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Super Typhoon Hagibis threatens Japan

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    #92
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Latest satellite sequence:
    XEPOJtK.gif


    tumblr_md8ktikupb1qjwijto1_500.gif

    New Moon



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    #93
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    These are some hourly rainfall totals, even if it is a mountain station! :eek:

    492827.PNG


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    #94
    mrtom
    Registered Users Posts: 675 ✭✭✭mrtom


    945 Hpa

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/zo1knhhpqaaw2t0/Thphoon%20Hagabis.mp4?dl=0


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    #95
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest mean winds (in m/s) around the Tokyo region.

    201910122000-00.png

    201910122000-00.png

    Meanwhile, Fukuoka's getting a light northeasterly breeze of around 6 m/s.

    201910122000-00.png


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    #96
    andymx11
    Registered Users Posts: 586 ✭✭✭andymx11


    Is the worst over ???


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    #97
    schmoo2k
    Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    andymx11 wrote: »
    Is the worst over ???

    I would say so:
    201910122300-00.png


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    #98
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Peak wind at Tokyo Haneda airport was 67 gust 84 knots at 12Z.
    METAR RJTT 121200Z 17067G85KT 1500 R16R/1100V1600N R22/0900V1500N R16L/1300N R23/0325V0750N SHRA BR FEW006 BKN007 BKN015 23/22 Q0967 NOSIG=

    Now it's down to just 12 knots. Rain is the problem.

    https://www.ogimet.com/display_metars2.php?lang=en&lugar=Rjtt&tipo=ALL&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&ano=2019&mes=10&day=11&hora=15&anof=2019&mesf=10&dayf=12&horaf=15&minf=59&send=send


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    #99
    caff
    Registered Users Posts: 954 ✭✭✭caff


    andymx11 wrote: »
    Is the worst over ???


    Only halfway from news coverage here


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    #100
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just watching news here, an eyewitness account from south of Tokyo seemed to be saying that a damaging tornado occurred fairly early in the event, like maybe Saturday morning local time. That resulted in a few casualties. Otherwise so far no reports of any other deaths but from those rainfall reports in the mountains some severe flooding must be underway you would think. The centre of the circulation appeared to go right over Tokyo about 14-15z.


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    #101
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Just watching news here, an eyewitness account from south of Tokyo seemed to be saying that a damaging tornado occurred fairly early in the event, like maybe Saturday morning local time. That resulted in a few casualties. Otherwise so far no reports of any other deaths but from those rainfall reports in the mountains some severe flooding must be underway you would think. The centre of the circulation appeared to go right over Tokyo about 14-15z.

    NHK showed the video this morning. It didn't say there were any casualties, though.

    The flooding is the big thing alright. Looks like Kanagawa and Shizuoka prefectures got it worst, with plenty of rivers at critical levels earlier. Hakone (855 amsl) in Kanagawa already had over 800 mm storm total a few hours ago.


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    #102
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    They've just shown that 1001 mm fell in 48 hours at Hakone


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    #103
    Chris_5339762
    Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Thats a METER of rain. Imagine a meter of rain falling in the Wicklow mountains and what that would do to the rivers.


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    #104
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Chris_5339762 wrote: »
    Thats a METER of rain. Imagine a meter of rain falling in the Wicklow mountains and what that would do to the rivers.

    I can never know how to conceptualise rainfall by the height measure...

    I think, the size (radius) of the collecting device doesn't matter, is that correct? As in the area of the device and the rainfall cancel each other out, mathematically speaking?

    Yet we talk of mm or inches of rain over many hours. I'd imagine leaving a bucket out in a heavy shower would collect a lot more than that? Am I thinking about it incorrectly?


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    #105
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,637 ✭✭✭✭josip


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I can never know how to conceptualise rainfall by the height measure...

    I think, the size (radius) of the collecting device doesn't matter, is that correct? As in the area of the device and the rainfall cancel each other out, mathematically speaking?

    Yet we take of mm or inches of rain over many hours. I'd imagine leaving a bucket out in a heavy shower would collect a lot more than that? Am I thinking about it incorrectly?


    A 30cm high bucket with straight sides, would have been filled over 3 times


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    #106
    gozunda
    Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    They'e now saying there's just been an earthquake offshore to the southeast but there is no danger of a tsunami. That's all they need...

    Always reckoned that if there is a god - he doesn't like Japan particularly much ...


