Strong Winds for Munster, Connacht and Leinster : PM 17th/AM 18th, Jan 2018

Meteorite58 · 15-01-2018 6:45pm

Yes the Storm has been brought further S bringing more areas into the stronger winds I would have thought. The GFS showing the track further S then the others at present and showing it exiting the E far quicker which makes me think it might be a bit of an outlier. For the last few runs and the most recent 12Z I would think it is presently looking in the Level 2 Orange range and perhaps level 3 Red in places. That is gusting 110 to maybe close to or over 130 km/h, maybe more on the coasts . I say presently as the track has shifted more S and is still around 50 hrs out.

IMO Having watched this over the last few days and bearing in mind the very fast jet stream over us I think this is going to be the strongest storm this winter for many parts.

Oneiric 3 · 15-01-2018 6:49pm

Hirlam 12z for Wed 18z (gust speeds)

squarecircles · 15-01-2018 7:13pm

"May you live in interesting times."

To me it looks like a serious wind event,the ones that blow up further on exiting Ireland and the British isles, developing further as it enters the North sea and impacting the Benelux countries,these tend to be the most severest wind events,approaching Ireland in their infancy and then developing rapidy as they approach mainland Europe.

In these circumstances we usually experience a glancing blow but damaging none the less as with storm Eleanor.

Locally Red alert levels in western coastal extremities, but given the isolated and unpopulated nature of such areas,more an orange warning generally.

(Personally,living on an exposed west facing coast in Mayo,I'm red alert as of now!,meteorite58's analysis is very good)

Say my name · 15-01-2018 7:17pm

Villain wrote: »

GFS 12z has shifted it South by about 100 miles with gusts reduced.

That means a bit more of the country affected by snow instead of rain.
I'm going on what the weather presenter on countryfile said yesterday.
Snow on the northern flank of the low.
Rain on the southern flank.

BLIZZARD7 · 15-01-2018 8:26pm

ECM 12z also has this low further south, much more of a shift south and some parts may end up on the cold side of the low...

giveitholly · 15-01-2018 8:26pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

ECM 12z also has this low further south, much more of a shift south and some parts may end up on the cold side of the low...

What parts at the moment

Meteorite58 · 15-01-2018 9:03pm

Yes a big shift from the ECM 12Z and looking less severe then it's previous run. Maybe the GFS was not an outlier after all. The Low is less developed in this run and it does not seem to develop as deep after it clears Ireland as in previous runs.

Might have to revise my previous prediction

M.T. Cranium · 15-01-2018 9:34pm

18z CMC analysis has it only 1018 mbs so far, around 37N 68W, and this weakening trend appears to be a result of slower deepening first 24h as it will be fighting to get past a large area of arctic high pressure over eastern Canada.

After that it would enter a much stronger area of jet stream winds, and while it has had this weak start, the satellite presentation shows a fairly extensive area of enhanced cloud so I would say, let's bide our time and see what the models have to say by around this time tomorrow when the developing storm will have entered the stronger portion of the jet.

Oneiric 3 · 15-01-2018 11:46pm

Hirlam 18z gust speeds for Wed night:

Meteorite58 · 15-01-2018 11:56pm

18Z GFS continues to show a fast moving system and not as strong as previous runs .

Similarly ICON showing less strength at this stage than previous runs .

nacho libre · 16-01-2018 12:44am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

18Z GFS continues to show a fast moving system and not as strong as previous runs .

Yes, not as strong for us, but look how it seemingly intensifies as it's leaves the east coast of England.

Meteorite58 · 16-01-2018 1:00am

Yea not as strong on latest runs including the ARPEGE but still packing a punch, at the moment anyway. Latest run showing gusts 100 - 110km/h overland, maybe touching 120km//h in places but the trend has been correcting to less severe winds over us before strengthening over the UK and into Holland.

piplip87 · 16-01-2018 1:01am

Total newbie here, what are the chance this brings snow with it

squarecircles · 16-01-2018 1:08am

piplip87 wrote: »

Total newbie here, what are the chance this brings snow with it

Snow potential in Ulster as it remains in colder air, rain for the rest of the country, the storm is trending towards an non event currently but could change,if the storm tracks further south,places further south of Ulster could experience snow.

