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Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    highdef wrote: »
    ECM suggests it will be around or shortly after midnight. It's usually one of, if not the most accurate and reliable model so I would not discount it.

    No it doesn’t.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    09Z ICON Flash weather maps for 00Z to 12Z. Very light precip for most.

    538523.png

    538524.png

    538525.png

    538526.png

    538527.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    UKMO GAMET for northern UK, including NI. Giving isolated snow over land from 17Z.
    Met Situation Valid at 1800 UTC
    A GEN LIGHT W TO SW FLOW, BUT MOD TO STRONG IN FAR NW. TO W OF COLD FRONT, FLOW BECMG MOD TO STRONG NW.
    COLD FRONT LIES N6200 W00300 TO N5800 W00500 TO BARRA TO N5500 W01100, MOV SE AT 5-10KT.

    Freezing Level
    GEN 1000FT, BUT LCA 500FT CENTRAL SCOTLAND, AND 2000FT NEAR COLD FRONT.

    Weather Conditions
    Zone 1
    NW OF A LINE BELMULLET TO MALIN HEAD TO INVERNESS TO SHETLAND TO N6130 W00030, AND SE OF A LINE N5700 W01000 TO LEWIS TO N6100 W00500, BOTH LINES MOV SE AT 05-10KT:
    GEN 15KM IN OCNL RA, WITH 1-4/8ST 800-1200FT/1500 AND 5-7/8CUSC AND ACAS 2000FT/14000.
    WDSPR 6KM IN RA OR RADZ, WITH 3-6/8ST 600-800FT/1500 AND 7-8/8CUSC AND ACAS 1500FT/14000.
    OCNL 3000M IN RADZ OR HVY RA, OR RASN LAN, WITH 5-7/8ST 600FT/1500 AND 8/8CUSC AND ACAS 1500FT/16000.
    ISOL LAND SE FROM 17Z, 800M IN SN, WITH 5-7/8ST 500FT/1500 AND 8/8CUSC AND ACAS 1500FT/14000.
    WRNG: HILL FG. MOD ICE AND MOD TURB IN CLD. SN MON ABV 1000FT.

    Zone 2
    SE OF ZONE 1, AND NW OF A LINE CORK TO DUBLIN TO ISLE OF MAN TO ALNWICK TO N5630 E00000, MOV SE AT 05KT:
    GEN 30KM WITH 0-5/8CUSC 1500-3000FT/4000-6000.
    ISOL LAN, 200M IN FZFG, WITH 7/8ST SFC/500-1000.
    WRNG: HILL FG. MOD ICE AND MOD TURB IN CLD.

    Zone 3
    REST OF REGION:
    GEN 25KM WITH 3-6/8CUSC 2000FT/6000.
    ISOL 7KM IN SHRA OR SHRASN, WITH 0-4/8ST 800-1200FT/1500 AND 7/8CUSC 1500FT/8000-10000.
    ISOL, 2000M IN SHRASN, WITH 2-5/8ST 500-800FT/1500 AND 7/8CUSC 1500FT/8000-10000.
    ISOL LAN FM 18Z, 200M IN FZFG, WITH 5-7/8ST SFC/500-1000.
    WRNG: HILL FG. MOD ICE AND MOD TURB IN CLD. SN MON ABV 500FT.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    No it doesn’t.

    ECU4-24.GIF?06-12

    Upper air (1500m) does show a NNW breeze for your area which may bring in enough of a marine layer wedged between the cloudbase and ground level. If this marine layer melts the snow it would give you sleet, as the lower layer containing a SWly airflow wouldn't be deep enough to turn it back to snow again.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    No it doesn’t.

    On hirlam its n or ne by 2am
    But the map is a mess
    Its certainly sw before that


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    No it doesn’t.

    Correct, it doesn't now. Latest run has the switch to the northwest occurring later in the night, around 3/4am however that was not what was being shown when I posted earlier. Your temperatures remain marginal though, depending on your exact location which I don't know.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Just to add, here is a decent demonstration of different layers moving in different directions:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAoBWRjdGpU



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Latest Harmonie from Met Éireann seems to keep front pretty much in tact coming down over the country. It’s on their twitter page.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Anyway...

