Tonight's runs continue to show generally a big improvement in our weather, particularly eastern areas which have had close to a month's worth of rain since the 1st of July.
The past 48 hours has brought an end to the deluges and a drying scene. This looks like continuing with only relative small amounts of rain or showers at times over the next 7 to 10 days.
Latest GFS runs show a fairly dry scene over the next 7 to 10 days. Something we haven't seen in quiet a while.
Latest GFS rainfall predictions show a very dry scene over the next 10 days with less than 10mm over most of the country and only trace amounts of rain in some areas, particularly the midlands.
Temperatures lifting up from Thursday into Friday as a ridge builds over the country.
Temperatures next weekend possibly reaching 23 to 25C in many areas if the lows from the north don't topple in over the ridge.
GEM going for some very warm temperatures next weekend as well and the higher pressure staying with us for longer but perhaps these are an outlier, while the GFS temperatures are more realistic.
The GEM ensembles show that the GEM Operational is indeed an outlier with temperatures close to 30C in some areas, but overall most of the members are fairly warm anyway.
The UKMO looks a bit more knifes edge for us towards next weekend:
The ECM also goes for an interruption next weekend with cooler and more unsettled weather.
If the GFS and GEM models verify we could be well on our way to the warmest weather of the year next weekend. I think this will downgrade as we move towards next weekend. We could end up with one or two warm days with temperatures getting into the low twenties but I think by the time the real hot air get's close the Atlantic will break through, maybe only England and perhaps Wales getting proper warmth for a day or so next Sunday and into Monday.
Fingers crossed the GEM wins out with it's warmer and more prolonged spell of summer weather!.
My confidence isn't great on this one, particularly with the UKMO and ECM not really on board with it to the same extent. We will need a few more days of model runs similar to this and both the ECM and UKMO to agree with the other two models to start believing!