FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Summer 2020 is finally here and this is where we like a look a bit further ahead and tease out what is in store for us over the course of 14 days. As always these charts become more unreliable the closer we get to +360 hours. Will the warm and sunny conditions always be 10 days away as we chase the heat throughout the summer? only time will tell.

The following week will be largely dominated by a cool plunge of northerlies, these will affect the majority of Ireland, UK and many parts of western Europe.

This upcoming spell of cool weather looks like it's going to be a stubborn one to shift as it lasts well into the first two weeks of June and could potentially also be at play beyond the extended range of FI.

Monday the 8th of June, temperatures begin to slowly recover slightly as we lose the northerly influence as least for now. Temperatures getting back into the mid to high teens and may reach 20C in a few midland areas.



The Azores high is still anchored out in the Atlantic with cooler air still digging at our heels, the warmer and dryer conditions out to our west doesn't really get here. There may still be some light showers or spells of rain around this time as we struggle to gain influence from the Azores high.

Wednesday 10th of June continues with a cool theme and it may become more unsettled with bands of rain or showers crossing the country from the north.





Still showery as we head towards Friday 12th of June with average temperatures. None of the showers or bands of rain look heavy at this stage. They are nowhere nearly as heavy as the usual low pressures that we frequently get from the Atlantic, but they may enough to spoil the idea of us having any settled weather.

The GFS update seems to be stuck at +252 hours so will update again later.

Gonzo

Saturday 13th of June see's a change as we begin to extend the ridge back over us, allowing warmer and more settled conditions to resume.



We finish on Wednesday 17th of June and Summer is back in control as we draw in warm easterlies from a very warm continent.





It looks a bit unstable just to our south, potential for some thundery showers perhaps in southern areas. Over the next week we will see if this return to warm and dry conditions by mid June is something more prolonged or just a brief flirt with warmth. The one thing we don't want to see is the Atlantic getting charged up for another season!

Gonzo

There are more signs that this very prolonged dry spell is coming to an end in about a week's time. Over the next week we will have some rain in the form of showers, nothing too heavy.

The ECM brings the cold northerly same as the GFS but then starts moving the jetstream north-west to south-east and is opening up the gates to some rather heavy rainfall. The ECM becomes more unsettled and is generally very cool from Wednesday to the end of it's run.

A cold weekend to come with -5C uppers just off the north coast knocking on our door. Those cold northerly winds are really going to bite on Sunday.





From Monday the 8th we get slightly milder but we bring back the westerlies with showers.



We finish on the 11th of June with a big area of low pressure ready to topple in over us with very chilly north-west winds originating from Greenland.





If the ECM verifies we really are heading into a chilly first half of June, this could give last year's cold June a run for it's money.

ECM brings rain everyday from the 7th of June:

Gonzo

Those 3 rainfall charts that I posted at the bottom of the above post have already updated and are showing much less rainfall then when I posted them....

Gonzo

tonight's GFS still continuing with the warming trend from next week, it will take a while to get back to average temperatures but then the warming just keeps on going right to the end of FI. A few of the runs are really switching on the heat towards the end of the run. This run is also a downgrade overall in terms of rainfall. Much of Europe becoming very warm or hot too.

Gonzo

We've had a fairly poor summer so far, it's been cool and unsettled much of the time since June 3rd with only a few days here and there of summer like conditions. The past 2 weeks have been particularly unseasonal and unsettled.

It does appear we are seeing signs of an improving situation into next week and possibly beyond. Nothing all that warm on the horizon but at this stage any settled conditions we get will be most welcome regardless of the temperature.

The ECM warms up a bit and settles down from this weekend. By next Thursday we are dragging in some fairly warm temperatures:





In the middle of July uppers of +10C to +12C should be enough to get some places of mid 20's or possibly slightly higher in decent spells of sunshine.

The models are in a bit of a disagreement about next week, while the ECM looks like bringing back summer from Sunday, the GEM isn't so keen on this, it does get the high pressure going this weekend, but it breaks down very quickly.

The GEM breaks things down as early as Tuesday, only going with 1 to 2 settled days.



