COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Masala · 17-03-2020 12:18pm #1

Today being Paddy Day 2020... when do you think we will have a ‘flu jab’ / pill / syrup that we can take to make us immune/ les likely to catch this 19 virus?.

Mod: The purpose of this thread is baked into the title - COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures - it's not a platform to push an anti vaccination agenda. If posters wish to discuss the perceived cons of vaccinations, or push various theories regarding 'the agenda' (whatever that is supposed to mean), open a thread elsewhere on it.

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otnomart · 17-03-2020 12:37pm

No idea when.
Researchers are working on it.

Berend-Jan Bosch @UtrechtUni and Frank Grosveld @erasmusuni have discovered an antibody that neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 (and SARS-CoV) and has potential for prevention and treatment of #COVID-19.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1

markjbloggs · 17-03-2020 12:38pm

We'll see a lot of this before a definitive announcement, but take it for what it's worth :-

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3552397-regeneron-advances-covidminus-19-antibody-program-shares-up-10-premarket

irishgeo · 17-03-2020 12:39pm

otnomart wrote: »

No idea when.
Researchers are working on it.

Berend-Jan Bosch @UtrechtUni and Frank Grosveld @erasmusuni have discovered an antibody that neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 (and SARS-CoV) and has potential for prevention and treatment of #COVID-19.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...03.11.987958v1

Our best hope is a drug that's already approved for human use that can be used on covid 19. Should lead to a quicker approval process.

Fr_Dougal · 17-03-2020 12:57pm

2021

Blueshoe · 17-03-2020 12:58pm

Corona virus is here to stay. Just like the common various forms of annual flu.
Expect to be heading for the doctor for an annual injection

Road-Hog · 17-03-2020 1:01pm

Blueshoe wrote: »

Corona virus is here to stay. Just like the common various forms of annual flu.
Expect to be heading for the doctor for an annual injection

Corona virus in various forms mutations I take it you mean. Surely you only need to be vaccinated against CoVid 19 only once...rather than annually

pauldavis123 · 17-03-2020 1:02pm

Still no vaccine for the 2002 SARS so I would not use the this in your long term planning.

scamalert · 17-03-2020 1:11pm

pauldavis123 wrote: »

Still no vaccine for the 2002 SARS so I would not use the this in your long term planning.

they never bothered with it, if you look up any decent source as it was contained.

same goes for this virus, best option now seems get numbers low, and hope it becomes more seasonal, i know its just guessing, but vaccine of any sort carries to much risk, granted could be tested on those critical as a chance, but would take months, existing meds are used off label already but its last case resort on those critical to give them a chance.

as bad as it seems herd immunity might be single thing that buys time, as we dont have most important information on mass population, and if uk wont screw up this could provide real figures, as Chinese cant be trusted, since they show very high rate of recoveries now, but the outbreak seems went flat which by any means in 1.4 bill country seems not plausible, given how rampant it began, as italy surpassed that number already, which gives very mixed results.

Blueshoe · 17-03-2020 1:58pm

scamalert wrote: »

they never bothered with it, if you look up any decent source as it was contained.

same goes for this virus, best option now seems get numbers low, and hope it becomes more seasonal, i know its just guessing, but vaccine of any sort carries to much risk, granted could be tested on those critical as a chance, but would take months, existing meds are used off label already but its last case resort on those critical to give them a chance.

as bad as it seems herd immunity might be single thing that buys time, as we dont have most important information on mass population, and if uk wont screw up this could provide real figures, as Chinese cant be trusted, since they show very high rate of recoveries now, but the outbreak seems went flat which by any means in 1.4 bill country seems not plausible, given how rampant it began, as italy surpassed that number already, which gives very mixed results.

Sars virus is still active in the middle East and kills people every year

JP Liz V1 · 18-03-2020 3:23am

I assume the top minds everywhere are working overtime on a vaccine for Covid19, is 2021 the likely earliest for one, has any trials begun even in China?

VinLieger · 18-03-2020 7:48am

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I assume the top minds everywhere are working overtime on a vaccine for Covid19, is 2021 the likely earliest for one, has any trials begun even in China?

I saw an article claim somewhere was trialing on humans already but dont know if i believe that yet.

