Property Market 2020

Villa05 · 04-07-2020 12:22pm

Deleted post quote removed.

Mod.

wassie · 04-07-2020 12:44pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Australians and New Zealanders don't have a concept of house price depreciation. If you tried to explain the idea to them you would likely trigger a severe bout of cognitive dissonance.

Nonsense. Perth market peaked in 2014 and has declined or stagnated year on year.

Bass Reeves · 04-07-2020 12:44pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Helpful post!

Ya glad you agree with my sentiments you forgot to thank it

Villa05 · 04-07-2020 12:49pm

A number of factors to consider
WFH will require more rooms in a house and may increase demand and price for large house although this may be less pronounced in Dublin as you are close to work

Further credit tightening by banks may lead to an increased deposit required for an apartment, this may lead to a fall in apartment prices as pool of buyers reduces

Commercial property owners expected to suffer in the Post covid World, many are large institutions with multiple residential and commercial units. They may start offloading some of there residential units to raise cash. Increased supply may reduce price

My uncle did something similar as result of the bedroom tax in the UK. He says it was the 2nd best thing he has done in his life. Improved quality of life substantially

Important

If you are buying and selling at the same time, avoid using the same estate agent for both

Computer Science Student · 04-07-2020 1:37pm

Does anyone have experience with using bidx1 for public auctions?

kippy · 04-07-2020 1:43pm

Villa05 wrote: »

A number of factors to consider
WFH will require more rooms in a house and may increase demand and price for large house although this may be less pronounced in Dublin as you are close to work

Further credit tightening by banks may lead to an increased deposit required for an apartment, this may lead to a fall in apartment prices as pool of buyers reduces

Commercial property owners expected to suffer in the Post covid World, many are large institutions with multiple residential and commercial units. They may start offloading some of there residential units to raise cash. Increased supply may reduce price

My uncle did something similar as result of the bedroom tax in the UK. He says it was the 2nd best thing he has done in his life. Improved quality of life substantially

Important

If you are buying and selling at the same time, avoid using the same estate agent for both

I wouldn't necessarily agree with your last piece of advice. It would strongly depend on the variables but using the same estate agent could work in your favour, especially in a competitive market.

Bass Reeves · 04-07-2020 1:43pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Does anyone have experience with using bidx1 for public auctions?

Are you looking at the mechanism of selling or buying

Hubertj · 04-07-2020 1:56pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

I'm starting to see first signs of a crash.
People are realizing the real state of world economy.

I expect the more things get back to normal, the more Irish prices will reflect reality and begin to crash.

Another wave will delay and worsen impact.

What signs are you seeing?

Empty_Space · 04-07-2020 2:00pm

cnocbui wrote: »

How much work are you seeing on new home building sites?

I was just reading about alarm bells in Vic, Australia, due to a fall in home approvals, the worry being that it will negatively impact the availability of affordable housing. In other words, reduced supply leads to price rises.

We keep hearing about supply. The reality is it is trivial.
People don't understand what a real downturn is as they have no memory of one.

Homes will be built based on how many are needed regardless of whether we are in a upward trend of growth that can never end.

Once things collapse, cost of building will normalize too. What will end is the never ending upward trend of housing. The seemingly sure investment.... The reality is those who have benefited for years will jump ship first.

Hubertj · 04-07-2020 2:00pm

Villa05 wrote: »

A number of factors to consider
WFH will require more rooms in a house and may increase demand and price for large house although this may be less pronounced in Dublin as you are close to work

Further credit tightening by banks may lead to an increased deposit required for an apartment, this may lead to a fall in apartment prices as pool of buyers reduces

Commercial property owners expected to suffer in the Post covid World, many are large institutions with multiple residential and commercial units. They may start offloading some of there residential units to raise cash. Increased supply may reduce price

My uncle did something similar as result of the bedroom tax in the UK. He says it was the 2nd best thing he has done in his life. Improved quality of life substantially

Important

If you are buying and selling at the same time, avoid using the same estate agent for both

Why would you advise against using the same agent? Is it because while they will try it maximise the price they get for you they will do same for property ya are purchasing?

cnocbui · 04-07-2020 2:04pm

wassie wrote: »

Nonsense. Perth market peaked in 2014 and has declined or stagnated year on year.

