Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

It seems that hidden away in the legislation is an attempt by the Tories to essentially make Johnson and his cabinet all powerful without parliamentary debate or vote. Any MP concerned about democracy in the UK will reject the the WAB and not give in to Johnson. All the opposition should be stating no election until the WAB passes the committee stage at least

https://infacts.org/johnson-tries-power-grab-worthy-of-henry-viii/

https://twitter.com/InFactsOrg/status/1188509433581711360

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

But having secured a peace and especially after setting a working model of power sharing, its going to very difficult for many unionists to go out and protest to the same level.

It's hard to see how someone can rise up in unionist circles to the level now to become a focus point to lead such discord. Historically Gerry Adams became the face of republicanism because of the treatment of nationalists, and Big Ian the focal point of a response to IRA violence, both extreme positions.

The fact that SF have basically stayed quiet on the issue just points out to unionists that they don't have their traditional enemy to blame and to go out and protest is just a signal to the Tories that they are troublesome and the tories should go ahead and lance the British boil by instigating a border poll.

I agree with you on some points, primarily the fact that during the troubles, tribalism was far more concentrated for Unionism. Although i would argue that Brexit is very polarizing as a cleavage in UKNI politics, it is not as harsh as the troubles era Green/Orange battle lines.

But a few points to consider if i may highlight them

• Green/Orange during the Troubles was one cleavage which has become watered down since the GFA - which is a great thing of course. Unfortunately Brexits Remain-Soft/Leave-Hard is the new cleavage now, and due to the fact that it was unionists who predominantly voted to leave during the ref, these two cleavages are now re-enforcing one another - Green/Orange is now strengthened by remain/leave. Individually, neither is as damaging as the troubles era conflict, but together they are corrosive to stability in northern Ireland politics. And lets be honest stability was never the first word that came to mind when you thought of northern Ireland
• Your point on Power sharing would be valid, if power sharing was actually working, which alas it is not. Arguably since Ian Paisley Snr left the political arena the Unionists have become far more corrosive in their dealings within the stormont assembly. Even before Cash4Ash it was clear to many spectators that the DUP used their POC/VETO in a simplistic bullying way, to halt anything and everything they wanted. And what they wanted was to prevent the nationalists from having their way. Even on issues where there seemed general consensus, the DUP veto-ed. Marriage Equality for example. Its clear that the majority in NI didn't mind Gay Marriage, and this point is only amplified by the fact that it is now legal, and there aren't massive protests against it. The DUP voted against and vetoed it because nationalists are for it. So while we have a 'working model of what Power sharing could be' - we also have ample evidence that power sharing will collapse as long as its the DUP who have the largest Unionist vote. Unless this changes, Power sharing will remain in a coma on life support. Direct Rule will be the future of NI Politics, in stark opposition to the GFA, and that suits the Unionists down to the ground. While yes they might have to suffer abortion and gay marriage courtesy of Westminster, its better than having to give in, and go back into coalition with Sinn Fein. They never wanted the GFA, in my opinion they wont be too fussed if it vanishes. And as always it will be Nationists/SF/Irish who will be blamed. 'Truth' will have nothing to do with this spin
• I think its definitely a good thing that Sinn Fein and nationalists keep a lid on triumphalism during this turbulent time. Personally i am pleased that they haven't thrown salt on the wound. However i would prefer if the talk of a United Ireland, and border polls was shelved for now. Talking about Border polls is only going to help the DUP unite the Unionist communities in the north. And i say again, that the precedent of Sunningdale shouldnt be forgotten. 'A united Ireland is only one Sunningdale away' - that was the argument which United Unionism/Loyalism to destroy that agreement.
• If Direct Rule comes back for the foreseeable future, Nationalists will not be happy, and imho that would be the moment when we are moving dangerously close to reigniting the divide in NI

Russman wrote: »

I broadly agree with you here, but it also highlights two things for me:

1) They’re still in the realm of unicorns re the Union being altered. It’s simply not possible to have as hard a Brexit as TM wanted and not change the Union to some degree or other. Whether they realised that in 2016 or not is neither here nor there. It’s like voting to cut your arm off because your finger is sore, but demanding you still have two arms, and insisting it’s up to the doctor to compromise.

2) the inherent hypocrisy of the DUP. When it’s pointed out that NI voted remain they insist it was a UK wide vote and that’s what needs to be respected. Yet when the UK parliament decides on a withdrawal agreement for the “good” of the UK as a whole they scream bloody murder about their wishes not being respected.

I don’t know how it plays out, but I suspect it’ll take the hardship biting hard to bring sense to them both up there and across the water via the farmers, traders and any normal people, because the hard core aren’t for learning and if they’re pandered to further it damages us in the republic.

