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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-06-2020 11:51am
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

    Thanks



    Summer 2020 is finally here and this is where we like a look a bit further ahead and tease out what is in store for us over the course of 14 days. As always these charts become more unreliable the closer we get to +360 hours. Will the warm and sunny conditions always be 10 days away as we chase the heat throughout the summer? only time will tell.

    The following week will be largely dominated by a cool plunge of northerlies, these will affect the majority of Ireland, UK and many parts of western Europe.

    This upcoming spell of cool weather looks like it's going to be a stubborn one to shift as it lasts well into the first two weeks of June and could potentially also be at play beyond the extended range of FI.

    Monday the 8th of June, temperatures begin to slowly recover slightly as we lose the northerly influence as least for now. Temperatures getting back into the mid to high teens and may reach 20C in a few midland areas.

    GFSOPEU06_177_1.png

    The Azores high is still anchored out in the Atlantic with cooler air still digging at our heels, the warmer and dryer conditions out to our west doesn't really get here. There may still be some light showers or spells of rain around this time as we struggle to gain influence from the Azores high.

    Wednesday 10th of June continues with a cool theme and it may become more unsettled with bands of rain or showers crossing the country from the north.

    GFSOPEU06_225_1.png

    GFSOPUK06_222_4.png

    Still showery as we head towards Friday 12th of June with average temperatures. None of the showers or bands of rain look heavy at this stage. They are nowhere nearly as heavy as the usual low pressures that we frequently get from the Atlantic, but they may enough to spoil the idea of us having any settled weather.

    The GFS update seems to be stuck at +252 hours so will update again later.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Saturday 13th of June see's a change as we begin to extend the ridge back over us, allowing warmer and more settled conditions to resume.

    GFSOPEU06_288_1.png

    We finish on Wednesday 17th of June and Summer is back in control as we draw in warm easterlies from a very warm continent.

    GFSOPEU06_360_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_384_2.png

    It looks a bit unstable just to our south, potential for some thundery showers perhaps in southern areas. Over the next week we will see if this return to warm and dry conditions by mid June is something more prolonged or just a brief flirt with warmth. The one thing we don't want to see is the Atlantic getting charged up for another season!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    There are more signs that this very prolonged dry spell is coming to an end in about a week's time. Over the next week we will have some rain in the form of showers, nothing too heavy.

    The ECM brings the cold northerly same as the GFS but then starts moving the jetstream north-west to south-east and is opening up the gates to some rather heavy rainfall. The ECM becomes more unsettled and is generally very cool from Wednesday to the end of it's run.

    A cold weekend to come with -5C uppers just off the north coast knocking on our door. Those cold northerly winds are really going to bite on Sunday.

    ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

    ECMOPEU12_144_34.png

    From Monday the 8th we get slightly milder but we bring back the westerlies with showers.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

    We finish on the 11th of June with a big area of low pressure ready to topple in over us with very chilly north-west winds originating from Greenland.

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    ECMOPEU12_240_34.png

    If the ECM verifies we really are heading into a chilly first half of June, this could give last year's cold June a run for it's money.

    ECM brings rain everyday from the 7th of June:

    ECMWF_144_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    ECMWF_210_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    ECMWF_240_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Those 3 rainfall charts that I posted at the bottom of the above post have already updated and are showing much less rainfall then when I posted them....


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    tonight's GFS still continuing with the warming trend from next week, it will take a while to get back to average temperatures but then the warming just keeps on going right to the end of FI. A few of the runs are really switching on the heat towards the end of the run. This run is also a downgrade overall in terms of rainfall. Much of Europe becoming very warm or hot too.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-06-01&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    GFSOPEU18_336_2.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    We've had a fairly poor summer so far, it's been cool and unsettled much of the time since June 3rd with only a few days here and there of summer like conditions. The past 2 weeks have been particularly unseasonal and unsettled.

