Commodities (including Gold BUGS)

Mach 3

Not a sign or sinner of a Gold Bug on this forum for years-all broke and depleted. Seen a few surface out of the woodwork now and again, same result - they are bust!
Even the oil-heads are quite, despite the outperformance this last couple of years.
The slide in Commodities, is due to what?

Mach 3

So a year later, we now have Gold outperforming Oil! Who'd have thought?

This time next year where will Commodities be?
Working on the answer.

Voltex

Mach 3 wrote: »

So a year later, we now have Gold outperforming Oil! Who'd have thought?

This time next year where will Commodities be?
Working on the answer.

Ive only ever looked at gold as a hedge against inflation...nothing else. Fixed income for safety.

Mach 3

[/quote]

"Ive only ever looked at gold as a hedge against inflation...nothing else. Fixed income for safety."[/quote]

I here what you are saying (and for the record I did cover FI last year), but I'm not looking for safety for my money; I'm looking to make money.

pearcider

Mach 3 wrote: »

"Ive only ever looked at gold as a hedge against inflation...nothing else. Fixed income for safety."[/quote]

I here what you are saying (and for the record I did cover FI last year), but I'm not looking for safety for my money; I'm looking to make money.[/quote]

Gold will shine in the next crisis just like it did in the last one. The only difference being the next crisis will bust the central banks as they are over levered. So yeah now is definitely the time to be in gold. Or the miners if you want to speculate.

Gold needs to be over 10k USD if the FED were forced to backstop the money supply with US treasury when the confidence is lost.

Mach 3

Ha, Never a borrower or lender be.
No thanks, ("gold miners") I don't speculate per se.

10k? What timeframe are we talking about here?

Supercell

Its going to $5000 don't you know? , I'm not even bothering to read it. I'm sure the chap makes a perfectly valid argument why its going to $5000 as did countless others in the last few years, pick your own get-rich-quick amount. The headline is enough, goldbugs are a bit like Bitcoin enthusiasts in my eye, its always going to infinity and beyond.
Maybe i'm just jaded.

pearcider

Supercell wrote: »

Its going to $5000 don't you know? , I'm not even bothering to read it. I'm sure the chap makes a perfectly valid argument why its going to $5000 as did countless others in the last few years, pick your own get-rich-quick amount. The headline is enough, goldbugs are a bit like Bitcoin enthusiasts in my eye, its always going to infinity and beyond.
Maybe i'm just jaded.

Gold is money. Why do you think the US has 8000 tonnes of it?

Jim2007

pearcider wrote: »

Gold is money. Why do you think the US has 8000 tonnes of it?

Gold is not money, it is commodity and like is subject to the exact same market forces as any other commodity. If anyone tries to dump a large block of gold onto the market, the price will go done just like another commodity and consequently your purchasing power.

Voltex

Jim2007 wrote: »

Gold is not money, it is commodity and like is subject to the exact same market forces as any other commodity. If anyone tries to dump a large block of gold onto the market, the price will go done just like another commodity and consequently your purchasing power.

The problem with gold is that it doesn't generate an income...its uses are limited. Its value derives from the fact its a precious metal, with finite supply. Its scarcity justifies its price, nothing else.

pearcider

If gold isn’t money then why does the US army guard 8000 tones of it in Fort Knox and West Point. Any student of history knows that gold back stops the money supply.

Supercell

I see Degiro offer "XTRACKERS PHYSICAL GOLD EUR HEDGED ETC" which is a gold tracker, anyone know how this is treated from a tax perspective - gains as income like ETF's or as regular shares - CGT ?
Have to admit I wouldn't mind putting something into gold as a hedge against volatility in currency with Brexit and financial apocalypse around the corner. Apparently.

Mach 3

Argentina going to wall, Emerging markets struggling with the strong USD, Latin America in particular is vulnerable. US bonds the choice of safety.
Where does this leave Commodities ?

pearcider

Mach 3 wrote: »

Argentina going to wall, Emerging markets struggling with the strong USD, Latin America in particular is vulnerable. US bonds the choice of safety.
Where does this leave Commodities ?

