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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »I'll just leave this here
Pretty much the same pressure and appearance as it will be passing the Azores, according to the ECM...
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Latest NHC discussion. The erc has finished now and it looks like being around 80 knots (~70 knots 10-minute mean) near the Azores and 70 knots (~60-65 knots 10-minute mean) and extratropical by 51N, southwest of Kerry, at 120 hrs.Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019
Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall
replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a
smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new
eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An
eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite
imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity
estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of
T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt.
Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate
that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of
350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very
little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is
expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward
starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western
Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day
3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the
north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue
through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids
and is very similar to the previous forecast.
A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo,
but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation
significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the
intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have
begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that
process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although
Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the
extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the
cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the
end of the forecast period.
Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force
wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of
days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away
from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern
side of the Atlantic basin in a few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 22.5N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Hurricane Lorenzo remains a powerful Category 3 storm with winds near 115mph, however, satellite images appear to show an open eyewall on the southern side, which is doing more than offset the impressive cloud tops in the western side this afternoon. The storm is moving in a north-northwesterly direction, as expected, but forward motion remains fairly modest allowing the opportunity for slight reintensification in light of lower wind shear. The forecast calls for Lorenzo to maintain its general intensity for the next 36-48 hours, with a collapse in the storm's intensity expected around hour 96, when Lorenzo will reach the Azores.
Long range models have shifted back towards a post-tropical impact in western Europe, thanks to a new low pressure system over the north Atlantic influencing Lorenzo's track later on.
Cyclone Destruction Potential Scale rating: 5
Lorenzo threatens to be the most intense hurricane on record for the Azores, with major damages possible on the western islands if the current forecast verifies.
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Met Eireann may well not need to bother with a daily update.
Important to note though this will be chopping and changing for a few days yet but the favoured outcome now is that it misses us and disintegrates to our south.0 -
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »That's tragic.
I'm at a loss to figure out why on a modern vessel they did not steam away from the path of the Hurricane, 60 miles from the centre of a cat 5 is beyond belief she was overwhelmed with the sea went down, you read all the time of cruise liners changing course to avoid hurricanes don't know why they did not.0 -
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Tigerandahalf wrote: »
I take this will be gone by Saturday morning irrespective of landfall in Ireland?
Nope. We'll all be down in the fake capital saving Corkonians from their sunken city 0 -
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The main confusion between all the models is how Lorenzo will phase with that large trough coming off NE Canada. Comparing today's 00Z and 12Z ECM runs for 18Z on Wednesday, the 12Z run has Lorenzo slower to make progress north and therefore misses the ride of the trough, which gets ahead of it and pivots back NWwards, leaving Lorenzo stranded in a slacker more westerly steering flow. This means less upper forcing and a more easterly track towards Biscay.
Earlier runs had Lorenzo further north enough to phase with the trough, which would steer it in a more northerly track and swing it westwards south of Iceland and Greenland. It's a game of inches (on a screen - hundreds of kms full scale) The difference in Lorenzo's location between the two is about 2 degrees of latitude, i.e. 120 NM.
12Z Run
00Z Run
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The 18Z SHIPS (a statistical model) has the centre at 53.7N 13.4W (224 km off our coast) at 18Z on Thursday (120 hours), with an intensity of 30 knots. It's currently 4300 km away from that point now so a lot of water to pass between now and then.
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »Met Eireann may well not need to bother with a daily update.
Important to note though this will be chopping and changing for a few days yet but the favoured outcome now is that it misses us and disintegrates to our south.
If that happens I would consider hugging you even though you are a frog
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Lorenzo is Cat 4, 115 knots again for now but down to TS intensity earlier and more south than previously before reaching Ireland.Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has
been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after
Lorenzo's eyewall replacement. The plane measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112
kt. In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt.
These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which
makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again. The plane also reported
a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb.
Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the
subtropical ridge. The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger
than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge
Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours. After that
period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn
Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion
accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model
and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the
previous official forecast, at least through day 4. Some southward
adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest
global model guidance.
Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day
or so. However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and
decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected
to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3
days. After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with
an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start
extratropical transition. The global models indicate that the
transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the
moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4.
Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical
transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5.
Key Messages:
1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.
2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 23.3N 45.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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