General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

beggars_bush · 09-12-2019 1:51pm

Aegir wrote: »

it has been acknowledged and apologised for. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50576508

According to Johnson and Cleverly a full investigation will start by the end of the year https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50707997

will they publish that with the Russian interference investigation??

LuckyLloyd · 09-12-2019 2:12pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If this doesn't send shivers down spines in the UK in the week of an election then I think the next decade is going to be a tough one for any moderate UKer.
It must be incredibly scary and upsetting for so many to hear this. It is the kind of thing you might expect to be 'uncovered' or said in private not brazenly spouted in the week of a poll.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969

I like that - as much as it is suppressed and obfuscated - we never have to wait long for a reminder of what Brexit is really about: racism and xenophobia.

droidus · 09-12-2019 2:30pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Biggest car crash interview going on right now with Paul Scully on bbc politics. Shown the widely discussed picture of the child sleeping on a hospital floor in Yorkshire, he actually tries to blame it on labour. Later on, while he is being eviscerated on tory health investment plans, he actually tries to steer the discussion back to the sick child.

Better than Johnson's handling of the story.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736

Letwin_Larry · 09-12-2019 2:31pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I like that - as much as it is suppressed and obfuscated - we never have to wait long for a reminder of what Brexit is really about: racism and xenophobia.

i dont see what the big deal is tbh.
he is taking back control of UK borders, as was promised back in 2016.

actually it will be refreshing to see a poloitcal party actually do what they said they would, or perhaps people have become so accustomed to politicians not delivering on promises, they are actually shocked when it happens!

FrancieBrady · 09-12-2019 2:33pm

droidus wrote: »

Better than Johnson's handling of the story.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736

Bizarre stuff.

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 2:38pm

droidus wrote: »

Better than Johnson's handling of the story.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736

Thats what we needed to see on the nhs issue from the start. I thought the whole thing of labour looking for the smoking gun in terms of privitisation missed the mark. Its an emotive issue and all people need is to believe they cant trust tories and to see them floundering trying to defend cuts. It could be too late now.

Professor Moriarty · 09-12-2019 2:50pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Thats what we needed to see on the nhs issue from the start. I thought the whole thing of labour looking for the smoking gun in terms of privitisation missed the mark. Its an emotive issue and all people need is to believe they cant trust tories and to see them floundering trying to defend cuts. It could be too late now.

Barring a sudden and extreme event, it's all over now. The only question is the size of the Tory majority.

09-12-2019 2:52pm

The UK electorate have - yet again - spoken about their preference for Boris Johnson to be the Prime Minister.

Polling from BMG Research put Johnson at 39% and Corbyn languishing behind on 32%.

Given the many follies of Johnson, it's quite astonishing how Corbyn is not clearly ahead. The reason for that is simple: the UK has no appetite for far-left economics that harks back to the 1960s.

People talk about Brexit as if those of us who support it are somehow nostalgic for the British imperialist past. That couldn't be further from the truth. Brexit is about moving the country forward, not backwards to some immoral imperialist agenda.

What Jeremy Corbyn wants to do is to bring the country forward to the 1960s; a socialist anachronism that will never garner widespread support in the United Kingdom.

quokula · 09-12-2019 2:53pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Thats what we needed to see on the nhs issue from the start. I thought the whole thing of labour looking for the smoking gun in terms of privitisation missed the mark. Its an emotive issue and all people need is to believe they cant trust tories and to see them floundering trying to defend cuts. It could be too late now.

Yeah just focussing on the current state of the NHS would probably be a much more effective tactic than the risk of future privatisation. I can speak from direct experience and it's already on its knees from the last 9 years of Tory rule.

4068ac1elhodqr · 09-12-2019 2:53pm

'Wan from the LibDems was on the screens and radio channels earlier, complete non-stop car-crash.
Very awkward, babbling and keep saying 'you know' at the end of every sentance (clutching for a glimmer of audience synthesis).
More or less a spent force again, for now and for years to come.

Odds benchmark is at 17.5 seats (+/-), of which expect a negative value at market price of @1.83.
Also hinders Labour coalitions, with transfers elsewhere.

Professor Moriarty · 09-12-2019 2:57pm

Tegan Noisy Mulch wrote: »

'Wan from the LibDems was on the screens and radio channels earlier, complete non-stop car-crash.
Very awkward, babbling and keep saying 'you know' at the end of every sentance (clutching for a glimmer of audience synthesis).
More or less a spent force again, for now and for years to come.