Long gold and silver. Short commodities and the Dow. Hold onto your hats.

Jim2007

pearcider wrote: »

Any student of history knows that gold back stops the money supply.

That does not even make sense.

Jim2007

Voltex wrote: »

The problem with gold is that it doesn't generate an income...its uses are limited. Its value derives from the fact its a precious metal, with finite supply. Its scarcity justifies its price, nothing else.

Well is not finite at least not at present... and it's value is derived from a couple of things:
- Demand as a production material
- Availability
- Fear
- Greed

Jim2007

pearcider wrote: »

If gold isn’t money then why does the US army guard 8000 tones of it in Fort Knox and West Point.

Holding gold as a national reserve and being able to use it as money are two very different things. You can walk into any bank on the Bahnhofstarsse in Zurich and buy gold over the counter no problem. But come back the following day and try to sell it back to them and it is very unlikely anyone will accept it from you.

pearcider

Jim2007 wrote: »

Holding gold as a national reserve and being able to use it as money are two very different things. You can walk into any bank on the Bahnhofstarsse in Zurich and buy gold over the counter no problem. But come back the following day and try to sell it back to them and it is very unlikely anyone will accept it from you.

This makes no sense. Gold is easy to sell, especially in this market. It’s up 25% this year. In fact gold has proven to be the most liquid asset in the natural world for many thousands of years.

But you’ve completely dodged the question about the absolutely huge gold reserves of the major economies. What is the reason they hold gold if it is not to ultimately back stop their currency in the event of a crisis of confidence. Look at the US budget deficit and consider we are at the end of the business cycle. Look at the zombie banks. The crisis is upon us.

Gold will thrive in this environment - negative real rates everywhere. The phony war between deflation and inflation is nearing its end. Gold will rise in real terms no matter who wins.

pearcider

Jim2007 wrote: »

Well is not finite at least not at present... and it's value is derived from a couple of things:
- Demand as a production material
- Availability
- Fear
- Greed

It’s not really used as a production material at all (which is why it is not a commodity) unless you count jewelry which is basically another form of money. Availability is capped. Fear and greed are ubiquitous.

Just to correct my previous post, it’s actually up 30% this year.

gtv2002g

At least 320 tons of gold are used annually in the electronics industry of which approx only 10% is recovered by recycling so every year almost 290 tons is used

Voltex

pearcider wrote: »

This makes no sense. Gold is easy to sell, especially in this market. It’s up 25% this year. In fact gold has proven to be the most liquid asset in the natural world for many thousands of years.

But you’ve completely dodged the question about the absolutely huge gold reserves of the major economies. What is the reason they hold gold if it is not to ultimately back stop their currency in the event of a crisis of confidence. Look at the US budget deficit and consider we are at the end of the business cycle. Look at the zombie banks. The crisis is upon us.

Gold will thrive in this environment - negative real rates everywhere. The phony war between deflation and inflation is nearing its end. Gold will rise in real terms no matter who wins.

Gold holding is a mode of shoring up a nations foreign exchange reserves. The concept of a a gold standard as a guarantee of the value of bank notes issued by a central bank has been mostly abandoned since the 50's and completely by the US since the 70's having been replaced by FIAT currencies.

Gold holds a real value..its desirable, precious and valued by society for '000's of years. But within wealth management, all it is is a hedge and virtually always quoted in $USD.

The US dollar is one of the worlds reserve currencies, so any loss in confidence in that would result in problems far bigger than any amount of gold they're holding would solve! If I was a betting man and had to put my money somewhere at this time..it'd be fixed income and mostly into US T-bills to ride out the storm and bonds.

pearcider

I understand that. But I believe the gold standard will return in some form and that the last 40 years have been an aberration. Let’s be honest the US abandoned the usd gold convertibility because they were losing their gold hand over fist (they lost 4000 tonnes since ww2) and their fiscal discipline had been ran into the ground by big spending LBJ. Interesting to note that Nixon claimed they were only temporarily suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold...just like zero interest rates were meant to be temporary!! Now they can’t get out. Raise rates and crash the economy. Cut rates and suffocate the banks. The Fed is trapped and they know it.

