Property Market 2019

Sheeps

I went to view two show houses today and two very different stories. First up was city west village, which has the luas running through the development with it's own station. They have all the trimmings of a classic red victorian red brick, and they feel like quality.

I then had the opportunity to view the new park developments in Lucan, very different story. They feel like fisher price homes, and the area is completely soulless. Adamstown feels like a more plastic version of Ashtown, which has at least proximity to the city centre going for it.

Prices will need to drop a lot for there to be actual value in this country. It really feels pathetic.

Bbborris

Glenbhoy wrote: »

You might want to consider changing broker if you've engaged that person professionally then!

Details https://www.centralbank.ie/consumer-hub/explainers/what-are-the-mortgage-measures

By the way, I've seen it mentioned that you cannot get both lti and ltv exceptions, that is incorrect, banks may be reluctant to give both, but that is their own policy choice, not legislatively restricted.

Interesting.. My partner and I were aware of this, but after two banks dismissed it we gave up on it.

ZoZoZo

Hi,

It seems prices in general in many parts of Dublin are falling albeit gradually. One exception to this seems to be new builds. There seems to be a peculiar attitude that 'the price is the price' despite the developers having no qualms in raising the prices on successive phases. I'm wondering what happens though when the asking exceeds affordability levels ?
Take for example 'The Ropery' (theroperyDOTie), right in the heart of Google-land, so if there's anyone with more money than sense then it should be there. I'm not sure how many have sold but there were only 9 to begin with yet they are still trying to flog at least two different models. So, has anyone viewed these, might there be something unappealing specifically about these houses or is it just that buyers in this bracket recognize that these are just too expensive ?
They've been on for months with no takers, will the developer accept that they'll need to lower the price to shift them and on a more general not does anyone have any experience of successfully offering below the asking on a new-build ? Or conversely is there some reason why a developer simply can't reduce the price on new builds ? It just seems very odd that they are sitting there for months on end when there is a housing crisis with demand outstripping supply.

Any thoughts ?

Thanks,

Zozo

Sheeps

ZoZoZo wrote: »

Hi,

It seems prices in general in many parts of Dublin are falling albeit gradually. One exception to this seems to be new builds. There seems to be a peculiar attitude that 'the price is the price' despite the developers having no qualms in raising the prices on successive phases. I'm wondering what happens though when the asking exceeds affordability levels ?
Take for example 'The Ropery' (theroperyDOTie), right in the heart of Google-land, so if there's anyone with more money than sense then it should be there. I'm not sure how many have sold but there were only 9 to begin with yet they are still trying to flog at least two different models. So, has anyone viewed these, might there be something unappealing specifically about these houses or is it just that buyers in this bracket recognize that these are just too expensive ?
They've been on for months with no takers, will the developer accept that they'll need to lower the price to shift them and on a more general not does anyone have any experience of successfully offering below the asking on a new-build ? Or conversely is there some reason why a developer simply can't reduce the price on new builds ? It just seems very odd that they are sitting there for months on end when there is a housing crisis with demand outstripping supply.

Any thoughts ?

Thanks,

Zozo

Those particular homes are a particular brand of bs. I hope they never sell and the developer makes a giant loss. I viewed homes today with 10 sqm more at a minimum, with a back garden in City West for about 1/3rd the price. Incidentally, those houses had risen 60k from what they were a year ago, but they're selling like hot cakes.

voluntary

Sheeps wrote: »

Those particular homes are a particular brand of bs. I hope they never sell and the developer makes a giant loss. I viewed homes today with 10 sqm more at a minimum, with a back garden in City West for about 1/3rd the price. Incidentally, those houses had risen 60k from what they were a year ago, but they're selling like hot cakes.

In most cities such an expensive plot of city centre land would unlikely be used for houses. There would be a minimum 5-7 storey apartment block put on it with 40-56 dual aspect apartments sharing the cost of land and not only 9 households sharing. Building new houses around city centre is a top class sensation.


Don't blame the developer though, blame the planning, regulation and local authorities.