    It does appear we are seeing signs of an improving situation into next week and possibly beyond. Nothing all that warm on the horizon but at this stage any settled conditions we get will be most welcome regardless of the temperature.

    The ECM warms up a bit and settles down from this weekend. By next Thursday we are dragging in some fairly warm temperatures:

    ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

    ECMOPUK00_216_2.png

    In the middle of July uppers of +10C to +12C should be enough to get some places of mid 20's or possibly slightly higher in decent spells of sunshine.

    The models are in a bit of a disagreement about next week, while the ECM looks like bringing back summer from Sunday, the GEM isn't so keen on this, it does get the high pressure going this weekend, but it breaks down very quickly.

    The GEM breaks things down as early as Tuesday, only going with 1 to 2 settled days.

    GEMOPEU00_180_1.png

    GEM finishes with a very cool run by next Friday:
    GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

    Hopefully the GEM is not right about this, however they have been a decent model this summer and have been proven right more often than the GFS over the past few weeks.

    The GFS keeps us mostly settled next week with high pressure near usl but there still may be a chance of some showers at times. GFS also a cooler run than the ECM with temperatures generally high teens to maybe low 20's in a few places.

    GFS holds the high pressure till about next Thursday:

    GFSOPEU06_234_1.png

    By next weekend the GFS has us back into a mixed scene with a flat westerly and the azores ridge just to our south.

    GFSOPEU06_300_1.png

    Out of the above the ECM would be my preferred choice with higher temperatures and generally more settled. The GEM is the coolest and most unsettled option where the settled conditions never really get a chance. The GFS shows an improving scene with some dry and settled days next week but not exciting either for those who want a prolonged and uninterrupted warm and dry spell.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    Gonzo.. Monday could be the day that breaks my plans. Met Eireann are giving rain in the Midlands and also MT is giving rain.. Is this rain a cast iron certainty.. Appreciate your follow up..


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    eon1208 wrote: »
    Gonzo.. Monday could be the day that breaks my plans. Met Eireann are giving rain in the Midlands and also MT is giving rain.. Is this rain a cast iron certainty.. Appreciate your follow up..

    high pressure is trying to get going from Saturday but there is the possibility that rain or showers could happen on Monday and into Tuesday from a low that could move down through the country before high pressure tries to resume again. Should know over the weekend if this will happen or not.

    gfs-0-126.png?6

    132-574UK.GIF?08-6


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    Gonzo... Is that chart saying 0.5mm per hour over 6 hours.. 3mm total aporox


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    eon1208 wrote: »
    Gonzo... Is that chart saying 0.5mm per hour over 6 hours.. 3mm total aporox

    that chart is only a basic guide, rain fall looks light enough for Monday and not a deluge. Those charts are often well off the mark to what happens in reality, Monday is still 5 days away so it remains to be seen if we will even have rain on Monday.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    next week's return to high pressure is pretty much a bust at this stage. We try to get a ridge this weekend but it appears as if it's not going to last more than a couple of hours to maybe 1 day. The Azores is really trying to get going in our direction but the jet stream with it's conveyor belt of lows is constantly spoiling things for us and getting in the way.

    As is the way all summer we are so close to drawing in warmer and dryer conditions but the jet-stream is just refusing to get out of the way or move northwards. At this stage a return to a dryer and warmer period could be a bit like the carrot on a stick affect we get in the winter where the cold and snow is always 10 days away and eventually we run out of winter.

    ECM is unsettled right to the end of it's run:

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    UKMO keeps us with the flat westerly for next week:

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    GEM is generally unsettled next week too.

    GEMOPEU12_228_1.png

    GFS is now very unsettled for next week with only hints of high pressure returning around the 21st of July but even that looks flimsy.

    GFS estimating 30 to 70mm of rain to fall over the coming week to 10 days. Depending on tracking of low pressures this could either upgrade or downgrade.

