Strong Winds for Munster, Connacht and Leinster : PM 17th/AM 18th, Jan 2018

munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

In terms of disruption, won't most of the strong winds occur at night if the timing is correct? Not sure why school closings would be needed if the guidance looks the same on Tuesday night as it does now. The strongest winds in Donegal would be around midnight 17th-18th.

Well usually with schools here is that if a red warning is issued in an area(county unless Galway which is north and south!) then it's nearly automatic school closures. They also don't want kids arriving to a damaged school in the morning if a storm was at night or taking chances getting there what with trees down etc.

piplip87

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

In terms of disruption, won't most of the strong winds occur at night if the timing is correct? Not sure why school closings would be needed if the guidance looks the same on Tuesday night as it does now. The strongest winds in Donegal would be around midnight 17th-18th.

Fallen Trees on approach roads, especially in rural areas, main roads will always be cleared first. no Electricity, damage to schools could see them closed.

George Sunsnow

https://www.facebook.com/SAR115/posts/1952846714965522

Akrasia

piplip87 wrote: »

Fallen Trees on approach roads, especially in rural areas, main roads will always be cleared first. no Electricity, damage to schools could see them closed.

School buses are automatically cancelled if there's a red weather alert in place

Soccarboy11

If I am reading those graphs right (still learning!) we could be looking at a orange alert for the south/south east/East (Cork, Kerry, Waterford, Dublin?) and red for the north/north west? (Donegal, Mayo, Sligo?)

M.T. Cranium

A bit marginal for red although it could evolve into that.

Verbatim GFS would be mostly orange with red confined to very isolated portions of Donegal where impacts would be slight as anything there is built for strong winds.

Most of the south would be barely into yellow alert status on these maps. NAVGEM would be more of a country-wide orange.

This thread should probably go to level one anyway, there's at least 70% chance of an alert level situation somewhere in Ireland.

Meteorite58

Updated Thread to : Level 1 Alert - Be Aware .

More updates likely to follow.

M.T. Cranium

The only beef I have with the ECM model is that they don't run it four times a day or provide enough intermediate maps to the public. This is perhaps one of the main reasons why so many rely more on the GFS and certain other guidance, for better or for worse it keeps coming out and has all the bells and whistles.

Anyway, I think model performance differences are overstressed, they all fall into a fairly narrow range in recent evaluations. The "worst" ones are better than the best ones used to be five years ago.

Gaoth Laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The only beef I have with the ECM model is that they don't run it four times a day or provide enough intermediate maps to the public. This is perhaps one of the main reasons why so many rely more on the GFS and certain other guidance, for better or for worse it keeps coming out and has all the bells and whistles.

Anyway, I think model performance differences are overstressed, they all fall into a fairly narrow range in recent evaluations. The "worst" ones are better than the best ones used to be five years ago.

A full wealth of 3-hourly parameters is available for the ECM at weather.us Best site out there

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Kermit.de.frog

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The only beef I have with the ECM model is that they don't run it four times a day or provide enough intermediate maps to the public. This is perhaps one of the main reasons why so many rely more on the GFS and certain other guidance, for better or for worse it keeps coming out and has all the bells and whistles.

Anyway, I think model performance differences are overstressed, they all fall into a fairly narrow range in recent evaluations. The "worst" ones are better than the best ones used to be five years ago.

Neither GEM nor JMA develop this to anywhere near some of the other models.

Agree and think caution should still be applied.

Some models have this well south to the extent that far from being wind as a threat it could be snow.

I favor the GFS/ECM resolution but can't call it yet.

M.T. Cranium

ECM shifts south towards GFS track on the 00z run ... now have to wonder if this one will upgrade closer to the time, weak now but approaching a strong area of jet stream energy in western Atlantic.

Kermit.de.frog

NAVGEM still wants to take this quite a bit further south. Such a track is a substantial snow threat.

sdanseo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

NAVGEM still wants to take this quite a bit further south. Such a track is a substantial snow threat.

A substantial threat of snow, or a threat of substantial snow?

Meteorite58

ECM bringing the Depression closer to Ireland, windsthis morning less then previous runs but still quite windy .



850 hPa winds

Meteorite58

GFS has been consistent on track and intensity for a couple of days now as has the ARPEGE.

waterways

Does this mean that this surrounding ridge of low pressure is thought to absorb at high speed and will have probably max gusts of 100-110km/h and some stronger as usual along the coast somewhere, depending on the track?

amandstu

.. oops

typhoony

Meteorite58 wrote: »

GFS has been consistent on track and intensity for a couple of days now as has the ARPEGE.