Dolbhad

ZoZoZo wrote: »

Hi,

It seems prices in general in many parts of Dublin are falling albeit gradually. One exception to this seems to be new builds. There seems to be a peculiar attitude that 'the price is the price' despite the developers having no qualms in raising the prices on successive phases. I'm wondering what happens though when the asking exceeds affordability levels ?
Take for example 'The Ropery' (theroperyDOTie), right in the heart of Google-land, so if there's anyone with more money than sense then it should be there. I'm not sure how many have sold but there were only 9 to begin with yet they are still trying to flog at least two different models. So, has anyone viewed these, might there be something unappealing specifically about these houses or is it just that buyers in this bracket recognize that these are just too expensive ?
They've been on for months with no takers, will the developer accept that they'll need to lower the price to shift them and on a more general not does anyone have any experience of successfully offering below the asking on a new-build ? Or conversely is there some reason why a developer simply can't reduce the price on new builds ? It just seems very odd that they are sitting there for months on end when there is a housing crisis with demand outstripping supply.

Any thoughts ?

Thanks,

Zozo

I also think the HTB is part of the reason. I know people who can only buy a new build because they won’t have the full deposit due to rent and require the HTB to fund the deposit. So second hand house aren’t an option.

Also with officially the government not extending it in the last budget, there will be a run this year on people buying new builds who maybe didn’t plan to buy this year. I live in Cork and as appears last two weeks in different areas in Cork there were queues overnight for new phases of new builds. It seems each phase in Cork goes up 15k-20k a go. But Dublin tends to set the pace so if Dublin is only starting to slightly cool now, it will take a few months for rest of country to follow.

Sheeps

Dolbhad wrote: »

I also think the HTB is part of the reason. I know people who can only buy a new build because they won’t have the full deposit due to rent and require the HTB to fund the deposit. So second hand house aren’t an option.

Also with officially the government not extending it in the last budget, there will be a run this year on people buying new builds who maybe didn’t plan to buy this year. I live in Cork and as appears last two weeks in different areas in Cork there were queues overnight for new phases of new builds. It seems each phase in Cork goes up 15k-20k a go. But Dublin tends to set the pace so if Dublin is only starting to slightly cool now, it will take a few months for rest of country to follow.

Most of the people I know are using the HTB scheme to bridge the gap between what their lender will allow them to lend, and what they've saved up as a deposit.

Dolbhad

Sheeps wrote: »

Most of the people I know are using the HTB scheme to bridge the gap between what their lender will allow them to lend, and what they've saved up as a deposit.

I was looking at a new build myself. 3 bed semi. It was the first phase and it was off plans. The developers previous estates were all 4 and 5 bed detached houses so we didn’t know what the 3 bed semi would be like (you’d be amazed how little detail are in plans). We decided not to go ahead and when it was officially released on 2nd phase a few weeks later, it had gone up 15k.

Also due to HTB, our bank was giving us a higher exemption for a new build vs what we were originally given on our AIP.

Sheeps

Dolbhad wrote: »

I was looking at a new build myself. 3 bed semi. It was the first phase and it was off plans. The developers previous estates were all 4 and 5 bed detached houses so we didn’t know what the 3 bed semi would be like (you’d be amazed how little detail are in plans). We decided not to go ahead and when it was officially released on 2nd phase a few weeks later, it had gone up 15k.

Also due to HTB, our bank was giving us a higher exemption for a new build vs what we were originally given on our AIP.

I hope you're not as depressed and demoralised looking for a home as I am. A year of this nonsense, saving 2k a month and I'm still no about 10k short of being able to afford a new build. It's like trying to climb up a moving escalator travelling the wrong direction.

Dolbhad

Sheeps wrote: »

I hope you're not as depressed and demoralised looking for a home as I am. A year of this nonsense, saving 2k a month and I'm still no about 10k short of being able to afford a new build. It's like trying to climb up a moving escalator travelling the wrong direction.

I am! Been looking since January 2018. Had to move back in with our parents (we are in our 30’s) in order to try get the deposit together. We don’t have the option of a gift from family and our combined income is under the average in Ireland so it was the only way we could have gotten the deposit. But we are lucky we had that option.