GEM finishes with a very cool run by next Friday:


Hopefully the GEM is not right about this, however they have been a decent model this summer and have been proven right more often than the GFS over the past few weeks.

The GFS keeps us mostly settled next week with high pressure near usl but there still may be a chance of some showers at times. GFS also a cooler run than the ECM with temperatures generally high teens to maybe low 20's in a few places.

GFS holds the high pressure till about next Thursday:



By next weekend the GFS has us back into a mixed scene with a flat westerly and the azores ridge just to our south.



Out of the above the ECM would be my preferred choice with higher temperatures and generally more settled. The GEM is the coolest and most unsettled option where the settled conditions never really get a chance. The GFS shows an improving scene with some dry and settled days next week but not exciting either for those who want a prolonged and uninterrupted warm and dry spell.

eon1208

Gonzo.. Monday could be the day that breaks my plans. Met Eireann are giving rain in the Midlands and also MT is giving rain.. Is this rain a cast iron certainty.. Appreciate your follow up..

Gonzo

eon1208 wrote: »

Gonzo.. Monday could be the day that breaks my plans. Met Eireann are giving rain in the Midlands and also MT is giving rain.. Is this rain a cast iron certainty.. Appreciate your follow up..

high pressure is trying to get going from Saturday but there is the possibility that rain or showers could happen on Monday and into Tuesday from a low that could move down through the country before high pressure tries to resume again. Should know over the weekend if this will happen or not.

eon1208

Gonzo... Is that chart saying 0.5mm per hour over 6 hours.. 3mm total aporox

Gonzo

eon1208 wrote: »

Gonzo... Is that chart saying 0.5mm per hour over 6 hours.. 3mm total aporox

that chart is only a basic guide, rain fall looks light enough for Monday and not a deluge. Those charts are often well off the mark to what happens in reality, Monday is still 5 days away so it remains to be seen if we will even have rain on Monday.

Gonzo

next week's return to high pressure is pretty much a bust at this stage. We try to get a ridge this weekend but it appears as if it's not going to last more than a couple of hours to maybe 1 day. The Azores is really trying to get going in our direction but the jet stream with it's conveyor belt of lows is constantly spoiling things for us and getting in the way.

As is the way all summer we are so close to drawing in warmer and dryer conditions but the jet-stream is just refusing to get out of the way or move northwards. At this stage a return to a dryer and warmer period could be a bit like the carrot on a stick affect we get in the winter where the cold and snow is always 10 days away and eventually we run out of winter.

ECM is unsettled right to the end of it's run:



UKMO keeps us with the flat westerly for next week:



GEM is generally unsettled next week too.



GFS is now very unsettled for next week with only hints of high pressure returning around the 21st of July but even that looks flimsy.

GFS estimating 30 to 70mm of rain to fall over the coming week to 10 days. Depending on tracking of low pressures this could either upgrade or downgrade.



The wait for dry and settled weather goes on.

eon1208

Thats literally not good. Keep us posted later today for updates Gonzo.

pauldry

The Jet Stream cannot go North as there is a big wedge of High Pressure blocking up there. So we will be in this pattern until that changes which seems likely after about July 20th

sparrowcar

eon1208 wrote: »

Thats literally not good. Keep us posted later today for updates Gonzo.

If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.

newholland mad

sparrowcar wrote: »

If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.

Farmer here also and what I do is very weather dependent and I'd rarely bother looking at met eireann, I find the information here much more accurate and detailed, so personally I'm very appreciative of the guys help here.

sparrowcar

newholland mad wrote: »

Farmer here also and what I do is very weather dependent and I'd rarely bother looking at met eireann, I find the information here much more accurate and detailed, so personally I'm very appreciative of the guys help here.

No doubt and I agree about the excellent accuracy in here.
Just the expectation needs to be kept in check, especially when the previous poster is asking to be kept up to date as if its his personal weather service. The regular experts here have full time jobs and Iives going on too.

pauldry

Yes definitely agree.

Im no farmer and though I forecast here I mainly just comment. Gonzo, MTC and those guys much much better than Met Eireann who dont even get tomorrow right in my location.

