Windy (Gusts to 60MPH) + Heavy Rain & Flooding Thursday/Friday (June 7/8th)

ninebeanrows · 05-06-2012 4:46pm #1

As some forecasts indicate within 24hrs the chance of >100mm of rain over a wide area I must issue a extreme weather warning. Pay attention to local forecasts. There could be prolonged torrential rain today for a large swathe of the country.

Looking increasingly grim this week with Thursday being the focus point for some vile weather.

A depression develops to the south of Ireland late Wednesday with winds increasing strong to gale force along Southern and Eastern coasts.

The system develops to around 980mb over Kerry and models indicate some really significant falls of rain possible.

One to watch over the coming days as some models show very large amounts of rain falling >50mm and possibly to 100mm during a 36 hour period for some exposed locations.

12z GFS rolling out.

Some serious amounts progged near the west coast, but positioning of intense precip will change in coming days.

Look at this cookie, could be quite windy too..

Redsunset · 05-06-2012 5:27pm

Cheers Weathercheck, yes horrible conditions spreading up from the south as the low intensifies to about 983mb with plenty of rain wrapped around the system and lasting into Friday to give many a good soaking, especially western regions with some imbedded thunderstorms.

Met Eireann Outlook
Thursday will be a wet day with spells of heavy persistent rain throughout the day. And it will also be fairly windy with strong southeasterly winds. There wont be any real clearance on Thursday night either, although the intensity of the rain will be reduced. However it will be followed by a very showery day on Friday, and the rainfall amounts through both Thursday and Friday will be typically 20 to 30mm

Pangea · 05-06-2012 6:07pm

The South West is getting it rough this year, will the new Northwest rainshield come into effect this time round?

redsteveireland · 05-06-2012 6:53pm

Pangea wrote: »

The South West is getting it rough this year, will the new Northwest rainshield come into effect this time round?

Unfortunately I heard it is going to be down for maintenance.

I do like the prospect of thunderstorms from this for the West, would I be right in saying that showers will be travelling East to West from this depression?

snaps · 05-06-2012 7:10pm

Looks like south of a line from Galway to Dublin will get the worst. Further north the better.

Green Diesel · 05-06-2012 7:23pm

Excellent, I'm down in coastal Mayo for the week. Hope it turns wild !

diceyd · 05-06-2012 8:14pm

how does it look for the east?

redsteveireland · 05-06-2012 8:15pm

snaps wrote: »

Looks like south of a line from Galway to Dublin will get the best. Further north will be boring.

Fixed your post. Its all about perspective.:D

JanuarySnowstor · 05-06-2012 8:30pm

On paper Thursday looks very wet
Sometimes though these deep low's tend to move their ppn through quite quickly
It wouldn't surprise me if we got some sunshine thurs afternoon for example.

Certainly one to watch though over the next 24hours

dfbemt · 05-06-2012 9:34pm

The worst thing has just happened to me !! The weather for the rest of the week looks miserable and not even Jean could make it sound better.

Oh no ! Am I starting to lose my love for the only woman in my life? Jean said wet and I pictured wet. Jean said wild and I pictured wild. Wet n wild Jean, wet and wild.

Now if Jean can't make the pain go away nobody can. Hurt me Jean, hurt me why don't you.

Oh well. Wet n wild it is then...........

gbee · 05-06-2012 9:45pm

dfbemt wrote: »

Oh well. Wet n wild it is then...........

Was watching from Sunday, just discovered my waterproof camera is flat, FLAT? It's not that long since we got good rain it is? Debating whether to charge or not, just how wet did Jean say, did she smile?

cyclops999 · 05-06-2012 10:08pm

How will the Athlone area fair out on Thursday as I have a wedding to go to?

pauldry · 05-06-2012 10:37pm

heres some guesses of rainfall for stations on Thursday/Friday

Valentia 55mm
Shannon 50mm
Claremorris 45mm
Belmullet 35mm
Cork 30mm
Mullingar 25mm
Finner 20mm
Sligo 32mm:)

Anyone else want to throw in their 2pence worth or are ye all with the troika now?