All that being said the US spending problem has now gotten a lot worse. Now we are in a situation where they are running huge deficits at the end of the longest expansion in history. The game is nearly over and all the quantitive easing in the world won’t save the petrodollar system and by extension the worlds banking system.

I’m not saying the world will end but there will be a new system and Brenton woods will be replaced. Gold will almost certainly play a part in this. Invest accordingly.

BrokenArrows

pearcider wrote: »

I understand that. But I believe the gold standard will return in some form and that the last 40 years have been an aberration. Let’s be honest the US abandoned the usd gold convertibility because they were losing their gold hand over fist (they lost 4000 tonnes since ww2) and their fiscal discipline had been ran into the ground by big spending LBJ. Interesting to note that Nixon claimed they were only temporarily suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold...just like zero interest rates were meant to be temporary!! Now they can’t get out. Raise rates and crash the economy. Cut rates and suffocate the banks. The Fed is trapped and they know it.

All that being said the US spending problem has now gotten a lot worse. Now we are in a situation where they are running huge deficits at the end of the longest expansion in history. The game is nearly over and all the quantitive easing in the world won’t save the petrodollar system and by extension the worlds banking system.

I’m not saying the world will end but there will be a new system and Brenton woods will be replaced. Gold will almost certainly play a part in this. Invest accordingly.

No it wont.
There is about 1.5 trillion USD in circulation but they only hold about 420 billion in gold. There is no way they will remove that much USD from circulation or increase their holding in gold by that volume.

same to be said for every other currency.

pearcider

BrokenArrows wrote: »

No it wont.
There is about 1.5 trillion USD in circulation but they only hold about 420 billion in gold. There is no way they will remove that much USD from circulation or increase their holding in gold by that volume.

same to be said for every other currency.

Or gold could be revalued at a higher value such that it backs the money supply...

Voltex

BrokenArrows wrote: »

No it wont.
There is about 1.5 trillion USD in circulation but they only hold about 420 billion in gold. There is no way they will remove that much USD from circulation or increase their holding in gold by that volume.

same to be said for every other currency.

....and all before which calculation of the money supply is agreed upon e.g. M1, M2, M3 or M4!

BrokenArrows

Gold rose 2% on Friday due to China introducing tarrifs on US products.
After the market closed trump announced further tariffs on Chinese products in response to China. This further escelates the trade war between the two countries.

This, combined with world wide market uncertainty and the fear of a global recession, I'd expect gold to rise another 1.5% on Monday based on this.

pearcider

Gold is up 31% in the past year - 300 euros per ounce. It is actually at all time highs in all currencies except the USD. This is significant. Gold is going up because the currencies are being depreciated. The currencies need to be depreciated due to bad governance and over spending and that’s bullish for gold.

The Fed will not rest until they get their inflation and that’s extremely bullish for gold. Gold will become a high yield asset in high inflation negative interest rate environment that we are facing into.

If you’ve been watching the markets you can see gold decoupled from the commodity index in 2014..in other words it is starting to act like money. They’ve been especially anti correlated in the past few months. Interesting silver is also up 20% this quarter which suggests that it too is beginning to act like money.

Of course the worlds major nations have always known that gold is money and acted like there is a gold standard. That’s why they have such vast reserves. It puts a hard floor on the value of the currency.

BrokenArrows

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Gold rose 2% on Friday due to China introducing tarrifs on US products.
After the market closed trump announced further tariffs on Chinese products in response to China. This further escelates the trade war between the two countries.

This, combined with world wide market uncertainty and the fear of a global recession, I'd expect gold to rise another 1.5% on Monday based on this.

When the markets opened it did rise as expected. However it's now withdrawn back to Fridays close levels.

mono627

pearcider wrote: »

Gold is up 31% in the past year - 300 euros per ounce. It is actually at all time highs in all currencies except the USD. This is significant. Gold is going up because the currencies are being depreciated. The currencies need to be depreciated due to bad governance and over spending and that’s bullish for gold.