The only reason I use Met Eireann is for current temperatures, yesterdays weather and climate data. Any forecasts are too generalised.

e.g Mist and drizzle almost anywhere

On boards Gonzo gives you the rain measurement in mm in the charts for the next week!

eon1208

sparrowcar wrote: »

If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.

I'm in a full time job with a very small hobby on the side that costs money as opposed to making money. I am interested in the technical aspects of the forecasts, hence the questions I sometimes ask. You shouldn't assume there is some money making agenda behind the expectation of updates as you put it. Everyone has their own reasons behind checking the weather. Be it a family birthday, a barbecue, a holiday or a field of hay for that matter. This is a superb thread for a multitude of reasons.. I prefer it to Met Eireann. So I base my judgements here as much as the Met.

eon1208

sparrowcar wrote: »

No doubt and I agree about the excellent accuracy in here.
Just the expectation needs to be kept in check, especially when the previous poster is asking to be kept up to date as if its his personal weather service. The regular experts here have full time jobs and Iives going on too.

I apologise if it sounded like that. There is not even an iota of expectation on my part. I was surprised to see your comment after an intense mornings work. This site is nobody's personal weather service. How you can even think that, the mind boggles.

sparrowcar

eon1208 wrote: »

I apologise if it sounded like that. There is not even an iota of expectation on my part. I was surprised to see your comment after an intense mornings work. This site is nobody's personal weather service. How you can even think that, the mind boggles.

How I came to that thought was when you post comments like "keep us posted Gonzo" as you have done a few times now it suggests you have an expectation of Gonzo. The rest of us are happy to wait for Gonzo to post in his own time.

Anyway waaay off topic now. Prob just a misunderstanding. Apologies for any assumptions on my behalf.

Gonzo

Thanks guys, it's great to know that all our weather updates and posts are appreciated. The main reason we all put time into posting about the weather and looking into the crystal ball of fantasy island is because we love to talk about the weather, it is interesting and challenging to try and predict it at the best of times. We are not always right, and sometimes we are even guided by incorrect or poorly performing models but as ever the weather is always a learning process due to how unpredictable it can become.

Latest updates I have today are a little bit more promising than what we've seen over the past 2 to 3 weeks. We are now beginning to see a slowly improving situation with our weather, however it does not look like it will completely settle down any time soon, more of an improving signal from atrocious conditions to something approaching normal Irish summer weather. This improving scene may only last a week before we go back to a very unsettled scene once again.

For now we have seen an end to the daily 12+ hour rain events which have frequently brought very wet conditions, particularly to some northern, north-western and eastern areas since the last week of June and the first week of July.

This weekend will be much dryer than of late and temperatures will improve a bit too. A ridge from the Azores tries to get going over Ireland this weekend on Saturday and into Sunday.

Temperatures generally 16 to 21C away from the north-west where it will remain slightly cooler with showery bits of rain or drizzle at times over the weekend, temperatures there about 13 or 14C but rain shouldn't be anywhere nearly as heavy as recent times.



Monday could be quite warm in the east and south with temperatures up to 21 or 22C in places, particularly if there are decent spells of sunshine. It will be cooler and more cloudy towards the west and north with showery rain at times as low pressure from the north-west introduces much fresher conditions there.

midweek by Tuesday we may start to lose influence from that azores ridge and it begins to push back into the middle of the Atlantic and the flat westerly continues over us with a cool and possibly showery airflow. Over the next few days it will remain cool with showery outbreaks of rain particularly in western and northern areas with the south and east staying dryer and warmer generally, but showers can break out just about anywhere. Temperatures midweek generally in the 14 to 18C range with perhaps low 20's still possible in some eastern and southern areas if there are decent sunny breaks, otherwise high teens most likely there.



Next Weekend: By next weekend there is a trend towards things turning much more unsettled once again with proper northern blocking likely to get going over Greenland. This may start to send a series of low pressures or dartboard lows our way from the very Northern parts of the Atlantic introducing possibly cooler and wetter conditions.