From what i have read Canada may be the ones to watch in this regard and not China even though they had it well before anyone else.

plodder · 18-03-2020 8:28am

This is the best article I've found on the vaccine search. TLDR = Trials have already started but they won't be rushed, and the virus is likely to peter out naturally before a vaccine is available.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/when-will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

JP Liz V1 · 20-03-2020 12:32am

plodder wrote: »

This is the best article I've found on the vaccine search. TLDR = Trials have already started but they won't be rushed, and the virus is likely to peter out naturally before a vaccine is available.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/when-will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

cameramonkey wrote: »

From the Guardian,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-update-live-news-who-covid19-cases-outbreak-us-states-uk-school-closures-australia-europe-eu-africa-asia-latest-updates

"A massive effort is under way to develop a UK vaccine for coronavirus within months and make it available to save lives before the end of the year, the Guardian has learned.

Researchers at Oxford University, led by Prof Sarah Gilbert, are planning a safety trial on humans of what is expected to be the UK’s first coronavirus vaccine next month. Provided that goes smoothly, they will move directly into a larger trial to assess how effective the vaccine is at protecting against the infection.

The same vaccine will start animal trials next week at the Public Health England laboratory at Porton Down near Salisbury. Normally, animal work must be completed before human trials can start, but because similar vaccines have worked safely in trials for other diseases, the work has been accelerated.

Prof Adrian Hill, director of the Jenner Institute at Oxford, said:

We are conscious that a vaccine is needed as soon as possible and certainly by June–July, when we expect a big peak in mortality.

This is not a normal situation. We will follow all standard trial safety requirements, but as soon as we have a vaccine that’s working, we anticipate there will be an accelerated pathway to get it deployed to save lives. The more vaccine we can provide sooner, the better."

I believe the US also starting trials

Beasty · 20-03-2020 1:12am

Threads merged

s7ryf3925pivug · 21-03-2020 12:17am

Can't find an existing vaccine thread... In the latest WHO situation report, it says that a vaccine has gone to trial internationally. It is only 60 days since the genetic sequence was made available, so that's an incredible achievement.

That seems very positive. Must look up how often vaccines are successful once they reach this stage.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200320-sitrep-60-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=8894045a_2

The first vaccine trial has begun just 60 days after the genetic sequence of the
virus was shared by China. This is an incredible achievement. To ensure clear
evidence of which treatments are most effective, WHO and its partners are
organizing a large international study, called the Solidarity Trial, in many
countries to compare different treatments.

Beasty · 21-03-2020 12:28am

Threads merged and title updated

s7ryf3925pivug · 21-03-2020 12:32am

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/when-will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

Typically can take a decade or more for a vaccine to complete trials and get licensed, if they do at all. Even at that point there would be issues producing huge quantities of it. 18 months might be a realistic minimum.

irishgeo · 21-03-2020 12:53pm

Treatment with existing approved drugs is better case for trials than a vaccine.

SARS vaccine testing was never completed because the virus burned itself out before it was ready and therefore nobody to test it on and people with money lost interest.

plodder · 24-03-2020 4:04pm

Probably deserves its own thread. An antibody test will show that someone has had the virus and has developed some degree of immunity.

This could be useful for health workers to start with, and then for the general population to allow them to return to work earlier than might have been possible without it.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/can-coronavirus-antibody-test-help-build-an-army-of-immune-medical-workers

OwlsZat · 24-03-2020 4:06pm

Being distributed in the US.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fda-gives-aytu-ok-distribute-134849548.html

amadangomor · 24-03-2020 4:14pm

plodder wrote: »

Probably deserves its own thread. An antibody test will show that someone has had the virus and has developed some degree of immunity.

This could be useful for health workers to start with, and then for the general population to allow them to return to work earlier than might have been possible without it.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/can-coronavirus-antibody-test-help-build-an-army-of-immune-medical-workers

Would be useful for someone like me who is waiting for test but has had symptoms for 3 weeks now. I might have had the virus but may pass the PCR test as the active virus may be absent.

Beasty · 24-03-2020 4:17pm

Threads merged

JP Liz V1 · 31-03-2020 12:18am

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/johnson--johnson-is-already-ramping-up-production-on-its-1-billion-coronavirus-vaccine/

Johnson & Johnson Is Already Ramping Up Production On Its $1 Billion Coronavirus Vaccine

stockshares · 01-04-2020 12:13am

I wasn't sure whether to start a new thread.

What is the state of testing up to today the 31st March 2020?

I have these stats but am not sure if they are correct.
Total tests taken 30,213
Daily tests being taken 5000
Daily tests being run in Lab 1500
Daily lab tests target 10000-15000
AVG wait to get test taken 7-14days
AVG wait to get test result
Waiting for ReAgent delivery 10 days.