    It's unusual to see the Arpege also showing snow soundings, such as below for mid-Kildare at 6 am. It's a model that tends to have a warm bias when it comes to snow here.

    sondagearpegefr_291_462_24_0_1609939013.png

    arpegeuk-1-24-0_fai8.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    It would be lovely to wake up to a blanket of snow, and I think it would give the vast majority of the country a much needed lift and also keep travel to a minimum due to the nature of snow but hey mother nature will do what mother nature wants to do...... Who knows what will happen and that's half the fun of model watching ;)


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    kittyn wrote: »
    It would be lovely to wake up to a blanket of snow, and I think it would give the vast majority of the country a much needed lift and also keep travel to a minimum due to the nature of snow but hey mother nature will do what mother nature wants to do...... Who knows what will happen and that's half the fun of model watching ;)

    I've a hunch with the length this lockdown is going to go on for that there will be a national snow event before its lifted
    It all depends on where the pv and its daughters land
    But that's for another thread and at least a week away before we have an idea


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,381 ✭✭✭lolie


    Danno wrote: »
    In the snow starved years after 2001 until 2009 that was considered epic!

    Epic could be pushing it a bit Danno but anything thats falls is welcome here.
    I'm hoping tonight's snowfall is at least similar to early February 2009 when an inch or so fell from a front from the west.
    That December 2000 snowfall really set us up for disappointment that decade.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    lolie wrote: »
    Epic could be pushing it a bit Danno but anything thats falls is welcome here.
    I'm hoping tonight's snowfall is at least similar to early February 2009 when an inch or so fell from a front from the west.
    That December 2000 snowfall really set us up for disappointment that decade.

    Apart from a White Christmas 2004 that decade was a notable one for lack of snow and low temperatures in general.

    It was close to epic with teary-eyed, fully grown men doing a snow dance in 2008. :D :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    I've a hunch with the length this lockdown is going to go on for that there will be a national snow event before its lifted

    As in Jan or Feb 2023 say?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Mod Note On topic and less confrontational going forward please. Thank


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Danno wrote: »
    Apart from a White Christmas 2004 that decade was a notable one for lack of snow and low temperatures in general.

    It was close to epic with teary-eyed, fully grown men doing a snow dance in 2008. :D :pac:

    And I was in tears that we missed it. We went from 25 Dec 2004 to 10 Jan 2010 without a flake of snow down here, hence the references to the Cork Snow Shield to this day. As it happens we have done pretty well over the last 10 years, there are definitely worse places on the island for snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    And I was in tears that we missed it. We went from 25 Dec 2004 to 10 Jan 2010 without a flake of snow down here, hence the references to the Cork Snow Shield to this day. As it happens we have done pretty well over the last 10 years, there are definitely worse places on the island for snow.

    Cork snow shield appears worse than it is as so many of us to give out about the lack of sneachta. Hopefully see a dusting later.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Snow timings, based on the latest airport TAFs (vaild to midday tomorrow), which have just been amended around lunchtime.

    Dublin
    Light snow (1200-m vis.) from 4 - 8 am
    Chance of it continuing to 11 am

    Cork
    Light snow from 5 am - 12 pm

    Belfast Aldergrove
    Moderate snow (400-m vis.) from midnight - 6 am

    Shannon
    Chance of light snow (1400-m vis.) from 1 - 5 am, slight chance from 6 - 11 am.

    No TAF for Knock.

    Donegal, Sligo (to midnight)
    Sleet

    Derry Eglington (to 9 pm)
    Chance of moderate rain from 8 pm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It's beginning to cloud over now. It's a pity we could not have a freeze before the cloud rolled in.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    It's beginning to cloud over now. It's a pity we could not have a freeze before the cloud rolled in.

    Yeah that’s my main concern. It needs to be subzero.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 915 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Snow timings, based on the latest airport TAFs (vaild to midday tomorrow), which have just been amended around lunchtime.

    Dublin
    Light snow (1200-m vis.) from 4 - 8 am
    Chance of it continuing to 11 am

    Cork
    Light snow from 5 am - 12 pm

    Belfast Aldergrove
    Moderate snow (400-m vis.) from midnight - 6 am

    Shannon
    Chance of light snow (1400-m vis.) from 1 - 5 am, slight chance from 6 - 11 am.

    No TAF for Knock.

    Donegal, Sligo (to midnight)
    Sleet

    Derry Eglington (to 9 pm)
    Chance of moderate rain from 8 pm.