Next week looks very unsettled and quite cool too with winds possibly going into the north and pulling down showery outbreaks of rain and temperatures back to the low to mid teens once again. The GFS looks particularly grim from next weekend with the jet stream heading back south again with plenty of unsettled and cool and autumnal conditions. However that is all a week away so fingers crossed the GFS is overplaying it.





Overall the next week is an improvement with some light showery rain possible in the west and north at times and dryer elsewhere. Temperatures should get to the high teens at times over the next week, maybe touching 20C or 21C in spells of sunshine. It won't be completely dry as showers or drizzly rain can happen anywhere, but gone are the day long deluges of recent weeks. The next week may be a good time to try and get some gardening done and the lawns cut to take advantage of any dry and sunny weather that gets going. This is not BBQ/garden beers weather, just average Irish summer weather.

We do appear to go back to a cool and unsettled theme with plenty of rain from next weekend and into the following week. Depending on how aggressive the northern blocking becomes, it could provide us with a very cool and unsettled end of July and beginning to August, but for now that remains to be seen.

Meteorite58

Mixed Irish summer weather indeed. From +120hrs now looking on the cooler than average side by the ECM 12Z, but could get some nice sunny bright days like today with low humidity. Good sleeping weather anyway :rolleyes:

Warmest away from the NW, W and SW from +120hrs it would seem with a lot of NW'lys

FI very unpredictable and unreliable recently, any promising charts have played out very average if not poorly in the end, only the unsettled weather predictions seem to materialize.

End of this run looks better from the ECM but unsettled and cooler by the GFS.

Gonzo

even since I made this afternoon's post it's trending more unsettled and cooler. That recent ECM has now fallen in line with the very cool and unsettled GFS, not good at all.

I think the highest temperature we have seen this July is 20C. The way this July is heading we will be lucky to see anywhere in the country reach 22 or 23C.

The past 2 to 3 weeks have easily been the coldest temperature anomaly we've had since 1st of January 2020. Up to this month, the year has basically been warmer than average every month. July looks like it is already well on it's way to being a cooler or significantly cooler than average month. Temperatures in Dunsany are not far off 2C below the monthly average. If the outlook of the next 2 weeks verifies, we are going to need one hell of a scotching final week of July to turn that anomaly around.

hatrickpatrick

Why do we always have to see those beautiful yellows and oranges over Greenland in the middle of the feckin' Summer after getting nothing but PV sh!te all Winter, when they could have actually given us some epic winter spells?

(By always, I really just mean this year and last year. But still. Feck's sake.)

theoneeyedman

And it's St Swithin's Day next Wednesday.... The summer is fvcked lads!

pauldry

Dont write it off yet.

July is just fvcked bar 24th which is my kids birthday and always seems hot

theoneeyedman

pauldry wrote: »

Dont write it off yet.

July is just fvcked bar 24th which is my kids birthday and always seems hot

Yea. My comment is obviously tongue in cheek, but wondering it there is in the opinion of the experts here any relationship between the old wives tale and actual science. I've read before that the jat stream patterns in mud July tend to stay in place through August into September, and I'm wondering if this is generally accurate in the experts opinion.

Gonzo

alot of doom and gloom recently with the models. Lots of weather fans here and in the UK really getting fed up with this summer already.

Just when we think we are now on track for a cold and wet continuation of July the GEM decides to have a laugh.

The GEM has performed very well over the past 2 months, but i'm not so sure they are right about this forecast as it is a total and utter flip. The GEM has had weeks of unsettled runs and now they have this all of a sudden.

Like all other models the GEM brings in a slight ridge this weekend and early next week with temperatures close enough to normal, but from Wednesday the GEM now continues to bring in that Azores and temperatures begin to lift up and take off.



by next weekend the GEM brings +14 to +17 uppers across Ireland. Not sure what to make of this as of right now we can't even get 17C on the ground!

Somehow if this GEM manages to verify temperatures could get close to 28C in places next weekend with close to 30C possible somewhere like Oak Park or Shannon.... I think i'll need to build an extension to hide the pinch of salt.





The GFS brings in some warmth as well for next weekend but kills it off by Monday.