Odds benchmark is at 17.5 seats (+/-), of which expect a negative value at market price of @1.83.
Also hinders Labour coalitions, with transfers elsewhere.

Transfers?

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 3:05pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Barring a sudden and extreme event, it's all over now. The only question is the size of the Tory majority.

Dont know really, possibly. John Curtice for one is still expressing caution, telling the bbc yesterday:

****
"The Conservatives are certainly still in pole position, but not necessarily so far ahead that they are guaranteed a majority yet.”

On tactical voting he added: “People tend to decide to do it quite late in the day.

“It is also a relatively small number of people who do it but it can have a big impact.

“It is very difficult to see in the polls in the run-up to an election and that is bound to remain one of the uncertainties hanging over CCHQ in the next new days."
*******

There are still an estimated 3m undecided votes out there so something to play for i think.

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 3:10pm

quokula wrote: »

Yeah just focussing on the current state of the NHS would probably be a much more effective tactic than the risk of future privatisation. I can speak from direct experience and it's already on its knees from the last 9 years of Tory rule.

Yes, can you imagine how other side would be playing it if shoe was on other foot? I bet we would be seeing pics of that sick child near every polling booth in marginal constituencies come thursday. I'm not saying I'd want labour to descend to those kind of cynical stunts, but those individual human stories should have formed the backbone of the campaign, not the threat of something that people cant actually see happening in front of their eyes.

Strazdas · 09-12-2019 3:10pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If this doesn't send shivers down spines in the UK in the week of an election then I think the next decade is going to be a tough one for any moderate UKer.
It must be incredibly scary and upsetting for so many to hear this. It is the kind of thing you might expect to be 'uncovered' or said in private not brazenly spouted in the week of a poll.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969

"You don't belong here, you're just a guest in this country (and don't you forget it), you'll never be part of this nation".......that's what he is effectively saying.

Leroy42 · 09-12-2019 3:10pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK electorate have - yet again - spoken about their preference for Boris Johnson to be the Prime Minister.

Polling from BMG Research put Johnson at 39% and Corbyn languishing behind on 32%.

Given the many follies of Johnson, it's quite astonishing how Corbyn is not clearly ahead. The reason for that is simple: the UK has no appetite for far-left economics that harks back to the 1960s.

People talk about Brexit as if those of us who support it are somehow nostalgic for the British imperialist past. That couldn't be further from the truth. Brexit is about moving the country forward, not backwards to some immoral imperialist agenda.

What Jeremy Corbyn wants to do is to bring the country forward to the 1960s; a socialist anachronism that will never garner widespread support in the United Kingdom.

If you think that 1) there is a simple reason, and 2) that the one you stated is it then you have no appreciation of what is going on in the UK at the moment.

As JC pointed out, even if the Labour manifesto was carried out in full, the spend would still be way behind many other countries in the EU. So very far from what you seem to have been hoodwinked into believing it would be.

KindOfIrish · 09-12-2019 3:11pm

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i dont see what the big deal is tbh.
he is taking back control of UK borders, as was promised back in 2016.

actually it will be refreshing to see a poloitcal party actually do what they said they would, or perhaps people have become so accustomed to politicians not delivering on promises, they are actually shocked when it happens!

BBC: "In the year to June 2019, an estimated 212,000 more people moved to the UK than left. Within that total, the number of EU citizens arriving was its lowest level since 2003. At the same time, net migration from the rest of the world has continued to go up and now stands at an estimated 229,000".
Taking back control my ..rs!:eek:

LeinsterDub · 09-12-2019 3:19pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There are still an estimated 3m undecided votes out there so something to play for i think.

Maybe , maybe not . It looks a lot of them are in the wrong area. https://twitter.com/owenboswarva/status/1204041813352423427

Strazdas · 09-12-2019 3:19pm

KindOfIrish wrote: »

BBC: "In the year to June 2019, an estimated 212,000 more people moved to the UK than left. Within that total, the number of EU citizens arriving was its lowest level since 2003. At the same time, net migration from the rest of the world has continued to go up and now stands at an estimated 229,000".
Taking back control my ..rs!:eek:

Vote Leave claimed EU migration to the UK would be at the rate of 300k+ a year until 2030 at least, adding about 4.5m to the British population.

09-12-2019 3:26pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Vote Leave claimed EU migration to the UK would be at the rate of 300k+ a year until 2030 at least, adding about 4.5m to the British population.

If Remain had won, I have no doubt that the UK would be considered an even more desirable place to settle and countless millions over the next decade would have flowed into the country.