One provincial, backwater city. The East coast, comprising most of the population, has not seen a slump. I'm from Perth, by the way. House pricees in Perth skyrocketed by 94% in three years, at one point. Think about that for a moment. It was caused by a massive boom in the mining industry and the development of the FIFO (Fly In, Fly Out) work culture where mines attracted labour by allowing them to commute by air from Perth to the mine sites. My brother in law was a paramedic and earned a lot of money flying up to a mine site, spending a couple weeks and then back for a week or more off, all for high wages. A friend of mine who was an excellent Chef with an award winning restaurant, complained to me his business was in trouble because he couldn't afford to hire staff as they were all off FIFOing and working at the mine sites for silly money. This happened all across Perth. Small businesses that relied on staff suffered or failed, even offices emptied of clerks and such who all flew off to the mines for unbeatable pay. Slightly built young women - not your typical vision of mine workers - were in on it, earning an absolute fortune driving tiny little trucks, like this lady:

The demand for labour from the mines was near insatiable, and with the FIFO culture, that meant living in Perth with it's amazing amenities was practical, and people were earning enough in a year or two to buy a house for cash.

All that created a huge demand for housing in Perth, which supply couldn't satisfy with people drawn to the honeypot from the eastern states. When the honey pot emptied, the demand went away and prices crashed. But overall, Australia has not seen a meaningful housing price slump since the 1960's:

There have been dips - but that's all you can call them, lasting a few years at most, not like the 12 year running 50% slump catastrophe Ireland's property market has been.

cnocbui · 04-07-2020 2:08pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

We keep hearing about supply. The reality is it is trivial.
People don't understand what a real downturn is as they have no memory of one.

Homes will be built based on how many are needed regardless of whether we are in a upward trend of growth that can never end.

Once things collapse, cost of building will normalize too. What will end is the never ending upward trend of housing. The seemingly sure investment.... The reality is those who have benefited for years will jump ship first.

A 50% drop in house prices isn't a downturn? I don't understand it even though I have lived through it? What planet are you on? You are right about jumping ship, can't wait. And wrong about supply...

fret_wimp2 · 04-07-2020 2:08pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

We keep hearing about supply. The reality is it is trivial.
People don't understand what a real downturn is as they have no memory of one.

Homes will be built based on how many are needed regardless of whether we are in a upward trend of growth that can never end.

Once things collapse, cost of building will normalize too. What will end is the never ending upward trend of housing. The seemingly sure investment.... The reality is those who have benefited for years will jump ship first.

Theres the scenario where the skills simply disappear.
Cost of building didnt normalize the last time. People with building skills either moved to where they could get the most for thier skills or retrained.

Yes the country will limp along, people will stay in accommodation unsuited to their needs but the fact that they have to means houses they need are not available, by either being too expensive, not being built or sellers doubling down until things settle.

cnocbui · 04-07-2020 2:13pm

After 2007-2008, a lot of the tradesmen left for Oz and NZ. I looked for a German Plumber and rang his umber but he had presumably choofed off back to Germany with his Irish wife.

Empty_Space · 04-07-2020 2:35pm

cnocbui wrote: »

A 50% drop in house prices isn't a downturn? I don't understand it even though I have lived through it? What planet are you on? You are right about jumping ship, can't wait. And wrong about supply...

Property.

This time will be a true depression.

Hubertj · 04-07-2020 3:15pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

We keep hearing about supply. The reality is it is trivial.
People don't understand what a real downturn is as they have no memory of one.

Homes will be built based on how many are needed regardless of whether we are in a upward trend of growth that can never end.

Once things collapse, cost of building will normalize too. What will end is the never ending upward trend of housing. The seemingly sure investment.... The reality is those who have benefited for years will jump ship first.

What costs do you think will collapse? Just prices? Building costs? Tradesmen salaries? Why do you day supply is trivial? If there aren’t enough apartments or houses for people to live in I would say supply is more than trivial.

