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11-07-2020, 11:55   #31
Gonzo
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I still think the warmer conditions from Wednesday, particularly next weekend is still on a knife edge. The GEM has backed off yesterday's very hot run however it still get's the high here but just more sensible temperatures. The GFS does get it very warm next weekend then it quickly cools down from Sunday evening or Monday afternoon.

It wouldn't take much of an adjustment to drag that low pressure between us and Iceland a bit closer and we would end up with much cooler and unsettled conditions. I think this one will have a few downgrades and upgrades before we know for sure what will happen after Wednesday, but fingers crossed this works out in our favour and we get some real heat, even if it's just for 1 or 2 days.

At least the next week is guaranteed to be significantly dryer than the week just gone, particularly eastern areas can now start to dry out after over a week of deluges.
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12-07-2020, 02:07   #32
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Tonight's runs continue to show generally a big improvement in our weather, particularly eastern areas which have had close to a month's worth of rain since the 1st of July.

The past 48 hours has brought an end to the deluges and a drying scene. This looks like continuing with only relative small amounts of rain or showers at times over the next 7 to 10 days.

Latest GFS runs show a fairly dry scene over the next 7 to 10 days. Something we haven't seen in quiet a while.



Latest GFS rainfall predictions show a very dry scene over the next 10 days with less than 10mm over most of the country and only trace amounts of rain in some areas, particularly the midlands.



Temperatures lifting up from Thursday into Friday as a ridge builds over the country.







Temperatures next weekend possibly reaching 23 to 25C in many areas if the lows from the north don't topple in over the ridge.

GEM going for some very warm temperatures next weekend as well and the higher pressure staying with us for longer but perhaps these are an outlier, while the GFS temperatures are more realistic.







The GEM ensembles show that the GEM Operational is indeed an outlier with temperatures close to 30C in some areas, but overall most of the members are fairly warm anyway.



The UKMO looks a bit more knifes edge for us towards next weekend:



The ECM also goes for an interruption next weekend with cooler and more unsettled weather.



If the GFS and GEM models verify we could be well on our way to the warmest weather of the year next weekend. I think this will downgrade as we move towards next weekend. We could end up with one or two warm days with temperatures getting into the low twenties but I think by the time the real hot air get's close the Atlantic will break through, maybe only England and perhaps Wales getting proper warmth for a day or so next Sunday and into Monday.

Fingers crossed the GEM wins out with it's warmer and more prolonged spell of summer weather!.

My confidence isn't great on this one, particularly with the UKMO and ECM not really on board with it to the same extent. We will need a few more days of model runs similar to this and both the ECM and UKMO to agree with the other two models to start believing!
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12-07-2020, 19:52   #33
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UKMO and ECM again high pressure dominated by weekend with pretty much all of the country into the dry conditions. ECM is a warm solution.

GFS doesn't agree and brings in a northerly. Mainly settled for Ireland up until the deep depths of FI however with high pressure frequently over us. Not warm however. GFS was in the lower end of its ensembles too though not quite an outlier.

GEM is very settled and tries to bring in a northwesterly but not much is made of it and high pressure is the dominant player.

Think starting to see more clarity but I'll wait longer for agreement and things to become clear. We've all been made a fool of before.

All models named at t144:









Things upstream still not conducive to any prolonged warm and dry weather in my opinion with arctic blocking set to increase according to ECM.

Last edited by sryanbruen; 12-07-2020 at 19:59.
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15-07-2020, 12:38   #34
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It would appear we are unlikely to see anything more than a day or two of settled weather at a time over the next 2 weeks as the current pattern remains right up to the end of July.

Charts generally stick with a flat westerly and even some cold northerly shots mixed in. From this Sunday we will have a July cold snap to begin next week with several days of very cool temperatures. However it does look fairly dryish over the next week with only small amounts of rain or showers, so it won't be completely dry.

Temperatures stage a recovery to near normal values from the 23rd of July but it comes much more unsettled again with plenty of rain or showers with temperatures either normal or a little below. It looks like the azores will have another go at trying to influence our weather from next Wednesday but as has been the way throughout this summer, the Azores is unlikely to get here and will instead be kept to our south with bands of rain or showers from the Atlantic rolling in on top of it.



Early next week could have some rather chilly days and nights with night time values getting down to 4 or 5C in places, almost chilly enough for a frost.



Day time temperatures early next week will struggle between 12 and 16C generally, particularly if there is very little sunshine on offer.



Second half of next week may see temperatures recover to 14 to 17C generally, maybe one or two places could hit 19C or 20C if we get lucky with any sunshine that's going.

