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Property Market 2019

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    #2492
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    SirGerryAdams wrote: »
    Central bank rules did what it was supposed to, but it didn't really do what people thought it would do.

    It has limited the risk of the banks. That is all.

    The prices of middle prices houses are far overpriced now compared to the upper ends of the market.

    If you had 100 couples looking for a mortgage in 2006 on a combined salary of 100k, 70 might have bought for 350k and maybe 30 for 450k.

    Today, of those same couples on same salary, 100 of them would be looking at 350k houses. So instead of 70 couples fighting for the same houses you have 100 couples now, increasing the price even further!

    The market is demand and supply. You can't alter that effect by any policy.

    If someone can't buy, they're renting. If more people are renting with the same short supply rents will be higher. If rents are higher yields are higher. Rental income will determine house price.

    I think that contradictory. If it had no effect, then none what you said would been happening. Therefore it does have an effect.

    It has stopped a lot of people (not all certainly) from over extending themselves. They might not be happy about it. But thats what it has done.


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    #2493
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    Evd-Burner wrote: »
    I am in the process of buying a house as I have to move out of my parents by 30. I don't have enough money to pay rent at over 2k per month, whereas the mortgage will be 1100, even with tax and insurances, upkeep etc it is still well below 2k. I like everyone else I know are buying because I can no longer wait. If things crash I may not be able to get credit to buy in the future.

    Did you sign a contract at some point with the old pair? or is this self imposed exit criteria.


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    #2494
    Evd-Burner
    Registered Users Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭Evd-Burner


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    Did you sign a contract at some point with the old pair? or is this self imposed exit criteria.

    Not a contract, but was told when I moved back home in mid 20's that I can stay until 30 and use 2 rooms for myself and the kids when I have them. I was given plenty of time to save and I have been reminded on many occasions that I must be either out by 30 or in the process of buying and I am currently in the process of buying.


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    #2495
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    I'd imagine that's a pretty common state of play. Children who want to move out but have to move back in to save for a deposit. Current valuations mean the parents property is worth a lot but the same valuations prevent their kids from getting on the ladder...

    Do high valuations suit anyone?


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    #2496
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Valuation on a property you've been in for 20+ years aren't going to mean much as you are unlikely to sell.


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    #2497
    Mickiemcfist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭Mickiemcfist


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    I'd imagine that's a pretty common state of play. Children who want to move out but have to move back in to save for a deposit. Current valuations mean the parents property is worth a lot but the same valuations prevent their kids from getting on the ladder...

    Do high valuations suit anyone?

    Suits the banks balance sheets & for some reason people who never want to sell are still obsessed with it.


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    #2498
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Mickiemcfist wrote: »
    Suits the banks balance sheets & for some reason people who never want to sell are still obsessed with it.

    The bad thing for those obsessed with property prices being high is that there is a dwindling pool of first time buyers that can afford to buy and there is absolutely nothing which is slowing the decline of first time buyers in the market.

    Considering the rental crisis is getting worse with far less rental properties being made available than the increasing demand requires, in ten years there could be a flood of second hand properties on the market because there aren't enough buyers to afford them and their renovation costs which should bring the prices way down and to a more appropriate level in line with wages.

    I've posted before about two houses near my parents home in the ca. 1.2m asking price category on the market for a few months at this stage. Those looking to upgrade to these kind of properties will start to struggle to get the appropriate asking price on their own homes needed to meet these valuations and their asking prices will have to start to reduce due to the lack of first time buyers there to take the upgrade property off the hands of these owners.


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    #2499
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,717 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    OMG house prices are falling off a cliff... BUY, BUY, BUY!!!
    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/revealed-house-prices-in-dublin-falling-by-1000-a-month-38246221.html

    What? House prices are rising? SELL! QIUCKLY!!
    https://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-increase-dublin-nationwide-4696800-Jun2019/


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    #2500
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Mickiemcfist wrote: »
    Suits the banks balance sheets & for some reason people who never want to sell are still obsessed with it.

    The banks are not in any better shape than they were five years ago if the share price of Bank of Ireland is anything to go by?


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    #2501
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    OMG house prices are falling off a cliff... BUY, BUY, BUY!!!