Thank goodness Remain lost.

Speaking of which, it's good to see a Prime Minister articulating strong borders; the need to reduce EU migration and how the UK should not be considered "an extension" of another country. Prime Minister Johnson is wearing Nigel Farage's political clothes now.

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 3:28pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Maybe , maybe not . It looks a lot of them are in the wrong area. https://twitter.com/owenboswarva/status/1204041813352423427

Well, they're first time voters as opposed to undecideds. I dont know whether 3m is entirely accurate for undecideds but it's one I've seen quoted in a couple of places.

Professor Moriarty · 09-12-2019 3:28pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dont know really, possibly. John Curtice for one is still expressing caution, telling the bbc yesterday:

****
"The Conservatives are certainly still in pole position, but not necessarily so far ahead that they are guaranteed a majority yet.”

On tactical voting he added: “People tend to decide to do it quite late in the day.

“It is also a relatively small number of people who do it but it can have a big impact.

“It is very difficult to see in the polls in the run-up to an election and that is bound to remain one of the uncertainties hanging over CCHQ in the next new days."
*******

There are still an estimated 3m undecided votes out there so something to play for i think.

Dunno. Can't see it myself. Straw in the wind, but bookies' odds on a Tory majority gone from 1/3 to 1/4 in past 24 hours. Last ten polls in the past week have the Tories averaging 43%. Fingers crossed that Curtice's theory comes true but it's looking very gloomy.

hometruths · 09-12-2019 3:35pm

Deleted User wrote: »

If Remain had won, I have no doubt that the UK would be considered an even more desirable place to settle and countless millions over the next decade would have flowed into the country.

Thank goodness Remain lost.

Speaking of which, it's good to see a Prime Minister articulating strong borders; the need to reduce EU migration and how the UK should not be considered "an extension" of another country. Prime Minister Johnson is wearing Nigel Farage's political clothes now.

If the Brits are attempting to reduce immigration by making their country a less desirable place to settle they are doing a damn good job!

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 3:35pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Dunno. Can't see it myself. Straw in the wind, but bookies' odds on a Tory majority gone from 1/3 to 1/4 in past 24 hours. Last ten polls in the past week have the Tories averaging 43%. Fingers crossed that Curtice's theory comes true but it's looking very gloomy.

Sure, dont blame you. Curtice could just be being the canny old operator, he'll be happy if his polls are proved right, but if wrong again he can at least point back and say, well i did warn you, didnt I?

Its just clinging to hope at this point - tactical voting, undecideds, new regs etc. All of these would have to go big for labour to swing it enough, its a big ask.

ancapailldorcha · 09-12-2019 3:38pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Sure, dont blame you. Curtice could just be being the canny old operator, he'll be happy if his polls are proved right, but if wrong again he can at least point back and say, well i did warn you, didnt I?

Its just clinging to hope at this point - tactical voting, undecideds, new regs etc. All of these would have to go big for labour to swing it enough, its a big ask.

It's like predicting the weather. All we really have are the best tools modern technology can offer and those are currently imperfect. Curtice is quite open about this.

Ultimately though, it just doesn't make sense that Labour get the electoral spanking that YouGov's MRP predicted. May had ambiguity on her side whereas Johnson does not. Labour in 2017 were on 35% in the latest polls and ended up on 40%. The polls are certainly a useful indicator but all they really are is educated guesses.

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 3:54pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's like predicting the weather. All we really have are the best tools modern technology can offer and those are currently imperfect. Curtice is quite open about this.

Ultimately though, it just doesn't make sense that Labour get the electoral spanking that YouGov's MRP predicted. May had ambiguity on her side whereas Johnson does not. Labour in 2017 were on 35% in the latest polls and ended up on 40%. The polls are certainly a useful indicator but all they really are is educated guesses.

In that mrp poll, i think there were more than 100 constituencies estimated to be within 5% margins which is quite tight when you factor margin of error into it. That was too far out anyway to be a reliable guide.

Also, 2015 - polls on average understated tory lead by 6%, 2 years ago it was overstated on average by 5%.

If they're wrong this time is it more likely to overstate or understate the tory lead? I'd say the former is more likely.

Letwin_Larry · 09-12-2019 3:54pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Sure, dont blame you. Curtice could just be being the canny old operator, he'll be happy if his polls are proved right, but if wrong again he can at least point back and say, well i did warn you, didnt I?