The Fed will not rest until they get their inflation and that’s extremely bullish for gold. Gold will become a high yield asset in high inflation negative interest rate environment that we are facing into.

If you’ve been watching the markets you can see gold decoupled from the commodity index in 2014..in other words it is starting to act like money. They’ve been especially anti correlated in the past few months. Interesting silver is also up 20% this quarter which suggests that it too is beginning to act like money.

Of course the worlds major nations have always known that gold is money and acted like there is a gold standard. That’s why they have such vast reserves. It puts a hard floor on the value of the currency.

What do you mean we're facing a high inflation environment? By which metric are you looking at? I presume you meant deflationary?

And what does "act like money" mean? Gold and silver have gone up for a variety of reasons although I'm not sure they're for the reasons you've listed.

pearcider

mono627 wrote: »

What do you mean we're facing a high inflation environment? By which metric are you looking at? I presume you meant deflationary?

And what does "act like money" mean? Gold and silver have gone up for a variety of reasons although I'm not sure they're for the reasons you've listed.

Official CPI is dubious since they changed the rules in 1980 and 1990. You can find the old rules at shadow stats where the official CPI is more like 6-7 %. The government manipulate the inflation rate in a number of ways using for example hedonic quality adjustments (newer cars are better because they have sat navs even if you don’t use them) and quality substitution (the price of fillet steak has gone up but the consumer can switch to a cheaper cut). They also remove the price of food and energy during volatile periods and they give heavier weight to white goods such as refrigerators and televisions even though consumers don’t regularly purchase these.

Of course the government wants higher inflations as this improves tax returns nominally and also eases the burden of both the welfare state and the gigantic debt it incurs. Unfortunately such a policy is dangerous as once inflation takes off it is very difficult to reign in.

Regarding the devaluation of fiat and the need to devalue the USD in order to avoid economic collapse Mark Carney made a presentation on this at Jackson Hole. Gold and silver will protect your savings in this new order as they will be part of any new global currency basket. They can’t increase the supply of real money by more than a few percent - unlike fiat notes. We have been warned.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/the-growing-challenges-for-monetary-policy-speech-by-mark-carney.pdf?la=en&hash=01A18270247C456901D4043F59D4B79F09B6BFBC

pearcider

mono627 wrote: »

What do you mean we're facing a high inflation environment? By which metric are you looking at? I presume you meant deflationary?

And what does "act like money" mean? Gold and silver have gone up for a variety of reasons although I'm not sure they're for the reasons you've listed.

I am curious why you think gold and silver has gone up. What use is gold if not as money. Also why do the major powers hold so much gold reserves..?

mono627

pearcider wrote: »

Official CPI is dubious since they changed the rules in 1980 and 1990. You can find the old rules at shadow stats where the official CPI is more like 6-7 %. The government manipulate the inflation rate in a number of ways using for example hedonic quality adjustments (newer cars are better because they have sat navs even if you don’t use them) and quality substitution (the price of fillet steak has gone up but the consumer can switch to a cheaper cut). They also remove the price of food and energy during volatile periods and they give heavier weight to white goods such as refrigerators and televisions even though consumers don’t regularly purchase these.

Of course the government wants higher inflations as this improves tax returns nominally and also eases the burden of both the welfare state and the gigantic debt it incurs. Unfortunately such a policy is dangerous as once inflation takes off it is very difficult to reign in.

Regarding the devaluation of fiat and the need to devalue the USD in order to avoid economic collapse Mark Carney made a presentation on this at Jackson Hole. Gold and silver will protect your savings in this new order as they will be part of any new global currency basket. They can’t increase the supply of real money by more than a few percent - unlike fiat notes. We have been warned.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/the-growing-challenges-for-monetary-policy-speech-by-mark-carney.pdf?la=en&hash=01A18270247C456901D4043F59D4B79F09B6BFBC

Is your whole argument that the inflation figures are off? If that's your argument then I respectfully disagree with your whole thesis. I by no means think CPI or PCE are perfect, they have plenty of flaws in the way they're measured but discounting them completely is ridiculous.