    What? House prices are rising? SELL! QIUCKLY!!
    The average price of a house in Dublin has increased once again to €388,000




    Typical Journal clickbait rubbish headline. The daft report uses asking prices of sample size of 5000 properties advertised on daft. But they got the headline they wanted.


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    #2502
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    cisk wrote: »
    The average price of a house in Dublin has increased once again to €388,000




    Typical Journal clickbait rubbish headline. The daft report uses asking prices of sample size of 5000 properties advertised on daft. But they got the headline they wanted.

    And it’s a year on year increase of just 0.9%. Suggesting if you looked at the last 3 or 6 months that even asking prices are most likely not rising.


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    #2503
    airportgirl83
    Registered Users Posts: 149 ✭✭airportgirl83


    cisk wrote: »
    Bluefoam wrote: »
    OMG house prices are falling off a cliff... BUY, BUY, BUY!!!


    What? House prices are rising? SELL! QIUCKLY!!
    The average price of a house in Dublin has increased once again to €388,000




    Typical Journal clickbait rubbish headline. The daft report uses asking prices of sample size of 5000 properties advertised on daft. But they got the headline they wanted.

    I highly dislike that website. As you said - got the headline. My preference would be for I Times articles tbh.


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    #2504
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Reversal wrote: »
    And it’s a year on year increase of just 0.9%. Suggesting if you looked at the last 3 or 6 months that even asking prices are most likely not rising.

    It would be interesting to know how this breaks down say for properties under and over 400.


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    #2505
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    airportgirl83 wrote: »
    I highly dislike that website. As you said - got the headline. My preference would be for I Times articles tbh.

    Just be wary of the IT.

    Look at this headline;

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/easing-mortgage-caps-is-lenders-top-priority-for-new-central-bank-governor-1.3933697?mode=amp

    "Easing mortgage caps is lenders' top priority for new Central Bank governor."

    Yet the article only mentions that there will be lobbying attempts made by certain industry interests to ease the caps. This is not the priority of the governor. The article then concludes why the mortgage caps should not be eased!

    "Relaxing credit rules would allow prices to rise, thus increasing profits and attracting more developers into the fray.

    But we know how that story ultimately ends; we found out 12 years ago when the last credit-fuelled housing bubble burst."

    In summary, relaxing the mortgage caps would result in higher prices, more profits for developers and a crash.


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    #2506
    tobsey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Just be wary of the IT.

    Look at this headline;

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/easing-mortgage-caps-is-lenders-top-priority-for-new-central-bank-governor-1.3933697?mode=amp

    "Easing mortgage caps is lenders' top priority for new Central Bank governor."

    Yet the article only mentions that there will be lobbying attempts made by certain industry interests to ease the caps. This is not the priority of the governor. The article then concludes why the mortgage caps should not be eased!

    "Relaxing credit rules would allow prices to rise, thus increasing profits and attracting more developers into the fray.

    But we know how that story ultimately ends; we found out 12 years ago when the last credit-fuelled housing bubble burst."

    In summary, relaxing the mortgage caps would result in higher prices, more profits for developers and a crash.

    The headline isn't very clear, but it doesn't state that increasing the limits is the new governor's top priority, it's saying it's the lender's top priority. It's what they want, and what they are going to lobby for.


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    #2507
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    The banks are not in any better shape than they were five years ago if the share price of Bank of Ireland is anything to go by?

    They are. Share price isn't really a great indicator for solvency or liquidity in and of itself.

    Irish banks are in a far better state than five years ago.


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    #2508
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Amirani wrote: »
    They are. Share price isn't really a great indicator for solvency or liquidity in and of itself.

    Irish banks are in a far better state than five years ago.

    Ah I know, I'm just venting about the share price


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    #2509
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,717 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    It's the first time buyers fault... They are driving up prices...
    The Irish Times: Help to Buy sees first-time buyers drive growth in prices.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/help-to-buy-sees-first-time-buyers-drive-growth-in-prices-1.3937381?localLinksEnabled=false


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    #2510
    alwald
    Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭alwald


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    It's the first time buyers' scheme fault... They are that's driving up prices...

