No evidence that asymptomatic positive cases are infectious. MOD NOTE post 55

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 10:36pm #1

Results of the Chinese study where they Tested 10 million people, it appears to show asymptomatic people are not a threat like previous smaller studies.
"There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases"
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

This would really bring into question why healthy people should be subject to restrictions or mandates.

froog · 21-11-2020 10:43pm

so you think no restrictions at all would work? given everything we've seen over the last 8 months?

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 10:45pm

froog wrote: »

so you think no restrictions at all would work? given everything we've seen over the last 8 months?

Restrictions on symptomatic people only, yes I think it should be looked at.
There is no mask mandate in Wuhan, night clubs are open, healthy people are allowed get on with life.

odyssey06 · 21-11-2020 10:54pm

According to CDC asymptomatic and presymptomatic account for majority of transmissions
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic-website-wellness/index.html

People are spreading the virus when they have no idea they are infected.

Guy:Incognito · 21-11-2020 10:59pm

"China are big giant liars"

"until they release the data I like"

21-11-2020 11:03pm

This doesn't make a lick of scientific sense.

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 11:03pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

According to CDC asymptomatic and presymptomatic account for majority of transmissions
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic-website-wellness/index.html

People are spreading the virus when they have no idea they are infected.

That's a complete contradiction to the study of 10 million people in China.
One of them is incorrect, it's worth remembering one isn't trying to bring in lockdowns or force people to wear masks. We've seen enough times how science evolves to suit a narrative.

Have we any data here to say how many asymptomatic people go on to spread and make the people they infect symptomatic? I doubt they'd tell us even if they did know.

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 11:08pm

Deleted User wrote: »

This doesn't make a lick of scientific sense.

Isn't that the point though, we think we know the science, we already know this was floating around in September last year yet professor Nolan's charting refuses to take that into account when modelling, now we have results from probably the biggest mass testing ever and it contradicts the science were following.

odyssey06 · 21-11-2020 11:09pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

That's a complete contradiction to the study of 10 million people in China.
One of them is incorrect, it's worth remembering one isn't trying to bring in lockdowns or force people to wear masks. We've seen enough times how science evolves to suit a narrative.
Have we any data here to say how many asymptomatic people go on to spread and make the people they infect symptomatic? I doubt they'd tell us even if they did know.

China had lockdowns.
I have no idea what you on about.

People without symptoms can be infectious.
I dont know the split of asymptomatic v presymptomatic but to say healthy people cant spread this disease is wrong.

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 11:11pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

People without symptoms can be infectious.
I dont know the split of asymptomatic v presymptomatic but to say healthy people cant spread this disease is wrong.

Ah no to say healthy people can spread the virus is wrong.

Away With The Fairies · 21-11-2020 11:18pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

According to CDC asymptomatic and presymptomatic account for majority of transmissions
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic-website-wellness/index.html

People are spreading the virus when they have no idea they are infected.

Ryan turbidy thought he had a cold. But people are looking out for coughing, fever, breathing difficulties, lost sense and smell. Will they ever add feeling like a cold as a symptom?

odyssey06 · 21-11-2020 11:22pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Ah no to say healthy people can spread the virus is wrong.

You cant tell the difference between someone who appears healthy who is presymptomatic v who will remain asymptomatic.
They appear healthy.
They can spread the virus.

As to whether those that remain asymptomatic can spread the virus, need to see more studies. Honestly something is a bit iffy about the study linked that I dont know how much weight to afford it.
Maybe it is just badly worded.
Maybe so many people in Wuhan were exposed to the virus in first wave there was no one left to infect by the 300 asymptomatics found in this phase.

But the article actually says:
Public health measures for the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic, including wearing masks, keeping safe social distancing in Wuhan should be sustained.

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 11:23pm

I'd consider someone with cold symptoms a threat, they should not be out and about at the moment.

kippy · 21-11-2020 11:24pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Results of the Chinese study where they Tested 10 million people, it appears to show asymptomatic people are not a threat like previous smaller studies.
"There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases"
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

This would really bring into question why healthy people should be subject to restrictions or mandates.