Not much rain over the next week other than drizzly bits of rain or showers but from next Wednesday it does turn generally wetter. Rainfall over the next 10 day period generally giving 20 to 30mm of rain across most parts with up to 50mm in parts of the west and north.



There is very little sign of a return to warmer and sunnier conditions any time soon. We may have to wait for August or September to get any sort of warm, dry and settled weather for longer than 1 or 2 days. At this stage i'm expecting July to finish up between 1 and 2 degree's below average with very low levels of sunshine overall.

We've had a very long run of poor Augusts in general but I have to wonder can August be as bad as July has been, will this pattern that has persisted throughout the summer eventually break into something warmer and more settled? Only time will tell.
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15-07-2020, 14:19   #35
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Them flat white rainfall lines auger well into the next 8 days. Not ideal temps but not often we get sustained dry weather in Ireland. MTC is giving 20 c plus temps. It will be perfect if it pans out with a bit of a moderate drying wind.

Last edited by eon1208; 15-07-2020 at 16:01.
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17-07-2020, 09:30   #36
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Any forecast for the final week of July? Is it still forecast to be intermittent bouts of LP and some drier days?
I'm not hopeful for any settled warmth!
Thanks for any information you can give!
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17-07-2020, 12:39   #37
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It seems we are stuck in this pattern of a ridge giving us a couple of settled days before fronts move again. I suppose it has to change at some stage, lets hope it happens before September.

The European long range model does offer some hope after the first week of August

Last edited by nacho libre; 17-07-2020 at 12:43.
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17-07-2020, 12:46   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wine Goddess View Post
Any forecast for the final week of July? Is it still forecast to be intermittent bouts of LP and some drier days?
I'm not hopeful for any settled warmth!
Thanks for any information you can give!
the last week of July is looking cool and unsettled and this may persist into the first week of August. No change with the weather pattern for the foreseeable future.







no shortage of low pressures around Ireland right up to the end of FI.
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17-07-2020, 12:49   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
It seems we are stuck in this pattern of a ridge giving us a couple of settled days before fronts move again. I suppose it has to change at some stage, lets hope it happens before September.

The European long range model does offer some hope after the first week of August
The long range models have performed well for most of the year but they have been well off the mark this July as they were showing a big improvement for July up to very recently and still hinting at a dryer August and Autumn. The short range models have correctly modeled an unsettled scene since the middle of June and there is no sign of any break in this pattern from the shorter range models.
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17-07-2020, 13:07   #40
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The truth hurts.

Weekend doesnt look too bad though and there will be gaps between all these rainy days.

Even sunshine and showers will beat the mist and dank of July.

I still think August will be a big improvement on July but last week of July does look horrid doesnt it.
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17-07-2020, 13:40   #41
nacho libre
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Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
The long range models have performed well for most of the year but they have been well off the mark this July as they were showing a big improvement for July up to very recently and still hinting at a dryer August and Autumn. The short range models have correctly modeled an unsettled scene since the middle of June and there is no sign of any break in this pattern from the shorter range models.
Well, we just have to hope July was a blip. Hopefully the ec46 is on to something for the second week of August, that it's not just a nw/se split regarding settled weather.
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17-07-2020, 13:58   #42
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Indeed it's not a pretty picture being painted for the end of July but it's still a long way out and the models have been wrong several times already this summer, fingers crossed, there's still a chance we could get some prolonged dry settled weather over the next 3 - 4 weeks
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17-07-2020, 15:50   #43
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Indeed it's not a pretty picture being painted for the end of July but it's still a long way out and the models have been wrong several times already this summer, fingers crossed, there's still a chance we could get some prolonged dry settled weather over the next 3 - 4 weeks
How is it that when the long term models are signalling poor weather they are rarely wrong and when they are signalling an improvement or "summer weather" they are rarely right? Is it because bad weather is easier to predict?
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17-07-2020, 15:57   #44
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How is it that when the long term models are signalling poor weather they are rarely wrong and when they are signalling an improvement or "summer weather" they are rarely right? Is it because bad weather is easier to predict?
I'm not an expert by any means but I would assume it's down to the fact that unsettled weather is our default.
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17-07-2020, 16:49   #45
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How is it that when the long term models are signalling poor weather they are rarely wrong and when they are signalling an improvement or "summer weather" they are rarely right? Is it because bad weather is easier to predict?
Not necessarily, I recall on several occasions during summer 2018 when unsettled weather was predicted and it never materialised, I think what happens is the models see a pattern happening across the Pacific and the Atlantic and they try predict how that will effect the jet stream, it just so happens we are located in the wrong location and are wide open to the effects of the jet stream movement ie. an unpredictable pattern
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