    240-777UK.GIF?08-12

    The wait for dry and settled weather goes on.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    Thats literally not good. Keep us posted later today for updates Gonzo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    The Jet Stream cannot go North as there is a big wedge of High Pressure blocking up there. So we will be in this pattern until that changes which seems likely after about July 20th


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,617 ✭✭✭ sparrowcar


    eon1208 wrote: »
    Thats literally not good. Keep us posted later today for updates Gonzo.

    If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

    Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭ newholland mad


    sparrowcar wrote: »
    If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

    Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.

    Farmer here also and what I do is very weather dependent and I'd rarely bother looking at met eireann, I find the information here much more accurate and detailed, so personally I'm very appreciative of the guys help here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,617 ✭✭✭ sparrowcar


    Farmer here also and what I do is very weather dependent and I'd rarely bother looking at met eireann, I find the information here much more accurate and detailed, so personally I'm very appreciative of the guys help here.

    No doubt and I agree about the excellent accuracy in here.
    Just the expectation needs to be kept in check, especially when the previous poster is asking to be kept up to date as if its his personal weather service. The regular experts here have full time jobs and Iives going on too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes definitely agree.

    Im no farmer and though I forecast here I mainly just comment. Gonzo, MTC and those guys much much better than Met Eireann who dont even get tomorrow right in my location.

    The only reason I use Met Eireann is for current temperatures, yesterdays weather and climate data. Any forecasts are too generalised.

    e.g Mist and drizzle almost anywhere

    On boards Gonzo gives you the rain measurement in mm in the charts for the next week!


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    sparrowcar wrote: »
    If I was you I would stick to Met Eireann forecasts for a decision on your hay. The guys on here are not full time and technically thry are amateur forecasters. Although some are brilliant forecasters (in my opinion) they also have other lives away from this forum. You can't expect them keep you posted as you put it, especially as its your livelihood.

    Hopefully you get the window you're looking for to get the hay in.
    I'm in a full time job with a very small hobby on the side that costs money as opposed to making money. I am interested in the technical aspects of the forecasts, hence the questions I sometimes ask. You shouldn't assume there is some money making agenda behind the expectation of updates as you put it. Everyone has their own reasons behind checking the weather. Be it a family birthday, a barbecue, a holiday or a field of hay for that matter. This is a superb thread for a multitude of reasons.. I prefer it to Met Eireann. So I base my judgements here as much as the Met.


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    sparrowcar wrote: »
    No doubt and I agree about the excellent accuracy in here.
    Just the expectation needs to be kept in check, especially when the previous poster is asking to be kept up to date as if its his personal weather service. The regular experts here have full time jobs and Iives going on too.
    I apologise if it sounded like that. There is not even an iota of expectation on my part. I was surprised to see your comment after an intense mornings work. This site is nobody's personal weather service. How you can even think that, the mind boggles.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,617 ✭✭✭ sparrowcar


    eon1208 wrote: »
    I apologise if it sounded like that. There is not even an iota of expectation on my part. I was surprised to see your comment after an intense mornings work. This site is nobody's personal weather service. How you can even think that, the mind boggles.

    How I came to that thought was when you post comments like "keep us posted Gonzo" as you have done a few times now it suggests you have an expectation of Gonzo. The rest of us are happy to wait for Gonzo to post in his own time.

    Anyway waaay off topic now. Prob just a misunderstanding. Apologies for any assumptions on my behalf.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Thanks guys, it's great to know that all our weather updates and posts are appreciated. The main reason we all put time into posting about the weather and looking into the crystal ball of fantasy island is because we love to talk about the weather, it is interesting and challenging to try and predict it at the best of times. We are not always right, and sometimes we are even guided by incorrect or poorly performing models but as ever the weather is always a learning process due to how unpredictable it can become.

    Latest updates I have today are a little bit more promising than what we've seen over the past 2 to 3 weeks. We are now beginning to see a slowly improving situation with our weather, however it does not look like it will completely settle down any time soon, more of an improving signal from atrocious conditions to something approaching normal Irish summer weather. This improving scene may only last a week before we go back to a very unsettled scene once again.