We didn’t want a new build. We only considered it cause bidding was crazy - at least with a new build you knew the price. Second hand house price could end up at anything! A few times we had offered asking and were the highest bid but seller wanted more money! And then you think I’ll save a bit more and be able to afford the house next time but prices just keep going up.

Interested Observer

I'm at the final stages now, don't have the keys yet but it's imminent. Have been trying to buy for 16 months. It is an absolute slog but you just have to stick with it.

voluntary

Green REIT investors have decided to cash out. These are in huge chunk US and foreign investment funds. They usually come with big cash and buy on the bottom and then offload near the top.
SMART money IN and now SMART money OUT. This on top of the 4 months long chart correction. Make your own judgement.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0415/1042644-green-reit-sale/

Bob24

voluntary wrote: »

Green REIT investors have decided to cash out. These are in huge chunk US and foreign investment funds. They usually come with big cash and buy on the bottom and then offload near the top.
SMART money IN and now SMART money OUT. This on top of the 4 months long chart correction. Make your own judgement.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0415/1042644-green-reit-sale/

A better summary of the link you posted would be that a particular REIT which mostly owns commercial property has decided to liquidate some of it because it is in needs for cash.

Won’t help people looking for a home very much.

tigger123

Bob24 wrote: »

A better summary of the link you posted would be that a particular REIT which mostly owns commercial property has decided to liquidate some of it because it is in needs for cash.

Won’t help people looking for a home very much.

It's changes in Government policy that's required.

There was f*ck all done for housing in the last budget. It shows you how serious the government is taking it all.

Plus, Eoghan Murphy is Minister. He's not someone with a track record of getting things done.

joshkg

Some investors choose buy real estate from Ireland through golden visa program, also some consider Portugal.
https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/where-to-buy-property-in-the-eu-post-brexit-119736
https://getgoldenvisa.com/possible-outcomes-of-brexit-in-portugal/

Zenify

Bob24 wrote: »

A better summary of the link you posted would be that a particular REIT which mostly owns commercial property has decided to liquidate some of it because it is in needs for cash.

Won’t help people looking for a home very much.

Are you aware that it needs the cash for something?

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

A better summary of the link you posted would be that a particular REIT which mostly owns commercial property has decided to liquidate some of it because it is in needs for cash.

Won’t help people looking for a home very much.

Green REIT is solely commercial property (notably office space in Dublin and Cork).

Notably- its profitability has fallen like a stone recently- with its six monthly profit report (to the end of December 2018) showing a 14% fall in profitability on the previous period- and the appreciation in asset value has fallen below 4%.

Because of this- its share price has been punished severely- to the extent its current asset value (approx. 1.48 billion) is up to 10% higher than its issued share price value.

In addition to all of this- the two instigators of the fund- have advised they have no intention of trying to take the fund private- they want to cash out.

Aka- something funny happening on the commercial side- that investors seem to their finger on- but hasn't been priced into the market at large (yet anyway). Commercial seems to have hit a brick wall. I don't recall seeing any headlines shrieking about Irish commercial property being built on quicksand- which is what is being inferred here..........

Sheeps

Dolbhad wrote: »

I am! Been looking since January 2018. Had to move back in with our parents (we are in our 30’s) in order to try get the deposit together. We don’t have the option of a gift from family and our combined income is under the average in Ireland so it was the only way we could have gotten the deposit. But we are lucky we had that option.

We didn’t want a new build. We only considered it cause bidding was crazy - at least with a new build you knew the price. Second hand house price could end up at anything! A few times we had offered asking and were the highest bid but seller wanted more money! And then you think I’ll save a bit more and be able to afford the house next time but prices just keep going up.

Deja vu.

Bob24

Zenify wrote: »

Are you aware that it needs the cash for something?

Yep, the business of that particular REIT in the commercial property space is not doing great.

But I don’t see how it helps people struggling to buy/rent a home?

voluntary

Bob24 wrote: »

Yep, the business of that particular REIT in the commercial property space is not doing great.

But I don’t see how it helps people struggling to buy/rent a home?

This thread title is "Property Market 2019".
The event like large REIT's decision to exit the investment is pretty much relevant to the property market.

I personally think that this is quite significant. One swallow doesn't make a summer but this is not the first swallow we have seen this year.