Meteorite58 · 16-01-2018 1:10am

piplip87 wrote: »

Total newbie here, what are the chance this brings snow with it

No chance south of the center I would think as the lower and upper temps rise as the system passes. Better chance of snow in Northern counties for a time where the moisture runs into cold air.

piplip87 · 16-01-2018 1:13am

Thank you,

A shift of 50 miles south should see me in the white stuff then

M.T. Cranium · 16-01-2018 1:53am

18z RGEM shows the low 983 mbs at 54N 15W at 18z Wed, this is as far as the model goes and on its grid boundary. But it does deepen from 1002 mbs at 06z (30W), which is a fairly sharp pressure drop, so I think we need to be careful to distinguish central pressure from the more significant pressure tendency.

At the rate this is dropping south each model run, we may get some more surprises before event time.

pauldry · 16-01-2018 2:18am

Didnt that Elanor deepen fast before wrecking havoc

gozunda · 16-01-2018 5:32am

Winds starting to increase here now - just woken by strong and very noisy gusts ....

130 m asl
North Cork / Limerick Tipperary border

M.T. Cranium · 16-01-2018 7:22am

Yes there's going to be some very strong gusts today unassociated with the storm we're tracking for late Wednesday, it's not even past the eastern end of Nova Scotia yet.

But as far as the 00z guidance is concerned, almost every model looks virtually the same, 980 mb low around Donegal Bay deepening across Ireland and Britain to the 970s, some depictions make it appear as though Dublin could get a brief blast of strong winds from the west with the cold front of this fast-moving system.

Right now I would describe it as a mid-range level 2 sort of event but the fast jet stream and forward motion on this are keeping us very vigilant for any last minute ramping up, have the feeling that like Pauldry was saying, some place could feel the sting of this one. I am not as confident as the models right now about this track, it could change, in part because this system has no real organization to it yet, but it looks like a lot of energy is available to it, once it decides where to organize it.

Really, not trying to dodge the question but this is more of a nowcast than many events, I wouldn't want anyone to write it off based on any model they see before Wednesday morning really.

_Whimsical_ · 16-01-2018 8:08am

There are some heavy gusts in galway city right now.

Meteorite58 · 16-01-2018 10:54am

Looks to be holding it's track and intesity more or less for now , the last few runs quite similar. Looks quite windy and stormy on coastal counties perhaps.

galwaybabe · 16-01-2018 10:58am

Should folk in Galway and Kinvara be worried about similar levels of flooding as the last storm? We got absolutely inundated with water!

km79 · 16-01-2018 11:18am

galwaybabe wrote: »

Should folk in Galway and Kinvara be worried about similar levels of flooding as the last storm? We got absolutely inundated with water!

http://m.met.ie/weather-warnings.aspx?t=National

Yellow warning for high sea waters and coastal flooding

Soccarboy11 · 16-01-2018 12:01pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes but it's for tonight, not Wednesday night, I just noticed.

It's in the same time.period as the other yellow wind alert it seems, so are they expecting this to be the storm via their own models possibly? I doubt it's something else

Treepole · 16-01-2018 12:06pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
This evening and for a time tonight, storm Fionn will bring very strong westerly winds to Atlantic coastal counties with mean wind speeds of 65 to 80 km/h and gusts of up to 120 km/hr, strongest near coasts with a risk of flooding.

Issued:Tuesday 16 January 2018 10:00
Valid:Tuesday 16 January 2018 15:00 to Wednesday 17 January 2018 03:00

This is a different event to the one that has been tracked on this thread is it not?
That warning expires at 3am tonight.

sryanbruen · 16-01-2018 12:07pm

Treepole wrote: »

This is a different event to the one that has been tracked on this thread is it not?
That warning expires at 3am tonight.

Read the above comments and the mods just edited the thread to Storm Fionn.

Villain · 16-01-2018 12:08pm

Is the time line in that Orange warning wrong?

sryanbruen · 16-01-2018 12:11pm

Villain wrote: »

Is the time line in that Orange warning wrong?

That's what Met Éireann put it down as, I was confused myself once I read the valid timeline:

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

munsterlegend · 16-01-2018 12:11pm

Villain wrote: »

Is the time line in that Orange warning wrong?

I don't think so looking at ventusky and predicted wind gusts. Looks like a coastal wind event for the most part.

typhoony · 16-01-2018 12:11pm

lol, so this thread has been up for 5 days signalling an event a day later and then out of the blue we get a warning for this evening that no-one seems to have noticed.

Villain · 16-01-2018 12:11pm

So we are looking at Georgina then for tomorrow night, seems odd warning to me.

DOCARCH · 16-01-2018 12:14pm

I did the thread edit....

I was expecting a storm tomorrow evening/night?

I'm confused....

