Commodities (including Gold BUGS)

Mach 3 wrote: »

Do you use this knowledge to your advantage?

Yes. I've been trading in and out of gold miner funds for the past few months.

I would have made more profit had it just been left in at the start of the bull run in gold. But you can't predict gold over a long period of time. It's affected by so many factors you just need to work with what you know in any given week.

I've made 45% returns in the past 3 months.

Totally unsustainable outside of a bull market.

Mach 3 wrote: »

And there goes Trump - on about banning non tobacco flavoured vaping.
Bet you guys seen those stalls in the shopping centres.
Well done to anyone that did use this knowledge or intends too.

Will be interesting to see what Draghi does today. Rate is at 0.25% and incredibly the market consensus is that he will cut to zero to give the last bit of monetary stimulus to the euro system that is available. Will he go below zero as suggested in a recent and widely publicized IMF paper by Ruchir Agarwal. Note the IMF chief is taking over from Draghi on 1st November. To borrow a phrase from Steve Bannon the “party of Davos” may be signaling that a major inflection point of the international monetary system is approaching.

From my reading of it gold wins either way. If Draghi disappoints the markets, gold will go up as fear of global recession returns. If he stimulates, gold may suffer short term but will actually be bullish long term as this represents a central bank white flag on interest rate “normalization” and therefore it’s defense of the current monetary system.

For the precious metal investor, heads we win, tails we win. Jean le rond d’Almabert is surely smiling from above.

pearcider wrote: »

The Fed have pretty much restarted quantitive easing - at least 75 billion a day until October 10th. They don’t even know what caused the mini credit crunch on Tuesday but what should be clear is the system is perilously unstable due to artificially low interest rates. All that stands between the abyss of a credit collapse is the feds credibility and it’s already stretched balance sheet. I fully expect their balance sheet to go back above 4 trillion and continue to rise. Who will bail out the Fed when the US deficit is already a trillion...who knows but he who holds the gold will make the rules.

China ironically, they have been bailing the US out all a long. Maybe trump should start to show a little more respect

That bet isn’t looking great for you now. I’m still long gold and long the miners. The fact that we’ve breached 1600 with the dollar so strong is disturbing but unsurprising to people who see the insane monetary policy of the central banks for what it is. Insanity. Unfortunately there is no way out for the central planners except for a complete collapse of the credit bubble either by raising interest rates or massive money printing and inflation.

Obviously it was a sporting bet...I just hope you didn’t put your money where your mouth is!

Top Wealth Club wrote: »

Personally I'm doing well in the Crypto markets and believe in a few years crypto will become a major player in the world financial markets.
It's easy to start earning good returns in Ethereum starting with under $10

We don’t know how crypto will perform in the next financial crisis. But we know how precious metals will. They are proven over millenia.

pearcider wrote: »

Haha gold is still up 4% this month and 15% this quarter. It could fall a lot more and still be in a bull market. I’m surprised how resilient it is. I expect it to take out 1700 in March. In gold we trust.

1700 already wow.

greenfield21 wrote: »

Buy gold they say- 1587 now.

It’s down 1% this month. How much is the stock market down? Or bitcoin? Anyway the bubble is popped and now gold will go to 10k or more. Grab it while you can.

Gold is still Up 15% on the year. The silver price is a joke. You can’t buy physical for that price. A lot of the coin dealers are selling out and the spreads and premiums are exploding,

Gold is performing brilliantly. Buy it if you still can. It’s the only thing which will protect your savings in the coming inflation. You may struggle to get physical delivery at this stage...you can’t buy house insurance when your house is on fire.

Mach 3 wrote: »

Did you not sell at 1700?

I would sell my gold when the federal reserves balance sheet (5 trillion and rising) is 100% backed by the US gold reserves (8000 tonnes.) this last happened in 1980.

greenfield21 wrote: »

I don't know if it's a dead cat bounce but maybe miners are starting to get some love again. Topped barrick and Kinross earlier. Crazy moves of the earlier lows.

The outlook for the big dividend payers is rosy. These guys are cash machines and their energy costs are collapsing. You can’t beat Franco Nevada.

Thelonious wrote: »

Further down the road keep an eye on quality copper miners. There is a commodity price boom coming down the line. Gold miners do look good right now. Gold is very subdued though, I don't like to see that though.



When the stock market melts down and everone knows in their hearts it's done for a few years, that's when speculators like to turn their attention to commodities. It's the equivalent of betting on the dogs after the horses are finished .

Nice analogy. There’s a compelling interview out there with the founder of Wheaton precious metals where he talks about how the final bubbles, after all other bubbles have popped will be commodities and then gold. Reminded me of the short story by Isaac Asimov called The Last Question. In the long run we are all dead.

A lot of the big bullion dealers are sold out of gold. I’ve never seen that before and yet the futures price is sitting at 1500USD...Scary times.

makeorbrake wrote: »

Bitcoin is up 60% from the date you posted to today.

It’s lost 65 % of its value from it’s peak. In any case, I don’t see the central banks of the world keeping large reserves of bitcoin nor does bitcoin have a 5000 year history of wealth preservation. I’ll pass.

makeorbrake wrote: »

Why measure from it's peak? Try a different metric. Measure from the lowest btc price each year - and you'll see it's consistently moved upwards year on year. Best investment of the last decade.


For sure it doesn't have a 4,000 year track record. There's greater risk with bitcoin as it's formative but with that risk comes far greater upside potential than gold (or any other asset).

As regards a CB buying it, that doesn't have to happen for it to be a success. I believe it will happen - but in a longer timeframe. First slowly and then all at once.

If I want risk I will gamble on sports or invest in equities. Gold is insurance. Maybe you’re right that btc will be the best investment ever but I’m too long in the tooth for it to interest me. Working the remote control is a challenge for me.

pearcider wrote: »

Nixon broke the link with the dollar and the gold standard because of US profligacy. It wasn’t because it broke. It was working perfectly by limiting how much paper could be printed and by draining US gold reserves as they made terrible policy decisions in the 60s. But now the end is near and he who holds the gold will make the rules.

Dead right on the gold standard. It seems people at the time didn't fully understand the stroke that was pulled back then...nor do they now for the most part but they are going to.