Are the models laughing at us or are the weather Gods beginning to feel a bit sorry for us?

Let's see what the ECM has in store for us as it is beginning to roll out now....

sryanbruen

ECM in agreement with ICON and UKMO (GEM to some extent too although goes off with a push of warmth highlighted by Gonzo above) for quite an area of high pressure to ascend from Wednesday next. This seemed to be the trend for this exact timeframe around last weekend before ECM and GFS started to go more unsettled then.

I think this is again the result of tropical cyclones causing uncertainty as per usual with the risk of getting caught in the jet stream. Lot more positives this evening if it's warm and dry weather you seek but we're still talking at least 5 days away and with the uncertainty recently, we shall see how it goes.

Meteorite58

Big flip flop again. If we see this for two more runs then I will kinda believe it could happen.


Far dryer outlook with the latest charts, good enough temperatures and getting quite warm into the mid 20's at the end of the run but we have seen that before haven't we :pac:

Who knows, things might be about to change.

Gonzo

I still think the warmer conditions from Wednesday, particularly next weekend is still on a knife edge. The GEM has backed off yesterday's very hot run however it still get's the high here but just more sensible temperatures. The GFS does get it very warm next weekend then it quickly cools down from Sunday evening or Monday afternoon.

It wouldn't take much of an adjustment to drag that low pressure between us and Iceland a bit closer and we would end up with much cooler and unsettled conditions. I think this one will have a few downgrades and upgrades before we know for sure what will happen after Wednesday, but fingers crossed this works out in our favour and we get some real heat, even if it's just for 1 or 2 days.

At least the next week is guaranteed to be significantly dryer than the week just gone, particularly eastern areas can now start to dry out after over a week of deluges.

Gonzo

Tonight's runs continue to show generally a big improvement in our weather, particularly eastern areas which have had close to a month's worth of rain since the 1st of July.

The past 48 hours has brought an end to the deluges and a drying scene. This looks like continuing with only relative small amounts of rain or showers at times over the next 7 to 10 days.

Latest GFS runs show a fairly dry scene over the next 7 to 10 days. Something we haven't seen in quiet a while.



Latest GFS rainfall predictions show a very dry scene over the next 10 days with less than 10mm over most of the country and only trace amounts of rain in some areas, particularly the midlands.



Temperatures lifting up from Thursday into Friday as a ridge builds over the country.







Temperatures next weekend possibly reaching 23 to 25C in many areas if the lows from the north don't topple in over the ridge.

GEM going for some very warm temperatures next weekend as well and the higher pressure staying with us for longer but perhaps these are an outlier, while the GFS temperatures are more realistic.







The GEM ensembles show that the GEM Operational is indeed an outlier with temperatures close to 30C in some areas, but overall most of the members are fairly warm anyway.



The UKMO looks a bit more knifes edge for us towards next weekend:



The ECM also goes for an interruption next weekend with cooler and more unsettled weather.



If the GFS and GEM models verify we could be well on our way to the warmest weather of the year next weekend. I think this will downgrade as we move towards next weekend. We could end up with one or two warm days with temperatures getting into the low twenties but I think by the time the real hot air get's close the Atlantic will break through, maybe only England and perhaps Wales getting proper warmth for a day or so next Sunday and into Monday.

Fingers crossed the GEM wins out with it's warmer and more prolonged spell of summer weather!.

My confidence isn't great on this one, particularly with the UKMO and ECM not really on board with it to the same extent. We will need a few more days of model runs similar to this and both the ECM and UKMO to agree with the other two models to start believing!

sryanbruen

UKMO and ECM again high pressure dominated by weekend with pretty much all of the country into the dry conditions. ECM is a warm solution.

GFS doesn't agree and brings in a northerly. Mainly settled for Ireland up until the deep depths of FI however with high pressure frequently over us. Not warm however. GFS was in the lower end of its ensembles too though not quite an outlier.

GEM is very settled and tries to bring in a northwesterly but not much is made of it and high pressure is the dominant player.

Think starting to see more clarity but I'll wait longer for agreement and things to become clear. We've all been made a fool of before.