    For now we have seen an end to the daily 12+ hour rain events which have frequently brought very wet conditions, particularly to some northern, north-western and eastern areas since the last week of June and the first week of July.

    This weekend will be much dryer than of late and temperatures will improve a bit too. A ridge from the Azores tries to get going over Ireland this weekend on Saturday and into Sunday.

    Temperatures generally 16 to 21C away from the north-west where it will remain slightly cooler with showery bits of rain or drizzle at times over the weekend, temperatures there about 13 or 14C but rain shouldn't be anywhere nearly as heavy as recent times.

    UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

    Monday could be quite warm in the east and south with temperatures up to 21 or 22C in places, particularly if there are decent spells of sunshine. It will be cooler and more cloudy towards the west and north with showery rain at times as low pressure from the north-west introduces much fresher conditions there.

    midweek by Tuesday we may start to lose influence from that azores ridge and it begins to push back into the middle of the Atlantic and the flat westerly continues over us with a cool and possibly showery airflow. Over the next few days it will remain cool with showery outbreaks of rain particularly in western and northern areas with the south and east staying dryer and warmer generally, but showers can break out just about anywhere. Temperatures midweek generally in the 14 to 18C range with perhaps low 20's still possible in some eastern and southern areas if there are decent sunny breaks, otherwise high teens most likely there.

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    Next Weekend: By next weekend there is a trend towards things turning much more unsettled once again with proper northern blocking likely to get going over Greenland. This may start to send a series of low pressures or dartboard lows our way from the very Northern parts of the Atlantic introducing possibly cooler and wetter conditions.

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

    Next week looks very unsettled and quite cool too with winds possibly going into the north and pulling down showery outbreaks of rain and temperatures back to the low to mid teens once again. The GFS looks particularly grim from next weekend with the jet stream heading back south again with plenty of unsettled and cool and autumnal conditions. However that is all a week away so fingers crossed the GFS is overplaying it.

    GFSOPEU12_252_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_336_1.png

    Overall the next week is an improvement with some light showery rain possible in the west and north at times and dryer elsewhere. Temperatures should get to the high teens at times over the next week, maybe touching 20C or 21C in spells of sunshine. It won't be completely dry as showers or drizzly rain can happen anywhere, but gone are the day long deluges of recent weeks. The next week may be a good time to try and get some gardening done and the lawns cut to take advantage of any dry and sunny weather that gets going. This is not BBQ/garden beers weather, just average Irish summer weather.

    We do appear to go back to a cool and unsettled theme with plenty of rain from next weekend and into the following week. Depending on how aggressive the northern blocking becomes, it could provide us with a very cool and unsettled end of July and beginning to August, but for now that remains to be seen.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Mixed Irish summer weather indeed. From +120hrs now looking on the cooler than average side by the ECM 12Z, but could get some nice sunny bright days like today with low humidity. Good sleeping weather anyway :rolleyes:

    Warmest away from the NW, W and SW from +120hrs it would seem with a lot of NW'lys

    FI very unpredictable and unreliable recently, any promising charts have played out very average if not poorly in the end, only the unsettled weather predictions seem to materialize.

    End of this run looks better from the ECM but unsettled and cooler by the GFS.



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    Y1oTo5y.png

    ilZAE8v.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    even since I made this afternoon's post it's trending more unsettled and cooler. That recent ECM has now fallen in line with the very cool and unsettled GFS, not good at all.

    I think the highest temperature we have seen this July is 20C. The way this July is heading we will be lucky to see anywhere in the country reach 22 or 23C.

