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Meteorite58 · 01-12-2019, 11:41

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A bit off yet and looking very complex so very unreliable in terms of how this will look and what track and strength it will take but signs of a rapidly deepening area of LP sweeping close to or across Ireland next Sunday. Currently shows it to be very windy or stormy during the day for parts of the country, probably more so in the Western half .

On the current run showing pressure dropping 11 hPa in 6 hrs from 0.00 to 06.00 and dropping 15 hPa from 0.00 to 12.00. Strong Jet aiding the development.

All subject to change but one to watch.

nacho libre · 01-12-2019, 14:24

Yes the jetstream profile i posted last week did indicate any settled spell would be shortlived, as the jestream is now in a position to send us a conveyor belt of low pressure systems by late next week. The deep low pressure system modelled for next weekend may likely track further north than currently depicted, so it maybe windy as opposed to stormy. Either way it will be unsettled.

Hopefully by the second week of December the jetstream decides to goes on holiday to Casablanca, and we get more cold and settled weather for a while.

pauldry · 02-12-2019, 10:53

GFS shows colder pattern emerging around 10th December.

Probably not cold enough for all out snow but wintry showers aplenty.

Possibly too early to give the White Christmas I was pinning my hopes on as even one snow shower in that mix would count.

**Gonzo** · 02-12-2019, 19:10

11th to 14th of December do look fairly chilly, probably a mix of cold rain, sleet and snow showers over high ground and areas well inland, mainly across the north. As usual this will probably get more downgraded as we get closer to the time. At least it's something to keep an eye on for the time being.

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2019, 20:46

Yeah the ECM, GFS and GEM all showing mainly cooler air mass again from Sunday for a number of days apart from a possible brief frontal passage around Monday .UKMO just goes to Sunday but looking cool then also.

Sunday not showing it as windy as yesterday mornings ECM run. More around the SW on the latest 12Z run but nothing out of the ordinary showing up for now. Would probably feel quite cool in a showery NW'ly wind.

As most of the weather out to +240 is sourced from the Atlantic , the long range rainfall accumulations are showing up mainly along Atlantic coastal counties.

**Gonzo** · 02-12-2019, 21:11

Gav's latest Christmas forecast is an interesting one. Shows next weeks potential cold spell. He then goes into the Christmas to New Year period and it is showing severe if not brutal cold bringing a long fetch of winds in from the east as well as an Atlantic/easterly battleground. That is so far away it's not worth even getting excited about as it will probably be very different in reality, but it makes for fun viewing.

However, the models continue to show chances of developing proper cold at some stage. Hopefully we will get it at some point and not suffer the massive upsets of last winter.

Meteorite58 · 03-12-2019, 08:54

Models keeping the next coldspell going well into next week. Looks like having potential for wintry precipitation at times.

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2019, 10:16

Temperature anomaly forecast from the latest GFS.

Long way off of course, but it does seem to be in keeping with the recent trend over the last couple of months for the eastern (or European) side of the Arctic to cool down relatively quickly and spill down over N/NW Europe. SST's up in that general region are still very warm though, but this recent pattern may have helped to cool then down a bit and maybe, just maybe, this will benefit us in the longer term and help bring us some of those 'northerlies of old' (as Nacho eloquently put recently) as the Winter wears on.

Villain · 03-12-2019, 11:02

The trend is there for colder weather next week but the details are far from nailed, the latest 06z GFS will have the Southeast of England getting all sorts of excited for next week! Remember this is FI so it will change before then, just a question of what way it changes

**Gonzo** · 03-12-2019, 11:40

latest gfs runs show a few more dryish days to go, followed by a brief spells of mild and cool interludes.The precipitation comes back from the 6th or 7th of December, but thankfully it doesn't look nearly as bad as the deluges of recent months. Temperatures also falling right back from the 9th to 14th of December. This could cause much of the precipitation to fall as sleet, hail or even wet snow at times. I think coastal areas will still be in for cold rain rather than anything wintry, also these charts could trend dryer as we get closer to the cold spell.

As said above they could be in for some real fun in many parts of England next week, particularly south-east England, but Ireland may not be spared of seeing a few flakes either. This chart is 10 days away so will change alot between now and then.