Computer Science Student · 04-07-2020 3:18pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Are you looking at the mechanism of selling or buying

Buying. There are a couple of interesting properties listed over there but I would prefer the traditional format.

TheSheriff · 04-07-2020 3:29pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

I'm starting to see first signs of a crash.
People are realizing the real state of world economy.

I expect the more things get back to normal, the more Irish prices will reflect reality and begin to crash.

Another wave will delay and worsen impact.

Funny, I am seeing the opposite*

* I'm also not going to back up my statement with any real facts either.

wassie · 04-07-2020 3:36pm

cnocbui wrote: »

One provincial, backwater city. The East coast, comprising most of the population, has not seen a slump. I'm from Perth, by the way.

2 million people in the greater Perth region ain't exactly a backwater.

And that was my point - you painted Australia as a homogeneous market when clearly its not. Each city/state is really its own market and they do not always run in unison as you suggested.

Something akin to, albeit different to Dublin and the rest of the country.

TheSheriff · 04-07-2020 3:42pm

Starting to see alot more supply come on stream now in Dublin which is great to see. Not noticing any decrease in demand, which I think at our price point (400k-500k) is reflected in the CBs info that tax returns have been marginally impacted. Lockdown simply didn't impact the majority of those competing in this bracket.

Prices would be the same as pre Covid. No drastic increases. Harder to get viewings organised however. You can't just rock up out of nowhere for an open viewing anymore, which we regularly did.

We were at two viewings this morning and I can sadly report things are as competitive as ever. Strict time limits enforced for viewings. The next couple were waiting outside as we left.

Did someone say supply was trivial ??

Ozark707 · 04-07-2020 3:45pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Starting to see alot more supply come on stream now in Dublin

I have probably noticed about a 10% increase in supply since restrictions were lifted about 3 weeks ago. Are you seeing more than that?

Empty_Space · 04-07-2020 3:46pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Starting to see alot more supply come on stream now in Dublin which is great to see. Not noticing any decrease in demand, which I think at our price point (400k-500k) is reflected in the CBs info that tax returns have been marginally impacted. Lockdown simply didn't impact the majority of those competing in this bracket.

Prices would be the same as pre Covid. No drastic increases. Harder to get viewings organised however. You can't just rock up out of nowhere for an open viewing anymore, which we regularly did.

We were at two viewings this morning and I can sadly report things are as competitive as ever. Strict time limits enforced for viewings. The next couple were waiting outside as we left.

Did someone say supply was trivial ??

Don't let the herd fool you my friend.

Villa05 · 04-07-2020 3:52pm

kippy wrote:

I wouldn't necessarily agree with your last piece of advice. It would strongly depend on the variables but using the same estate agent could work in your favour, especially in a competitive market.

Hubertj wrote:

Why would you advise against using the same agent? Is it because while they will try it maximise the price they get for you they will do same for property ya are purchasing?

1 in the art of negotiation, information is power. If the estate agent knows you have 580k and your looking for a 2 bed apartment, they would be confident of extracting more out of you

2. To an estate agent price is secondary the most important thing for them is to achieve a sale. Remember EA are either fixed fee or a small % of the sale. Getting a sale is far more important than getting an extra 20k for your property

I've only purchased once and in our searching you could see estate agent leading downsizers on a merry dance. There was even one incident where I bid on a house, another bid came in which was not communicated to me and the next report I got was when I saw it sale agreed on daft
The estate agent was the agent for both the property the downsizers were selling and buying

Achieving a sale is far more important than getting a little extra for the seller

Bass Reeves · 04-07-2020 3:56pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Buying. There are a couple of interesting properties listed over there but I would prefer the traditional format.

If you are buying online you need to set up an account and lodge the equivalent of the deposit before bidding. It's an auction so when the hammer falls you have go buy it no matter what issues you find after.

Expect in general for properties to go 20-50% above guide prices

Villa05 · 04-07-2020 4:02pm

TheSheriff wrote:

We were at two viewings this morning and I can sadly report things are as competitive as ever. Strict time limits enforced for viewings. The next couple were waiting outside as we left.

