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Commodities (including Gold BUGS)

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    #92
    makeorbrake
    Registered Users Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    pearcider wrote: »
    It’s lost 65 % of its value from it’s peak.
    Why measure from it's peak? Try a different metric. Measure from the lowest btc price each year - and you'll see it's consistently moved upwards year on year. Best investment of the last decade.
    pearcider wrote: »
    In any case, I don’t see the central banks of the world keeping large reserves of bitcoin nor does bitcoin have a 5000 year history of wealth preservation. I’ll pass.
    For sure it doesn't have a 4,000 year track record. There's greater risk with bitcoin as it's formative but with that risk comes far greater upside potential than gold (or any other asset).

    As regards a CB buying it, that doesn't have to happen for it to be a success. I believe it will happen - but in a longer timeframe. First slowly and then all at once.


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    #93
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    makeorbrake wrote: »
    Why measure from it's peak? Try a different metric. Measure from the lowest btc price each year - and you'll see it's consistently moved upwards year on year. Best investment of the last decade.


    For sure it doesn't have a 4,000 year track record. There's greater risk with bitcoin as it's formative but with that risk comes far greater upside potential than gold (or any other asset).

    As regards a CB buying it, that doesn't have to happen for it to be a success. I believe it will happen - but in a longer timeframe. First slowly and then all at once.

    If I want risk I will gamble on sports or invest in equities. Gold is insurance. Maybe you’re right that btc will be the best investment ever but I’m too long in the tooth for it to interest me. Working the remote control is a challenge for me.


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    #94
    makeorbrake
    Registered Users Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    pearcider wrote: »
    Working the remote control is a challenge for me.

    That's quite alright. :-)
    Some portfolios are ready for digital assets and some are not.


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    #95
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,036 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    pearcider wrote: »
    If I want risk I will gamble on sports or invest in equities. Gold is insurance.

    You are betting on something who's value is based on fear and greed... This pandemic may very well change the nutters perception of their gold as they discover that they can't find anyone willing to swap their loo rolls or packet of Paracetamol for a bit of gold....


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    #96
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    You are betting on something who's value is based on fear and greed... This pandemic may very well change the nutters perception of their gold as they discover that they can't find anyone willing to swap their loo rolls or packet of Paracetamol for a bit of gold....

    I’m not betting on anything except central banks solvency and government incompetence. The fact that you mock gold bugs reflects your own insecurities more than anything else. Gold is money. Everything else is credit.


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    #97
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,036 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    pearcider wrote: »
    I’m not betting on anything except central banks solvency and government incompetence. The fact that you mock gold bugs reflects your own insecurities more than anything else. Gold is money. Everything else is credit.

    Try swapping some gold for a packet of Paracetamol and let us know how you get on. Should not be any problem if it is money as you claim...


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    #98
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Try swapping some gold for a packet of Paracetamol and let us know how you get on. Should not be any problem if it is money as you claim...

    That’s not my claim..that’s JP Morgan’s famous quote.


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    #99
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,036 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    pearcider wrote: »
    That’s not my claim..that’s JP Morgan’s famous quote.

    So what? made in the days of the gold standard which failed along time ago....

    Mean while how are getting on try to swap gold for Paracetamol, that is the test at the end of the day.


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    #100
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    So what? made in the days of the gold standard which failed along time ago....

    Mean while how are getting on try to swap gold for Paracetamol, that is the test at the end of the day.

    I’ll take JPs wisdom over yours anyway. Gold has passed all its tests as a preserver of wealth since the dawn of civilization whereas every single fiat currency has eventually failed. You’re ignorant if you think the gold standard ever failed. Nixon broke the link with the dollar and the gold standard because of US profligacy. It wasn’t because it broke. It was working perfectly by limiting how much paper could be printed and by draining US gold reserves as they made terrible policy decisions in the 60s. But now the end is near and he who holds the gold will make the rules.


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    #101
    makeorbrake
    Registered Users Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    pearcider wrote: »
    Nixon broke the link with the dollar and the gold standard because of US profligacy. It wasn’t because it broke. It was working perfectly by limiting how much paper could be printed and by draining US gold reserves as they made terrible policy decisions in the 60s. But now the end is near and he who holds the gold will make the rules.

    Dead right on the gold standard. It seems people at the time didn't fully understand the stroke that was pulled back then...nor do they now for the most part but they are going to.


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    #102
    Mach 3
    Registered Users Posts: 233 ✭✭Mach 3


    That was some performance by Palladium last week - the best Commodity by far last week. Platinum wasn't shy either.


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    #103
    nuac
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,769 Mod ✭✭✭✭nuac


    Any views on gold at present?


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    #104
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    nuac wrote: »
    Any views on gold at present?

    Going a lot higher. I’m seeing the late 70s on steroids. A currency crisis basically. Fed monetizing debt at the rate of 1 million dollars per second. All other central banks following suit. Gold could end up smashing the 10000 mark in a few years. Equities and real estate will decline by 90% against gold. I put the probability of this scenario about 50:50.


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    #105
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    greenfield21 wrote: »
    I don't know if it's a dead cat bounce but maybe miners are starting to get some love again. Topped barrick and Kinross earlier. Crazy moves of the earlier lows.

    Both up more than 50% from when this was posted. Well done. It takes guts to buy when others are fearful.


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    #106
    Mach 3
    Registered Users Posts: 233 ✭✭Mach 3


    nuac wrote: »
    Any views on gold at present?