I suppose better safe than sorry until peer revie ed evidence is available. No such studies were available in march, April may etc.

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 11:34pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

You cant tell the difference between someone who appears healthy who is presymptomatic v who will remain asymptomatic.
They appear healthy.
They can spread the virus.

As to whether those that remain asymptomatic can spread the virus, need to see more studies. Honestly something is a bit iffy about the study linked that I dont know how much weight to afford it.
Maybe it is just badly worded.
Maybe so many people in Wuhan were exposed to the virus in first wave there was no one left to infect by the 300 asymptomatics found in this phase.

You've a lot of maybe and assumption thrown in there to discredit what's been published. If it's true it makes a lot of your hardend beliefs wrong. It would take some serious mental gymnastics for you to accept it at face value.

Healthy people do not appear to be the threat you precieve them to be.
Taking your assumption it went through the whole of Whuhan so only 300 positives remained puts the whole pandemic in the hoax category and Sweden was wrong for not continuing to let it rip.

odyssey06 · 21-11-2020 11:40pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You've a lot of maybe and assumption thrown in there to discredit what's been published. If it's true it makes a lot of your hardend beliefs wrong. It would take some serious mental gymnastics for you to accept it at face value.
Healthy people do not appear to be the threat you precieve them to be.
Taking your assumption it went through the whole of Whuhan so only 300 positives remained puts the whole pandemic in the hoax category and Sweden was wrong for not continuing to let it rip.

Again no idea what you are on about with some of the remarks there.

I dont believe any info on cases or deaths from Wuhan for the early wave of the pandemic.

Swedens reporting is so obtuse it is unreliable.

You havent explained how you know who is 'healthy'. Who is asymptomatic v presymptomatic.
So I see zero reason to alter any of the current measures.

GT89 · 21-11-2020 11:43pm

Anyone with half a brain cell could work out that. I've never heard anymore nonsense in my life it's obivous you can't spread something you don't have. The masks are useless studies have shown that dust can penetrate a surgical mask and the virus is 400 times smaller so obivously it can get through a bog standard cloth or surgical mask.

The reason why cases and deaths were high in March/April was because hospitals and nursing homes couldn't and are still struggling to get their sh1t together. We're basically all being treated as criminals because of the HSEs incompetence.

odyssey06 · 21-11-2020 11:48pm

GT89 wrote: »

Anyone with half a brain cell could work out that. I've never heard anymore nonsense in my life it's obivous you can't spread something you don't have. The masks are useless studies have shown that dust can penetrate a surgical mask and the virus is 400 times smaller so obivously it can get through a bog standard cloth or surgical mask.

The reason why cases and deaths were high in March/April was because hospitals and nursing homes couldn't and are still struggling to get their sh1t together. We're basically all being treated as criminals because of the HSEs incompetence.

Asymptomatic spread is an established concept in infectious diseases.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymptomatic_carrier

What people with half a brain cell can work out is often the wrong answer.

I can rebut the garbage about masks on the masks thread... in fact it has already been rebutted and thoroughly discredited.

Guy:Incognito · 21-11-2020 11:49pm

GT89 wrote: »

Anyone with half a brain cell could work out that. I've never heard anymore nonsense in my life it's obivous you can't spread something you don't have. The masks are useless studies have shown that dust can penetrate a surgical mask and the virus is 400 times smaller so obivously it can get through a bog standard cloth or surgical mask.

The reason why cases and deaths were high in March/April was because hospitals and nursing homes couldn't and are still struggling to get their sh1t together. We're basically all being treated as criminals because of the HSEs incompetence.

Can masks stop bits of saliva flying out of your mouth?

And as a follow up, do you have any issue with other peoples spit going in your mouth/eyes/nose and do you think it can be spread from that happening?

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 11:53pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

So I see zero reason to alter any of the current measures.

I don't expect you to change your mind, your 100% correct in your head and nothing is going to change that.

