an interest in) and the deep cold doesn't extend to the island of Ireland. They place us (North and South) on the margins. That's my meteorological and non political point

That's because at that particular time, on the ECM model which they are using, a lot of Ireland is under a snow event which would keep temperatures around the freezing point night and day. Frontal troughs bring slightly milder air which gives them their energy. Difference here is it is embedded in exceptionally cold air (the "milder" air is very cold air in itself).

All sorts of dynamics to consider. Does not make it "not severe".

Cantona's Collars · 20-02-2018 4:35pm

Should we run a sweep on when exactly we'll see the first post of "what time will it snow in (insert location here) and will the buses run?".

flanzer · 20-02-2018 4:38pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We will be able to be firmer on details as events creep in to the range of the higher resolution short range models.

It actually looks like it indicates right as the main low touches France and decides to become an easterly for us! :eek::D

BLIZZARD7 · 20-02-2018 5:06pm

That is a superb day 5 chart

UN120-21.GIF?20-17

dacogawa · 20-02-2018 5:15pm

GFS 12z slowed a little bit but still ending in the same place, looking forward to the ECM this evening...

gfs-1-150.png?12

JCX BXC · 20-02-2018 5:15pm

12Z delaying the cold a little bit, not surprising when you consider how far it's been brought forward. Looking good at least!

Youngpensioner · 20-02-2018 5:18pm

I think people are getting carried away. ECM doesn't bring the proper cold until day 10. And talk of 2010 being beat or matched is nonsense, won't come close in terms of cold.

Second cold spell in 2010 from the Northerly, a proper one via a Greenland high Castlederg had temperatures of -5 or below continuously for 187 hours, that's almost 8 full days. 6 of those nights sub -15, a 7th time during the last evening of cold spell at 7pm, a low of -18.7,a daily maximum of -11. Another location near hand beat it with a maximum of -11.3. This won't come close to that anywhere, it was most extreme in Castlederg.

Also yr weather which uses the ECM model data doesn't show anything extreme until day 10, pushed back that the previous ECM run.

Dublin maximums for next week with ECM

Monday 3c

Tuesday 4c

Wednesday 2c

Thursday-2

Belfast

4c,5c,2c,-2 for the same days.

So we're waiting until day 10 before we see anything extreme with the ECM . I think people are getting carried away, yes other models look better but until ECM brings it in closer range I'd urge caution, day 10. The Western 2 thirds of the country look bone dry as well, unless a front from the Atlantic comes in. So much hype for this because areas that don't see much snow, will see snow. This won't be anything remotely like 2010.

davidsr20 · 20-02-2018 5:26pm

Here we go the dreaded slowed and at least phrases lol

dacogawa · 20-02-2018 5:27pm

Youngpensioner wrote: »

I think people are getting carried away. ECM doesn't bring the proper cold until day 10. And talk of 2010 being beat or matched is nonsense, won't come close in terms of cold.

Second cold spell in 2010 from the Northerly, a proper one via a Greenland high Castlederg had temperatures of -5 or below continuously for 187 hours, that's almost 8 full days. 6 of those nights sub -15, a 7th time during the last evening of cold spell at 7pm, a low of -18.7,a daily maximum of -11. Another location near hand beat it with a maximum of -11.3. This won't come close to that anywhere, it was most extreme in Castlederg.

Also yr weather which uses the ECM model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10, pushed back that the previous ECM run.

Dublin maximums for next week with ECM

Monday 3c

Tuesday 4c

Wednesday 2c

Thursday-2

Belfast

4c,5c,2c,-2 for the same days.

So we're waiting until day 10 before we see anything extreme with the ECM . I think people are getting carried away, yes other models look better but until ECM brings it in closer range I'd urge caution, day 10. The Western 2 thirds of the country look bone dry as well, unless a front from the Atlantic comes in. So much hype for this because areas that don't see much snow, will see snow. This won't be anything remotely like 2010.

That's some first post on here, I'm sure the locals will love it :rolleyes:

Anyway, I haven't seen anyone is saying it is going to be 2010, people know it's over the usual 96 hours banking (or 96 mins with snow) people are just enjoying the amazing charts that are coming out and urging caution.

I personally wouldn't agree with your exact forecast and do think yr.no has been a bit off lately but I'm sure we'll see in the next week or so...

TheMilkyPirate · 20-02-2018 5:27pm

ARPEGE develops a shortwave over scandinavia which collapses the high back on top of us. A worry considering its the first high res model in range.

Villain · 20-02-2018 5:30pm

Youngpensioner wrote: »

This won't be anything remotely like 2010.

Who said it will be though?

As I have posted we have seen this go pear shaped but I don't think anyone with any knowledge of chart watching has said it will be like 2010?

Youngpensioner · 20-02-2018 5:31pm

dacogawa wrote: »

That's some first post on here, I'm sure the locals will love it :rolleyes:

Anyway, I haven't seen anyone is saying it is going to be 2010, people know it's over the usual 96 hours banking (or 96 mins with snow) people are just enjoying the amazing charts that are coming out and urging caution.