    Is a TAF generated for Kerry Airport?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    It’s starting to cloud over here now. It’s quite high cloud. I just hope it doesn’t hold the temps up. It is 2c now.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    It’s starting to cloud over here now. It’s quite high cloud. I just hope it doesn’t hold the temps up. It is 2c now.

    Whats your dewpoint and wet bulb?
    Current wind direction?
    Is here high ground upwind of you?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Temperatures already dropping here. 0.5°


  • Registered Users Posts: 32 polarhullar


    Snow timings, based on the latest airport TAFs (vaild to midday tomorrow), which have just been amended around lunchtime.

    Dublin
    Light snow (1200-m vis.) from 4 - 8 am
    Chance of it continuing to 11 am

    Cork
    Light snow from 5 am - 12 pm

    Belfast Aldergrove
    Moderate snow (400-m vis.) from midnight - 6 am

    Shannon
    Chance of light snow (1400-m vis.) from 1 - 5 am, slight chance from 6 - 11 am.

    No TAF for Knock.

    Donegal, Sligo (to midnight)
    Sleet

    Derry Eglington (to 9 pm)
    Chance of moderate rain from 8 pm.

    EGLINTON*


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    EGLINTON*

    Thanks. That's the second time you've corrected me. A slip of the finger again, said the bishop to the nun...


  • Registered Users Posts: 32 polarhullar


    Thanks. That's the second time you've corrected me. A slip of the finger again, said the bishop to the nun...

    My local shop also can't spell it right, drives me nuts :D

    Next time you'll get it haha


  • Registered Users Posts: 32 polarhullar


    Thanks. That's the second time you've corrected me. A slip of the finger again, said the bishop to the nun...

    My local shop also can't spell it right, drives me nuts :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Is a TAF generated for Kerry Airport?

    Yes, but only a 9-hour TAF. The current one runs to midnight. No precip by then.

    TAF EIKY 061400Z 0615/0624 VRB03KT 9999 FEW020=


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    My local shop also can't spell it right, drives me nuts :D

    Next time you'll get it haha

    *correctly :pac:


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Becoming quite anxious now. Had it been clear I would’ve been positive but we have a slow cloud coming in from the NW.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Thanks. That's the second time you've corrected me. A slip of the finger again, said the bishop to the nun...

    It’s actually city of Derry airport EGAE


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Becoming quite anxious now. Had it been clear I would’ve been positive but we have a slow cloud coming in from the NW.

    Relax, it's only weather.

    Derry EgliNTon ;) is reporting just a few clouds now.
    METAR EGAE 061450Z VRB02KT 9999 FEW010 02/01 Q1023=

    Magillgan is reporting 6 okta at 13,000 ft, though, with 0.2 hours of sunshine in the past hour.
    AAXX 06154 03907 45983 /2406 10016 20002 30225 40233 56020
    333 55302 20310 86/63
    555 7/096=


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    What is it with these fronts? They either come in earlier than forecasted or they have a band of cloud well ahead of them.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Relax, it's only weather.

    Derry EgliNTon ;) is reporting just a few clouds now.



    Magillgan is reporting 6 okta at 13,000 ft, though, with 0.2 hours of sunshine in the past hour.

    No there is cloud as East as Coleraine.


  • Registered Users Posts: 241 ✭✭kerrycork13


    Highest snow amounts will be across Ulster moderate falls for a time across, Donegal, Derry, Cavan, Tyrone, Fermanagh, Leitrim, Antrim and Sligo accumulating betweeb 2cm to 5cm possibly eastern parts of Galway and Mayo also.
    The above areas will sea a mix of sleet around the coasts.

    Elsewhere amounts will be much lower 1cm to 2cm but parts of Munster, much of Leinster southern and western Connacht will see very little or nothing at all.

    I'd imagine looking at the charts that my location is east kerry/north cork. 150 m asl should also see some snow. We usually do here. I'd expect 2-3 cms . Hopefully.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    It’s actually city of Derry airport EGAE

    Met Éireann call it
    (CITY OF DERRY AIRPORT/ EGLINTON)

    but I ain't typing out all that


  • Registered Users Posts: 32 polarhullar


    Relax, it's only weather.

    Derry EgliNTon ;) is reporting just a few clouds now.

    Magillgan is reporting 6 okta at 13,000 ft, though, with 0.2 hours of sunshine in the past hour.

    Completely cloudy over here in Eglinton now. Have watched the bank of cloud slowly move in all day from the west. Looking east can see clear blue skies.