Some people will see that report as good news and look for the positives.

We have a severe lack of data in this country when it comes to pre/asympto/sympto case tracing.
I'm not sure how NPHET can ever row back and admit they were wrong. Hiding the data protects their narrative.

kippy · 21-11-2020 11:54pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I don't expect you to change your mind, your 100% correct in your head and nothing is going to change that.

Some people will see that report as good news and look for the positives.

We have a severe lack of data in this country when it comes to pre/asympto/sympto case tracing.
I'm not sure how NPHET can ever row back and admit they were wrong. Hiding the data protects their narrative.

There's a severe lack of data on this globally.....and still a lot of unknowns about the virus.

All of these conspiracy theories about NPHET wanting to keep the country in indefinite lockdown.....why?

drunkmonkey · 21-11-2020 11:55pm

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Can masks stop bits of saliva flying out of your mouth?

And as a follow up, do you have any issue with other peoples spit going in your mouth/eyes/nose and do you think it can be spread from that happening?

When was the last time that actually happened to you? People do not go around spitting on each other.

GT89 · 21-11-2020 11:58pm

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Can masks stop bits of saliva flying out of your mouth?

And as a follow up, do you have any issue with other peoples spit going in your mouth/eyes/nose and do you think it can be spread from that happening?

It can still get through the mask. If dust can get through a mask so can droplets. The only mask that offers protection is an n95.

I don't really care if someone coughs or sneezes in my face unlike most I'm not living in fear of a virus that's no worse than the flu.

Thierry12 · 21-11-2020 11:59pm

GT89 wrote: »

Anyone with half a brain cell could work out that. I've never heard anymore nonsense in my life it's obivous you can't spread something you don't have.

The crazy thing is no challenge trials have ever been done to prove how it spreads

Vaccines launching in 3 weeks worldwide and no pharma company has infected people deliberately to see do they even work.

A placebo vs vaccine trial where people go about there business for 3 months unsupervised.

Only way to know what your dealing with it is put people in a clinical setting, locked in and watch them 24/7, put Covid in the air and see what happens

China is the only country in the world that would do trials like that and as such if they say Covid doesn't spread asymptomatic I believe them, they've probably done those trials in secret ffs ;-)

They are the worlds number one super power

Covid has proved they are the Alpha

GT89 · 22-11-2020 12:00am

kippy wrote: »

There's a severe lack of data on this globally.....and still a lot of unknowns about the virus.

All of these conspiracy theories about NPHET wanting to keep the country in indefinite lockdown.....why?

If there are so many unknowns about the virus how can there be vaccine?

Stark · 22-11-2020 12:00am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

When was the last time that actually happened to you? People do not go around spitting on each other.

How do you think the saying "say it, don't spray it" originated?

For that matter, ever sat in the first couple of rows when watching a play?

GT89 · 22-11-2020 12:03am

Stark wrote: »

How do you think the saying "say it, don't spray it" originated?

For that matter, ever sat in the first couple of rows when watching a play?

Most people know to sneeze into their elbow or a tissue when they sneeze. There's zero need to wear masks.

kippy · 22-11-2020 12:09am

GT89 wrote: »

If there are so many unknowns about the virus how can there be vaccine?

The vaccine does one thing and one thing only.

We don't know where this virus came from, where patient 0 was, how long it has been active, why some people react worse than others, what, if any, issues are there a few months/years down the line from getting the virus.

Tpcl20 · 22-11-2020 12:11am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Isn't that the point though, we think we know the science, we already know this was floating around in September last year yet professor Nolan's charting refuses to take that into account when modelling, now we have results from probably the biggest mass testing ever and it contradicts the science were following.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/health-experts-favour-tighter-covid-restrictions-the-politicians-less-1.4415096

There is also a suspicion in Government that the team is not sharing all the data it has. There are many reasons for its suspicion – not least the fact that the team was insisting on a lockdown when the numbers were just at their peak. Sharp-eared Government officials heard RTɒs George Lee – a journalist with a special insight into, and affinity for, the team’s thinking, it might fairly be said – say that “Nphet have far more numbers than what is published”.