    Looks like the high for the week is in. Fundamentals are not there to support increase. IMHO


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    #107
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Mach 3 wrote: »


    Looks like the high for the week is in. Fundamentals are not there to support increase. IMHO

    What price you looking at? Quite the gap between spot and futures.


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    #108
    Mach 3
    Registered Users Posts: 233 ✭✭Mach 3


    pearcider wrote: »
    What price you looking at? Quite the gap between spot and futures.

    Right you are.

    Gold Futures - Jun 20 (GCM0)


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    #109
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Mach 3 wrote: »
    Right you are.

    Gold Futures - Jun 20 (GCM0)

    I think the fundamentals are sound. The only way gold can be stopped is if the central banks raise rates.


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    #110
    JMMCapital
    Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Try swapping some gold for a packet of Paracetamol and let us know how you get on. Should not be any problem if it is money as you claim...

    You actually can pay for goods with Gold, checkout the ‘Gold card’ by Goldmoney...

    https://www.goldmoney.com/


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    #111
    retalivity
    Registered Users Posts: 14,062 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Looking at buying silver & platinum, wheres the best (and most reputable) places to buy? Looking to minimise spread, vat if held offshore, etc.


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    #112
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    retalivity wrote: »
    Looking at buying silver & platinum, wheres the best (and most reputable) places to buy? Looking to minimise spread, vat if held offshore, etc.

    European mint is based in Estonia so vat free silver. I have used them and they are reliable.


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    #113
    Mach 3
    Registered Users Posts: 233 ✭✭Mach 3


    Originally Posted by Voltex
    My own worry in is in the realm of corporate bonds. The level of non-financials corporate borrowings as a % of GDP is the highest since records began in the US...basically corporations gorging on almost zero rate loans. When some of the investments banks started citing tougher trading conditions in Q2, fund managers started pulling money from equities and into fixed income - hence the yield curve inversion, which is all the way from the 1 year/20 year.

    There's some very big US corps badly exposed like GE whose bonds are trading close to junk right now. Therefore as an alternative...I'd be buying gold, but not as a currency hedge.

    27/08/19

    mono627 wrote: »
    100%. That BBB market is frightening with the sheer amount of debt. Junk bond market won’t be able to take a downgrade of any of the bigger boys (GM, GE, AT&T).

    If and when a recession actually comes along it’s going to be a complete clusterfcuk.

    Corporates really lost the run of themselves altogether.

    As you said just another reason to own gold at the moment.
    27/08/19
    Mach 3 wrote: »
    The way I see it we have three old fashioned variables that are going to come to a head over the next year:

    1) People
    2) Central Banks
    3) Political

    Slice or dice it any way you want, it will come down to the reaction of each variable to the other. Every thing else is peripheral.
    Same auld, same auld, but maybe just maybe this time is different.

    27/08/2019


    All in there, as expected.

    2)American central bank has moved. Massive stimulus
    3) Trump has moved. Opening Up America Again. Fiscal stimulus expected.
    1) The only variable left is the "People" and you would expect relief and confidence from the other two moves.

    Other countries to follow suit?


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    #114
    MfMan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,381 ✭✭✭MfMan


    Price of oil continues to fall, 20-year lows now, in spite of recent agreements by OPEC+. WTI off a good bit overnight, with Brent also down a tad. Question, which of these, if any, influences *our* pump prices? Is WTI mainly for the US market?


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    #115
    iAcesHigh
    Registered Users Posts: 447 ✭✭iAcesHigh


    Reading through this thread I was wondering, how do you most often trade in commodities - futures, ETFs, shares of companies "producing them"?


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    #116
    BrokenArrows
    Registered Users Posts: 7,500 ✭✭✭BrokenArrows


    MfMan wrote: »
    Price of oil continues to fall, 20-year lows now, in spite of recent agreements by OPEC+. WTI off a good bit overnight, with Brent also down a tad. Question, which of these, if any, influences *our* pump prices? Is WTI mainly for the US market?

    it will influence the pump prices in a few weeks as it filters through.


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    #117
    BrokenArrows
    Registered Users Posts: 7,500 ✭✭✭BrokenArrows


    are there any crude oil tracker etf's which accurately track the price?
    Everything i can see on degiro is only down 10% while crude is down 40%


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    #118
    dartboardio
    Registered Users Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭dartboardio


    If anyone had of sold USOIL today they'd be after making some money!

    I caught it at the very end of the downtrend..

    Now I wonder when it will rise.


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    #119
    Driftmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭Driftmaster


    dartboardio wrote: »
    If anyone had of sold USOIL today they'd be after making some money!

    I caught it at the very end of the downtrend..

    Now I wonder when it will rise.

    Where are you trading it


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    #120
    el Fenomeno
    Registered Users Posts: 3,156 ✭✭✭el Fenomeno


    Re: silver - on Goldcore.ie there are 25oz tubes of coins you can buy. Why would a British coin be more expensive than an Austrian coin when you're buying the same weight (and I assume the same purity)?


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    #121
    iAcesHigh
    Registered Users Posts: 447 ✭✭iAcesHigh


    el Fenomeno wrote: »
    Re: silver - on Goldcore.ie there are 25oz tubes of coins you can buy. Why would a British coin be more expensive than an Austrian coin when you're buying the same weight (and I assume the same purity)?

    They also hold certain "numismatic" value. Hard for me to evaluate why "AT" would be more valuable then "UK" but might be they have produced less of those?


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