JP Liz V1 · 04-04-2020 10:48pm

British American Tobacco (BAT) has become the latest firm to offer hope of a Covid-19 vaccine after revealing a breakthrough with its tobacco plant technology.

The UK-headquartered group said its US-based biotech business has been working on a potential vaccine for Covid-19, which it believes could offer up to three million doses a week from June,

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8175855/BAT-claims-Covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-using-tobacco-plants.html

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-04-2020 3:35pm

Given its importance and I'd guess it has the best minds developing it as number one priority, how can it take so long? Genuinely curious, I know it needs human trials. Interested to see what the steps involved and the usual delays etc.

wotzgoingon · 13-04-2020 3:37pm

MattS1 wrote: »

Given its importance and I'd guess it has the best minds developing it as number one priority, how can it take so long? Genuinely curious, I know it needs human trials. Interested to see what the steps involved and the usual delays etc.

Well considering it's a virus and there is no cure for any virus even before covid 19.

EmptyTree · 13-04-2020 3:42pm

It's not like a drug that is given to (usually) sick people. With the typical drug clinical trials are more straightforward because it is easier to determine if the drug is having the desired effect or not. With a vaccine you are giving it to a largely healthy population so determining if it works or not takes longer. Also, with a vaccine you are giving it to a larger population of people i.e. Different ages (children and adults) which may also have other conditions, so safety data for this wider population is also required.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-04-2020 3:49pm

EmptyTree wrote: »

It's not like a drug that is given to (usually) sick people. With the typical drug clinical trials are more straightforward because it is easier to determine if the drug is having the desired effect or not. With a vaccine you are giving it to a largely healthy population so determining if it works or not takes longer. Also, with a vaccine you are giving it to a larger population of people i.e. Different ages (children and adults) which may also have other conditions, so safety data for this wider population is also required.

Makes sense but I wonder is it even possible to develop a drug that combats the disease effects? As in a reactive approach as well as a proactive vaccine.

EDit · 13-04-2020 3:55pm

I work in pharma, but not vaccines, so bear in mind this is my opinion, not fact. That said, I’d imagine the biggest issue is safety and the need to assess that safety over a long period of time. The issue of safety (which is important for all medicines) is compounded in the case of vaccines because so many people receive the treatment and those people are healthy.

For example, say you have a drug for a relatively rare form of cancer that causes spontaneous fatal heart attacks in 0.01% of patients. If only 10,000 people globally are treated per year with this drug and they all have a high chance of dying of the cancer, then the 1 person dying of a heart attack every year might be considered an acceptable risk in the grand scheme of things. However, if a vaccine for something like Covid-19 caused spontaneous fatal heart attacks in 0.01% of people over the 5 years following vaccination, and the vaccine was given to a billion people, then that’s 100,000 healthy people dropping down dead from the vaccine. This is an extreme example, but it shows how important it is to know about even very rare side effects.

xElDeeX · 13-04-2020 4:10pm

Heath Panicky Whirlpool wrote: »

Given its importance and I'd guess it has the best minds developing it as number one priority, how can it take so long? Genuinely curious, I know it needs human trials. Interested to see what the steps involved and the usual delays etc.

So when a drug is developed, it is tested first in very small numbers, usually in healthy male volunteers in phase 1 trials. These initial tests will gather some information on whether it works but but are more about checking if it is tolerated i.e. no immediately noticable side effects. Then you test in larger groups and various doses as the trial goes on - some at the eventual dosage level but also higher and lower to figure out how the drug responds to the body and the body to the drug. All the time you are gathering and analysing data to see if you have a good enough response and low enough side effects to continue.
So imagine you are doing this but also have to test for every age group l, pregnant women and women of childbearing age, that are usually excluded from clinical trials. Also even if all well, it works and is safe you then need to grow enough vaccine to distribute to the whole world. Flu vaccine can grow in chicken eggs but coronavirus vaccine can't so the process is not in place to quickly get that up and running like if it was a variant of the seasonal flu.
I'm by no means an expert but those are a few of the reasons why it takes a while.

Beasty · 13-04-2020 4:12pm

Threads merged

JP Liz V1 · 13-04-2020 9:12pm

Maestro85 wrote: »

Thoughts on this.

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=229893

American friend of mine told me today that this is going to be the new Hail Mary pass that will be talked about in the US like chloroquine.

TLDR: Anti-Parasite Drug Ivermectin Stunts COVID-19 Virus Culture in Lab Study

Ivermectin (for head lice) possible cure

Jurgen Klopp · 13-04-2020 9:16pm

It's possible a vaccine could be rushed through again.