Are we now expecting a storm this evening/tonight and another one tomorrow evening/night???

Villain · 16-01-2018 12:15pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I did the thread edit....

I was expecting a storm tomorrow evening/night?

I'm confused....

Are we now expecting a storm this evening/tonight and another one tomorrow evening/night???

Met Eireann are seeing it that way.

DOCARCH · 16-01-2018 12:16pm

Villain wrote: »

Met Eireann are seeing it that way.

Would appear so?

I will re-edit thread title so.

Soccarboy11 · 16-01-2018 12:16pm

Looking at the Windy app, it still shows a storm hitting tomorrow going across galway / mayo and out the Dublin side which is what we were tracking.

There looks to be wind and gusts today off the Atlantic but I didn't expect it to be named as a storm. So it's possible we could have georgina tomorrow

Treepole · 16-01-2018 12:16pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I did the thread edit....

I was expecting a storm tomorrow evening/night?

I'm confused....

Are we now expecting a storm this evening/tonight and another one tomorrow evening/night???

The event that was being discussed and tracked here doesn't ramp up until tomorrow evening.

The warning issued just now relates to some strong gusts this evening.

munsterlegend · 16-01-2018 12:16pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I did the thread edit....

I was expecting a storm tomorrow evening/night?

I'm confused....

Are we now expecting a storm this evening/tonight and another one tomorrow evening/night???

Yes there are two wind events. One tonight and one tomorrow(which is still up for debate as to who will be worst affected). Tonight though seems orange for coastal areas only.

Elmer Blooker · 16-01-2018 12:23pm

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

Storm fionn, so we have a name then!

Its looking like northern Europe will bear the brunt of this storm.
I think our Euro friends might have difficulties trying to pronounce "Fionn"

62943009

sryanbruen · 16-01-2018 12:24pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Its looking like northern Europe will bear the brunt of this storm.
I think our Euro friends might have difficulties trying to pronounce "Fionn"

That's not Fionn though, according to Met Éireann.

DOCARCH · 16-01-2018 12:27pm

OK....this is going to be confusing!

Starting a new thread for Storm Fionn (which is not really a storm in the true sense!).

Will leave this for Wednesday nights 'event'....and expected Storm Georgina.

pauldry · 16-01-2018 12:27pm

No the Europeans have their own names for it

Prob Fritzel or something

sryanbruen · 16-01-2018 12:28pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

OK....this is going to be confusing!

Starting a new thread for Storm Fionn (which is not really a storm in the true sense!).

Will leave this for Wednesday nights 'event'....and expected Storm Georgina.

Imagine Met Éireann editing the warning to Wednesday night and you made a new thread.

pjohnson · 16-01-2018 12:29pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

OK....this is going to be confusing!

Starting a new thread for Storm Fionn (which is not really a storm in the true sense!).

Will leave this for Wednesday nights 'event'....and expected Storm Georgina.

So we go from Storm A immediately to Storm B. Lovely.

piplip87 · 16-01-2018 12:31pm

pjohnson wrote: »

So we go from Storm A immediately to Storm B. Lovely.

Not quite we are going from Storm F to Storm G

pjohnson · 16-01-2018 12:40pm

piplip87 wrote: »

Not quite we are going from Storm F to Storm G

Why do they bother making two storms if there will be no let up? Why not extend Fionn till Thursday?

munsterlegend · 16-01-2018 12:41pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Why do they bother making two storms if there will be no let up? Why not extend Fionn till Thursday?

You try telling that to Georgina!

piplip87 · 16-01-2018 1:35pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Why do they bother making two storms if there will be no let up? Why not extend Fionn till Thursday?

More than likely because there is two different fronts approaching. Georgina could still change course, strengthen or weaken.

M.T. Cranium · 16-01-2018 3:38pm

Tightening of the isobars Fionn will be just a bit more of what's happening now, only tonight with higher gust potential (slightly, they have been hitting 110 km/hr in exposed coastal locations all day).

Not quite sure what to do cyclone Georgina is milling about south of Newfoundland and making quite a presentation on satellite imagery even if the isobars are a bit underwhelming so far.

However, this Fionn business probably tips us off that Georgina will be slamming into an existing strong wind field so she doesn't have to do much work to get wind speeds even higher.

Cantona's Collars · 16-01-2018 3:59pm

piplip87 wrote: »

Not quite we are going from Storm F to Storm G

Could have just called the two of them Fine Gael.

Strong Winds for Munster, Connacht and Leinster : PM 17th/AM 18th, Jan 2018

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