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    #107
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    josip wrote: »
    A 30cm high bucket with straight sides, would have been filled over 3 times

    Well that is a lot, but I'm more talking about the general point. I must try it sometime, leaving a bucket out and seeing how much water it collects.


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    #108
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I can never know how to conceptualise rainfall by the height measure...

    I think, the size (radius) of the collecting device doesn't matter, is that correct? As in the area of the device and the rainfall cancel each other out, mathematically speaking?

    Yet we talk of mm or inches of rain over many hours. I'd imagine leaving a bucket out in a heavy shower would collect a lot more than that? Am I thinking about it incorrectly?

    It's simply the depth of water that would accumulate on a horizontal solid surface from all the rain. 1 mm is equivalent to 1 litre per metre squared. If you had a flat tray of sides 1 metre x 1 metre, 1 mm is the depth that would accumulate if you pour 1 litre of water into it. That same tray up in Hakone has had 1001 litres (1 tonne) of water poured into it overt he past two days.


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    #109
    fryup
    Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Just watching news here, an eyewitness account from south of Tokyo seemed to be saying that a damaging tornado occurred fairly early in the event,

    a tornado within a hurricane? is that common?


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    #110
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    fryup wrote: »
    a tornado within a hurricane? is that common?

    They are known to sometimes occur in the rain bands well out ahead of an approaching hurricane. You'll often see reference to them in the NHC advisories.


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    #111
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    So as I said before now typhoon is gone Scotland game should be ok.....bar floods


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    #112
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    It's going ahead alright

    https://twitter.com/rugbyworldcup/status/1183198965795147776?s=19


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    #113
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Windwise Hagibis was a fairly tame Cat 1 on landfall. The major story was the rain.

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2019_20W/web/track.png

    492897.PNG

    The highest gusts recorded anywhere on the islands or mainland were

    87 kt - Kozushima Island (see map).
    85 kt - Yokohama
    84 kt - Tokyo Haneda Airport

    The highest 10-minute mean speed I could find was 67 knots at Haneda airport.

    800px-Map_of_Izu_Islands.png

    Rainwise, I think Hakone was the highest total, with 1001 mm overall, 922.5 of which fell in 22 hours yesterday...


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    #114
    mrtom
    Registered Users Posts: 675 ✭✭✭mrtom


    I have read that Hagbis has pumped so much warm moist air into the upper atmosphere that it is causing the jet stream to accelerate due to the sharper contrast in temperatures.

    What if any impact would be observed here ?


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    #115
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    mrtom wrote: »
    I have read that Hagbis has pumped so much warm moist air into the upper atmosphere that it is causing the jet stream to accelerate due to the sharper contrast in temperatures.

    What if any impact would be observed here ?

    That happens anywhere that there's a difference between tropical and more polar airmasses. It happens over the Atlantic too, especially when cold polar air comes off NE Canada/Greenland. There's nothing special about Hagibis in this regard.


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    #116
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Now that Typhoon Bagpuss is over we go back to concentrating on our own non stop typhoons and floods


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    #117
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    pauldry wrote: »
    So as I said before now typhoon is gone Scotland game should be ok.....bar floods with Scottish rugby fans.

    FYP


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    #118
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I saw a news headline yesterday stating that the death toll from this event was 48. Considerable and always tragic but given the population of the region, a far cry from the worst case scenario. My daughter was on a holiday trip to Kyoto last year when that other typhoon came ashore in Osaka. She said that while the media in Japan issue plenty of warnings and information, the concept of everyone going to safety is a bit eroded by the non-stop pace of Japanese commerce (that one hit mid-day during the working week too). Some of the handful of casualties in that typhoon occurred when people at work were killed, either by falling objects or being delivery drivers in blown-over trucks.

    After the headline about the 48 deaths, I never saw the actual story but I assume that most of those would have been caused by flooding, as well as the small toll caused by that localized tornado. As GL commented, that's quite a normal feature of hurricanes and typhoons and they do tend to occur well out in advance of the core in rain bands that develop severe storm cells. They often move southeast to northwest in the northern hemisphere. I can't recall any that caused fatalities before this one, but they have probably happened in some North American storms. This should be considered separate from any descriptions of small intense cores like Andrew (1992) developing "tornado-like" eyewalls. This activity is well out ahead of the core rather than near the eyewall, let's say 150-300 miles as a rough estimate.


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