Swine flu was classed a pandemic of an April with a vaccine that November. 1 in 55,000 developed narcolepsy.

However I wouldn't be surprised seeing for this waved through too.

Harry Palmr · 17-04-2020 11:21am

World's biggest trial of Covid-19 drugs starts in UK

Sarah Boseley Sarah Boseley
The world’s biggest trial of drugs to treat Covid-19 patients has been set up in the UK at unprecedented speed, and hopes to have some answers within weeks.

The Recovery trial has recruited more than 5,000 patients in 165 NHS hospitals around the UK in a month, ahead of similar trials in the US and Europe, which have a few hundred.

“This is by far the largest trial in the world,” said Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases and global health at Oxford University, who is leading it. He has previously led Ebola drug trials in west Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

The Recovery team expects to be the first to have definitive data. “We’re guessing some time in June we may get the results,” said Horby.

“If it is really clear that there are benefits, an answer will be available quicker.” But he warned that in the case of Covid-19, there would be no “magic bullet”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/world-biggest-drug-trial-covid-19-uk

Website for this trial
https://www.recoverytrial.net/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXK2Xh2AAm4

ShineOn7 · 18-04-2020 8:54pm

https://www.newstalk.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-ready-early-september-scientist-claims-998676

Poll to follow ...

c montgomery · 18-04-2020 8:57pm

No, as I don't believe there will be one until at least October 2021

ShineOn7 · 18-04-2020 8:58pm

Poll added

Personally, I'm not sure. It really depends on where we are in September with this thing. A rushed vaccine sounds risky

Danzy · 18-04-2020 8:58pm

The first months of it will probably be just for over65s.

Still waters · 18-04-2020 8:59pm

c montgomery wrote: »

No, as I don't believe there will be one until at least October 2021

What would you base that on

c montgomery · 18-04-2020 9:05pm

Still waters wrote: »

What would you base that on

Work in Pharma
Any drug I've been involved in has at least 9 years development before it went to market
With a rush job and corners cut maybe they could have one in 18 months.
In reality I think it will he 5 years

ShineOn7 · 18-04-2020 9:18pm

c montgomery wrote: »

In reality I think it will he 5 years

Jaysus. I don't like the sound of that, especially if you work in Pharma and have experience of this

So much money is being thrown at this though. And there's so, so much money Big Pharma will make on the vaccine. Doesn't that play a part in expediting this?

Last I checked (a few days ago) there was some 70 vaccine trials currently in play. There's probably more since

Beasty · 18-04-2020 9:21pm

Threads merged

c montgomery · 18-04-2020 9:23pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Jaysus. I don't like the sound of that, especially if you work in Pharma and have experience of this

So much money is being thrown at this though. And there's so, so much money Big Pharma will make on the vaccine. Doesn't that play a part in expediting this?

Last I checked (a few days ago) there was some 70 vaccine trials currently in play. There's probably more since

The story of 70 vaccines in trial I find worrying,sounds like anyone with a lab is knocking one up.

Harry Palmr · 21-04-2020 10:32pm

UK starts trials start on THursday - the Uk gov is backing two possible vaccines to the combined sum of about 50 million quid - one Oxford, the other Imperial they are taking very different paths, one is an adapted simian virus (Oxford) while Imperial Collage is tweaking the Covid 19 to basically attack itself.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oxford-university-coronavirus-vaccine-to-begin-human-trials-on-thursday-as-uk-throws-everything-at-vital-breakthrough-2020-04-21

https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/1252633575956119552

https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/1252675809128611846

https://covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/about

ShineOn7 · 23-04-2020 12:57pm

This is a little disconcerting. I think we need to start hoping more for very effective treatment rather than a vaccine

"We've never made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is why it's so difficult"

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12146616?fbclid=IwAR01dhqZCkmqdP094FFKKMC5GTwO31MUGwSmKeZ8sMHqdMB6-Hd_wBh-zMI

hmmm · 02-05-2020 3:19pm

I thought it might be useful to have a thread where we could track vaccine development. It's going to take a long time to complete trials and manufacture billions of doses, but at least when we know one works we'll also know the end of all this will be in sight.

I'd ask those of you who are sceptical of vaccines, or believe we'll never have a vaccine, to please leave this thread alone - there's lots more places for your views.

To get started, here's a great overview of where vaccines are currently at, who's making them, who they have partnered with, where they are along the clinical trial path:
https://www.biocentury.com/article/305091