What happened? you seemed confident of ending your search with a purchase a few weeks ago

neutral guy · 04-07-2020 4:08pm

Guys,do not forget that houses are built on site which cost money also.As said one ex big man from NAMA last year : The sites which was bought by builders was bought ant sky high prices and he wish them Best of Luck make money on them.The timber frame 3 beds could be built at 80K price without wardrobes in it,the question is how much will cost site for it.

TheSheriff · 04-07-2020 4:26pm

Villa05 wrote: »

What happened? you seemed confident of ending your search with a purchase a few weeks ago

Wil update on this properly when not on the phone... Basically radio silence from the sellers side the past month.

Vikings · 04-07-2020 4:52pm

A 4 bed semi D in Lucan with an asking for 450k just went sale agreed for 500k today, 50k above asking.

As someone with credit available to them and looking to trade up to a bigger home in the same area, hard to know what to make of that one!

bbari · 04-07-2020 5:11pm

Being an accidental LL for the past decade and had decided that as soon as current tenants will move out, I'll put the place up for sale. They will be out next week. I have been in 2 minds whether I should put place up for sale or not as wasn't sure what the market is like out there. There are 4 apartments for sales in the block. I called all the agents and 3 of the apartments got sale agreed in last 1/2 weeks 20K (10%) more than the asking price. This tells that there are buyers out there.

What would you guys suggest in this regard?

cnocbui · 04-07-2020 5:18pm

If you sell it, can you invest the money, less CGT, at a rate of return that's equivalent to the rent?

Do you have an urgent need and intended use for the proceeds?

What I would do would depend on the answers to the above.

Springy Turf · 04-07-2020 5:21pm

bbari wrote: »

Being an accidental LL for the past decade and had decided that as soon as current tenants will move out, I'll put the place up for sale. They will be out next week. I have been in 2 minds whether I should put place up for sale or not as wasn't sure what the market is like out there. There are 4 apartments for sales in the block. I called all the agents and 3 of the apartments got sale agreed in last 1/2 weeks 20K (10%) more than the asking price. This tells that there are buyers out there.

What would you guys suggest in this regard?

1.Don’t take Advice from randomers in the internet
2. Unless your apartment is just a small part of a diverse set of investments you should sell
3. I am a randomer on the internet. Don’t listen to me.

bbari · 04-07-2020 5:23pm

cnocbui wrote: »

If you sell it, can you invest the money, less CGT, at a rate of return that's equivalent to the rent?

Do you have an urgent need and intended use for the proceeds?

What I would do would depend on the answers to the above.

Thank you.

It will be sold less than what was purchased for - no CGT.
Net proceeds will be used to pay off PPR mortgage.
I am very clear in my head that I am selling it. Its the timing of it I'm concerned about.

Empty_Space · 04-07-2020 5:24pm

bbari wrote: »

Being an accidental LL for the past decade and had decided that as soon as current tenants will move out, I'll put the place up for sale. They will be out next week. I have been in 2 minds whether I should put place up for sale or not as wasn't sure what the market is like out there. There are 4 apartments for sales in the block. I called all the agents and 3 of the apartments got sale agreed in last 1/2 weeks 20K (10%) more than the asking price. This tells that there are buyers out there.

What would you guys suggest in this regard?

Sell, there will be a small window now while prices hold.
Get rid of it now and you can peacefully watch as prices plummet.

Empty_Space · 04-07-2020 5:24pm

bbari wrote: »

Being an accidental LL for the past decade and had decided that as soon as current tenants will move out, I'll put the place up for sale. They will be out next week. I have been in 2 minds whether I should put place up for sale or not as wasn't sure what the market is like out there. There are 4 apartments for sales in the block. I called all the agents and 3 of the apartments got sale agreed in last 1/2 weeks 20K (10%) more than the asking price. This tells that there are buyers out there.

What would you guys suggest in this regard?