So what is your intpretation\opinion on max gusts we're likely to see based on the various charts?

sryanbruen

This storm brings me back to 11 years ago on the same dates, Wednesday 17th & Thursday 18th January 2007 when Storm Kyrill struck Ireland.

From Met Éireann:

A powerful storm system moved across much of northern Europe on the 18th and 19th, with heavy rain and winds gusting between 150 and 170 km/hr. Dublin Airport measured a gust of 80 knots (148 km/hr) during the morning of the 18th, the highest gust measured there since the station opened in 1941; mean windspeeds at the same time were 53 knots (61 km/hr), or Beaufort force 11. Dublin port was forced to close during the morning. The U.K. Met Office reported the strongest winds since January 1990 across the country; while England experienced high winds, Scotland saw its first major snowfalls of 2007, bringing road and rail disruption. In the English Channel, 26 mariners were rescued from the damaged British container ship Napoli- it later ran aground on the Devon coast. In total there were at least 47 deaths across Europe due to the storm, with reports of power outages, uprooted trees and damaged buildings across the continent. Winds gusting to 168 km/hr were recorded late on the 18th in Germany, leading to the suspension of all rail services and leaving thousands of passengers stranded. Air traffic was also badly affected, with many flights cancelled. On the 19th the storm moved into Poland, the Czech Republic and Russia. Millions of households and businesses between Ireland and Russia suffered blackouts, with Germany and the Czech Republic worst affected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Kyrill

Villain

GFS 12z has shifted it South by about 100 miles with gusts reduced.

Meteorite58

Yes the Storm has been brought further S bringing more areas into the stronger winds I would have thought. The GFS showing the track further S then the others at present and showing it exiting the E far quicker which makes me think it might be a bit of an outlier. For the last few runs and the most recent 12Z I would think it is presently looking in the Level 2 Orange range and perhaps level 3 Red in places. That is gusting 110 to maybe close to or over 130 km/h, maybe more on the coasts . I say presently as the track has shifted more S and is still around 50 hrs out.

IMO Having watched this over the last few days and bearing in mind the very fast jet stream over us I think this is going to be the strongest storm this winter for many parts.

Oneiric 3

Hirlam 12z for Wed 18z (gust speeds)

squarecircles

"May you live in interesting times."

To me it looks like a serious wind event,the ones that blow up further on exiting Ireland and the British isles, developing further as it enters the North sea and impacting the Benelux countries,these tend to be the most severest wind events,approaching Ireland in their infancy and then developing rapidy as they approach mainland Europe.

In these circumstances we usually experience a glancing blow but damaging none the less as with storm Eleanor.

Locally Red alert levels in western coastal extremities, but given the isolated and unpopulated nature of such areas,more an orange warning generally.

(Personally,living on an exposed west facing coast in Mayo,I'm red alert as of now!,meteorite58's analysis is very good)

Say my name

Villain wrote: »

GFS 12z has shifted it South by about 100 miles with gusts reduced.

That means a bit more of the country affected by snow instead of rain.
I'm going on what the weather presenter on countryfile said yesterday.
Snow on the northern flank of the low.
Rain on the southern flank.

BLIZZARD7

ECM 12z also has this low further south, much more of a shift south and some parts may end up on the cold side of the low...

giveitholly

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

ECM 12z also has this low further south, much more of a shift south and some parts may end up on the cold side of the low...

What parts at the moment

Meteorite58

Yes a big shift from the ECM 12Z and looking less severe then it's previous run. Maybe the GFS was not an outlier after all. The Low is less developed in this run and it does not seem to develop as deep after it clears Ireland as in previous runs.

Might have to revise my previous prediction

M.T. Cranium

18z CMC analysis has it only 1018 mbs so far, around 37N 68W, and this weakening trend appears to be a result of slower deepening first 24h as it will be fighting to get past a large area of arctic high pressure over eastern Canada.

After that it would enter a much stronger area of jet stream winds, and while it has had this weak start, the satellite presentation shows a fairly extensive area of enhanced cloud so I would say, let's bide our time and see what the models have to say by around this time tomorrow when the developing storm will have entered the stronger portion of the jet.

Oneiric 3

Hirlam 18z gust speeds for Wed night:

Meteorite58

18Z GFS continues to show a fast moving system and not as strong as previous runs .



Similarly ICON showing less strength at this stage than previous runs .