Its just clinging to hope at this point - tactical voting, undecideds, new regs etc. All of these would have to go big for labour to swing it enough, its a big ask.

you're probably correct, but i would use the analogy of a footie match.
you can have favourites, strong favourites and hot favourites, but on the day anything can (and often does) happen.

there are a number of small marginals, where a small shift will have a significant impact, and like those key battles on the football pitch, win those and you can turn the game on its' head.

the only provisio i would add, is Lab need practically ALL of these key battles to go their way. unlikely but it can happen

Professor Moriarty · 09-12-2019 3:58pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's like predicting the weather. All we really have are the best tools modern technology can offer and those are currently imperfect. Curtice is quite open about this.

Ultimately though, it just doesn't make sense that Labour get the electoral spanking that YouGov's MRP predicted. May had ambiguity on her side whereas Johnson does not. Labour in 2017 were on 35% in the latest polls and ended up on 40%. The polls are certainly a useful indicator but all they really are is educated guesses.

Yeah but where would you put your money right now?

During the 2017 campaign, Theresa May literally disappeared from view. Johnson, an infinitely more charismatic figure, has been in the media every day.

From the moment the 2017 election was called, Labour rose steadily in the polls from 25% to 40% - an increase of 15%. In that time, the Tories dropped from 47% to 43%. A drop of 4%

This time around, Labour have gone from an average of 28%, when the election was called, to an average of 33% - an increase of 5%. At the same time, the Tories have gone from an average of 38% to an average of 43% - an increase of 5%.

Sure, the polls aren't definitive (and I hope they're wrong). But they are the best indicator one has. And those indications show two things. The Tories are likely to get a comfortable majority and Corbyn has been hammered by Johnson's relative popularity.

09-12-2019 4:23pm

A slightly disconcerting poll has just been released by ICM Research, which just a 6-point lead for the Tories.

From my perspective, I'm hoping this is a complete outlier.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785

ancapailldorcha · 09-12-2019 4:27pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah but where would you put your money right now?

During the 2017 campaign, Theresa May literally disappeared from view. Johnson, an infinitely more charismatic figure, has been in the media every day.

From the moment the 2017 election was called, Labour rose steadily in the polls from 25% to 40% - an increase of 15%. In that time, the Tories dropped from 47% to 43%. A drop of 4%

This time around, Labour have gone from an average of 28%, when the election was called, to an average of 33% - an increase of 5%. At the same time, the Tories have gone from an average of 38% to an average of 43% - an increase of 5%.

Sure, the polls aren't definitive (and I hope they're wrong). But they are the best indicator one has. And those indications show two things. The Tories are likely to get a comfortable majority and Corbyn has been hammered by Johnson's relative popularity.

I wouldn't to be honest. Jeremy Corbyn won't be governing with a majority, that's the only thing I'd bet on.

May didn't really disappear. She did the Neil interview as well as the staggered debates with Corbyn.

Johnson has largely disappeared himself. His previous articles are getting dragged up repeatedly but the man himself isn't really doing much of anything as far as I can tell.

Sure, the polls are only indicative. It just seems far fetched to me that Labour will haemorrhage seats as they suggest. Some certainly but that many seems a bit much. There just isn't a single positive reason to vote Tory.

Anyways, well know when the exit poll comes out.

Nody · 09-12-2019 4:29pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah but where would you put your money right now?

Knowing the UK? A split parliament without majority for Tories (or a practical majority for Brexit at least) nor Labour + other interested parties ending up with a Tory minority government (in practice) who seeks support on a question to question basis basically. Or in the words of Tom Highway (Clint Eastwood) in Heartbreak Ridge "A cluster****".

CelticRambler · 09-12-2019 4:50pm

NHS being sold off to the US?

Not true!

They're giving it away for free, to that fine up-standing, tax-paying institution and paragon of workers' rights, Amazon Inc.

Amazon has been given free access to healthcare information collected by the NHS as part of a contract with the government.

The material, which excludes patient data, could allow the multinational technology company to make, advertise and sell its own products.

Amazon, which is worth $863bn and is run by the world’s richest person, Jeff Bezos, can then create “new products, applications, cloud-based services and/or distributed software”, which the NHS would not benefit from financially. It can also share the information with third parties.