Interested Observer

voluntary wrote: »

This thread title is "Property Market 2019".
The event like large REIT's decision to exit the investment is pretty much relevant to the property market.

I personally think that this is quite significant. One swallow doesn't make a summer but this is not the first swallow we have seen this year.

What does it have to do with housing though?

Littleredcar

The_Conductor wrote: »

10 years ago- the property market was still in freefall after the worst economic calamity to hit Ireland since the beef wars of the 1930s-1940s. 5 Years ago- the recovery was very much proceeding- but at an orderly pace (in comparison to the come of the irrational 20-25% rises we saw around the year 1999-2000-2001).

Believe it or not- and despite what you read in the media- current prices, unachievable though they may be- have not reached the peaks achieved (we're still 15-20% off peaks). Rental prices- on the contrary- are an entirely different story- and only going to get worse- if we have an additional 130-140k people in Dublin in the next 3 years.

We are guilty of a complete and utter lack of preparation or planning- for an inevitably future- and on the contrary- believe that a series of knee-jerk reactions- that are hemorrhaging rental units from the market- are somehow a good thing.

We *need* a national discourse on the rental sector- along with an overhaul of planning- to reflect the fact that we need the construction of high density housing units- alongside appropriate facilities and amenities to support them- in our major urban centres.

We've now had 4 months of property price falls- nothing startling- but definitely a trend- radiating outwards from Dublin. A softly falling market- isn't necessarily a bad thing- however, the bigger issue is there no uptick in the availability of rental stock- on the contrary- it appears to be further tightening.

Yanking the rug from under the rental sector is not the answer- policies that vastly improve the supply of units to the sector- are critically needed. The key to unlocking the rental sector- is supply.

That’s correct my next door neighbour sold just before the crash. The new owners if they sold tomorrow would get at least 50,000 to 60,000 less than they paid . My friend is also still in negative equity of around 90,000

Cuddlesworth

Interested Observer wrote: »

What does it have to do with housing though?

The smart money bails first. Investment in housing died around 2004 in Ireland. And everybody ignored it.

voluntary

Interested Observer wrote: »

What does it have to do with housing though?

It's all interconnected, but not sure why are you even asking as I made no reference to housing?

Jaster Rogue

The shortage of supply is in residential accommodation, particularly the rental market and lack of smaller units in urban areas.
Commercial property is a different beast altogether and holds very little relevance to the current state of residential, apart from the word "property".
If a REIT tried to pull the same stunt with a residential investment portfolio, I might read into it a little more. But they seem to be doing the opposite with residential, every week there's news of another one snapping up an entire development or block of apartments for €X billion to invest in long-term rental.
In summary, in my opinion this news will have zero impact on addressing the fundamental problems with residential market.

The_Conductor

Interested Observer wrote: »

What does it have to do with housing though?

Commercial property- is still property- the remit of the forum is not confined to residential property.

Browney7

Littleredcar wrote: »

That’s correct my next door neighbour sold just before the crash. The new owners if they sold tomorrow would get at least 50,000 to 60,000 less than they paid . My friend is also still in negative equity of around 90,000

By "negative equity" here I assume you mean price paid versus price now as opposed to price now versus value remaining on mortgage?

If people have been on cheap trackers the property value being less than the grossly inflated price they paid when our property market was full of easy credit and 110% mortgages with everyone out of control they actually aren't badly off - they've had a roof over their head for ten years.

If property prices get back to peak levels under current market conditions (less credit in the market with LTV rules and higher taxation burdens) we are in for a world of hurt again

Bluefoam

Equity is the amount of capital you own in the house. Negative equity is where the mortgage value is higher that the relative sale price of the house, in this case you own nothing of it.

A house being worth less than you paid for it is not negaitive equity.

Eric Cartman

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

The smart money bails first. Investment in housing died around 2004 in Ireland. And everybody ignored it.

+1 , with the exception of investors afraid of the investment for visa programs closing theres a lot of that going on now.

handlemaster

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/green-reit-up-for-sale-as-company-bemoans-performance-of-its-share-price-1.3860769?mode=amp

Its interesting that green REIT have put themselves up for sale. Reading between the lines do they see bumpy roads ahead ?