Have you looked at commodities lately? GSCI commodity index? Do you factor commodity prices into the mix at all?

Has fillet steak gone up in price? When was the last time you checked the price of Live Cattle? That's not a bullish chart mate. We're on the opposite end of the inflation scale at the moment, it may change, but that's where we are.

I'm well aware of the theory that low interest rates can create inflation and that there's always the potential that it's brewing under the hood we're nowhere near that now by any standard measure.

We've missed all of the inflation targets for nearly a decade.

If you're so well read in your history then surely you're aware that when we need to we can jam on the breaks for interest rates very, very quickly if inflation does come about. The knock on effects are pretty bad for asset prices but it's been done before.

mono627

pearcider wrote: »

I am curious why you think gold and silver has gone up. What use is gold if not as money. Also why do the major powers hold so much gold reserves..?

I've been bullish both gold and silver for quite some time. I think the break through the $1400 level in gold was very significant. But I'm most certainly not long because it's an inflation hedge.

In fact I think for the first time in a while I think we can get a gold and dollar move to the upside.

There's so many reasons to be long gold at the moment.

I think there's a rising probability of a recession in the States. I think we're pretty much there in Europe. Trade Wars. Inverted yield curves. I could honestly list off a long list of reasons. I even think there's an argument for bitcoin at the moment.

And this all comes from someone who normally advocates against the majority of non-incoming producing assets such as gold.

For what it's worth I also don't think gold represents the best trade in terms of risk reward at current prices. The trade for that was when it went through the $1400 level. The best trade that I can see now is on the short end of the US curve - Eurodollars and 2 Year Notes. That's where I've placed my bets anyway.

pearcider

mono627 wrote: »

Is your whole argument that the inflation figures are off? If that's your argument then I respectfully disagree with your whole thesis. I by no means think CPI or PCE are perfect, they have plenty of flaws in the way they're measured but discounting them completely is ridiculous.

Have you looked at commodities lately? GSCI commodity index? Do you factor commodity prices into the mix at all?

Has fillet steak gone up in price? When was the last time you checked the price of Live Cattle? That's not a bullish chart mate. We're on the opposite end of the inflation scale at the moment, it may change, but that's where we are.

I'm well aware of the theory that low interest rates can create inflation and that there's always the potential that it's brewing under the hood we're nowhere near that now by any standard measure.

We've missed all of the inflation targets for nearly a decade.

If you're so well read in your history then surely you're aware that when we need to we can jam on the breaks for interest rates very, very quickly if inflation does come about. The knock on effects are pretty bad for asset prices but it's been done before.

Volcker could raise interest rates because the debt to gdp ratio was tiny, the US consumer was a prudent saver and the US government was running a balanced book. So the exact opposite of the situation now. That’s my point. This time the Fed will have to let the inflation burn the whole charade to the ground. I’m long gold but it sounds like you are too?. The fed will actually be forced to cut again this year or the stock market is goosed. Im not a trader but my long term price for gold is that an ounce of gold will buy the Dow by the time the bull turns.

mono627

pearcider wrote: »

Volcker could raise interest rates because the debt to gdp ratio was tiny, the US consumer was a prudent saver and the US government was running a balanced book. So the exact opposite of the situation now. That’s my point. This time the Fed will have to let the inflation burn the whole charade to the ground. I’m long gold but it sounds like you are too?. The fed will actually be forced to cut again this year or the stock market is goosed. Im not a trader but my long term price for gold is that an ounce of gold will buy the Dow by the time the bull turns.

I wouldn't argue against being long gold. And as I've also said I don't think long gold is the best trade out there either. I think the front end of the US yield curve is.

I just don't think being long gold because there's inflation is in any way correct.

pearcider

mono627 wrote: »

I wouldn't argue against being long gold. And as I've also said I don't think long gold is the best trade out there either. I think the front end of the US yield curve is.

I just don't think being long gold because there's inflation is in any way correct.