Whodathunkit. :rolleyes:

Letwin_Larry · 09-12-2019 4:55pm

dunno know about you guys but i cant wait for the results to start rolling in. i'm personally not too bothered who wins/not, but it will be fascinating to see how this actually pans out and the ramifications for not only the UK, but the EU and ourselves as well.

quokula · 09-12-2019 4:57pm

Newest poll has the gap back down at 6% again, in hung Parliament territory. Clearly a lot of variance and still a lot that can happen.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785

ancapailldorcha · 09-12-2019 4:58pm

Best for Britain seem to be in an ebullient mood:

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1203980133201305600

However, given that they'll be tightly hoarding their data, this should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.

hometruths · 09-12-2019 4:58pm

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

dunno know about you guys but i cant wait for the results to start rolling in. i'm personally too bothered who wins/not, but it will be fascinating to see how this actually pans out and the ramifications for not only the UK, but the EU and ourselves as well.

agreed, I suspect this thread might have a few nightowls on Thursday!

Sam Russell · 09-12-2019 5:06pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Best for Britain seem to be in an ebullient mood:

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1203980133201305600

However, given that they'll be tightly hoarding their data, this should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.

I do not think there has been an election in the UK with so much tactical voting being promoted. It is a complete unknown, and could have a massive effect constituency by constituency.

It is all to play for still. Bear in mind that every constituency that May visited was a loss to the Tories.

Zubeneschamali · 09-12-2019 5:08pm

Deleted User wrote: »

A slightly disconcerting poll has just been released by ICM Research, which just a 6-point lead for the Tories.

It's only one point closer than their last one, not a big swing.

ancapailldorcha · 09-12-2019 5:10pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

I do not think there has been an election in the UK with so much tactical voting being promoted. It is a complete unknown, and could have a massive effect constituency by constituency.

It is all to play for still. Bear in mind that every constituency that May visited was a loss to the Tories.

This is not a normal election. Even in 2017, the Conservatives had the advantage of being able to define Brexit depending on who they were talking to. Now, they have been exposed as undermining the economy, security and the union.

Millions of people have marched to stop Brexit. If even a fraction of those who were bussed in vote tactically then it could change things.

Letwin_Larry · 09-12-2019 5:12pm

quokula wrote: »

Newest poll has the gap back down at 6% again, in hung Parliament territory. Clearly a lot of variance and still a lot that can happen.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785

yep i have that nagging feeling that there are a few twists 'n turns left in this race yet.

must admit i thought McDonnell's speech earlier today was very good, he came across as very caring, sincere, and very honest.

Sam Russell · 09-12-2019 5:15pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is not a normal election. Even in 2017, the Conservatives had the advantage of being able to define Brexit depending on who they were talking to. Now, they have been exposed as undermining the economy, security and the union.

Millions of people have marched to stop Brexit. If even a fraction of those who were bussed in vote tactically then it could change things.

As I said, tactical voting has never been deployed before - at least not on this scale.

How many Labour voters will find their hand stayed when the ballot paper is in front of them? 'Remember Thatcher and the miners strike' or 'Remember Thatcher and the Poll Tax' may echo in their heads and their pencil will naturally move to vote as they always did.

One hopes anyway.

Inquitus · 09-12-2019 5:15pm

Personally I hope its either a hung parliament or a Lab/SNP coalition, the latter seems wishful thinking at this stage, even a small Tory majority is probably not good enough to swing the no deal Johnson is mooting.

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 5:16pm

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

yep i have that nagging feeling that there are a few twists 'n turns left in this race yet.

must admit i thought McDonnell's speech earlier today was very good, he came across as very caring, sincere, and very honest.

I think mcdonnell has been excellent, just in terms of how he has elucidated labours position and carried himself under questioning. Seems to have mellowed considerably from his more firebrand days, just consistently comes across well, whatever about the actual merit of those policies.

Professor Moriarty · 09-12-2019 5:16pm

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

yep i have that nagging feeling that there are a few twists 'n turns left in this race yet.

must admit i thought McDonnell's speech earlier today was very good, he came across as very caring, sincere, and very honest.

Absolutely. McDonnell infinitely superior to Corbyn. Which is why he was sent out to bat for Labour in the media whenever possible.

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 5:20pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

As I said, tactical voting has never been deployed before - at least not on this scale.

How many Labour voters will find their hand stayed when the ballot paper is in front of them? 'Remember Thatcher and the miners strike' or 'Remember Thatcher and the Poll Tax' may echo in their heads and their pencil will naturally move to vote as they always did.

One hopes anyway.