Birdnuts · 05-06-2012 10:52pm

This looks even worse on tonights Met O fax charts and lasts well into friday!!:eek::(

df1985 · 05-06-2012 11:30pm

will this affect flights out of dublin friday. (poland invasion!)

Redsunset · 05-06-2012 11:45pm

@df1985

:D

should be just a wet and windy day with occasional sunny spells but worth keeping on eye on

Redsunset · 06-06-2012 10:01am

Pressure forecast to drop another 5mb compared to yesterday.Now showing 978mb.

km79 · 06-06-2012 10:03am

Is there any hope of this tracking further south and missing us

Redsunset · 06-06-2012 10:10am

km79 wrote: »

Is there any hope of this tracking further south and missing us

Very unlikely to miss us at this range and with central pressure dropping further it normally means a low swings more to the north.

Redsunset · 06-06-2012 10:36am

:eek:NAE showing max rainfall total to 6am Friday morning of 101mm. Now that's a slight risk of an extreme event if I ever seen one.Could be well wrong and will no doubt change many times before it gets here.

Green Diesel · 06-06-2012 10:40am

MET Éireann weather warning:

Issued at 06 June 2012 - 10:18
Warning of Heavy Rain
Thursday will be a wet day countrywide; 40 to 60mm of rain is forecast in Munster and Connacht, 30 to 50mm of rain is expected in Leinster and Ulster.

Valid from 00:00 Thursday 7th June 2012
Until 00:00 Friday 8th June 2012

There is a risk of a further 20 to 30mm on Friday.

MiNdGaM3 · 06-06-2012 11:04am

I think it's time to update this thread title to a moderate risk! By this stage, there ain't going to be any major changes so it's likely some large swath of the country is going to experience prolonged and heavy rainfall with a strong likelihood of flooding.

ninebeanrows · 06-06-2012 11:05am

Yes 6z GFS upgraded things a bit too.

Could be quite bad in places, will upgrade to Moderate Risk now.

Midwest looks to be badly hit.

Redsunset · 06-06-2012 11:15am

Yes Thursday morning looks fairly bad in the south before spreading to pretty much all areas . Looks to be very showery come afternoon.

MiNdGaM3 · 06-06-2012 11:18am

Good to see Met Eireann are on their game with the weather warning and mentions of flooding in their forecast, even if it is just "localised flooding".
It will be an interesting few days to say the least.

Redsunset · 06-06-2012 11:28am

Yes Met Eireann are on the ball and watching very closely like ourselves. Oh god I love the weather.:)

I think the previous deluge and now this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back as regard to flooding, we shall see and there's also more rain for Sunday

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 06-06-2012 12:05pm

Worst looks to be centred over my house ! :eek:

jjj6894x · 06-06-2012 12:54pm

what's the outlook for leinster?

Redsunset · 06-06-2012 3:43pm

I'll stick up the flood warning sign so as to give a more visual impact on the thread. After the recent heavy rain, the water table will have rose somewhat and the threat of flooding in places renown for it should be monitored just in case.

JanuarySnowstor · 06-06-2012 4:44pm

Looks like the rain will kick off before midnight down South and then continue for 24 hours more or less non stop.
Could be as much as 4 inches in some parts.
Also tides are quite high aswell.
All in all flooding looks very likely esp for the South and West

Winds while not severe will be enough to knock trees in full leaf. Windiest spell in the wrap around thurs night when speeds could touch 70mph in gusts

Redsunset · 06-06-2012 6:12pm

Just look where the triple point is at midday tomorrow .Heavy rain for sure if it played out to this chart . Screen shot from my phone.

apologies if very big as on my phone.

km79 · 06-06-2012 6:18pm

The met eireAnn 5 day forecast seems to have moved the heavier rain out to the Atlantic just off the west coast ?