Sell, there will be a small window now while prices hold.
Get rid of it now and you can peacefully watch as prices plummet.

ebayissues · 04-07-2020 5:27pm

Yup, market is very very competitive with so many thoughts going through buyers and sellers head including mine.

Supply & Demand are both big factors. If Demand for properties in desirable areas is greater than supply, people will pay a premium. This will be my bracket in 8/10yrs time.

If there is less supply of properties in cheaper areas and demand is high, properties will go sale agreed at premium over asking. I'm in this bracket now.

I'm certainly not confident the government will build enough houses in the future. Even if they did, it'll take three years for this to happen. Buy now or wait and piss away money on rent.

bbari · 04-07-2020 5:34pm

When I spoke with the 1st agent, he said its right time (small window) to sell and i thought he is just being a sale man. All the other three said the same.

neutral guy · 04-07-2020 6:15pm

ebayissues wrote: »

Buy now or wait and piss away money on rent.

Same boat.
I dont see the difference pay the rent or waste money paying bank interest.
I sure that prices will fall and all money I spent for rent I will get back paying smaller price for the house.
At the moment I see too much talks about house prices what shows that prices will fall.
PA use usual ways to create booming atmosphere on dying markets and media journalists getting regular hamburgers working on PA orders.
The funniest things that people never learn and continue believe to miracles same as 2007.

The Belly · 04-07-2020 6:21pm

ebayissues wrote: »

Yup, market is very very competitive with so many thoughts going through buyers and sellers head including mine.

Supply & Demand are both big factors. If Demand for properties in desirable areas is greater than supply, people will pay a premium. This will be my bracket in 8/10yrs time.

If there is less supply of properties in cheaper areas and demand is high, properties will go sale agreed at premium over asking. I'm in this bracket now.

I'm certainly not confident the government will build enough houses in the future. Even if they did, it'll take three years for this to happen. Buy now or wait and piss away money on rent.

The opposite could happen. If we are heading into a prolonged down turn worse then 10 years ago you could be in negative equity for the next 10-15 years. If it very bad there are few jobs outside the public sector that wont be affected. This my not be a problem for everyone but for some it will.

We are just coming out of lockdown and it will take another few months to get a complete picture of where the economy is going both here and abroad. As a open economy what happens abroad is every bit as important as what happens here.

I doubt property is going to shoot upwards by much in that time.

Waiting to see how things go over the next few months might be the right course of action for some.

neutral guy · 04-07-2020 6:25pm

There will be SUPPLY only and no demand when people will dont have jobs ! Talking about Supply and demand dont forget talk about buying force ! I perfectly remember 2009 when nobody did not build and nobody did not buy !

bbari · 04-07-2020 6:25pm

neutral guy wrote: »

I dont see the difference pay the rent or waste money paying bank interest.

When you pay €1,000 rent, thats €1,000 "wasted".
When you pay €1,000 mortgage, €300 will be "wasted" to pay bank interest and the balance will be paid off the capital.

neutral guy · 04-07-2020 6:31pm

bbari wrote: »

When you pay €1,000 rent, thats €1,000 "wasted".
When you pay €1,000 mortgage, €300 will be "wasted" to pay bank interest and the balance will be paid off the capital.

I tell you simple thing.Taking mortgage now and selling your house later you will never get all your money back !
For example,my friend bought house for 220K in 2004.
He paid back to the bank about 300K
Today his house cost 200K.
And this is Fact !
Any property in Ireland did not brought to any house owner 30 per cent rise in price per last 15 years ! Unless property was bought in recession time.

The Belly · 04-07-2020 6:34pm

bbari wrote: »

When you pay €1,000 rent, thats €1,000 "wasted".
When you pay €1,000 mortgage, €300 will be "wasted" to pay bank interest and the balance will be paid off the capital.

Not entirely correct your forgetting a few others

Property maintenance cost
Property tax
Estate management fees
No flexibilty to move
Negative equity
Interest rate rises

bbari · 04-07-2020 6:42pm

neutral guy wrote: »

I tell you simple thing.Taking mortgage now and selling your house later you will never get all your money back !
For example,my friend bought house for 220K in 2004.
He paid back to the bank about 300K
Today his house cost 200K.
And this is Fact !
Any property in Ireland did not brought to any house owner 30 per cent rise in price per last 15 years ! Unless property was bought in recession time.