    Got the car ready for a winter (hopefully snowy) camping tonight on Benevenagh.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    What is it with these fronts? They either come in earlier than forecasted or they have a band of cloud well ahead of them.

    There's a dissipating upper warm front ahead of this surface cold front.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    anim_ir.gif

    In terms of cloud cover for most of us in the midlands and east it should be fine as surface air temperatures will fall quickly after dark before the main outer cloud deck arrives anyway. I don't have any concerns there really.

    My only issue is the extent and rate of precipitation.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Whats your dewpoint and wet bulb?
    Current wind direction?
    Is here high ground upwind of you?

    Air temperature is 2.1c
    Dew point is 0.0c
    Wet bulb is 0.5c

    We will have to rely on cooling or evaporative cooling. I am not sure if the temperature will drop further.

    The wind is south easterly, calm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    I'd imagine looking at the charts that my location is east kerry/north cork. 150 m asl should also see some snow. We usually do here. I'd expect 2-3 cms . Hopefully.

    Looking at the high resolution models I think Kerry and West Cork might do better than a lot of places further north. This front's track takes it to them via a mostly sea track so less precipitation is lost. An element of that too for Cork city (but a dusting at best still realistically). At a bit of a loss though to understand why the Cork Airport TAF is better than Shannon's....


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Looking at the high resolution models I think Kerry and West Cork might do better than a lot of places further north. This front's track takes it to them via a mostly sea track so less precipitation is lost. An element of that too for Cork city (but a dusting at best still realistically). At a bit of a loss though to understand why the Cork Airport TAF is better than Shannon's....

    Look at Met Éireann twitter update. Shows front maintaining all the way to Cork City


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Sky split in two here. Solid clear the east, various levels of high cloud to the west and coming in from there. Whether this falls as wet sleet or freezing rain as the front passes through during the wee hours, it'll make for a very messy and potentially treacherous tomorrow morning out on the roads.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Looking at the high resolution models I think Kerry and West Cork might do better than a lot of places further north. This front's track takes it to them via a mostly sea track so less precipitation is lost. An element of that too for Cork city (but a dusting at best still realistically). At a bit of a loss though to understand why the Cork Airport TAF is better than Shannon's....

    Cork's altitude and the fact that Shannon is further west, in the semi-warm sector, and at sea level along an estuary.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Air temperature is 2.1c
    Dew point is 0.0c
    Wet bulb is 0.5c

    We will have to rely on cooling or evaporative cooling. I am not sure if the temperature will drop further.

    The wind is south easterly, calm.
    Temp will drop another half degree all things considered at darkness
    I'd say you'll be ok but its tight because even with a southwesterly, the air source is still the Atlantic and needs to travel over land that might not be cold enough

    My hunch is if it stays that direction possibly coming through cold west Tyrone, it will be,we'll see


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Cork's altitude and the fact that Shannon is further west, in the semi-warm sector, and at sea level along an estuary.

    And that too! I think rebel didn’t think front would give much precipitation in Cork


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    UKMO Updates

    Belfast Aldergrove
    Freezing Precipitation
    Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 14:28 UTC
    Valid from: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 00:00 UTC
    Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 02:00 UTC

    RAIN MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH PARKED AIRCRAFT, RUNWAYS AND TAXIWAYS. CLEAR ICE MAY FORM CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

    Snow
    Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 14:28 UTC
    Valid from: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 00:00 UTC
    Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 06:00 UTC

    SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD.SLIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2CM. SNOW TYPE WET. VISIBILITY MAY FALL BELOW 600M IN THE SNOWFALL, WITH A MINIMUM VISIBILITY OF 500M.

    Derry/Londonderry/Eglinton/EGAE/Wee airport up north, like
    Snow
    Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 11:32 UTC
    Valid from: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 21:00 UTC
    Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 00:00 UTC

    SLIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Cork Airport warning: light snow, 1-3 cm forecast, from 5 am to midday.
    EICK AD WRNG 02 VALID 070500/071200 SNOW FBL 1 to 3 CM FCST=


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Temp will drop another half degree all things considered at darkness
    I'd say you'll be ok but its tight because even with a southwesterly, the air source is still the Atlantic and needs to travel over land that might not be cold enough

    My hunch is if it stays that direction possibly coming through cold west Tyrone, it will be,we'll see

    The charts seem to forecast it falling below 0c here, but I am not convinced. It is falling very slowly.

    The only saving grace would be evaporative cooling.


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