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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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03-12-2019 08:53PM#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).
If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.
Thanks.
Looking quite windy along coasts mainly in the W, NW and N on Thurs and blustery overland. Probably gusting around 80 to 90 km/h on coasts and 60 to 70 km/h overland, possibly a bit more on higher ground.
Heavy rain in the NW and to a lesser extent in the W
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ECM 12Z looking as strong if not stronger on the latest run for Sunday with the strongest winds in the W, SW and strong overland as well .
This has a bit to play out yet but looking like large areas of LP feeding off each other driven by a very strong Jet creating a very large wind field which could produce storm conditions along the coasts, bit early to speculate how high the wind speeds will be overland but for the last couple of runs now the ECM hads been showing at least Orange warning levels and probably high at that.
Currently showing 100 to 130 km/h on coasts, up to 90 to 120 km overland more so coastal counties and 90 to 110km/h overland . Still just Weds but has locked on to this now for a few runs and the other models are starting to show stronger winds especially the ARPEGE.
Also of note is the duration of the high winds being shown, possibly gusting over 90 to 100km/h for 12 to 15hrs along with the higher gusts along W and SW coasts
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ICON 12Z showing the strong winds rising from later Sat evening and showing Kerry getting very strong winds on this run. This too was a jump up in wind speeds on the latest runs.
GFS windy on coasts but not as strong as the other models.
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Windy and blustery at times this week coming. Models showing strong wind potential towards Thurs /Fri
Looks very wet on Tuesday .
Very cold later Tuesday into Weds with wintry precipitation and also wintry precip. possible early Thurs in Northern counties. Very wet again on Thurs.
Wintry looking next weekend also.
Rough wet and cold week in general coming up.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »The Jet very strong towards the end of the week when strong winds are expected. Another one to watch
With a very strong jet and MTs forecast speculating high energy event around the Christmas period. I would not be surprised if we did get something historic after all the criticism of Met Eireanns warning mechanism.0 -
Milder as the fronts go through on Tuesday and then under a cooler air mass with temperatures dropping quickly and the EURO 4 showing plenty of wintry showers. ECM showing a small bit of accumulation for awhile on mountains and possibly the highest hills . Could be a lot of hail showers with Lightning possible, blustery showers, more so along Atlantic Coastal Counties.
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Looking quite windy along Atlantic coasts tomorrow evening into early Fri. The strong wind core showing up on the charts for Fri night looks to pass offshore to the S, still a bit windy in the W/ SW though.
The disturbance to the S of Ireland on Fri evening. Westerly airflow dragging in cold air mass late Fri early Sat. Temperatures Sat only about 3 to 7C
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ICON has intensified the winds for Weds with what looks like a wave whose pressure is falling on approach and during transit up along the W coast.
ECM 06Z stronger in the SW and onto S coasts but nothing extreme on this run, showing the same area of LP or wave much further out to the W and falling pressure also.
ARPEGE windy in the S
GFS weakest of the lot.
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ICON 18Z rowed back on the very strong winds, more like the ARPEGE 12Z now.
ECM 12Z eased back on the strong winds also. Looking like gusting 80 to 90 km/h on coasts and 60 to 80 km/h overland
Showing a lot of rain in the S and SE inot Thurs morning
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Meteorite58 wrote: »ICON has intensified the winds for Weds with what looks like a wave whose pressure is falling on approach and during transit up along the W coast..
That setup would not be good for Dublin Bay at high tide Wednesday night.0 -
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Deep are of LP close to Ireland around next Fri , deepening on approach. ECM not showing a huge wind field and the winds not affecting Ireland on this run but one to keep an eye on.
https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1206336133984116736?s=200 -
ECM has picked up the wind strength again for Weds on the 06Z showing the deepening area of LP move up along the W coast . Showing strong winds overland atm , gusting in general up around 100km/h in Munster . This is the kind of system that can sneak up and catch people out and produce unusually strong winds overland as the system deepens close to land aided by the Jet.
ARPEGE and ICON have also moved up the wind speeds as have the American models.
Is this going to get stronger ?
My own guess ....... possible.
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ECM 12Z eased off on wind speeds again. More like gusting up around 80 to 90 km/h winds overland, bit higher on some coasts gusting up around 100 km/h perhaps. Bit to go yet on this one.
EURO 4 coming into view,
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This discussion has been closed.
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