Milder air returns from the Atlantic around the 15th of December, however the jet stream looks to be staying to our south ever so slightly, leaving us on a cooler side. Could possibly be another attack from the north after this but the charts don't go that far.

squarecircles · 03-12-2019, 12:13

squarecircles · 03-12-2019, 12:17

Theres a great buzz over on the netweather forum this morning,would really put you in the festive spirit.

strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

i suppose at the end of the day will be watching on as they get buried
in it up to their knees over yonder and They stole all our potatoes.tut

waves stick in air* in begrudging pessimistic bitter irish way.

Kamili · 03-12-2019, 12:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by squarecircles

strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

I think most are expecting it to dissolve as it has in previous years...

SeaBreezes · 03-12-2019, 12:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by squarecircles

Theres a great buzz over on the netweather forum this morning,would really put you in the festive spirit.

strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

i suppose at the end of the day will be watching on as they get buried
in it up to their knees over yonder and They stole all our potatoes.tut

waves stick in air* in begrudging pessimistic bitter irish way.

Waiting until its 3 days to go... too many times it all disappears at 72 hours..

**Gonzo** · 03-12-2019, 13:09

This is still too far away to pin down anything as of now. The only thing we are certain of is that it will be colder. I suspect as time gets closer this may evolve into a dryer scene with showers peppering the north and north-west and dying out as they move south-eastwards. Usual places could see some flakes from this scenario but I wouldn't expect much in eastern or southern areas.

For eastern areas we would really need a low sinking southwards driving in north-east winds as it does so, but even if that happened, we would most likely see cold rain or sleet within 40 miles of the Irish sea. The set up looks cold, but still not cold enough for any real snowy event.

Right now I don't think were there yet for anything too exciting, but will keep a close eye on how this evolves over the next week.

01-12-2019, 11:41	#1
Meteorite58 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 9,174 Adverts \| Friends	FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST Mod Note This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward. If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved Thanks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ A bit off yet and looking very complex so very unreliable in terms of how this will look and what track and strength it will take but signs of a rapidly deepening area of LP sweeping close to or across Ireland next Sunday. Currently shows it to be very windy or stormy during the day for parts of the country, probably more so in the Western half . On the current run showing pressure dropping 11 hPa in 6 hrs from 0.00 to 06.00 and dropping 15 hPa from 0.00 to 12.00. Strong Jet aiding the development. All subject to change but one to watch. Last edited by Meteorite58; 01-12-2019 at 11:47.

01-12-2019, 14:24	#2
nacho libre Registered User Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 14,056 Adverts \| Friends	Yes the jetstream profile i posted last week did indicate any settled spell would be shortlived, as the jestream is now in a position to send us a conveyor belt of low pressure systems by late next week. The deep low pressure system modelled for next weekend may likely track further north than currently depicted, so it maybe windy as opposed to stormy. Either way it will be unsettled. Hopefully by the second week of December the jetstream decides to goes on holiday to Casablanca, and we get more cold and settled weather for a while. Last edited by nacho libre; 02-12-2019 at 16:01.

03-12-2019, 12:17	#12
squarecircles Registered User Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,637 Adverts \| Friends	Theres a great buzz over on the netweather forum this morning,would really put you in the festive spirit. strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view. i suppose at the end of the day will be watching on as they get buried in it up to their knees over yonder and They stole all our potatoes.tut waves stick in air* in begrudging pessimistic bitter irish way. Last edited by squarecircles; 03-12-2019 at 12:46.

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02-12-2019, 10:53	#3
pauldry Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 4,791 Adverts \| Friends	GFS shows colder pattern emerging around 10th December. Probably not cold enough for all out snow but wintry showers aplenty. Possibly too early to give the White Christmas I was pinning my hopes on as even one snow shower in that mix would count.

02-12-2019, 19:10	#4
Gonzo Moderator Join Date: Aug 1999 Posts: 13,353 Adverts \| Friends Mod: Weather, ZTest	11th to 14th of December do look fairly chilly, probably a mix of cold rain, sleet and snow showers over high ground and areas well inland, mainly across the north. As usual this will probably get more downgraded as we get closer to the time. At least it's something to keep an eye on for the time being.