I personally wouldn't agree with your exact forecast and do think yr.no has been a bit off lately but I'm sure we'll see in the next week or so...

I have seen others say 2010 like, just some, I'm only urging caution and yr forecast is made up of the ECM the best model there is whether people rate it or not the stats back it up. And yes enjoy the charts but nothing to enjoy ECM wise until day 10 so the hype is a bit OTT IMO

Rebelbrowser · 20-02-2018 5:31pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

ARPEGE develops a shortwave over scandinavia which collapses the high back on top of us. A worry considering its the first high res model in range.

All of the 12z runs of the main (admittedly not high res) models I've looked are excellent (eg. GFS, UKMO, ICON, GEM) so I wouldn't be too worried.

squarecircles · 20-02-2018 5:34pm

12z 850 hpa temperatures diluting and pushing back eastwards,sloppy green patches appearing on the west coast,alot less snow from Wednesday 28th onwards

Could be the start of it going pear shaped for Ireland, certainly for the west coast.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 20-02-2018 5:37pm

Villain wrote: »

Who said it will be though?

As I have posted we have seen this go pear shaped but I don't think anyone with any knowledge of chart watching has said it will be like 2010?

There was talk of 1947 just yesterday.

Jumpinjames · 20-02-2018 5:38pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

ARPEGE develops a shortwave over scandinavia which collapses the high back on top of us. A worry considering its the first high res model in range.

Crickey.... is it all about to go pear shaped? Please let this ARPEGE be an outlier and that it will fall back in place with the other models. I live in Clondalkin. We have had two snowfalls this year which hardly amounted to anything and didn’t lie on the ground for more than 12 hours. I need a serious snow fix before April. I feel a bit deflated now.

Beechwoodspark · 20-02-2018 5:38pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

There was talk of 1947 just yesterday.

Someone earlier on said 20% chance of a repeat of 1947.

davidsr20 · 20-02-2018 5:39pm

squarecircles wrote: »

12z 850 hpa temperatures diluting and pushing back eastwards,sloppy green patches appearing on the west coast,Wednesday 28th,

Could be the start of it going pear shaped for Ireland.

Will never just be plain sailing for us will it

SeaBreezes · 20-02-2018 5:39pm

On netweather, they are already comparing charts from 1947 to now..
And theres not much in it, (going on current charts, which we all know could change overnight)

homolumo · 20-02-2018 5:41pm

Keep the faith people; stay the course. It ain’t called a roller coaster for nothing!

Rebelbrowser · 20-02-2018 5:41pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Someone earlier on said 20% chance of a repeat of 1947.

That was me! I know nothing about weather I should add but just saying what the charts say......

squarecircles · 20-02-2018 5:42pm

https://youtu.be/3Zgs4eL3GU8

Hu-ho,And there she goes spilling down Into Iberia.

John.Icy · 20-02-2018 5:44pm

To just analyse the GFS 12z out to +200; actually a little disappointing after several runs in a row of fantastic charts. Orientation of the high isn't great, locking in a more SE/ESE breeze throughout rather than switching to more E/ENE as per previous output. Less favourable track for Irish sea activity for many along the East Coast (still great for some) & as someone else noted some dilution of the colder airmass occurring over us.

In saying that, pointless worrying about orientation of the high and whether we can lock in an E/ENE breeze or what the uppers are like at this stage. Signal for heights to our N/NW & NE is continuing strong and unchanged - wind direction and angle of attack will change from run to run for another few days at least.

EDIT: Looking at the mood of some posters in the last page or so - please don't interpret my post as ''it's all gone pear shaped''. Again, same theme - minor differences in this run compared to previous. No need to panic at all...yet

pistolpetes11 · 20-02-2018 5:44pm

Run to run variations , calm the jets folks

force eleven · 20-02-2018 5:46pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Run to run variations , calm the jets folks

Yes indeed. GFS run is not great at all for coldies. Not disastrous, but more like ECM of yesterday morning. Bin it. Eyes down for the ECM evening run...

squarecircles · 20-02-2018 5:48pm

I'm glad I hadn't got swept away in the tide of euphoria just yet,nor did I decide to glue tennis rackets to my boots,

lawred2 · 20-02-2018 5:50pm

are some people losing heart already?

easyvision · 20-02-2018 5:51pm

See told you, we don't really get snow in DUB! Sleet prob at best and the usual 4C! Grand job! Least there will be no disruption I guess for travelling etc! Be lucky if we get a few stray flakes, quote this post if you want when it doesn't snow

Snowbiee21 · 20-02-2018 5:51pm

lawred2 wrote: »

are some people losing heart already?

They can all they want, one model run and there loosing a run for themselves . Far from over .

Spanish Eyes · 20-02-2018 5:54pm

What weather circumstances caused 2010? Anything similar to this at all.

torres9kop · 20-02-2018 5:55pm

I agree. I cant see much out of this. The usual early load shooters going overboard. So many on here say u cant tell whats going to happen more than 96 hrs out. Yet this is over a week away. Strange

squarecircles · 20-02-2018 5:57pm

The netweather forum must a depressing sight right now,what with its bi-polar tendencies.

On a positive note it's a beautiful spring evening.

Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

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