There is a bit of consumer inflation it’s more than 2% but not outrageous at least not in the advanced economies. In many large countries such as India Brazil Iran Russia Turkey South Africa and Argentina it is quite significant. It can jump from 2-5-10 in days as well if the velocity of money picks up.

Huge inflation in property and the stock market though. These asset classes are ripe for tremendous falls.

Gold for me is not a trade. It’s at best an investment for my children and at worst a form of insurance for my cash in the bank. Also I don’t know anything about bitcoin but it seems to me it’s correlated to equities...so not a great place to be.

mono627

pearcider wrote: »

There is a bit of consumer inflation it’s more than 2% but not outrageous at least not in the advanced economies. In many large countries such as India Brazil Iran Russia Turkey South Africa and Argentina it is quite significant. It can jump from 2-5-10 in days as well if the velocity of money picks up.

Huge inflation in property and the stock market though. These asset classes are ripe for tremendous falls.

Gold for me is not a trade. It’s at best an investment for my children and at worst a form of insurance for my cash in the bank. Also I don’t know anything about bitcoin but it seems to me it’s correlated to equities...so not a great place to be.

I think I will have to just agree to disagree with this inflation argument. I don't think you can just make up your own inflation figures.

The standard inflation figures (CPI and PCE) say we've been roughly 1.7% average for a decade, below the expectations of 2%. Commodities are also really weak looking at the GSCI commodity index. Hence low inflation.

What does it matter if there's inflation in Venezuala, Argentina, Turkey? What effect will that have on gold?

Of course stock markets are overvalued, we've had low rates for a decade, there's not many other places for money to go. But trying to pick the top of a ten year bull rally is a mugs game. It's a low quality trade.

For me, gold is not a long term solution. I don't think any fixed dollar assets are. It is the right place for a while. Not sure how long. Long term I think you'll always be better off in quality businesses.

But hey, that's what makes a market.

Hope you do really well in your gold mate.

Voltex

My own worry in is in the realm of corporate bonds. The level of non-financials corporate borrowings as a % of GDP is the highest since records began in the US...basically corporations gorging on almost zero rate loans. When some of the investments banks started citing tougher trading conditions in Q2, fund managers started pulling money from equities and into fixed income - hence the yield curve inversion, which is all the way from the 1 year/20 year.

There's some very big US corps badly exposed like GE whose bonds are trading close to junk right now. Therefore as an alternative...I'd be buying gold, but not as a currency hedge.

mono627

Voltex wrote: »

My own worry in is in the realm of corporate bonds. The level of non-financials corporate borrowings as a % of GDP is the highest since records began in the US...basically corporations gorging on almost zero rate loans. When some of the investments banks started citing tougher trading conditions in Q2, fund managers started pulling money from equities and into fixed income - hence the yield curve inversion, which is all the way from the 1 year/20 year.

There's some very big US corps badly exposed like GE whose bonds are trading close to junk right now. Therefore as an alternative...I'd be buying gold, but not as a currency hedge.

100%. That BBB market is frightening with the sheer amount of debt. Junk bond market won’t be able to take a downgrade of any of the bigger boys (GM, GE, AT&T).

If and when a recession actually comes along it’s going to be a complete clusterfcuk.

Corporates really lost the run of themselves altogether.

As you said just another reason to own gold at the moment.

Mach 3

The way I see it we have three old fashioned variables that are going to come to a head over the next year:

1) People
2) Central Banks
3) Political

Slice or dice it any way you want, it will come down to the reaction of each variable to the other. Every thing else is peripheral.
Same auld, same auld, but maybe just maybe this time is different.

pearcider

Quite the day in the silver and gold market. Another key resistance taken out by gold and silver up 5%..imagine if a genuine crisis happened.

Mach 3

pearcider wrote: »

Quite the day in the silver and gold market. Another key resistance taken out by gold and silver up 5%..imagine if a genuine crisis happened.