In a not unrelated development, the Department of the Taoiseach has commissioned its own data marshalling operation.

Consultants EY have been drafted in to crunch the data in order to get a clearer picture of exactly where infections are occurring. The idea is, according to sources familiar with the brief, so that commercial areas shut down but posing little risk of spreading infections can be allowed to open, and stay open.

I find it incredibly unsettling that this news about the government hiring people to extrapolate data from NPHET isn't front-page material, that it's just thrown in as an afterthought.

GT89 · 22-11-2020 12:17am

kippy wrote: »

The vaccine does one thing and one thing only.

We don't know where this virus came from, where patient 0 was, how long it has been active, why some people react worse than others, what, if any, issues are there a few months/years down the line from getting the virus.

Unhealthy people react worse to the virus than the healthy people that's well known. The long term effects is more scaremongering nonsense.

odyssey06 · 22-11-2020 12:19am

GT89 wrote: »

Most people know to sneeze into their elbow or a tissue when they sneeze. There's zero need to wear masks.

Apparently masks dont stop the droplets.
But sneezing into your elbow does...

Yeah. Right.
Your nonsense about masks has been discredited and rebutted already on the proper thread.

Pretzill · 22-11-2020 12:22am

Of course this all begs the question...

Why hasn't this OP been permabanned - they are constantly spouting unfounded tripe around the coronavirus. And now they're starting threads about it.

We are in a pandemic it's ****e enough without this absolute ****.

22-11-2020 12:24am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

"China are big giant liars"

"until they release the data I like"

HAHA, start of the year everybody hated them.

This report is interesting. Would nice to see some replication. If true the economic restrictions were unnecessary.

22-11-2020 12:25am

Pretzill wrote: »

Of course this all begs the question...

Why hasn't this OP been permabanned - they are constantly spouting unfounded tripe around the coronavirus. And now they're starting threads about it.

We are in a pandemic it's ****e enough without this absolute ****.

Begs the question isnt what you think it is.

As for whether he should be banned. He might well be wrong, in which case argue against him.

Necro · 22-11-2020 12:25am

Mod:

Mask talk goes in the mask thread, keep to the topic at hand please.

kippy · 22-11-2020 12:26am

GT89 wrote: »

Unhealthy people react worse to the virus than the healthy people that's well known. The long term effects is more scaremongering nonsense.

You've absolutely nothing to base those assumptions on....

Thierry12 · 22-11-2020 12:28am

Tpcl20 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/health-experts-favour-tighter-covid-restrictions-the-politicians-less-1.4415096

I find it incredibly unsettling that this news about the government hiring people to extrapolate data from NPHET isn't front-page material, that it's just thrown in as an afterthought.

EY

As in Ernst & Young?

Dealt with them before for auditing, brutal crowd

If NPHET are hiding data, they'll find it

Gonna get interesting

ShineOn7 · 22-11-2020 12:31am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Results of the Chinese study where they Tested 10 million people, it appears to show asymptomatic people are not a threat like previous smaller studies.
"There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases"
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

This would really bring into question why healthy people should be subject to restrictions or mandates.

I'm not sure what's more ludicrous:

- The agenda you constantly push on here that this isn't serious

- Or the fact you're using a Chinese study

GT89 · 22-11-2020 12:31am

kippy wrote: »

You've absolutely nothing to base those assumptions on....

Fat people (unhealthy) are more likely to end up in ICU
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/obesity-linked-to-hospitalisation-and-icus-for-covid-19-patients-1.4361841

Oafley Jones · 22-11-2020 12:31am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I don't expect you to change your mind, your 100% correct in your head and nothing is going to change that.

You of course, don’t see the irony of this. You’ve countless threads & comments on this site where you go off on journeys of exploration of alternative realities with your guiding light of confirmation bias. Not having a go, but your ability to parse information and distinguish between fact and obvious BS seems completely broken.