All models named at t144:









Things upstream still not conducive to any prolonged warm and dry weather in my opinion with arctic blocking set to increase according to ECM.

Gonzo

It would appear we are unlikely to see anything more than a day or two of settled weather at a time over the next 2 weeks as the current pattern remains right up to the end of July.

Charts generally stick with a flat westerly and even some cold northerly shots mixed in. From this Sunday we will have a July cold snap to begin next week with several days of very cool temperatures. However it does look fairly dryish over the next week with only small amounts of rain or showers, so it won't be completely dry.

Temperatures stage a recovery to near normal values from the 23rd of July but it comes much more unsettled again with plenty of rain or showers with temperatures either normal or a little below. It looks like the azores will have another go at trying to influence our weather from next Wednesday but as has been the way throughout this summer, the Azores is unlikely to get here and will instead be kept to our south with bands of rain or showers from the Atlantic rolling in on top of it.



Early next week could have some rather chilly days and nights with night time values getting down to 4 or 5C in places, almost chilly enough for a frost.



Day time temperatures early next week will struggle between 12 and 16C generally, particularly if there is very little sunshine on offer.



Second half of next week may see temperatures recover to 14 to 17C generally, maybe one or two places could hit 19C or 20C if we get lucky with any sunshine that's going.

Not much rain over the next week other than drizzly bits of rain or showers but from next Wednesday it does turn generally wetter. Rainfall over the next 10 day period generally giving 20 to 30mm of rain across most parts with up to 50mm in parts of the west and north.



There is very little sign of a return to warmer and sunnier conditions any time soon. We may have to wait for August or September to get any sort of warm, dry and settled weather for longer than 1 or 2 days. At this stage i'm expecting July to finish up between 1 and 2 degree's below average with very low levels of sunshine overall.

We've had a very long run of poor Augusts in general but I have to wonder can August be as bad as July has been, will this pattern that has persisted throughout the summer eventually break into something warmer and more settled? Only time will tell.

eon1208

Them flat white rainfall lines auger well into the next 8 days. Not ideal temps but not often we get sustained dry weather in Ireland. MTC is giving 20 c plus temps. It will be perfect if it pans out with a bit of a moderate drying wind.

Wine Goddess

Any forecast for the final week of July? Is it still forecast to be intermittent bouts of LP and some drier days?
I'm not hopeful for any settled warmth!
Thanks for any information you can give!

nacho libre

It seems we are stuck in this pattern of a ridge giving us a couple of settled days before fronts move again. I suppose it has to change at some stage, lets hope it happens before September.

The European long range model does offer some hope after the first week of August

Gonzo

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Any forecast for the final week of July? Is it still forecast to be intermittent bouts of LP and some drier days?
I'm not hopeful for any settled warmth!
Thanks for any information you can give!

the last week of July is looking cool and unsettled and this may persist into the first week of August. No change with the weather pattern for the foreseeable future.







no shortage of low pressures around Ireland right up to the end of FI.

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

It seems we are stuck in this pattern of a ridge giving us a couple of settled days before fronts move again. I suppose it has to change at some stage, lets hope it happens before September.

The European long range model does offer some hope after the first week of August

The long range models have performed well for most of the year but they have been well off the mark this July as they were showing a big improvement for July up to very recently and still hinting at a dryer August and Autumn. The short range models have correctly modeled an unsettled scene since the middle of June and there is no sign of any break in this pattern from the shorter range models.

pauldry

The truth hurts.

Weekend doesnt look too bad though and there will be gaps between all these rainy days.

Even sunshine and showers will beat the mist and dank of July.

I still think August will be a big improvement on July but last week of July does look horrid doesnt it.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

The long range models have performed well for most of the year but they have been well off the mark this July as they were showing a big improvement for July up to very recently and still hinting at a dryer August and Autumn. The short range models have correctly modeled an unsettled scene since the middle of June and there is no sign of any break in this pattern from the shorter range models.