    The past 2 to 3 weeks have easily been the coldest temperature anomaly we've had since 1st of January 2020. Up to this month, the year has basically been warmer than average every month. July looks like it is already well on it's way to being a cooler or significantly cooler than average month. Temperatures in Dunsany are not far off 2C below the monthly average. If the outlook of the next 2 weeks verifies, we are going to need one hell of a scotching final week of July to turn that anomaly around.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    Why do we always have to see those beautiful yellows and oranges over Greenland in the middle of the feckin' Summer after getting nothing but PV sh!te all Winter, when they could have actually given us some epic winter spells? :D:D:D

    (By always, I really just mean this year and last year. But still. Feck's sake.)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,837 ✭✭✭ theoneeyedman


    And it's St Swithin's Day next Wednesday.... The summer is fvcked lads!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Dont write it off yet.

    July is just fvcked bar 24th which is my kids birthday and always seems hot


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,837 ✭✭✭ theoneeyedman


    pauldry wrote: »
    Dont write it off yet.

    July is just fvcked bar 24th which is my kids birthday and always seems hot

    Yea. My comment is obviously tongue in cheek, but wondering it there is in the opinion of the experts here any relationship between the old wives tale and actual science. I've read before that the jat stream patterns in mud July tend to stay in place through August into September, and I'm wondering if this is generally accurate in the experts opinion.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    alot of doom and gloom recently with the models. Lots of weather fans here and in the UK really getting fed up with this summer already.

    Just when we think we are now on track for a cold and wet continuation of July the GEM decides to have a laugh.

    The GEM has performed very well over the past 2 months, but i'm not so sure they are right about this forecast as it is a total and utter flip. The GEM has had weeks of unsettled runs and now they have this all of a sudden.

    Like all other models the GEM brings in a slight ridge this weekend and early next week with temperatures close enough to normal, but from Wednesday the GEM now continues to bring in that Azores and temperatures begin to lift up and take off.

    GEMOPEU12_120_1.png

    by next weekend the GEM brings +14 to +17 uppers across Ireland. Not sure what to make of this as of right now we can't even get 17C on the ground!

    Somehow if this GEM manages to verify temperatures could get close to 28C in places next weekend with close to 30C possible somewhere like Oak Park or Shannon.... I think i'll need to build an extension to hide the pinch of salt.

    GEMOPUK12_192_5.png

    GEMOPUK12_240_5.png

    The GFS brings in some warmth as well for next weekend but kills it off by Monday.

    GFSOPUK12_219_5.png

    Are the models laughing at us or are the weather Gods beginning to feel a bit sorry for us?

    Let's see what the ECM has in store for us as it is beginning to roll out now....


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    ECM in agreement with ICON and UKMO (GEM to some extent too although goes off with a push of warmth highlighted by Gonzo above) for quite an area of high pressure to ascend from Wednesday next. This seemed to be the trend for this exact timeframe around last weekend before ECM and GFS started to go more unsettled then.

    I think this is again the result of tropical cyclones causing uncertainty as per usual with the risk of getting caught in the jet stream. Lot more positives this evening if it's warm and dry weather you seek but we're still talking at least 5 days away and with the uncertainty recently, we shall see how it goes.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big flip flop again. If we see this for two more runs then I will kinda believe it could happen.


    Far dryer outlook with the latest charts, good enough temperatures and getting quite warm into the mid 20's at the end of the run but we have seen that before haven't we :pac:

    Who knows, things might be about to change.



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    o6wPvwE.jpg?1


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I still think the warmer conditions from Wednesday, particularly next weekend is still on a knife edge. The GEM has backed off yesterday's very hot run however it still get's the high here but just more sensible temperatures. The GFS does get it very warm next weekend then it quickly cools down from Sunday evening or Monday afternoon.

    It wouldn't take much of an adjustment to drag that low pressure between us and Iceland a bit closer and we would end up with much cooler and unsettled conditions. I think this one will have a few downgrades and upgrades before we know for sure what will happen after Wednesday, but fingers crossed this works out in our favour and we get some real heat, even if it's just for 1 or 2 days.

    At least the next week is guaranteed to be significantly dryer than the week just gone, particularly eastern areas can now start to dry out after over a week of deluges.


This discussion has been closed.
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