22-11-2020 12:32am

GT89 wrote: »

Most people know to sneeze into their elbow or a tissue when they sneeze. There's zero need to wear masks.

GT89 wrote: »

Unhealthy people react worse to the virus than the healthy people that's well known. The long term effects is more scaremongering nonsense.

Which of your grifter sites gave you these pearls of wisdom?

22-11-2020 12:36am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm not sure what's more ludicrous:

- The agenda you constantly push on here that this isn't serious

- Or the fact you're using a Chinese study

To be fair it is published in Nature.

drunkmonkey · 22-11-2020 12:37am

Tpcl20 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/health-experts-favour-tighter-covid-restrictions-the-politicians-less-1.4415096

I find it incredibly unsettling that this news about the government hiring people to extrapolate data from NPHET isn't front-page material, that it's just thrown in as an afterthought.

The Government really have screwed up royally handing absolute power to NPHET and now they don't know how to take back control. Jesus they can't even get truthful data out of them, unbelievable.

NPHET need to be removed from the media spotlight at once and put behind closed doors.

Guy:Incognito · 22-11-2020 12:38am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

When was the last time that actually happened to you? People do not go around spitting on each other.

https://youtu.be/gZ66wJFD3bs

Skip to the bit where he's showing whats coming out when he's just saying numbers if you don't want to watch the whole lot.

kippy · 22-11-2020 12:43am

GT89 wrote: »

Fat people (unhealthy) are more likely to end up in ICU
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/obesity-linked-to-hospitalisation-and-icus-for-covid-19-patients-1.4361841

So you have nothing to base those assumptions on.
There are plenty 'healthy' people that have ended up in hospital or ICU.
Again, we know feck all about this virus...

drunkmonkey · 22-11-2020 12:45am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

https://youtu.be/gZ66wJFD3bs

Skip to the bit where he's showing whats coming out when he's just saying numbers if you don't want to watch the whole lot.

I'll try again with your lab based evidence as a reference point, when was the last time your face was that close to a stranger while taking to them?
That video is lab based not real world.

Your complete missing the point of the study.

Guy:Incognito · 22-11-2020 12:45am

GT89 wrote: »

.

I don't really care if someone coughs or sneezes in my face unlike most I'm not living in fear of a virus that's no worse than the flu.

:rolleyes:

"Every year, around the world, flu causes between 3 and 5 million cases of severe disease and up to 646, 000 deaths"

Covid deaths are over twice that. In about 10 months.

kippy · 22-11-2020 12:46am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

:rolleyes:

"Every year, around the world, flu causes between 3 and 5 million cases of severe disease and up to 646, 000 deaths"

Covid deaths are over twice that. In about 10 months.

In about ten months and using the greatest amount of mitigation measures the world has ever seen.....

22-11-2020 12:48am

Oafley Jones wrote: »

You of course, don’t see the irony of this. You’ve countless threads & comments on this site where you go off on journeys of exploration of alternative realities with your guiding light of confirmation bias. Not having a go, but your ability to parse information and distinguish between fact and obvious BS seems completely broken.

I'm still waiting for the supply chain to break down and the army on the street as they assured would be happening back in March according to the whatsapp group they are a member of.

I'm also still waiting to read about the shootout they were going to have with in their words fascist gardai.

Guy:Incognito · 22-11-2020 12:49am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'll try again with your lab based evidence as a reference point, when was the last time your face was that close to a stranger while taking to them?
That video is lab based not real world.

"Lab based". Its him in a room in his house with a light and a camera.

Why not just tell the truth and admit you're dismissing it because it doesn't suit you.

drunkmonkey · 22-11-2020 12:52am

Can we drop the mask talk as the mask or die brigade have hijacked the thread as it suggests their wrong in their fear of healthy people.

There's a lot more to it than that, we may need to rethink our approach to healthy people not just one one mandate but all the measures.

No evidence that asymptomatic positive cases are infectious. MOD NOTE post 55

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