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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**
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Latest microwave now shows that western eyewall closing in a bit again.
The 12Z SHIPS LGEM has the intensity at 46 knots at 120 hours (12Z on Thursday) as it approaches well off the southwest coast (50.6 N, 15.6 W), moving at 33 knots. It has it at around 67 knots near the Azores at 96 hours.
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NHC
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1177924544280969216?s=200 -
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Em, that would be very unusual. I think they mean the other south (i.e. North!)
south of north atlantic?
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »I'll just leave this here
Pretty much the same pressure and appearance as it will be passing the Azores, according to the ECM...
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Latest NHC discussion. The erc has finished now and it looks like being around 80 knots (~70 knots 10-minute mean) near the Azores and 70 knots (~60-65 knots 10-minute mean) and extratropical by 51N, southwest of Kerry, at 120 hrs.Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019
Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall
replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a
smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new
eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An
eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite
imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity
estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of
T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt.
Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate
that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of
350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very
little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is
expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward
starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western
Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day
3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the
north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue
through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids
and is very similar to the previous forecast.
A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo,
but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation
significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the
intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have
begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that
process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although
Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the
extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the
cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the
end of the forecast period.
Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force
wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of
days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away
from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern
side of the Atlantic basin in a few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 22.5N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Hurricane Lorenzo remains a powerful Category 3 storm with winds near 115mph, however, satellite images appear to show an open eyewall on the southern side, which is doing more than offset the impressive cloud tops in the western side this afternoon. The storm is moving in a north-northwesterly direction, as expected, but forward motion remains fairly modest allowing the opportunity for slight reintensification in light of lower wind shear. The forecast calls for Lorenzo to maintain its general intensity for the next 36-48 hours, with a collapse in the storm's intensity expected around hour 96, when Lorenzo will reach the Azores.
Long range models have shifted back towards a post-tropical impact in western Europe, thanks to a new low pressure system over the north Atlantic influencing Lorenzo's track later on.
Cyclone Destruction Potential Scale rating: 5
Lorenzo threatens to be the most intense hurricane on record for the Azores, with major damages possible on the western islands if the current forecast verifies.
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