Looking at it that way, I agree with you.

ebayissues · 04-07-2020 6:51pm

neutral guy wrote: »

I tell you simple thing.Taking mortgage now and selling your house later you will never get all your money back !
For example,my friend bought house for 220K in 2004.
He paid back to the bank about 300K
Today his house cost 200K.
And this is Fact !
Any property in Ireland did not brought to any house owner 30 per cent rise in price per last 15 years ! Unless property was bought in recession time.

Well, you'll get some of your money back, however as for rent you'll get absolutely zero, big fat zero.

neutral guy · 04-07-2020 7:05pm

ebayissues wrote: »

however as for rent you'll get absolutely zero, big fat zero.

I will get part of my money paid for rent back buying house at cheaper price during the recession.

Bass Reeves · 04-07-2020 10:00pm

neutral guy wrote: »

There will be SUPPLY only and no demand when people will dont have jobs ! Talking about Supply and demand dont forget talk about buying force ! I perfectly remember 2009 when nobody did not build and nobody did not buy !

From about late 2006 on some developers were completing sites before selling houses. This was because banks were willing to find the full development and prices were riding so fast that it seemed a guarantee to make large profits. Banks were lending 110% mortgages to borrowers and 4-5 times wages were not uncommon.

When it started to slow down builders and banks exasperated it. Builders by trying to keep crews together and banks continued to lend to developers. On top of that lending rates went from 2-3% to 5%+

This time banks are not over lending to either developers or borrowers. Builders have no stock of completed houses. This slowdown should beore like 2002-2004 rather than 2008-2014

cute geoge · 04-07-2020 10:37pm

I see a glut of second hand houses after coming on the market in our local town with no drop in asking prices anyway .The government and all the other stake holder will all do there level best to prevent house prices dropping in price .The next 6 months will tell a lot

neutral guy · 04-07-2020 11:28pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

From about late 2006 on some developers were completing sites before selling houses. This was because banks were willing to find the full development and prices were riding so fast that it seemed a guarantee to make large profits. Banks were lending 110% mortgages to borrowers and 4-5 times wages were not uncommon.

When it started to slow down builders and banks exasperated it. Builders by trying to keep crews together and banks continued to lend to developers. On top of that lending rates went from 2-3% to 5%+

This time banks are not over lending to either developers or borrowers. Builders have no stock of completed houses. This slowdown should beore like 2002-2004 rather than 2008-2014

This time lending cockoo funds and leverage investors from abroad what is a lot higher risk investors than local banks in Ireland.So for that reason I suppose the crisis on property market wll be bigger than in 2008.The next thing we forget another important thing as second hand property market which is play his important part of supply also.There will be plenty unemployed builders when recession will be started and bussines on second hand market will back to usual as per 2008 recession.I know the guys who was buying old houses for 30/40K in County Louth and after "some renovation" was selling them for 90/120K.I could buy 2 beds house in cetral part of Dundalk for 23K in 2010 ! Which now cost 95K ! When similar house in 2005 cost 145K !!!The people who has his own way in life and some cash in pocket will enjoy 2021 recession I think.

Dylan94 · 04-07-2020 11:30pm

cute geoge wrote: »

I see a glut of second hand houses after coming on the market in our local town with no drop in asking prices anyway .The government and all the other stake holder will all do there level best to prevent house prices dropping in price .The next 6 months will tell a lot

I am seeing the same in the areas that I am looking at. Has been a sudden surge of houses, all with asking prices similar to what would be expected pre covid.

neutral guy · 04-07-2020 11:31pm

cute geoge wrote: »

I see a glut of second hand houses after coming on the market in our local town with no drop in asking prices anyway .The government and all the other stake holder will all do there level best to prevent house prices dropping in price .The next 6 months will tell a lot

I see them too,some of them 2 years for sale already.

Property Market 2020

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