    I corrected your sentence to make it more accurate.


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    #2511
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,717 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    alwald wrote: »
    Bluefoam wrote: »
    It's the first time buyers' scheme fault... They are that's driving up prices...

    I corrected your sentence to make it more accurate.
    Make your own assumptions... Don't change my statement


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    #2512
    alwald
    Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭alwald


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    Make your own assumptions... Don't change my statement

    It's not an assumption its a fact based on the content of the article...I can change any statement in my posts as long as it is within the rules of Boards.


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    #2513
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,717 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    Moderators on a power trip. I'm gonna just laugh at this thread from afar. Unfortunately it's been taken over by first time buyers and an element of entitled posters who think they are owed something.


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    #2514
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    Moderators on a power trip. I'm gonna just laugh at this thread from afar.

    Mod Note

    This is entirely you pair on your own. Neither of your posts have been edited by moderators.

    Knock it off


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    #2515
    skippy123!
    Registered Users Posts: 60 ✭✭skippy123!


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Depends on what agent you talk to, some reckon that there will be a influx of xpats British and eastern Europeans into Ireland after Brit exit, most seem to be waiting to see how it pans out and are willing to cut there losses in Britten and start fresh here


    I am sure there will be some immigration happening but specifying British expats and eastern Europeans trows a bit to racism. Ireland is not THAT perfect that everyone wants to live here. EU has a lot of country's. It doesn't contain only Ireland.


    Not being shady - just saying.


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    #2516
    Twenty Grand
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Twenty Grand


    skippy123! wrote: »
    I am sure there will be some immigration happening but specifying British expats and eastern Europeans trows a bit to racism. Ireland is not THAT perfect that everyone wants to live here. EU has a lot of country's. It doesn't contain only Ireland.


    Not being shady - just saying.
    Plenty of English speaking space in France and Spain for Brits to emigrate too.


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    #2517
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Twenty Grand wrote: »
    Plenty of English speaking space in France and Spain for Brits to emigrate too.

    Irish government will give them passports. Must be a huge number who are eligible.
    Passport office application figures at record levels the past few years.

    They should all move here. Eastern Europeans too


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    #2518
    Twenty Grand
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Twenty Grand


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    Irish government will give them passports. Must be a huge number who are eligible.
    Passport office application figures at record levels the past few years.

    They should all move here. Eastern Europeans too

    Huge economic benefit in taking a whole tranche of educated skilled workers.


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    #2519
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Twenty Grand wrote: »
    Huge economic benefit in taking a whole tranche of educated skilled workers.

    Of course. Might be time to set up an immigration model similar to Australia.

    A points based system where those with the skills required and in demand are permitted working rights and permanent stay visas.

    Would also help keep house prices nice and healthy


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    #2520
    airportgirl83
    Registered Users Posts: 149 ✭✭airportgirl83


    skippy123! wrote: »
    ZX7R wrote: »
    Depends on what agent you talk to, some reckon that there will be a influx of xpats British and eastern Europeans into Ireland after Brit exit, most seem to be waiting to see how it pans out and are willing to cut there losses in Britten and start fresh here


    I am sure there will be some immigration happening but specifying British expats and eastern Europeans trows a bit to racism. Ireland is not THAT perfect that everyone wants to live here. EU has a lot of country's. It doesn't contain only Ireland.


    Not being shady - just saying.

    Some Eastern European economies are doing very well atm e.g. Poland. Many Poles that I know living in Dublin are cashing in selling their properties atm and moving back home, some will still continue working for foreign companies but from Warsaw, Cracow etc while at the same time enjoying mortgage free lifestyle.

    Ireland benefits from low Corp Tax, it's English speaking but there are many countries in Europe that offer similar and more - better infrastructure, health care e.g. The Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany...

    I don't want to offend anyone and I do like Dublin but it has more of a village of Europe feel rather than a European metropoly. You pay a lot for everything and getting very little in return in terms of quality of life imo.


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    #2521
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    airportgirl83 wrote: »
    They might - please share the numbers if you have them handy - but it's probably nothing in comparison to 2006/7 or is it?

    Particularly if any of those number show the impact on the Property Market 2019 ;)


This discussion has been closed.
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