I would agree with your points. Leaving the CU/CM was always going to damage the union, and i suspect the DUP were banking on this ending the other way around for them. Namely that the Brexit border would be around the 6 counties. Brexit presented them with an opportunity to do something that would otherwise have been impossible within the GFA. It gave them the opportunity to divide the island of Ireland more than it already is. It was an irresistible opportunity for them, and in the days after the Ref this became very clear

https://twitter.com/keithbelfast/status/834548717168492544

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DUP's Nelson McCausland in his absolute element - No plans and no cares for the people of NI. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NolanLIVE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw&quot;&gt;#NolanLIVE&lt;/a&gt; <a href="https://t.co/NgppBKIw6l">pic.twitter.com/NgppBKIw6l</a></p>&mdash; Keith Anderson (@keithbelfast) <a href=" 22, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js&quot; charset="utf-8"></script>

Unfortunately for them the GFA proved more important to the EU, Ireland, and to large chunks of the British Parliament than they banked on. And they are suffering the consequences.

This situation is a tangle to be sure, and the only true way of avoiding Brexit created trouble in the north would be to scrap brexit, or have a Soft Leave CM/CU exit. And that can only happen in the HOC - will it?? NOPE

The situation in the HOC is insane. We now have an extension but Labor wont vote for an election. Labor have moved from 'Get extension and have a GE' to 'Got extension, get brexit sorted and then GE' - For anyone in any doubt on my nature as a leftie read my previous posts. Corbyn is ruining Labors chances now. They will sink further in the polls with this latest round of nonsense. And wasnt Corbyn supposed to be the great campaigner?

Im happy to debate these issues, but its clear to me that this latest extension probably wont be the last now. Nothing will change without a second ref and/or a GE. We wont get a 2nd ref from the current parliament, and Corbyn wont let an election happen because he will probably lose

What happens to the rebel alliance now?

Universities break fro Christmas on the 9th, all gone home by the 12th. Actually could be quite important in Johnson's own Oxbridge constituency.
Young inclined not to vote Tory. Lb candidate in Oxbridge is young and a recent graduate also.

12th could also be critical in terms of restricting whether new parliament could actually convene before xmas recess. Very limited time in january to get things together as clock winds down. Thats a very conspiratorial view but with this administration, couldnt rule anything out. Those 3 days are obviously critical and that might be just one reason why.

gooch2k9 wrote: »

He's just made a written statement that he'd recommend reconvening on the 23rd December.

Ok thanks, hadnt seen that.

liamtech wrote: »

Corbyn hasnt got a leg to stand on anymore.



Thats exactly it.

Labor COULD be the party properly opposed to Brexit. They could be attacking the very essence of what Brexit Is.

• How devisive and damaging it is to GB and NI
• How even a soft Brexit will harm britains economy, and the fact that GB would then become the rule taker as opposed to a rule maker
• How a Hard Bojo Brexit is even more damaging, and highlighting the ridiculous nature of banking on foreign trade deals, which as of yet cannot be agreed
• How corrosive Brexit is to the Union - Northern ireland is only one part of this - Scotland will leave (regardless of whether you agree with scottish independence or a United Ireland this argument is credibly against Brexit)
• How the No Deal brexit that some prefer, would be the mother of all disasters for the UK, effecting the economy, jobs, trade, and britains standing within the G7 and the world as a whole
• The icing on the cake to these arguments would be to highlight the benefits of EU membership, and the lies that led people to vote the way they did in 2016

Instead we have Jeremy Corbyn. He fancies his chances of negotiating a brexit, and wants his chance. He would then allow the majority of the Labor Party to vote against this deal.

He wants a general election when no deal is off the table and an extension has been given.. oh.. wait.. i mean.. He wants a general election once brexit is sorted??????? ??????? Lets be clear Jeremy wants an election the moment Labor start to increase support in the polls, and the Tories start to slip - period

He wont co-operate fully with other Anti-Brexit parties, which will only serve to divide the remain vote.

And in all honesty his opinion on a second referendum is questionable given his own comments.

Its a sad fact but the moment TM started to highlight her Hard brexit leaving the CU/CM - Labor needed to elect a remainer as leader of the party. Corbyn, who is clearly Euro-skeptic, should have stepped aside. He didnt - and here we are now.

Corbyn is banking on BoJo's support slipping the longer he is held powerless in Number 10 - ok its a tactic - is it country First or party first??? And refusing a GE, because Labor is low in the polls.. is that country or party first???

When you're in a fight, what matters is not how good you are but how good your opponent is. Johnson looks across the floor of the house and thanks his lucky stars.

liamtech wrote: »

Corbyn is banking on BoJo's support slipping the longer he is held powerless in Number 10 - ok its a tactic - is it country First or party first??? And refusing a GE, because Labor is low in the polls.. is that country or party first???