Well, we just have to hope July was a blip. Hopefully the ec46 is on to something for the second week of August, that it's not just a nw/se split regarding settled weather.

scouserstation

Indeed it's not a pretty picture being painted for the end of July but it's still a long way out and the models have been wrong several times already this summer, fingers crossed, there's still a chance we could get some prolonged dry settled weather over the next 3 - 4 weeks

BIMMERAG

scouserstation wrote: »

Indeed it's not a pretty picture being painted for the end of July but it's still a long way out and the models have been wrong several times already this summer, fingers crossed, there's still a chance we could get some prolonged dry settled weather over the next 3 - 4 weeks

How is it that when the long term models are signalling poor weather they are rarely wrong and when they are signalling an improvement or "summer weather" they are rarely right? Is it because bad weather is easier to predict?

scouserstation

BIMMERAG wrote: »

How is it that when the long term models are signalling poor weather they are rarely wrong and when they are signalling an improvement or "summer weather" they are rarely right? Is it because bad weather is easier to predict?

Not necessarily, I recall on several occasions during summer 2018 when unsettled weather was predicted and it never materialised, I think what happens is the models see a pattern happening across the Pacific and the Atlantic and they try predict how that will effect the jet stream, it just so happens we are located in the wrong location and are wide open to the effects of the jet stream movement ie. an unpredictable pattern

John O.Groats

Going on previous year`s weather patterns August will likely be another write off as far as any prolonged settled spell of weather is concerned. September may possibly bring something better.

Sammy2012

What's the weather currently looking like for th4 August Bank holiday weekend. We have our staycation planned for then and would like to know if is it looking wet at the moment? Cool and dry suits me fine but constant rain will make me rethink.

Gonzo

Sammy2012 wrote: »

What's the weather currently looking like for th4 August Bank holiday weekend. We have our staycation planned for then and would like to know if is it looking wet at the moment? Cool and dry suits me fine but constant rain will make me rethink.

The August bank holiday weekend is looking more of the same, rain or showers with unsettled conditions, but that's a long way off at the very extended range of FI and may change before then.

Gonzo

After a few dry and bright days big changes are on the way to something much more unsettled. It is looking particularly wet and cool next week and we may end July on a very wet note.

Start of August looks more of the same, staying on the wet and cool side with no real sign of any warmth or dry spells for the foreseeable future. Temperatures between 1 and 2 degree's below average for the next 7 to 10 days. We may see things drying out a bit as we head into the 1st week of August, but still looks remaining mixed with temperatures remaining below average into the 1st and possibly second week of August.

Latest GFS ensembles look generally cool and wet with no shortage of rainfall.



Charts generally look unsettled most days including the bank holiday weekend.



Plenty of rain over the next 7 days with up to 60mm in places with all areas of the country seeing bands of rain at times and frequent showers, looks a bit dryer towards the south with less in the way of rainfall compared to the northern half of the country.



Temperatures generally between 12 and 20C over the next 14 days with best chance of high teens across the south and east during dry and sunny interludes.

ECM keeps it cool and unsettled too particularly the final week of July into the first few days of August.





It's not just Ireland that will have cool and unsettled weather, this cool and unsettled remains for the UK, northern Germany and much of Scandinavia as well.

Meteorite58

The mixed bag and cooler than average theme continues from the 12Z ECM, possibly a few decent enough days in there but rain never far away. The Low pressure at the end of the run if it tracked like that could produce heavy thundery rain coming in from the SW , but of course that is an age away or may never happen being so far out .

Temperatures look like being in the mid to high teens maybe touching 20 ish range past +120hrs, best in the S, SE and E it would seem at this stage.

Seems like a long time since we had some notable weather event to follow.

scouserstation

Looking at the charts we have an unsettled weekend in store before a possible improvement during next week, jet stream forecast showing a weak 2-3 day ridge allowing high pressure across the south of the country before a low system moves in towards the bank holiday weekend

pauldry

Yeah nothing great but even though its mixed the good thing about mixed is there are also days that are nice. Like last Sunday was lovely and sunny and there will probably some of those days where they forecast isolated showers that will be dry throughout. I can live with that. What I cant live with is what the first 15 days of July gave us. Mist rain darkness wind and 12 to 14c.

At least temperatures these days are 17 or 18c even in the mucky Northwest.