02-12-2019, 20:46	#5
Meteorite58 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 9,174 Adverts \| Friends	Yeah the ECM, GFS and GEM all showing mainly cooler air mass again from Sunday for a number of days apart from a possible brief frontal passage around Monday .UKMO just goes to Sunday but looking cool then also. Sunday not showing it as windy as yesterday mornings ECM run. More around the SW on the latest 12Z run but nothing out of the ordinary showing up for now. Would probably feel quite cool in a showery NW'ly wind. As most of the weather out to +240 is sourced from the Atlantic , the long range rainfall accumulations are showing up mainly along Atlantic coastal counties.

02-12-2019, 21:11	#6
Gonzo Moderator Join Date: Aug 1999 Posts: 13,353 Adverts \| Friends Mod: Weather, ZTest	Gav's latest Christmas forecast is an interesting one. Shows next weeks potential cold spell. He then goes into the Christmas to New Year period and it is showing severe if not brutal cold bringing a long fetch of winds in from the east as well as an Atlantic/easterly battleground. That is so far away it's not worth even getting excited about as it will probably be very different in reality, but it makes for fun viewing. However, the models continue to show chances of developing proper cold at some stage. Hopefully we will get it at some point and not suffer the massive upsets of last winter.

03-12-2019, 08:54	#7
Meteorite58 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 9,174 Adverts \| Friends	Models keeping the next coldspell going well into next week. Looks like having potential for wintry precipitation at times.

03-12-2019, 10:16	#8
Oneiric 3 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 4,926 Adverts \| Friends	Temperature anomaly forecast from the latest GFS. Long way off of course, but it does seem to be in keeping with the recent trend over the last couple of months for the eastern (or European) side of the Arctic to cool down relatively quickly and spill down over N/NW Europe. SST's up in that general region are still very warm though, but this recent pattern may have helped to cool then down a bit and maybe, just maybe, this will benefit us in the longer term and help bring us some of those 'northerlies of old' (as Nacho eloquently put recently) as the Winter wears on.

03-12-2019, 11:02	#9
Villain Registered User Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 15,480 Adverts \| Friends	The trend is there for colder weather next week but the details are far from nailed, the latest 06z GFS will have the Southeast of England getting all sorts of excited for next week! Remember this is FI so it will change before then, just a question of what way it changes

03-12-2019, 11:40	#10
Gonzo Moderator Join Date: Aug 1999 Posts: 13,353 Adverts \| Friends Mod: Weather, ZTest	latest gfs runs show a few more dryish days to go, followed by a brief spells of mild and cool interludes.The precipitation comes back from the 6th or 7th of December, but thankfully it doesn't look nearly as bad as the deluges of recent months. Temperatures also falling right back from the 9th to 14th of December. This could cause much of the precipitation to fall as sleet, hail or even wet snow at times. I think coastal areas will still be in for cold rain rather than anything wintry, also these charts could trend dryer as we get closer to the cold spell. As said above they could be in for some real fun in many parts of England next week, particularly south-east England, but Ireland may not be spared of seeing a few flakes either. This chart is 10 days away so will change alot between now and then. Milder air returns from the Atlantic around the 15th of December, however the jet stream looks to be staying to our south ever so slightly, leaving us on a cooler side. Could possibly be another attack from the north after this but the charts don't go that far.

03-12-2019, 12:13	#11
squarecircles Registered User Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,637 Adverts \| Friends

03-12-2019, 13:09	#15
Gonzo Moderator Join Date: Aug 1999 Posts: 13,353 Adverts \| Friends Mod: Weather, ZTest	This is still too far away to pin down anything as of now. The only thing we are certain of is that it will be colder. I suspect as time gets closer this may evolve into a dryer scene with showers peppering the north and north-west and dying out as they move south-eastwards. Usual places could see some flakes from this scenario but I wouldn't expect much in eastern or southern areas. For eastern areas we would really need a low sinking southwards driving in north-east winds as it does so, but even if that happened, we would most likely see cold rain or sleet within 40 miles of the Irish sea. The set up looks cold, but still not cold enough for any real snowy event. Right now I don't think were there yet for anything too exciting, but will keep a close eye on how this evolves over the next week.