I think that's spot on, have said it many times. A hell of a lot easier to state boldly you'll vote tory after a lifetime voting labour, another thing entirely to go into polling booth and actually mark that x. I think it will be beyond a lot of them. Or will just end up staying home which is second best for labour.

ancapailldorcha · 09-12-2019 5:21pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

As I said, tactical voting has never been deployed before - at least not on this scale.

How many Labour voters will find their hand stayed when the ballot paper is in front of them? 'Remember Thatcher and the miners strike' or 'Remember Thatcher and the Poll Tax' may echo in their heads and their pencil will naturally move to vote as they always did.

One hopes anyway.

Yep. If aging Labour voters in the so called "Red Wall" think that the party of privatisation, austerity and abandonment of the North is going to take care of them then they deserve everything they'll get if they vote Conservative.

ArmaniJeanss · 09-12-2019 5:22pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It's only one point closer than their last one, not a big swing.

It's the sort of thing which can rejuvenate a campaign in the closing days though, lots of Labour activists will approach tomorrow with a swing in their step that they otherwise wouldn't have had. Clearly it'll be cherry-picking on their behalf, but that only human.

A decent not terrible poll, and a couple of mis-steps by Boris today (Leeds Hospital incident in particular). Jeremy doing what he does quite well (energetic preaching to a large rally of the converted in Bristol). Being realistic it's probably as good a day as Labour has had.

There's still a plausible theory that voting Tory would be so anathema to the north that the Red Wall will hold even with reduced majorities or increased abstentions. And that conversely the Tory Remain vote might come under pressure because of one too many Get Brexit Done soundbites.

09-12-2019 5:29pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It's the sort of thing which can rejuvenate a campaign in the closing days though, lots of Labour activists will approach tomorrow with a swing in their step that they otherwise wouldn't have had. Clearly it'll be cherry-picking on their behalf, but that only human.

A decent not terrible poll, and a couple of mis-steps by Boris today (Leeds Hospital incident in particular). Jeremy doing what he does quite well (energetic preaching to a large rally of the converted in Bristol). Being realistic it's probably as good a day as Labour has had.

There's still a plausible theory that voting Tory would be so anathema to the north that the Red Wall will hold even with reduced majorities or increased abstentions. And that conversely the Tory Remain vote might come under pressure because of one too many Get Brexit Done soundbites.

There is a theme to this thread.

9:1 polls in favour of a 10-15 point lead for the Tories - conversation talks about how polls can't be trusted/must be questioned.

One minority poll comes out that suggests a 6-point lead and all of a sudden, a Corbyn majority is within view and the polls can be trusted.

I'd say don't take our the champagne yet. Let's see what forthcoming polls show. If trends are anything to go by, we'll see another 10-15% lead for the Tories later today or tomorrow.

Joe_ Public · 09-12-2019 5:44pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is a theme to this thread.

9:1 polls in favour of a 10-15 point lead for the Tories - conversation talks about how polls can't be trusted/must be questioned.

One minority poll comes out that suggests a 6-point lead and all of a sudden, a Corbyn majority is within view and the polls can be trusted.

I'd say don't take our the champagne yet. Let's see what forthcoming polls show. If trends are anything to go by, we'll see another 10-15% lead for the Tories later today or tomorrow.

Who's getting carried away with that one poll? That's actually the second one in past couple of days to show a 6 point gap btw (com res also), but let that pass. I'm not excited by any of them. By common expert consensus they need in the region of 7-8 point lead to guarantee a majority so by any measure this remains in the balance.

Leroy42 · 09-12-2019 5:50pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Who's getting carried away with that one poll? That's actually the second one in past couple of days to show a 6 point gap btw (com res also), but let that pass. I'm not excited by any of them. By common expert consensus they need in the region of 7-8 point lead to guarantee a majority so by any measure this remains in the balance.

Clearly people are not getting carried away with one poll, in fact my reading of many of the posts is that this election has simply too many unusual parts to be able to have confidence in any poll. Tactical voting, the power of Brexit over traditional party lines, the fact that a hung parliament is very much on the agenda, the fact that so many senior party members are coming out against their own party.

Their was also a very large registration drive in the lead up.

So many factors at play, factors that many be very difficult for the polling companies to have taken into account. Although, it is likely that they have taken at least some of them into account.

McGiver · 09-12-2019 5:53pm

schmittel wrote: »

Thick people wrecking it for everybody else. It's as simple as that.

That must be a fairly depressing point of view to hold, especially with such conviction.

I never said thick. I said less educated. You concluded they are thick hence it's your opinion, not mine. You're arguing with yourself.
Is that called a straw man fallacy?;)

General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

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