It's a tactic, but is it even a sound one? It seems to be based on the assumption that as Conservative support falls, Labour support either goes up, or at least remains relatively stable. In actuality, I think the public would grow p*ssed off with both parties, and while Labour may not make out too badly, they run the risk of something much more terrible, which is total public disillusionment with politics and the extreme elements who feed on that coming in and feasting.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It strikes me that now that Johnson has confirmed if the election goes through this evening parliament will reconvene before Christmas - it means Labour don't have a leg to stand on in objecting to it.

It means no deal is off the table.

If Labour don't vote for an election today they will look like they were scared to face the electorate and will hand all the initiative to the Lib Dems.

Well, as i read it above, johnson "recommends" parliament convenes before xmas , hardly "confirms" it. Not exactly a die in a ditch come what may promise is it? Though given his horrendous record with those, that might actually make it all the more convincing.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Well, as i read it above, johnson "recommends" parliament convenes before xmas , hardly "confirms" it. Not exactly a die in a ditch come what may promise is it? Though given his horrendous record with those, that might actually make it all the more convincing.

Taken from The Guardian live feed;

In line with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the date of parliament’s return will be set by royal proclamation following dissolution, and I will recommend to the Queen that the first meeting of the new parliament takes place before 23 December.

so it's a recommendation made to the queen so probably fairly solid. He won't want to make a habit of dragging her into things.

I saw Jess Phillips the other day saying about who wants a general election in December? Going around, knocking on doors in the dark etc. They're meant to be held in April and May, not the dark winter months, she said. I take the point that the depths of winter is not the nicest time to go canvassing, but these are trying times in British politics.

Tom Newton Dunn thinks Labour might vote for a GE tomorrow. An election in December is beginning to look highly likely:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1188822382829592576

Pretty snookered is right, and they played themselves into that position.

Strazdas wrote: »

Their internal divisions seem huge (suggesting Corbyn is an extremely divisive figure). They can barely agree a position on anything.

Labour divided and People's Vote divided. Not a good time to be a Remoaner.

Eric Cartman wrote: »

id say he just wants to get the DUP out of the way and replace them with the brexit party or almost anyone else who'll actually allow a deal go through.

Its also a safe bet with corbyn at the helm, labour completely unelectable.

He'd only get them if he committed to a no deal exit, which I'm not sure he really wants to. That's if the BXP even get any seats. This FPTP nonsense makes the general polls a poor indicator of how many seats a party will get. I far prefer the ones that do the actual calculation of seats.

gooch2k9 wrote: »

He'd only get them if he committed to a no deal exit, which I'm not sure he really wants to. That's if the BXP even get any seats. This FPTP nonsense makes the general polls a poor indicator of how many seats a party will get. I far prefer the ones that do the actual calculation of seats.

There must be some pollsters out there doing a voting intention by constituency type thing and tabulating projected seats from that?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Tories will have a simple message - "we have a deal, vote for us and we leave the EU".


Not sure the Brexit party's message of "scrap that and leave with no deal" will gain serious traction against that argument with voters.

I expect the Tories to get a comfortable majority of seats which will enable the deal to be quickly ratified.

Labour are unelectable.

It's a home run for the tories.

And it's strange because the SNP and LD are against a Brexit of any type and yet they're poised to back a Dec 9th election which could well give the Cons a functional majority to deliver Brexit on. How are those parties explaining that to themselves and their voters?

Boris just smacked down Ian Paisley jnr in the commons who asked whether the PM would seek to change the agreeement.

To paraphrase "This is the deal we will be campaigning on and tough basically"

What are the bookies saying on the GE at this point?

I am in the US and Paddy Power is Geo-blocked.

Tell me how wrote: »

What are the bookies saying on the GE at this point?

I am in the US and Paddy Power is Geo-blocked.

Approx best prices.

Most Seats.
Cons 1/6. Labour 8/1. Libs 30/1. TBP 40/1.

Overall Majority.
Cons Evens. No Overall Majority 5/4. Labour 25/1. Libs 66/1. TBP 100/1.

briany wrote: »

The Lib Dems have styled themselves as a party that are anti-Brexit. If they're set to gain seats just because they're the only palatable alternative to Labour in certain constituencies, then yes, I guess they will gain seats. If they're set to gain seats because of their unabashedly Brexit stance then they're going to have a tough time standing on doorsteps explaining why it's a good idea to have an election when an election may actually help Brexit to happen, thereby ending LD's promise of being against Brexit, or at least having a second referendum.

In fairness they haven't stood for anything other than trying to increase their own power for some time. They've been cynically using remainers for some time, while abandoning any principals that could be called "liberal" in favour of welcoming in MPs of any colour that will help boast their number.

I suspect a general election campaign will start bringing their hypocrisy into sharp focus, while Labour provide a genuine realistic path to a second referendum between something like EFTA and Remain.