MiNdGaM3 · 06-06-2012 6:53pm

The 12z NAE showing relatively widespread >100mm accumulations over the next 48 hours. Some serious flooding will occur if it is correct.

Redsunset · 06-06-2012 8:16pm

Latest ECM for midday tomorrow.

JanuarySnowstor · 06-06-2012 8:41pm

Already showing on the radar to the South of Ireland.
It will be raining in Cork before midnight.
Would be nice to get a few embedded thunderstorms!

Iancar29 · 06-06-2012 8:46pm

I hope the south county councils are taking precautionary actions now!

eskimocat · 06-06-2012 9:07pm

Heading out to check that insy winsy hasn't spun a web in my rain gauge, want to be ready for this one!

Paparazzo · 06-06-2012 9:09pm

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Good to see Met Eireann are on their game with the weather warning and mentions of flooding in their forecast, even if it is just "localised flooding".
It will be an interesting few days to say the least.

People will still complain because met eireann didn't send a personal letter to everyone in the country warning them.

leahyl · 06-06-2012 9:13pm

[Quote=Paparazzo;

People will still complain because met eireann didn't send a personal letter to everyone in the country warning them.[/Quote]

Lol :-D

JanuarySnowstor · 06-06-2012 9:16pm

I see the RSA tonight are warning the roads could be skiddy after the recent dry weather.

You can only laugh!

Rougies · 06-06-2012 9:20pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I see the RSA tonight are warning the roads could be skiddy after the recent dry weather.

You can only laugh!

The reason for that is that during dry weather a film of oils/fuel/rubber etc builds up on the roads without being washed away and then when it does rain the roads are slippier than normal as the oils rise up.
So they're right

JanuarySnowstor · 06-06-2012 9:23pm

Rougies wrote: »

The reason for that is that during dry weather a film of oils/fuel/rubber etc builds up on the roads without being washed away and then when it does rain the roads are slippier than normal as the oils rise up.
So they're right

It's been raining here almost non stop for the last ten days.
Has it been recently dry where you are ?

Iancar29 · 06-06-2012 9:24pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3mKAKPYh6k

lostinashford · 06-06-2012 9:24pm

eskimocat wrote: »

Heading out to check that insy winsy hasn't spun a web in my rain gauge, want to be ready for this one!

Don't worry Insy Winsy is in my guage and has been evading capture, torture & eventual death for over a week now - please weather gods drown him:D

Rougies · 06-06-2012 9:30pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's been raining here almost non stop for the last ten days.
Has it been recently dry where you are ?

Oh right. I see what you mean now

Well it;s been dry today here. Maybe that's what they mean lol.

leahyl · 06-06-2012 9:31pm

Time for weather on rte

Sierra Oscar · 06-06-2012 9:34pm

leahyl wrote: »

Time for weather on rte

Outlook doesn't look too good, that's for sure!

leahyl · 06-06-2012 9:36pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

Time for weather on rte

Outlook doesn't look too good, that's for sure!

Relentless!

Deep Easterly · 06-06-2012 9:49pm

Every cloud has a silver lining though as tomorrow should present us with some great nimbostratus displays.

Whether or which, bring it on..

km79 · 06-06-2012 9:55pm

leahyl wrote: »

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

Time for weather on rte

Outlook doesn't look too good, that's for sure!

Relentless!

Her side profile was distracting ....thank God she did not start talking about hills or mountains

Relentless

Sea Filly · 06-06-2012 10:29pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I see the RSA tonight are warning the roads could be skiddy after the recent dry weather.

You can only laugh!

Aquaplanes, haven't you heard of them?

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's been raining here almost non stop for the last ten days.
Has it been recently dry where you are ?

Um yes, much of the country had that hot, dry spell. Perfect conditions for build-up of oil and whatnot on the roads.

Windy (Gusts to 60MPH) + Heavy Rain & Flooding Thursday/Friday (June 7/8th)

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