Be careful with that key resistance on gold. If you were in early it could wise to take a slice off and go for a pint. See how it is by the end of the week. Check out weekly closes around this level from years ago on the way down. It is easy to get back in after the air is clear.
As far as I'm concerned silver broke key resistance weeks ago. The spike one night in 2016 didn't come close to the real key resistance level in Silver.

pearcider

I don’t day trade myself. But I wouldn’t fight the biggest bull market we will ever see in precious metals. There are still quite a few head winds to gold notably FED rate not at zero yet and USD still relatively strong. US is almost certainly in recession already imo but once it does and the Fed cut to zero and restart QE, gold will explode.

JMMCapital

I own both Gold and silver physically. I've picked out a few stocks to invest in too so i'll be buying into them as soon as i lodge money into my trading account. I'd like to have 10% of my portfolio in Gold/Silver probably be close to 20% with stocks included, listening to Ray Dalio and Peter Schiff it's always good to have atleast 10% of your portfolio invested in gold.

pearcider

JMMCapital wrote: »

I own both Gold and silver physically. I've picked out a few stocks to invest in too so i'll be buying into them as soon as i lodge money into my trading account. I'd like to have 10% of my portfolio in Gold/Silver probably be close to 20% with stocks included, listening to Ray Dalio and Peter Schiff it's always good to have atleast 10% of your portfolio invested in gold.

Still a great time to get into the junior miners and explorers I think. These boys are going to clean up when gold takes out its previous USD high and we enter recession. Most of a gold mines expenses are correlated to the industrial commodities like oil and if those costs collapse in gold terms, as they should in a bust, their margins will simply be unreal.

Mach 3

pearcider wrote: »

IBut I wouldn’t fight the biggest bull market we will ever see in precious metals. 0

This put me thinking and I had a look around-and I havn't seen any of the " we buy your gold" stalls in any of the shopping centres like the last biggest precious metals "bull market".
Good business idea for you.

pearcider

Mach 3 wrote: »

This put me thinking and I had a look around-and I havn't seen any of the " we buy your gold" stalls in any of the shopping centres like the last biggest precious metals "bull market".
Good business idea for you.

The writing is on the wall for the USD. Once the t bills go negative and they surely must, gold will be the only game left in town. Where else is there to go? The world will return to the discipline of the gold standard which was abandoned by a foolish and profligate US administration 47 years ago. The result has been the largest credit bubble in history. All of this has happened before and was well known even to the ancient Greeks. Eventually the rush will be to gold. For there is no other form of money that doesn’t have counter party risk.

drunkmonkey

pearcider wrote: »

The writing is on the wall for the USD. Once the t bills go negative and they surely must, gold will be the only game left in town. Where else is there to go?

What do you make of buying legal title to gold in Brinks vaults with a digital token https://medium.com/paxos/introducing-pax-gold-physical-gold-on-the-digital-blockchain-30335b377fa2
It's launching this month..

pearcider

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What do you make of buying legal title to gold in Brinks vaults with a digital token https://medium.com/paxos/introducing-pax-gold-physical-gold-on-the-digital-blockchain-30335b377fa2
It's launching this month..

I would view it as one more sign that the return of the gold standard is inevitable. Not sure of the veracity of paxos contracts but for me the old adage would apply, if you don’t hold it you don’t own it. In a genuine crisis (collapse of USD, bond market collapse, major war etc) I’m not sure how the guarantee of delivery would hold up.

BrokenArrows

Gold took a dive yesterday. A bit of a correction after a no deal brexit became less likely.

I think gold is great place to make a quick profit, but you have to pay attention as it swings rapidly. Any news around the world is likely to swing the price rapidly in any direction. China/US relations, Brexit, European economic output, exchange rates, base interest rate changes, wars etc.

Ive been in and out of gold plenty of times over the past few years, mainly buying into funds tracking gold miners. The problem with miners is that the price tends to crash hard when the gold price drops. eg. The gold price dropped 2% yesterday, but miners dropped about 4.5% on average. But on the other side they also rise more when the gold price rises.

BrokenArrows

Another loss for gold today as the US job report was lower than expected.

Miners taking a hammering, down 10% on average over 2 days. That's good for me, I'll jump back into them when things turn around.